Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[TSLAopt]

If you believe in technicals, I believe we are officially in oversold territory based on every SMA possible. $240 is the spot. It's also an Options expiration date.

I don't believe in technicals and unfortunately I don't believe with TSLA stock there are enough TSLA traders/investors who believe-and-trade on technicals to make it have a 'technicals self-fullfilling prophecy effect' enough with a stock like TSLA. To me technicals can be used to help tell a story of what's happened, but i don't think they can be used to predict what will happen in the immediate, near, or distant future.

I do believe sentiment on the stock can be used to help predict the probability of where the stock will go...based on the sentiment of this board, it is not nearly as high as it was going into the ER but there is still some positive sentiment/hopes on the stock about to rebound. Unfortunately, until just about everyone commenting on this board starts saying they think the stock was way too high where it was and is going down another 20-50% then I don't think our momentum reverses. This is just how mass market psychology seems to work.

Given my thoughts above, I am a long term stocks/LEAPs holder and do not take any action either way on where "i think" the short term price is heading. I've experienced enough to know that even trading on my best guess (like above) of where the short term TSLA price is going is really just gambling. I prefer to do that at the casinos with much smaller pockets of money than my brokerage account.

 

[FluxCap]

While I bought some shares as well as mid and short term options during dips the last weeks (some are currently red), I still have some money left to deploy.
Only question is if this downwards move is sutsainable or only temporarily?!
Opinions much apprechiated

I will say that I get nervous when people encourage buying on every downward tick given less experienced investors abound in this forum. Obviously if your horizon is very long-term then fine, but if you are hoping for short-term gains and/or need access to your cash, I would strongly suggest not risking more than you can afford to lose.

Personally, I think many here have underestimated the negative fallout from this ER, which could easily persist for a while as the dust settles. I certainly hope to be wrong, but I don't expect to revisit ATH in the next week or two.

As always, trade responsibly, do not follow my advice alone, and do your own research before investing, yadda yadda.

 

[aznt1217]

What do you mean by "$240 is the spot."?
As far as I can see this is currently the 100 DMA at about $240.35.

Yesterday's low was at about $236.12.
Let's see if we stay above that level.

While I added some shares as well as mid and short term options during dips the last weeks (some are currently red), I still have some money left to deploy.
Only question is if this downwards move is sutsainable or only temporarily?!
Just to state the obvious: A $30 drop from the $270 level because of this Q2 ER?!
Opinions much apprechiated

Well we had a 15% drop back when the initial Model S accidents occurred that involved combustion so it doesn't surprise me. It's just a question of is this meritted or not. I mean $240 for me was a technical indicator based on looking at 100, 15, 200 SMA's with some margin of error inside of that figure.

It just gets tricky with TSLA because it's such a divisive stock. Those who love it REALLY love it and those who hate it-- want to see Tesla buried in the ground. Never understood this... I think it stems from people hating/loving Elon but that's just a theory. It's only temporary. We literally just need to see Model X so it proves Tesla can execute and deliver... it's not even a question of when anymore, it's a question of can they or can they not.

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Feeling your pain except Model S

Same here. I made a deal with myself if TSLA broke $300, I'd buy a Model S... even though I do not have home charging.

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I don't believe in technicals and unfortunately I don't believe with TSLA stock there are enough TSLA traders/investors who believe-and-trade on technicals to make it have a 'technicals self-fullfilling prophecy effect' enough with a stock like TSLA. To me technicals can be used to help tell a story of what's happened, but i don't think they can be used to predict what will happen in the immediate, near, or distant future.

I do believe sentiment on the stock can be used to help predict the probability of where the stock will go...based on the sentiment of this board, it is not nearly as high as it was going into the ER but there is still some positive sentiment/hopes on the stock about to rebound. Unfortunately, until just about everyone commenting on this board starts saying they think the stock was way too high where it was and is going down another 20-50% then I don't think our momentum reverses. This is just how mass market psychology seems to work.

Given my thoughts above, I am a...going is really just gambling. I prefer to do that at the casinos with much smaller pockets of money than my brokerage account.

I share your sentiment, if everything was based on technicals everybody would know how to make money.

 

[TSLAopt]

I will say that I get nervous when people encourage buying on every downward tick given less experienced investors abound in this forum. Obviously if your horizon is very long-term then fine, but if you are hoping for short-term gains and/or need access to your cash, I would strongly suggest not risking more than you can afford to lose.

Personally, I think many here have underestimated the negative fallout from this ER, which could easily persist for a while as the dust settles. I certainly hope to be wrong, but I don't expect to revisit ATH in the next week or two.

As always, trade responsibly, do not follow my advice alone, and do your own research before investing, yadda yadda.

I agree with this as well

 

[kenliles]

I agree with this as well

motion seconded

 

[BoerumHill]

Originally Posted by BoerumHill
Feeling your pain except Model S

Same here. I made a deal with myself if TSLA broke $300, I'd buy a Model S... even though I do not have home charging.

Similar goal, though it's tied to a target for all my holdings. Second largest position is DIS.

Might be a LEAF in my future.



OFF-TOPIC - also no home charger, but at my midtown west garage we do have a CHAdeMO, two ChargePoints and a goofy looking thing for LEAF only (presumably could also use CHAdeMO adapter.) Hoping they'll put in a HPWC; I spoke with management and they're mulling it over. One other Model S owner now, likely they'll be more if they install. I love that our chargers - and where they would locate the HPWC - are on a lower level down a short dead end row, e.g., no cars will ever cruise past. Pretty much the only cars in that corner are a couple EVs and a few exotics (2 Lambo, 1 Ferrari), so it's the least likely spot to pick up door dings. My other thoughts are public charging (ugh) or just hitting SC on the way out of town. Pretty much one in every direction. Daily charging will be a challenge, though.

 

[virtuesoft]

I think we could see a recovery and a close around the opening price, or perhaps a bit higher. A lot of shorts will be cashing in prior to the weekend close.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

I think we could see a recovery and a close around the opening price, or perhaps a bit higher. A lot of shorts will be cashing in prior to the weekend close.

I think shorts will have their way with the stock until something material comes up. Unfortunately, I think the ER momentum will carry over until the release of the Model X configuration at the very least. Once the X ramp is in full production towards beginning of 2016, along with a possible M3 reveal and completion of GF phase 1 as early as Q1, I expect a significant reaction from the market.

 

[gene]

Kinda' off topic, kinda' not. Yesterday I was on the phone with a service writer at the new Santa Barbara, CA Tesla Store/Service. I mentioned to her that it is interesting that the new and beautiful Santa Barbara store is directly across the narrow street from BMW and also next door to Lexus. I asked if she noticed people walking over from BMW. She said "better yet, I've seen shoppers drive onto the BMW lot, notice Tesla across the street, and without even getting out of their cars, drive over to the Tesla store first!".

 

[FredTMC]

motion seconded

Yep. agreed. No return to ATH quickly.

Huge advocate of TM, EM, and TSLA. Long since 2012... Buy and hold.

Rant: Wish I didn't have to experience "Seat Gate Part II (MX)"

 

[MSEV]

Kinda' off topic, kinda' not. Yesterday I was on the phone with a service writer at the new Santa Barbara, CA Tesla Store/Service. I mentioned to her that it is interesting that the new and beautiful Santa Barbara store is directly across the narrow street from BMW and also next door to Lexus. I asked if she noticed people walking over from BMW. She said "better yet, I've seen shoppers drive onto the BMW lot, notice Tesla across the street, and without even getting out of their cars, drive over to the Tesla store first!".

That is interesting.
There was an article in the paper this morning about Lexus dealerships, at least some of them, moving to "no haggling" format because the Millenials don't like it.
Pause.
I am much older than a millenial and I hate it and won't do it again (Tesla or CarMax for me)! Millenials don't like it--there are people who do?
There are multiple reasons for "without even getting out of their cars, drive over to the Tesla store first!"

And I agree with the sentiment on this page (and some others), which I read as: TSLA is a risky stock in the short term so be careful if investing in it; in the long term it is not as risky, but still a risk, with potential for large reward.

 

[Drax7]

Wonder why Elon decided to go for gulf wing doors and complex seats,
What is the utility of these.

It has added so much complexity and hence delay.
The most difficult car in the world to build, is not a good thing.

 

[SteveG3]

I just bought about 30% of my basic trading share allowance here at $242.

I'm a long-term investor, but when I see the stock 25-30% below what I consider fair value I buy trading shares on top of my core holding.

Wednesday we found out a modest potential negative (share dilution with a secondary within the next year) is more likely than we thought. We also found out that a massive positive event is possible, but it's really hard to say how probable. I think the opportunity is so compelling that I think it's at least 50% likely, but we have very little to go on directly, and I'm sure some may estimate the chance Tesla pursue this opportunity at under 10%.

I'm talking about Tesla having their own Uber like service. This has the potential to add roughly $200 billion to Tesla's market cap by 2025. This may well be the third head of a Tesla Profit Monster, and it if they nail self-driving, the actual operational scale up is vastly easier than vehicle sales or energy storage. Nailing self-driving is quite a task, but, of course, we already know they are moving in that direction. I started a thread on why this maybe such a massive profit generator here in the investor forum.

Perhaps by Monday this gets attention via analyst reports, perhaps this stays stealth for years as energy storage did. I wanted to pick up some shares at these prices today in case this gets some attention before Monday's trading. I plan to add another 20% of my basic trading share allotment later today. As I said this could be years before it enters into Tesla's valuation, or they may not pursue this... clearly, this is not a quick trade move catalyst.

fwiw, Tesla has good reason to keep any such plans stealth... if other manufacturers with the capacity to competitively reaching self-driving capability on a timeline as good or better than Tesla focus on the extraordinary profitability of a self-driving Uber-like service, they will be highly incentivized to move more swiftly. I estimate that a self-driving vehicle built for such a service is at least 100X more profitable to a vehicle maker than selling the car to a consumer. Yup, instead of making $5K on the sale of a Model 3, Tesla may make over $500,000 over the course of a decade by placing it into such service. Sounds nutty, but check out the numbers yourself, or look at the new thread. Perhaps some analysts are currently modeling such a business and arriving at similar numbers.

 

[Gerardf]

Yep. agreed. No return to ATH quickly. "

Not so sure I agree. ATH in days, sure not. But once the Model-X configuration site gets active, followed by announcement of X-event, people will not want to miss the boat and get in and SP could go up at least as fast as it just went down.

For short term stock & option holders this was not a good week, but I actually saw a lot of very positive things in the ER (confirmation of GF, model-3 timeline, Tesla Energy progress) and added to my long term investement based on this ER.

Next step Model-X is less than three weeks from now, on my long-term multi year window that is actually same as tomorrow. The next phase in rolling out the 'secret masterplan' is upon us and I find the gameplay around it exciting and was looking forward to this for a year now.


This weeks action in the press feels a bit to much like manipulation to me to get weak longs scared and lower SP. There are some large shorts that had an interest to use the recent low volumes and leverage any bad news they could find in the ER. Seems like they had some success.

At the same time many analysist confirmed or increased their target SP. I would not be surprised to see even more institutional shareholders to step in now, happily taking the shares the weak longs just sold, and that just two weeks for this big event.

Todays share price very well might look like a steal just 2 weeks from today.


+++ Add you favorite disclaimer here yourself ++++

 

[aznt1217]

Wonder why Elon decided to go for gulf wing doors and complex seats,
What is the utility of these.

It has added so much complexity and hence delay.
The most difficult car in the world to build, is not a good thing.

For utility purposes. Pretty sure him and the team wanted Style. Performance. Utility. all in one package for no compromise.

They aren't Gulf Wings they are Falcon Wings. They do a few things -- help significantly with installing a car seat, protect you from rain as you are loading up your 5 kids (in Elon's case), and are good for when you are in a tight parking spot because you can get in the car.

The seats -- no idea what he has in store. I imagine that the seat will look good but have functionality like Honda's Magic seat or something like that. The ability to look sporty but yet fold flat into the floor (and possibly swivel?)

Most difficult vehicle in the world to build can be a good thing if they get it done at this phase of the company. It will make everything else a cake walk.

 

[Drax7]

I would have preferred the easiest car in the world to build.
Complexity adds exponentially to the number of problems.
Hopefully the product will differentiate itself further which should add to
its desirability.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Wonder why Elon decided to go for gulf wing doors and complex seats,
What is the utility of these.

It has added so much complexity and hence delay.
The most difficult car in the world to build, is not a good thing.

It is a good things if the complicated features meaningfully improve the utility (range, charging time, performance, resilience of the vehicle, etc). The Model X is a larger vehicle than the Mode S. This means Tesla has a lot more space to work with. Also, I'm still waiting for the 5-10 minute time for a full charge, that has been mentioned numerous times.

 

[roblab]

I would have preferred the easiest car in the world to build.
Complexity adds exponentially to the number of problems.
Hopefully the product will differentiate itself further which should add to
its desirability.

Interesting how many people don't get this and still opt for cars with thousands of parts bathed in oil to slow down wear, gnashing, whirling, whining. But as with gas cars, a falcon door is not that complex once you get it.

I don't see anyone getting excited about the double doors on vans that automatically open and close, which, when new, were probably difficult to get right.

Just give Tesla time. I think the doors are fine. The problem seems to be the suppliers, now. For all that complex trim.

 

[Noble Ninja]

I'm talking about Tesla having their own Uber like service. This has the potential to add roughly $200 billion to Tesla's market cap by 2025. This may well be the third head of a Tesla Profit Monster, and it if they nail self-driving, the actual operational scale up is vastly easier than vehicle sales or energy storage. Nailing self-driving is quite a task, but, of course, we already know they are moving in that direction. I started a thread on why this maybe such a massive profit generator here in the investor forum.

...

I estimate that a self-driving vehicle built for such a service is at least 100X more profitable to a vehicle maker than selling the car to a consumer. Yup, instead of making $5K on the sale of a Model 3, Tesla may make over $500,000 over the course of a decade by placing it into such service. Sounds nutty, but check out the numbers yourself, or look at the new thread. Perhaps some analysts are currently modeling such a business and arriving at similar numbers.

Very interesting insights and makes a lot of sense (and dollars). When Elon said he doesn't want to answer the question about opening an Uber-like service of their own, I thought it was because there isn't any current or future plans but wants to leave the option open without pre-maturely implying they were, instead of keeping confidential a plan already in place. We can't confirm either way though but similiar to how cell carriers make way more revenue off monthly subscriptions (reoccurring fees) than selling devices (once in a few years per customer), a service-oriented business model could be a potentially huge revenue stream.

 

[Drax7]

Interesting how many people don't get this and still opt for cars with thousands of parts bathed in oil to slow down wear, gnashing, whirling, whining. But as with gas cars, a falcon door is not that complex once you get it.

I don't see anyone getting excited about the double doors on vans that automatically open and close, which, when new, were probably difficult to get right.

Just give Tesla time. I think the doors are fine. The problem seems to be the suppliers, now. For all that complex trim.

The most difficult car to build in the world, are elons words,
the improvement in utility seems marginal. The D and 90 kwh and
driving assistance software are very relevant, the cool stuff might be of marginal utility.

Cool does sell, don't underestimate cool, we shall see.
i.e. people pay 4500 for cool wheels,