Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sub]

Anyone have last years numbers handy?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Trip Chowdhry Discusses Tesla's Auto-Pilot & Software Updates, Thinks NVIDIA & Mobileye Will Benefit According to Chowdhry, Tesla has a "secret sauce" of bringing together radar application, ultrasonic, and vision capabilities into its "very compelling" Auto-Pilot Solution. Shares of Tesla remain Overweight rated with an unchanged $385 price target, which is based on a 10x fiscal 2015 revenue estimate of $6.2 billion, and full year deliveries of 62,000 to 65,000 units – an "achievable" target that also happens to fall above the company's own guidance of 55,000 deliveries.

https://www.trademonster.com/l/5727706

Trip at it again...

 

[dalalsid]

Trip Chowdhry Discusses Tesla's Auto-Pilot & Software Updates, Thinks NVIDIA & Mobileye Will Benefit According to Chowdhry, Tesla has a "secret sauce" of bringing together radar application, ultrasonic, and vision capabilities into its "very compelling" Auto-Pilot Solution. Shares of Tesla remain Overweight rated with an unchanged $385 price target, which is based on a 10x fiscal 2015 revenue estimate of $6.2 billion, and full year deliveries of 62,000 to 65,000 units – an "achievable" target that also happens to fall above the company's own guidance of 55,000 deliveries.

https://www.trademonster.com/l/5727706

Trip at it again...

I can't decide who is worse, Trip or the bear analysts. Though this one wasn't up to his usual standards. I was expecting something more along the lines of autopilot will make the car leap like a frog over slow old folks on a one lane highway or something.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Tesla Motors Selects Solera as Sole Provider of Collision and Customer Communication Services
Through AudaExplore (U.S.) and Audatex (global), insurers and repairers will use the Solera solutions to process fast and accurate collision repair estimates and insurance claims on Tesla vehicles. Tesla will also leverage the AutoWatch platform within the Solera solution set to enhance both the driver experience and communication between Tesla and its customers.

https://www.trademonster.com/l/5727962

I have no idea what this will do for Tesla share price if anything but wanted to get it out for comments.

 

[MitchJi]

Yea Tesla:
Tesla Presses Its Case on Fuel Standards - Yahoo Finance

Tesla Presses Its Case on Fuel Standards

Tesla is preparing to make a public case for leaving mileage and emissions regulations intact, or making them even more stringent.

Tesla is preparing to make a public case for leaving mileage and emissions regulations intact, or making them even more stringent. Photo: DON CAMPBELL/The Herald-Palladium/Associated Press

By
Mike Ramsey
Aug. 2, 2015 7:51 p.m. ET
PALO ALTO, Calif.—Auto makers have been laying the groundwork to seek relief from U.S. regulators on lofty fuel-economy targets. But Tesla Motors Inc. is rowing in the opposite direction, saying it wants to make the rules even tougher.

The Silicon Valley electric-car maker is preparing to make a public case this week for leaving mileage and emissions regulations intact, or making them even more stringent, a Tesla executive said. The company also will fight to keep other auto makers from loosening regulations in California, which has more ambitious targets than the federal government.

U.S. fuel-economy targets call for manufacturers to sell vehicles averaging 54.5 miles a gallon by 2025.

Tougher regulations could benefit Tesla, while challenging other auto makers that make bigger profits on higher-margin trucks and sport-utility vehicles.

Tesla’s vice president of development, Dairmuid O’Connell, plans to argue to auto executives and other industry experts attending a conferenceon the northern tip of Michigan that car companies can meet regulations as currently written.

“We are about to hear a lot of rhetoric that Americans don’t want to buy electric vehicles,” Mr. O’Connell said in an interview ahead of a Tuesday presentation in Traverse City, Mich. “From an empirical standpoint, the [regulations] are very weak, eminently achievable and the only thing missing is the will to put compelling products on the road.”

The presentation likely will further Tesla’s reputation as industry agitator, a role often taken on by founder Elon Musk, who rankles rivals with proclamations about their apparent lack of progress in building viable electric vehicles. It also will mark a significant departure from other auto makers that historically have tried to soften fuel-economy regulations.

The industry typically has agreed to tougher standards under political pressure and only after thorough negotiations. In Detroit earlier this year, Mr. Musk urged auto makers to continue advancing electric vehicles amid falling oil prices, even while disclosing his company likely won’t be profitable until 2020.

General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are increasingly selling less-efficient pickup trucks and SUVs amid a sustained run of lower gasoline prices and are readying arguments for less-strict rules when federal regulators review mileage targets in 2017 and California reviews its regulations that require a minimum percentage of electric cars in 2016.

One route for relief would be getting progress points for autonomous features such as automatic braking that they argue both improve safety and save fuel to offset vehicles that are less fuel efficient than the target.

“Auto makers are offering consumers more choice than ever in energy-efficient vehicles, but that’s not enough,” said a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry lobbying group representing a dozen auto makers including GM, Toyota and Ford Motor Co. “We need consumers to buy them in high volumes to meet the steep climb in fuel-economy standards ahead.”

The 15 fully electric vehicles on sale last year registered 0.4% of overall auto purchases in the U.S., the spokeswoman said. The share of sales doesn’t brighten much when adding other more-efficient vehicles with so-called alternative powertrains into the mix.

Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles and clean-diesel vehicles represented about 5.6% of sales in 2014, according to the Alliance. Trucks and SUVs, meanwhile, made up more than half of sales. Electric vehicles, while fuel-efficient, are tougher sells amid low gas prices because of their heftier price tags, even with offsetting tax credits.

Still, Tesla has established itself by selling electric cars starting around $70,000 and able to travel more than twice as far on a single battery charge than competing vehicles. Founded in 2003, it boasts a market capitalization exceeding $33 billion, more than half that of GM.

Traditional auto makers aren’t sitting still. GM is readying the Chevrolet Bolt, a 200-mile range electric car due out in 2017. Germany’s Audi and Nissan Motor Co. of Japan also have promised electric vehicles with ranges similar to Tesla’s models.

Tesla can make extra money by trading regulatory credits it earns for selling cars that make zero pollution in states like California. Tesla reaped $216.3 million from selling credits in 2014. It banked $194.4 million and $40.5 million selling credits in 2013 and 2012, respectively.

Tesla contends that other auto makers have earned enough of their own credits and made such strides in improving fuel economy that they should be able to meet California regulatory mileage targets through 2022, according to an analysis the company plans to unveil Tuesday. Auto makers can meet current standards even without adding additional so-called zero-emission vehicles to the roads, Tesla says.Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne earlier this year suggested the U.S. government give auto makers more time to meet higher targets.

Regulators so far have been cool to relaxing standards. The Environmental Protection Agency will conduct an evaluation to “decide whether the standards for model years 2022-2025, established in 2012, are still appropriate given the latest available data and information,” an agency official said. The “EPA’s decision could go one of three ways: the standards remain appropriate, the standards should be less stringent, or the standards should be more stringent.”

Other auto executives often argue that electric vehicles will need to make up a far larger share of sales to meet loftier fuel-economy targets, a tough mandate when gasoline prices are low.

In addition to federal fuel-economy targets, California and a group of 11 other states require auto makers to sell a certain percentage of their fleets with zero emissions—usually electric cars running on batteries or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. Mr. Marchionne, among the industry’s more outspoken executives, has bemoaned losing money on cars manufactured to meet those regulations.

Write to Mike Ramsey at [email protected]

 

[hockeythug]

Looks like pretty good earnings for the other auto's.

Edit: Maybe not.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I sometimes wonder whether big oil and other worldly powers are killing the price of oil in an attempt to destroy renewable energy stocks. Getting oil down to the $20.00 zone would be a real problem for Elon's dream. It may be the main component determining success or failure at a critical junction. I would rather have oil at 100 dollars during a Model 3 reveal than 25.00. This destruction in commodites and related stocks is unbelievable. I don't think there is anything stopping Tesla other than oil prices.

 

[ggies07]

I sometimes wonder whether big oil and other worldly powers are killing the price of oil in an attempt to destroy renewable energy stocks. Getting oil down to the $20.00 zone would be a real problem for Elon's dream. It may be the main component determining success or failure at a critical junction. I would rather have oil at 100 dollars during a Model 3 reveal than 25.00. This destruction in commodites and related stocks is unbelievable. I don't think there is anything stopping Tesla other than oil prices.

I've been wondering that as well. Recently, and every time it happens, I have seen many posts on Facebook from people exclaiming how happy they are that the price of gas has dropped and how much they will save now. This bothers me a lot because then I think why would these people even think about switching to an EV? And the cycle continues.....

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

I've been wondering that as well. Recently, and every time it happens, I have seen many posts on Facebook from people exclaiming how happy they are that the price of gas has dropped and how much they will save now. This bothers me a lot because then I think why would these people even think about switching to an EV? And the cycle continues.....

Oil price is a concern. But I have a feeling Tesla might be lucky with timing; In 2017 the oil price might be a lot higher due to the production decrease that cheap oil will bring along..

 

[mejojo]

I sometimes wonder whether big oil and other worldly powers are killing the price of oil in an attempt to destroy renewable energy stocks.

That's a natural side-effect/by-product of trying to kill off the boom in more expensive US production (e.g. fracking).

Less fracking, by whatever means, is good by me.

 

[doggusfluffy]

California Regulator Mary Nichols May Transform the Auto Industry - Bloomberg Business

Next year, Nichols will be a key player, along with Obama administra*tion officials, in a review and update that will set the course for the national mileage standards and her own ZEV quotas. “This review will shape the next 20 years of transportation tech*nology worldwide,” says Diarmuid O’Connell, vice president of business development at Tesla Motors.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I wonder if you guys would mind brainstorming a bit on ER impact on TSLA. I came across this article on Marketwatch today, here are some of the main points:
- Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 60 cents a share in the second quarter
- The same analysts forecast Tesla’s revenue to hit $1.18 billion, up from $858 million a year ago. Tesla’s automotive division is expected to report sales of $1.1 billion up from $768 million a year earlier.
- On average, Wall Street analysts have a $279.78 price target on Tesla shares, which represents an upside of about 6% from its current trading level.

Other than that, the obvious analyst expectations are news/confirmation of timeline on X, 3, GF, so the same stuff we talk about all the time too.

Call me an optimist, but this is how I read this: The consensus is that the stock is about $15 short of where it should be with the loss above factored in, given there is no X slippage or other bad news (Model 3 or Gigafactory target dates). So we should be up for a small rise in TSLA unless there is some nasty surprise with the losses (e.g. R&D and sales expenditures running amok). If we exceed these numbers and/or they announce some short deadlines for X production start, the stock may explode.

Now, an unknown is, of course, just exactly how much did the 70D impact the ASP this quarter. I think last quarter it was around 105k, driven by P85D deliveries, but, as much as I love the 70D, it will have some negative impact, right? So 11,507 cars times 105k minus 70D impact should be the revenue... 1.1 billion seems like a pretty good guess to me, it works out to a 95K ASP.

What do you think?

 

[replicant]

Oil price is a concern. But I have a feeling Tesla might be lucky with timing; In 2017 the oil price might be a lot higher due to the production decrease that cheap oil will bring along..

"The Stone Age did not end because of the lack of stones, and the Oil Age won't end because of lack of oil."

In the end, what matters is oil demand - not oil price. Tesla must make electric cars appealing and affordable for everyone, whatever the price of oil.

 

[Paracelsus]

I wonder if you guys would mind brainstorming a bit on ER impact on TSLA. I came across this article on Marketwatch today, here are some of the main points:
- Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 60 cents a share in the second quarter
- The same analysts forecast Tesla’s revenue to hit $1.18 billion, up from $858 million a year ago. Tesla’s automotive division is expected to report sales of $1.1 billion up from $768 million a year earlier.
- On average, Wall Street analysts have a $279.78 price target on Tesla shares, which represents an upside of about 6% from its current trading level.

Other than that, the obvious analyst expectations are news/confirmation of timeline on X, 3, GF, so the same stuff we talk about all the time too.

Call me an optimist, but this is how I read this: The consensus is that the stock is about $15 short of where it should be with the loss above factored in, given there is no X slippage or other bad news (Model 3 or Gigafactory target dates). So we should be up for a small rise in TSLA unless there is some nasty surprise with the losses (e.g. R&D and sales expenditures running amok). If we exceed these numbers and/or they announce some short deadlines for X production start, the stock may explode.

Now, an unknown is, of course, just exactly how much did the 70D impact the ASP this quarter. I think last quarter it was around 105k, driven by P85D deliveries, but, as much as I love the 70D, it will have some negative impact, right? So 11,507 cars times 105k minus 70D impact should be the revenue... 1.1 billion seems like a pretty good guess to me, it works out to a 95K ASP.

What do you think?

Comments on this board and by some analysts would suggest that the targets are based on models S and X at a run rate of nearly 100,000 vehicles per year by the end of the year with very little-if-any increase in SP for energy storage. I think the greatest potential for an increase on earnings would be a much clearer window into the world of energy storage sales, commitments, and partnerships. I think Elon wanted to talk about that at the share holders meeting, but the questions that were asked didn't lead him down that trail. It may not be unreasonable to see a level of sales & commitments equal to vehicle sales for the quarter. Then Causalien would be correct............it will be off to Mars.

 

[Bobbyducati]

wth is going on...?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

wth is going on...?

Oil just broke through a MAJOR technical line which could indicate world recession. And the beloved Apple did the same thing. European Union outlook just cut to negative by S&P.

 

[Irishjugg]

wth is going on...?

Looks like the market has decided we should all get bargain prices pre-ER. Time to move some cash.

 

[Bobbyducati]

Looks like the market has decided we should all get bargain prices pre-ER. Time to move some cash.

just added some sep calls. hopefully i dont cause tsla to go further down....

 

[AlMc]

just added some sep calls. hopefully i dont cause tsla to go further down....

It won't be you if that happens. It will be China, Greece, Oil.....Macro stuff

 

[doggusfluffy]

I added some too. Was just reading about people spotting X's on the test track today.
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/3fkfbp/model_x_coming_out_of_the_factory/