I'm going to add to Sept. calls too, but I'm waiting for Wednesday to add, right before to ER. I think the price action, like on so many previous earning reports days, will be down only to pop after earnings. Good luck to all playing this one, particularly the ones with short term holdings.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Tesla Motors Inc Model X Registrations Jump In July; Model S Sales Drop
I can't believe this kind of stuff still gets circulated. Congrats for those buying in now. It's literally free money.
I can't believe this kind of stuff still gets circulated. Congrats for those buying in now. It's literally free money.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Those of you betting on shortish term calls and a post ER rise in stock price. You may well get the latter but your calls may still loose lots of value.
Remember, remember, the iv crush!
Just some friendly advice from someone who got burned one too many times by this.
Remember, remember, the iv crush!
Just some friendly advice from someone who got burned one too many times by this.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Lots of bulls are expecting a nice jump and bears a huge drop but as Johan said we may not get either to an extent that short term options are worth it. This is a great reminder for all of us.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If you're bullish and have the cash/margin to cover it, instead of buying calls sell puts and be on the other side of the iv crush.
ludicrousspeed
Member
Is this information confirmed? If Tesla really delivered 1,600 Model S in July that is going to be an issue. I really hope that number is incorrect or misleading because if would definitely point to Tesla transitioning to being demand-constrained with the combination of the lower-cost 70kwh models and incentive program being introduced within the last couple of weeks. Let's hope they're able to start delivering Model X and capitalize on these 25K pre-orders.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Don't worry about oil, watch gasoline
There is a gross misconception that Tesla competes with the price of crude oil. Not really, Tesla competes with the retail price of gasoline. About $1.12/gallon has nothing to do with the price of crude; rather it is due to transportation, refining, distribution and retailing, aND taxes. These are the infrastructural costs of transforming oil into a usable substance conveniently available where you drive. This infrastructural cost will not decline with the price of oil and will generally keep the cost of gasoline above parity with charging and EV.
You may find it illuminating to compare UGA, an ETF tracking the wholesale price of gasoline (which does not include the retailing costs of diatribution, marketing and taxation, and USO, an ETF tracking the price of crude. YTD, UGA is up 12% while USO is down 14%. Or if you look at the last 5 years, UGA is up 11% and USO is down 53%. This implies that for a long time the price of wholesale gasoline has been rising 18.8% per year relative to the price of oil. This is actually a huge problem for oil producers. The cost of getting oil to market in the form of motor fuels keeps going up. Meanwhile, demand at the retail level has stagnated. Thus, oil producers would have to take a huge cut in the price of oil just to remove a little pain at the pump.
The other thing to watch is natural gas. YTD, UNG, an ETF tracking the price of natural gas, has fallen 13%, and it has fallen 77% in the last 5 years. The decline in NG has been keeping the cost of electricity down. It has put substantial price pressure on coal, driving it down about as much. KOL, an ETF tracking coal producer market cap, is down 71% over 5 years. It is worth recognizing that NG and coal have been declining faster than oil and primarily keep the cost of electricity down. In the long run, solar and wind will drive down further the cost of NG and coal. The snag that we have for electricity is that declining fuel costs are not fully passed on to retail consumer as savings. But the is the same problem with retail gasoline, as a commensurate amount of saving in crude is not being passed on to retail gasoline customers. In any case, rooftop solar gives retail ratepayers a way to bypass the cost friction of the utilities. So at least for those able to benefit from rooftop solar, the decline in the cost of solar is fully reducing the cost of charging an EV. Eventually, the utilities will have to compete by lowering their rates.
So it does not really matter if the price of crude continues to fall. The cost of coal, natural gas, wind, and solar are falling faster. The cost of gasoline is above parity with electricity, and this will continue indefinitely.
There is a gross misconception that Tesla competes with the price of crude oil. Not really, Tesla competes with the retail price of gasoline. About $1.12/gallon has nothing to do with the price of crude; rather it is due to transportation, refining, distribution and retailing, aND taxes. These are the infrastructural costs of transforming oil into a usable substance conveniently available where you drive. This infrastructural cost will not decline with the price of oil and will generally keep the cost of gasoline above parity with charging and EV.
You may find it illuminating to compare UGA, an ETF tracking the wholesale price of gasoline (which does not include the retailing costs of diatribution, marketing and taxation, and USO, an ETF tracking the price of crude. YTD, UGA is up 12% while USO is down 14%. Or if you look at the last 5 years, UGA is up 11% and USO is down 53%. This implies that for a long time the price of wholesale gasoline has been rising 18.8% per year relative to the price of oil. This is actually a huge problem for oil producers. The cost of getting oil to market in the form of motor fuels keeps going up. Meanwhile, demand at the retail level has stagnated. Thus, oil producers would have to take a huge cut in the price of oil just to remove a little pain at the pump.
The other thing to watch is natural gas. YTD, UNG, an ETF tracking the price of natural gas, has fallen 13%, and it has fallen 77% in the last 5 years. The decline in NG has been keeping the cost of electricity down. It has put substantial price pressure on coal, driving it down about as much. KOL, an ETF tracking coal producer market cap, is down 71% over 5 years. It is worth recognizing that NG and coal have been declining faster than oil and primarily keep the cost of electricity down. In the long run, solar and wind will drive down further the cost of NG and coal. The snag that we have for electricity is that declining fuel costs are not fully passed on to retail consumer as savings. But the is the same problem with retail gasoline, as a commensurate amount of saving in crude is not being passed on to retail gasoline customers. In any case, rooftop solar gives retail ratepayers a way to bypass the cost friction of the utilities. So at least for those able to benefit from rooftop solar, the decline in the cost of solar is fully reducing the cost of charging an EV. Eventually, the utilities will have to compete by lowering their rates.
So it does not really matter if the price of crude continues to fall. The cost of coal, natural gas, wind, and solar are falling faster. The cost of gasoline is above parity with electricity, and this will continue indefinitely.
Please realize this article is fubar. We all know that Tesla changes it's channel allocation by geography. That 1,600 for July was US registrations only. That's the caveat which is why I said it's a silly drop. Historically, Tesla typically overweights production and therefore deliveries in the beginning of the quarter to international.
Also, I hate to break the news to you guys. Not everybody wants an SUV. Model S sales will be fine.
Electrifying
Member
If you look at the InsideEV sales chart. it appears Tesla has a seasonal pattern where it delivers much more cars in N.A. near end of the quarter (Mar, June), where the first month of quarter has a dip (Jan, April, July). This makes sense as they want to push cars manufactured early in the quarter into the shipping pipeline to oversea markets.
hockeythug
Active Member
How can we track the volume of all the oil extracted/consumed continuously, alongside the price of oil? The revenues generated by the sale of gasoline/oil would tell us far more than just the unit price.
What can we infer much from the price of a barrel/gallon when:
- high prices can imply either high demand (bad!) or low production (good!)
- low prices can mean either low demand (good!) or high production (bad!)
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Please, fellow TMC participants, do us all a favor: if you're going to link to something like Bidness, please append the link text with something like "[BIDNESS]" so we know better than clicking on it. It's not a legitimate news source.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
The comments on there included a now deleted one that supposedly said that the Model X test production run started today. Deleted because of the date being confidential. But it seems the proof is there riding on the track this morning.
If there is major Model X news this week, everything else will not matter. It will catapult the stock in my opinion.
this! i felt dirty clicking that link, a quick copy paste of the relevant FUDness would help too.
ludicrousspeed
Member
Appreciate you and anz1217 clearing that up for me. Definitely nothing to worry about because 2014 saw over a 55% decline in N.A. Model S deliveries from June to July and since several other regions are currently expanding faster than N.A. anyways. I'm assuming there is no way to track sales outside of NA?
Also interesting to note how quickly Tesla sales caught up to and surpassed every other EV on the market, despite an ASP around six figures. Not to mention that the Model S outsells all the gasoline cars in its class in an era where electric vehicles are still an after-thought. Tesla is entering and pioneering multiple industries, especially with the recent introduction of Battery Storage products.
Be careful extrapolating the release of the Model X to guaranteed share price increase. The release of the car is already priced into many models as happening basically now. Financials, performance against guidance and future guidance (with any possible revisions) are much more likely to dominate the share price after ER, I think.
I made a pretty penny on FB's earnings last week by betting against a big move. Who knows, might work here too. I think everything comes down to guidance. If they come on and say "We're not going to deliver 55k, only 52k", we will have a huge drop. If they say 'Model X ramp is going faster than expected, we expect 60k deliveries', we will probably see $300.
In the 5 year plan, this is irrelevant, but wall street only looks forward like 3 months.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I think they will need to absolutely crush earnings, not just meet. But then again......what do I know? I sold at the lows last week for Pete sake. These markets are just nuts.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Barring some kind of news out of the blue good or bad I am leaning towards no big move myself. This is based on my feeling of sentiment and recent price action so not exactly accurate. It feels to me that TSLA is in a holding pattern waiting for the next big news. If the ER is just "everything is going according to plan," which I expect, then I expect that holding pattern to continue until we get that news.
Ah for sure. Will do.
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Please let us know when you are going to sell again
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