60K deliveries is highly improbable given there has been no news of Model X yet. I would be happy with recommitting 55K deliveries and have Tesla share their plan of action to reach that number.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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60K deliveries is highly improbable given there has been no news of Model X yet. I would be happy with recommitting 55K deliveries and have Tesla share their plan of action to reach that number.
doggusfluffy
Closed
I don't know what the market will do for certain...but if they did start producing X today and announce it during the ER I would have to think that would be a big positive catalyst.
jhm
Well-Known Member
You can get this sort of info from EIA. This article is sensible too: How the Middle East and China Drove Crude Oil Prices Lower - Market Realist
But I think you missed the point of my post. People are not concerned with the price of hay fed to dairy cows. They care about the price of milk. So it is, people do not care about the price of crude; they care about the price of gas at the pump.
I am posting this because bears have already burned Tesla investors on this canard about the price of crude. There is no real correlation here. Bears are very selective about when to deploy this notion. Once you understand that it is the retail price that matters, you realize that gasoline will never be cheaper than electricity, especially in an era when rooftop solar has become cost competitive.
Longrun the prices and production of crude, coal and natural gas will all drop essentially to zero, but that is because increasingly efficient wind, solar and batteries will have driven fossil fuels largely out of the energy markets. Oil majors are coming to see that low oil prices will last a long time. Over the last 5 years in the US, naturally gas declined 77% in price. About a year ago, oil was trading at about 4 times the price of natural gas on a per unit of energy basis. Now oil has come down about 50%, but it is still twice the price of natural gas on a per energy unit basis. There really is no need for oil to proceed at a 100% premium to NG. Oil furnaces get replaced with gas furnaces, oil peakers get replaced with gas peakers, diesel buses and trucks get replaced with CNG, and conventional cars get replaced with hybrids and EVs. All these actions chip away at demand for crude until a 300% premium of oil over NG gets reduced to 30% and below. This is why oil prices are headed below $33/bbl. So NG has already drug coal down 70% and it will do the same for crude oil. What's really funny is that wind ($25/MWh) and utility solar ($39/MWh) are both cost competitive with generating electricity from natural gas ($61/MWh). So natural gas must remain cheap to compete with wind and solar. Moreover, Tesla's Powerpacks are pushing the levelized cost of storage toward about $50/MWh, so wind, solar and storage can realize an average cost below $60/MWh for fully dispatchable power. So the price of natural gas is competirely capped in the long run by the combined cost of wind, solar and batteries. So it is all fossil fuels become capped by renewables.
So if energy from any source becomes cheap, what kind of car do you really want to drive? It becomes more of an aesthetic question than an economic one.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yep. That would mitigate a risk.
I also find it very difficult to believe that tesla would have any key supplier issues related to model X production. Reasons:
1). unlike Model S launch, every supplier knows that Model X IS real and tesla's supplier POs are legit.
2). Any supplier that voiced any lack of commitment would've been switched out by now
3). The batteries and skateboard and Body-In-White are tesla made. No issue there. Car interior/upholstery is the only area I can think of where there are key external suppliers. I can't imagine Nvidia or other electrical suppliers having supply issues. They already supply these parts for Model S. Lots of commonality.
Even if the price of crude oil falls to $20, the price of gasoline will still not be competitive with Electric Vehicles.
1) Competition among gasoline stations, fixed costs, and other expenses will prevent gasoline from being competive with free/close to free electricity.
2) I suspect we will learn of new mandates, similar to what California is planning to implement will be implemented in multiple states, and will cause the value of ZEV credits to skyrocket. Additionally, subsidies that currently go to oil and gas, will probably be shifted to renewables, and incentives to buy Electric Vehicles.
Tesla is basically the only automobile manufacturer capable of selling anywhere near 1 million Electric Vehicles annually by 2020.
The other automobile manufacturers are moving in the opposite direction and are working on selling more SUVs.
3) Tesla's Superchargers are free.
4) Why aren't the health and environmental costs of gasoline included in the price of gasoline?
5) A few hundred billion in dollars is about to be made available to companies such as Tesla.
6) Residual Value of Tesla vehicles, after 10 years will be significantly higher than any other vehicle.
7) How many new gasoline stations were built in 2015? What is the average age if the gas stations that exist today? Does data exist for this?
8) New Gas Stations Must Have Quick Charging Or Other Alt Fuels, Canadian City Says
9) How many gas stations are there in the U.S?
1) Competition among gasoline stations, fixed costs, and other expenses will prevent gasoline from being competive with free/close to free electricity.
2) I suspect we will learn of new mandates, similar to what California is planning to implement will be implemented in multiple states, and will cause the value of ZEV credits to skyrocket. Additionally, subsidies that currently go to oil and gas, will probably be shifted to renewables, and incentives to buy Electric Vehicles.
Tesla is basically the only automobile manufacturer capable of selling anywhere near 1 million Electric Vehicles annually by 2020.
The other automobile manufacturers are moving in the opposite direction and are working on selling more SUVs.
3) Tesla's Superchargers are free.
4) Why aren't the health and environmental costs of gasoline included in the price of gasoline?
5) A few hundred billion in dollars is about to be made available to companies such as Tesla.
6) Residual Value of Tesla vehicles, after 10 years will be significantly higher than any other vehicle.
7) How many new gasoline stations were built in 2015? What is the average age if the gas stations that exist today? Does data exist for this?
8) New Gas Stations Must Have Quick Charging Or Other Alt Fuels, Canadian City Says
9) How many gas stations are there in the U.S?
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jhm
Well-Known Member
A simple model for the price of a gallon of gas given the price of a barrel of crude is:
Gas = $1.30 + Crude/42.
So when crude is at $50/bbl, we see gas around $2.49. I think crude will go to about $30, so gas $1.96. Assuming 25 MPG, this is about 7.9c/mile. Even if we see $20/bbl, that's $1.87/gal or 7.1c/mile.
Assuming 12c/kWh and 3 to 4 miles per kWh for an EV, we get 3 to 4 c/mile. So even at the ridiculously low price of $20/bbl, a gasoline car still costs twice as much to power as an EV. Of course saving just 3 to 4 cents per mile is not a huge financial incentive by itself, but there are many other good reasons to prefer a no-compromise EV.
mejojo
Active Member
California gasoline price components from Estimated 2015 Gasoline Price Breakdown Margins Details
Crude price is only 1/3 of the price of gasoline here as of 3 weeks ago.
So gas = $2.50 + Crude/42. Maybe that's one reason we have a lot of EVs.
Crude price is only 1/3 of the price of gasoline here as of 3 weeks ago.
So gas = $2.50 + Crude/42. Maybe that's one reason we have a lot of EVs.
I especially like # 4. (I still have a pet peeve about gas companies selling leaded gas for a few years after it was proved harmful to humans. )
All great reasons.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Well stated. For all those correlating drop in barrel of oil to Tesla sales (I was originally one of those), do the math. Living in Toronto, June '14 saw $117USD/barrel and a price at the pump of $1.38CAD/litre. August '15 and we are at $46USD/barrel and a price at the pump of $1.17CAD/litre. Barrel of oil price has dropped by 61%, however only a 15% drop over the same period for gasoline. Not significant to affect Tesla sales. As jhm notes further large drop in cost per barrel of oil will similarly bring only marginal decrease in gasoline prices.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 114,533 gas stations in the U.S. at the end of 2012, the last year for which data is available.
Read more: Why Are There 115,000 (or 150,000) Gas Stations in America? - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/economy/2014/0...150000-gas-stations-in-america/#ixzz3hnL5iOyT
Vger
Active Member
While I agree in part, I think that there is a lot of nervousness both inside the Tesla community and in the financial community at large about Model X. People are at least "twice bitten" with the delays, so I think there will be genuine relief when the final X is shown, Design Studio opens, and first customers (Founders and Sigs) actually take delivery. That could all happen in a week or in a month or so, but when it does, I think there will be at least a "relief rally" on the stock.
If production ramps quickly and 1000's of cars are being delivered by October, I think the stock will move sharply higher (approaching $300). There are still a lot of skeptics around the 55k number, and just an assurance on the Wednesday CC of the first half being "on plan" will not be sufficient. People need to see a lot of metal moving to get us out of this $250-$280 range, IMHO.
OPEC outright stated that this was their strategy, but to be honest I think the current dip is unplanned by them and that they have lost control.
Iran oil is going to start flowing, and flowing strong. Parring some big new instability event in the Middle East, I think oil no higher than $2.50 a gallon will be the norm for a while.
Of course, Middle East instability is always going to happen, so we should of course expect gas to rise back up to the $3-$3.50 level at some point (I don't think it'll breach that level for a long time due to shale oil's ability to produce above $70-80 a barrel).
I personally would love to see $5 a gallon gas, but that's just me
Yeah it's just OPEC trying to stay relevant. And besides, in the long-term oil prices don't matter that much for EV's. The model s is proof of concept and then some that a well made EV trumps a well made ICE in pretty much every category except range (for now), and battery prices are going to go down regardless of oil prices.
jhm
Well-Known Member
That's a really great breakout of costs. I'm surprised the refinery cost and profits are so high. It's the single largest component of cost. I suspected as much from the comparison of UGA wholesale gasoline to USO crude. Does anyone know why refinery costs would grow 19% per year relative to crude?
mmd
Active Member
Well, there is also the 68c per gallon gas tax in California, for road repairs and all sorts of other things.
California drivers brace for costly new gas tax | Fox News
"Californians already pay the nation's second highest gas tax at 68 cents a gallon -- and now it will go up again in January to pay for a first-in-the-nation climate change law."
California drivers brace for costly new gas tax | Fox News
"Californians already pay the nation's second highest gas tax at 68 cents a gallon -- and now it will go up again in January to pay for a first-in-the-nation climate change law."
Incredulocious
LEAF → RAV4EV → Model 3 → Model Y
That Fox News article is from August 2014.
This article "California's gas tax drops to fourth highest in U.S." | The Sacramento Bee (July 2015) says:
This article "California gas tax increase: Is this the year Jerry Brown pushes it through?" - San Jose Mercury News (May 2015) says:
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Here's an article detailing the accidents as well as the "uniqueness" of the market:
"Why gas prices in California are so much higher than elsewhere in U.S." – LA Times
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