Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Here is a garbage op-ed piece that was just published, that doesn't appear to name the author. Perhaps to prevent Senator Whitehouse from calling the person out? I wasn't aware the WSJ allowed people to publish anonymous op-ed articles.

Prosecuting Climate Dissent - WSJ

The "op-ed" is a response to this excellent news.

Exxon Mobil Gets Subpoena From N.Y. Regarding Climate-Change Research - WSJ

 

[RobStark]

Model "Y", a Model 3 derived CUV that competes against compact crossovers like Honda CR-V and Subaru Forester

No more so than the Model S competes with the Toyota Avalon and Nissan Maxima.

Main targets for Model Y are BMW x3,Audi Q5 and , Lexus NX.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

No more so than the Model S competes with the Toyota Avalon and Nissan Maxima.

Main targets for Model Y are BMW x3,Audi Q5 and , Lexus NX.

My thought on this is that Model S converted more than just BMW 5-series and Mercedes S-class buyers. From browsing the Model S forum here over the years, I noted that many buyers did stretch to get a Model S even if their previous rides were on the level of a Honda Accord. Also, consider that the CR-V is not exactly an inexpensive vehicle. The most common mid-level EX AWD trim already has an MSRP of just over 27k, and the top level Touring AWD has an MSRP of 33k. Add in fuel costs, and a Model Y at 40k starts to look a lot more competitive.

On paper, the Model "Y" competes against luxury cars in the same class, but my guess is that in real world sales, it is going to exert pressure on mainstream purchases too. Similarly, I expect Model 3 to convert some former Accord and Camry buyers.

 

[madodel]

You aren't expecting full maturity of a nationwide infrastructure in 3 years, are you? I don't know for a fact, but I suspect if PA had been more amenable to Tesla sales and growth, the supercharger situation would look a little different than it does now.

I certainly expect a SuperCharger in the middle of the state so people can cross from one side to the other. I hear it is coming so I'm not worried. My comment was in response to chickensevil saying that one can get to much of PA using SCs. You can if you first charge up in surrounding states, but not within PA.

 

[McMuggets]

I couldn't go back to find Electricity's post about batteries not being a big deal later on.... but just wanted to state that batteries will be the most important factor. The architecture of the Tesla battery pack is completely different from what any EV or EV-Gas car has now. In many ways it is the most advanced and will remain so as the Gigafactory begins production. As Tesla achieves economies of scale as well as technological improvements in efficiency and charge capacity, their batteries will be undisputed. It is important to remember that the worlds biggest consumer of Lithium Batteries currently is Tesla... yes, this is true... look it up. That's only on making 40-50K vehicles a year (projected). So in addition to being the biggest consumer of lithium batteries, they will be the biggest producer of lithium batteries. To say "batteries aren't going to be as important" is completely missing the point, whether you are a TSLA bull or bear.

Tesla is a car company, a technology company, a autopilot mapping company, and a battery company. One day, we will see some electric VW's (if they survive), BMW's, Mercedes, Hondas, etc. zipping around on TESLA-made batteries. Why? Because they will be the cheapest, best and most reliable batteries for cars. Why build your owninferior battery tech and put all the R&D into it when you can just buy them pre-packed by the worlds biggest battery manufacturer? While you are at it, why don't you just purchase TSLA drive-units too, since they reliably will run for 1 million miles. By the way, Supercharger enabled for a subscription fee per kWh. Free for Tesla Model S owners forever of course. Oh, and one last thing... did you want to put our Tesla Autopilot maps into your vehicles for a subscription fee?

Ron Baron was saying the value could go 4x based on car production alone. The rest that I've mentioned above is just gravy.

 

[electracity]

I couldn't go back to find Electricity's post about batteries not being a big deal later on.... but just wanted to state that batteries will be the most important factor. The architecture of the Tesla battery pack is completely different from what any EV or EV-Gas car has now. In many ways it is the most advanced and will remain so as the Gigafactory begins production. As Tesla achieves economies of scale as well as technological improvements in efficiency and charge capacity, their batteries will be undisputed. It is important to remember that the worlds biggest consumer of Lithium Batteries currently is Tesla... yes, this is true... look it up. That's only on making 40-50K vehicles a year (projected). So in addition to being the biggest consumer of lithium batteries, they will be the biggest producer of lithium batteries. To say "batteries aren't going to be as important" is completely missing the point, whether you are a TSLA bull or bear.

Tesla is a car company, a technology company, a autopilot mapping company, and a battery company. One day, we will see some electric VW's (if they survive), BMW's, Mercedes, Hondas, etc. zipping around on TESLA-made batteries. Why? Because they will be the cheapest, best and most reliable batteries for cars. Why build your owninferior battery tech and put all the R&D into it when you can just buy them pre-packed by the worlds biggest battery manufacturer? While you are at it, why don't you just purchase TSLA drive-units too, since they reliably will run for 1 million miles. By the way, Supercharger enabled for a subscription fee per kWh. Free for Tesla Model S owners forever of course. Oh, and one last thing... did you want to put our Tesla Autopilot maps into your vehicles for a subscription fee?

Ron Baron was saying the value could go 4x based on car production alone. The rest that I've mentioned above is just gravy.

So Tesla is going to dominate the EV battery market at huge scale. Name another product where a single company has held that position in the market.

 

[bh1783]

Apple. They receive 90% of profits in the smartphone market.

 

[McMuggets]

So Tesla is going to dominate the EV battery market at huge scale. Name another product where a single company has held that position in the market.

Not sure exactly what your question is. There is no other product where a single company has held a dominant position in EV Batteries. EV's are still new, and Tesla is going to become the biggest battery maker in the world, period. How is that not going to dominate?

If you are asking about other industries... sure:

1. Intel (microprocessors)
2. Microsoft (operating systems)
3. Google (search and organizing the world's data)
4. Apple (personal computers)
5. Dupont (pretty much every chemical that is needed to make plastics)
6. Corning (the glass on pretty much everything, including that smart phone you are probably viewing this on)
7. Etc etc etc.

Basically, when you are going to more than double the entire world's battery production, you automatically become the dominant battery maker. And if there is an EV market, people are going to be buying batteries from you or you will be using them for the energy storage market, or you'll be using them in your own cars that you are making. Now, I did not say they will dominate it "forever", but they have a huge head start. Kind of like how Intel had a huge headstart in microprocessors. Or Nvidia (who had a huge head start and also is still doing really really well) with GPU's.

It is important to realize that the way batteries are made now is kind of ridiculous. You have lithium coming mainly from South America, and then it is shipped somewhere to be refined further and repackaged, then that is shipped again to be rolled into batteries, then that is shipped again to companies who need these batteries. Probably more steps than this. In the end that one lithium molecule has done enough travelling to circle the Earth a few times. The Tesla Gigafactory is literally going to have lithium coming from the mines in Nevada straight to the Gigafactory, and out come the batteries. This is all verifiable by watching this video interview with Baron Capital: Elon Musk interview with billionaire investment legend Ron Baron (11.6.15) - YouTube

Now it's your turn. Name me another company who is going to be able to make as many batteries yearly as the Gigafactory will make? Moreover, as many EV batteries with current energy density and performance architecture as Tesla's. LG Chem hasn't even done site selection....

 

[mmd]

Basically, when you are going to more than double the entire world's battery production, you automatically become the dominant battery maker.

This is all verifiable by watching this video interview with Baron Capital: Elon Musk interview with billionaire investment legend Ron Baron (11.6.15) - YouTube

Sorry, but doubling 2014's world battery output in 2020 or 2025 doesn't make Tesla the dominant player at that time. You can't assume that every other competitor sits still during those years, particularly if the market grows. And then, there are the massive investments needed for such growth. So far, Tesla has built like 15% of the originally proposed Gigafactory.

For the latest battery market share, you can check this link. Jose has done a good job on this one. If anything, we see BYD growing over 100% from last year. BYD also has the same advantages you mention in your post: local raw materials and factory. It even uses its own batteries in solar+storage, and its own cars and buses.
EV Sales: Batteries - September 2015

But if your investment thesis is to take Ron Baron's words as gospel, then any analysis or argument is useless for you. You can just keep your faith and hope it becomes true. It is certainly possible that someday Tesla becomes the leader, but it's not a given at this time.

 

[AudubonB]

I cannot tell if Electracity was headed in this direction, but it might not be in Tesla's interest to remain for long as the dominant supplier.

Anti-competitive behavior; monopoly power; misuse of market position - all these variations on the same theme have come to haunt, cripple or topple many entities over many years. Usually with justification, but not always. Regardless, uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.

Best is to take Mr Musk's word at face value: his mission is to electrify the world's transportation sector, not to dominate that sector. As such, he would be at least as happy to have others share the burden of the transformation, probably happier, than if Tesla - in the long run - has to do it itself.

 

[Grendal]

Sorry, but doubling 2014's world battery output in 2020 or 2025 doesn't make Tesla the dominant player at that time. You can't assume that every other competitor sits still during those years, particularly if the market grows. And then, there are the massive investments needed for such growth. So far, Tesla has built like 15% of the originally proposed Gigafactory.

As long as the Model 3 is the success that Tesla thinks it will be they will definitely open up a second battery gigafactory. It's been mentioned more than once by Elon and J.B.

 

[techmaven]

Sorry, but doubling 2014's world battery output in 2020 or 2025 doesn't make Tesla the dominant player at that time. You can't assume that every other competitor sits still during those years, particularly if the market grows. And then, there are the massive investments needed for such growth. So far, Tesla has built like 15% of the originally proposed Gigafactory.

For the latest battery market share, you can check this link. Jose has done a good job on this one. If anything, we see BYD growing over 100% from last year. BYD also has the same advantages you mention in your post: local raw materials and factory. It even uses its own batteries in solar+storage, and its own cars and buses.
EV Sales: Batteries - September 2015

BYD builds LiFePO4 batteries. That's not leading anything anywhere. Further, that 100% growth is from 461 mWh to 1.1GWh (annualized). The first phase of the Tesla Gigafactory is expected at around 7 GWh. That's on top of the roughly 4 GWh that Panasonic is pumping out for Tesla in 2015 which is ramping to about 6 GWh for 2016. Each phase of the Gigafactory is roughly another 7 GWh, so BYD has quite a ways to go, both in scale and in chemistry.

The other way to look at it is the money being spent on expansion. Go check the amounts listed for the various manufacturers and you all can then make up your own minds where everyone is going to be in 2-3 years.

 

[FluxCap]

BYD builds LiFePO4 batteries. That's not leading anything anywhere. Further, that 100% growth is from 461 mWh to 1.1GWh (annualized). The first phase of the Tesla Gigafactory is expected at around 7 GWh. That's on top of the roughly 4 GWh that Panasonic is pumping out for Tesla in 2015 which is ramping to about 6 GWh for 2016. Each phase of the Gigafactory is roughly another 7 GWh, so BYD has quite a ways to go, both in scale and in chemistry.

The other way to look at it is the money being spent on expansion. Go check the amounts listed for the various manufacturers and you all can then make up your own minds where everyone is going to be in 2-3 years.

This.

Assuming the tech didn't suck, Elon would love it if an automaker partnered with BYD/LG Chem/anyone else to make a $5billion / Gigafactory-level commitment to EV's to grow the market, but they haven't. So, Tesla is pretty much it for at least the next 5 years, sadly. The competition just hasn't shown up yet in any physically meaningful way. They will once hundreds of thousands of Model 3's are lighting up the streets, but by then they will wish they had done so sooner, and may just ask Tesla to build them a Gigafactory of their own.

 

[mmd]

The other way to look at it is the money being spent on expansion. Go check the amounts listed for the various manufacturers and you all can then make up your own minds where everyone is going to be in 2-3 years.

The BYD numbers there seems to have missed the batteries used in its buses. Please see the first comment. And as of yet, the battery maker for Tesla is Panasonic, not Tesla.

And here is Samsung's plan for its own Gigafactory. So, competition is heating up for sure.
"Samsung SDI has become an electric vehicle battery pure-play. It now owns 5 production lines in Korea and China with total capacity of 4.5GWh. But by 2020, it will bring its capacity to around 35GWh."
Hello, Gigafactory! Samsung Moves To Compete With Tesla - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Also, BYD already has plans for its own Gigafactory. From March of this year:
"Shenzhen-based BYD plans to add 6 gigawatt hours of global production for batteries in each of the next three years, and hopes to keep adding at that pace afterwards if demand is solid, Matthew Jurjevich, a spokesman for the company, said on Friday."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/us-byd-battery-idUSKBN0M92MZ20150313#UHKTe8Z9EzvoS3At.97

 

[Causalien]

Not sure exactly what your question is. There is no other product where a single company has held a dominant position in EV Batteries. EV's are still new, and Tesla is going to become the biggest battery maker in the world, period. How is that not going to dominate?

If you are asking about other industries... sure:

1. Intel (microprocessors)
2. Microsoft (operating systems)
3. Google (search and organizing the world's data)
4. Apple (personal computers)
5. Dupont (pretty much every chemical that is needed to make plastics)
6. Corning (the glass on pretty much everything, including that smart phone you are probably viewing this on)
7. Etc etc etc.

....

Speaking of which, TSLA should work with Corning to solve the windshield production issue. From my experience working with Corning Scientists on production inspection, they are very competent.

 

[McMuggets]

The BYD numbers there seems to have missed the batteries used in its buses. Please see the first comment. And as of yet, the battery maker for Tesla is Panasonic, not Tesla.

And here is Samsung's plan for its own Gigafactory. So, competition is heating up for sure.
"Samsung SDI has become an electric vehicle battery pure-play. It now owns 5 production lines in Korea and China with total capacity of 4.5GWh. But by 2020, it will bring its capacity to around 35GWh."
Hello, Gigafactory! Samsung Moves To Compete With Tesla - Asia Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Also, BYD already has plans for its own Gigafactory. From March of this year:
"Shenzhen-based BYD plans to add 6 gigawatt hours of global production for batteries in each of the next three years, and hopes to keep adding at that pace afterwards if demand is solid, Matthew Jurjevich, a spokesman for the company, said on Friday."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/us-byd-battery-idUSKBN0M92MZ20150313#UHKTe8Z9EzvoS3At.97

Again, I never said Tesla would be dominant forever, but for the foreseeable future yes... Tesla is it. This is a short term price movements thread, and Gigafactory is coming online sooner than an article saying Samsung plans to expand production. All the plans by Samsung will one day become reality, hopefully by 2020 as stated in that article... But until then it is pie in the sky similar to all the "look out Tesla, there's a new electric car coming" type articles: Yipes! Watch out Tesla! Move over Tesla! | TeslaMondo

Regardless, more batteries the better.

 

[McMuggets]

Sorry, but doubling 2014's world battery output in 2020 or 2025 doesn't make Tesla the dominant player at that time. You can't assume that every other competitor sits still during those years, particularly if the market grows. And then, there are the massive investments needed for such growth. So far, Tesla has built like 15% of the originally proposed Gigafactory.

For the latest battery market share, you can check this link. Jose has done a good job on this one. If anything, we see BYD growing over 100% from last year. BYD also has the same advantages you mention in your post: local raw materials and factory. It even uses its own batteries in solar+storage, and its own cars and buses.
EV Sales: Batteries - September 2015

But if your investment thesis is to take Ron Baron's words as gospel, then any analysis or argument is useless for you. You can just keep your faith and hope it becomes true. It is certainly possible that someday Tesla becomes the leader, but it's not a given at this time.

Posting one link to a video interview does not automatically mean that I am taking Ron Baron as gospel. Anyhow, a simple chart here shows the various battery makers breakdown. While in 2020 it is likely the Gigafactory won't be making double the worlds cells given the growth in world cell supply in total, Tesla will still be the dominant maker. Also, in 2020 it's not just 35GWh of cells, it's an additional 50GWh: Gigafactory 1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[bh1783]

Samsung sdi's 35gwh battery sell to who at 2020? ur mom? lol

Samsung already makes cells for the BMW i3 and i8. Samsung could also sell batteries to themselves since they already produce cars with Renault. Samsung also has an electric vehicle in production as well.

 

[luca]

so how many i3 and i8 will consume 35gwh?

where is samsung's bev, how many bev did it sell this year? show me!!!

stupid lol

 

[McMuggets]

Samsung already makes cells for the BMW i3 and i8. Samsung could also sell batteries to themselves since they already produce cars with Renault. Samsung also has an electric vehicle in production as well.

As detailed very well prior in this thread, BMW i3 battery is inferior compared to teslas. Their weight to energy ratio is really not even in the same league.