Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ggr]

Of course everyone in Georgia who was currently considering an EV knew that the incentive was about to go away. So they probably ordered a few months early, and dried up the market for a few months. But I'm prepared to bet that by early next year the sales will be back pretty much where they were.

 

[Näky]

About EV transition here in Finland.
Service center (first) from spring/summer 2015. 2 supercharges from spring/summer 2015, both within 100 miles from capital. Delivery times have been from 3 to 5 months this year. No tax incentives for privately-owned cars, incentives for company cars have ended earlier this year. Tesla Model S registrations for this years are already over 10% in it's price group (€85 000-€160 000).
I can call that beginning of transition.

 

[Scott Ales]

With a 200+ mile range $35k EV I can sell 90% of the US buyers to transition. Just by presenting the various facts and benefits.

Tesla is building the foundation and enduring the current harassment to ensure a slam dunk with the Model 3.

I won't bore you with an entire pitch, but here is where I typically like to start.

* How about you let me convert all your household appliances to gasoline power?
Buyer - LOL
* Why are you laughing?

Then I refute every claim presented after that. Which frankly is pretty simple. Should they become centered on any one minute detail that is critical to them I move to the globe being a huge fuel tank.

* It's going to run out someday, right?
Buyer - I suppose
* Do you like sending our soldiers and your money to the Middle East?
* Is it worth any inconvenience at all to avoid those two things?

The only true objection is placement of chargers and diversion to get to them. The beauty is, every passing month there are significant advances in all areas to be presented. By the time we get to the M3 launch it will be a tidal wave. If the Bolt, Faraday Future, Google car, or any other significant contenders come along ICE will be on ICE! The only issue we'll have are people waiting to get one for sticker price. Early owners will be approached on the street to sell their M3 for a significant profit.

It's really exciting to be in the middle of it all. Seeing my only child's saving account increase over the last few years is very cool too! What a great example for him to be a part of.

I am very thankful for the legacy the entire Tesla team has created.

Don't get me wrong, I love me some good old fashion ICE HP and noise once in a while. But I enjoy that like a fine meal or wine. On rare and special occasions to celebrate the old days!

Here is a very unique boat we offered for sale a few years ago. I'm the guy with the fire extinguisher. Something you don't need with an EV at start-up!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axIJ2tsye_I

 

[Scott Ales]

About the most reasonably written article I have seen to date...

Wall Street is deeply confused about Tesla - Business Insider

 

[Drax7]

Electracity is a diehard BMW fan, so what's a diehard BMW fan doing on a Tesla forum? This tells me that Tesla is doing all the right things. You'll never see me on a BMW or Mercedes forum, even though I my views of those cars are quite clownish, I wouldn't bother wasting my valuable time clowning on clowns.

one of the many merchants of FUD daring to think they can outsmart Elon and us investors.

 

[MitchJi]

I really hope this is a joke. With less than 2% of automobile sales being EVs, no one could possibly say the world is transitioning to EVs. I hope it happens, and I believe it will one day, but, we're NOWHERE CLOSE to transitioning at this point...

You seem to be confused. I didn't say that the transition is complete. But it has progressed to the point that many of us can see the writing on the wall.

On a related topic, in many ways BMW has done a fantastic job with the i3. But they clearly have a different strategy than Tesla. BMW's strategy is based on the the assumption that batteries are too expensive to be practical for long range EV's. So the i3 has a $3.8k range extender that doubles the range of the 20kWh pack.

Tesla's strategy is to drive down the cost of batteries to the point where EV's with a 250 mile range cost less to produce than comparable ICE's. The only remaining question is if Tesla meets that goal in 2017 or 2020. They are clearly already beyond the point where it makes sense to sell a 20kWh range extender for almost $4k.

I think a substantial percentage of the members of this forum believe that BMW is incapable of building a compelling EV. I think that the question is how long will it take them to have the vision to do it.

 

[electracity]

one of the many merchants of FUD daring to think they can outsmart Elon and us investors.

Every good investor has "UD". As far as fear, I never invest so much in a single stock to encounter that emotion.

Fanboi's, however, can be 100% in.

I have no idea why being interested in BMW's carbon fiber on aluminum makes me a particular fan of that company.

 

[chickensevil]

I guess Georgia and California are very different places. Here in California I see at least 20 to 30 EV's per day here in Santa Barbara area. When I go to LA, there are so many I can't possibly keep count. Nearly every last person I know wants an EV but are waiting for Model 3, Leaf 2, or Bolt. I think in 2 or 3 years, at least here in California, anyone shopping for a new car will seriously consider an EV.

As far as your comments about chargers, etc. I put on 30,000 miles per year and go anywhere in the western states I want. rarely have to use anything other than a Supercharger.

Yep...different worlds Georgia and California.

It's not just CA and the western states. The roads between DC - NY - Chicago are pretty well blanketed as well. It is hard to find places worth going that isn't covered by a Supercharger.

 

[AudubonB]

I hope you wouldn't mind, chicken, editing the above to read something like "...places along that corridor worth going to...". The way it presently reads, you really are snubbing the finest parts of this continent, badly.

 

[Papafox]

In this CNBC interview, Billionaire investor Ron Baron predicts that TSLA will quadruple in value during the next five years. Let's see... that's 300% growth divided by 5 = approx. 60% price appreciation/year. He explains his valuation here:

"Five hundred thousand cars a year in 2020 ... that's a business of $35 billion or $40 billion a year in revenue. Say they make $6 billion of operating profit before they spend to make themselves grow larger. That means that's probably worth $120 billion [in market cap]. Now market value is about $30 billion, so it's quadruple in five years," he said.

Now that Elon has said that Model 3 will have the driving feel for a Model S, I can safely assume that demand will exist for building at least 500,000 Teslas a year by 2020. Comments?

 

[Cattledog]

In this CNBC interview, Billionaire investor Ron Baron predicts that TSLA will quadruple in value during the next five years. Let's see... that's 300% growth divided by 5 = approx. 60% price appreciation/year. He explains his valuation here:

"Five hundred thousand cars a year in 2020 ... that's a business of $35 billion or $40 billion a year in revenue. Say they make $6 billion of operating profit before they spend to make themselves grow larger. That means that's probably worth $120 billion [in market cap]. Now market value is about $30 billion, so it's quadruple in five years," he said.

Now that Elon has said that Model 3 will have the driving feel for a Model S, I can safely assume that demand will exist for building at least 500,000 Teslas a year by 2020. Comments?

I feel really confident that Model 3 and Model Y together will represent 400K cars/year. That leaves 100K/year for S and X. After 2020 you have the new roadster and a pickup truck. Roadster will be a halo car, maybe 10K sold, 0-60 in under 2.2 seconds. The pick-up truck will be a success but will have to overcome the bubba bias to ICE. Maybe by 2020 that won't be so large.

Then you have stationary storage.

Then you have autonomous driving subscription sales (peopleless Teslas getting you like Uber).

Then you have a chance for data sales (maps), perhaps Tesla sells their own auto insurance because they see how much money insurance companies make on their super safe cars, Tesla lifestyle stuff that will emerge as a 8-9 figure cottage industry, etc.

Then you have all the stuff they haven't told us about (cards under the table) and stuff they haven't invented yet (because they're pretty smart).

So $120B could be a bargain in 2020 with a view forward.

 

[chickensevil]

I hope you wouldn't mind, chicken, editing the above to read something like "...places along that corridor worth going to...". The way it presently reads, you really are snubbing the finest parts of this continent, badly.

Not understanding what you wanted it refrased to but I meant what I said... Mostly. Looking at the map (to refresh my memory) you can get through just superchargers to much of Pennsylvania, all of OH, much of IN and IL, NJ and NY are pretty well covered at this point (except maybe the black road far reaches of NY. DC, MD, and DE well covered with VA being at least good enough to get to the ski slopes now although more is certainly planned along 81.

Are there places in each of those states that would be " out of reach" by supercharging? Most likely... But unless you happen to be the one person who lives in the middle of nowhere in those states, or you just really feel like taking a drive on tiny 2 lane county roads sometimes not even paved roads, then I think I still stand by my comment.

I'm not saying mission accomplished here, I'm just saying that refusal to buy the car if you live in or near most of the major cities in the North East, over lack of charging, it is a silly and practically non-existant concern.

Where I have had trouble is those who families/relatives in the southern states since the south is still pretty neglected (except FL, but depending on who you ask, FL isn't "the south" )

 

[Krugerrand]

About EV transition here in Finland.
Service center (first) from spring/summer 2015. 2 supercharges from spring/summer 2015, both within 100 miles from capital. Delivery times have been from 3 to 5 months this year. No tax incentives for privately-owned cars, incentives for company cars have ended earlier this year. Tesla Model S registrations for this years are already over 10% in it's price group (€85 000-€160 000).
I can call that beginning of transition.

Thanks for that information.

- - - Updated - - -

With a 200+ mile range $35k EV I can sell 90% of the US buyers to transition.

I believe you could and without having to break a sweat. The lightbulb just needs to be turned on for people.

 

[sundaymorning]

Every good investor has "UD". As far as fear, I never invest so much in a single stock to encounter that emotion.

Fanboi's, however, can be 100% in.

I have no idea why being interested in BMW's carbon fiber on aluminum makes me a particular fan of that company.

To be honest, many members on this forum are early adopters, so by extension being called "fanboys" isn't so offensive. Many of us fanboys have been making money hand over fist with Tesla, we call those fanboys "teslanaires," investors who comes here strive to be the next teslanaire.. what is your motive? Clown, bash or are you offering that BMW's carbon fiber technology will outsell Tesla's EV technology and drive train?

Many investors have been here since day 1 with Tesla, we've read most of the negative articles and heard enough whispers of "the next Tesla killers" to the point where we just laugh. You can call us cocky if you want, but until we see the market offer a real EV competitor, your argument will remain as weak as a BMW. Keep it coming, I really do enjoy your illogical thought, it reassures me that my investment is in the right company.

 

[AudubonB]

Not understanding what you wanted it refrased to but I meant what I said... Mostly.

It's not worth making a very big deal over - my little point is that your first post made it sound as though the other states aren't worth driving in - i.e., those outside the Pacific corridor and NY<--->Chicago. It's strictly in the way you wrote it, not in what you meant, as your latter post clarifies.

 

[Johan]

Scott Ales: your first argument; "let me convert all your household appliances to gasoline" made me think of this EV commercial (the ad agency obviously had the same thought as you, to show how little sense gasoline cars make now that EVs exist for real):

Nissan LEAF: Gas Powered Everything commercial - YouTube

 

[madodel]

Not understanding what you wanted it refrased to but I meant what I said... Mostly. Looking at the map (to refresh my memory) you can get through just superchargers to much of Pennsylvania, all of OH, much of IN and IL, NJ and NY are pretty well covered at this point (except maybe the black road far reaches of NY. DC, MD, and DE well covered with VA being at least good enough to get to the ski slopes now although more is certainly planned along 81.

Until they put a Supercharger in central PA you can not cross the state of Pennsylvania relying on SCs. They need to put them along Route 80 and The PA Turnpike. They still have not yet built the proposed ones in Allentown and Tannersville (The Eastern end of Route 80). Otherwise you either have to go south through Maryland or use third party chargers. or destination chargers where you have to leave the car for hours to get fully charged.

 

[30seconds]

To be honest, many members on this forum are early adopters, so by extension being called "fanboys" isn't so offensive. Many of us fanboys have been making money hand over fist with Tesla, we call those fanboys "teslanaires," investors who comes here strive to be the next teslanaire.. what is your motive? Clown, bash or are you offering that BMW's carbon fiber technology will outsell Tesla's EV technology and drive train?

Many investors have been here since day 1 with Tesla, we've read most of the negative articles and heard enough whispers of "the next Tesla killers" to the point where we just laugh. You can call us cocky if you want, but until we see the market offer a real EV competitor, your argument will remain as weak as a BMW. Keep it coming, I really do enjoy your illogical thought, it reassures me that my investment is in the right company.

Many of these fanboys are engineers, scientists and other super technical types who can also look at related issues such as climate change, transition to low cost solar and wind energy, inefficient and outdated power grid, software, sensors, and, yes, finance. The way I look at it this is a pretty informed set of fanboys and girls.

 

[mejojo]

Until they put a Supercharger in central PA you can not cross the state of Pennsylvania relying on SCs. They need to put them along Route 80 and The PA Turnpike. They still have not yet built the proposed ones in Allentown and Tannersville (The Eastern end of Route 80). Otherwise you either have to go south through Maryland or use third party chargers. or destination chargers where you have to leave the car for hours to get fully charged.

You aren't expecting full maturity of a nationwide infrastructure in 3 years, are you? I don't know for a fact, but I suspect if PA had been more amenable to Tesla sales and growth, the supercharger situation would look a little different than it does now.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

In this CNBC interview, Billionaire investor Ron Baron predicts that TSLA will quadruple in value during the next five years. Let's see... that's 300% growth divided by 5 = approx. 60% price appreciation/year. He explains his valuation here:

"Five hundred thousand cars a year in 2020 ... that's a business of $35 billion or $40 billion a year in revenue. Say they make $6 billion of operating profit before they spend to make themselves grow larger. That means that's probably worth $120 billion [in market cap]. Now market value is about $30 billion, so it's quadruple in five years," he said.

Now that Elon has said that Model 3 will have the driving feel for a Model S, I can safely assume that demand will exist for building at least 500,000 Teslas a year by 2020. Comments?

My very hasty back-of-napkin math:

Assuming a mix of:
40k Model S @ ASP of 90k/year = 3.6B revenue
60k Model X @ ASP of 95k/year = 5.7B revenue
400k Model 3 @ ASP of 45k/year = 18.0B revenue
Grand total of 27.3B from automotive products. I'm guessing about 5B in operating profit or 100B in market cap from automotive products alone by 2020.

The "wild card" is energy storage products.

I'm a car guy, and I don't know much about the demand from home, business, and utility industry for stationary storage. The big PowerPack product certainly seems like it could be a winner, and revolutionize electric grid management. How much of this Tesla can sell, and at what profit margin, I haven't got a clue.

In the 2020-2025 time frame, I think it's reasonable to expect:
Model "Y", a Model 3 derived CUV that competes against compact crossovers like Honda CR-V and Subaru Forester
Next-Generation Roadster
Pickup Truck
Utility Van

There's just a lot of fog in making future predictions, especially with capital intensive and complicated projects. I would say the potential over the next 5-10 years is incredible, but I also think the road will be quite rocky.