Going back to the Uber-like service, I just thought of the idea that even in the rare situation that supply exceeds demand (when the Uber-like service is running), the remaining inventory sitting around could just be put towards the Uber-like service. This ensures there would never be sitting inventory (the extra supply would always have a place to go).
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Going back to the Uber-like service, I just thought of the idea that even in the rare situation that supply exceeds demand (when the Uber-like service is running), the remaining inventory sitting around could just be put towards the Uber-like service. This ensures there would never be sitting inventory (the extra supply would always have a place to go).
Yes, re pattern. As far as "fits", consider this,
-Elon famously made the 2025 Apple market cap projection
-If that's to happen by 2025 they would need something like 10 GigaFactories and another 5+ auto plants by 2025
- Elon recently stated that they are not likely to start on another GF until GF1 is pretty well completed or close to it (I think this was at the annual meeting in June)
It seems nearly operationally impossible that Tesla could go from 1 GF and one auto plant in say 2018 to 10 GF, and 5+ auto plants by 2025. These are massive projects... even if demand and capital are there, building several of these simultaneously having only build one before seems nearly impossible. So, it makes sense that Tesla has at least one other major business we do not know about that is markedly operationally easier to ramp up than stationary storage or vehicle production. A pay-per-ride service seems to fit the bill very well.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Is $240 buying opportunity?
In my opinion - NO, unless $245 is broken upwards... retested and rally can occur.
Current trend is clearly down, and $287 was top.
If we go down - 210-220 will be support. If that's broken we will go to 180....and if broken.... then 150... and finally 130 should be "LOW". Not kidding. Hopefully that won't happen.... But nobody knows
In my opinion - NO, unless $245 is broken upwards... retested and rally can occur.
Current trend is clearly down, and $287 was top.
If we go down - 210-220 will be support. If that's broken we will go to 180....and if broken.... then 150... and finally 130 should be "LOW". Not kidding. Hopefully that won't happen.... But nobody knows
Starting to see where these numbers run into "too good to be true." Tesla can only command that kind of return while they are effectively the lone supplier of self-driving cars in a market. It's possible Tesla may have a couple of years lead on competitors, but eventually it would seem the savings of automating the job of the driver will largely be passed on to the consumer rather than retained by the vehicle owner when multiple players can provide these fleets and supply and demand set a price. Tesla may create a moat for a period of time in some specific cities if they can lock up a period of exclusivity for offering an entire fleet before anyone else has something to offer. This may be a nice added business for Tesla, but not on the scale of my initial estimates. I suppose if consumer behavior changed enough and people who currently purchase a car switched to this kind of pay-per-ride service, it's still possible the business could be a profit generator on the scale of Tesla Energy and the vehicle sales business... but a number of variables there to try to forecast well.
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Is $240 buying opportunity?
In my opinion - NO, unless $245 is broken upwards... retested and rally can occur.
Current trend is clearly down, and $287 was top.
If we go down - 210-220 will be support. If that's broken we will go to 180....and if broken.... then 150... and finally 130 should be "LOW". Not kidding. Hopefully that won't happen.... But nobody knows
I thought you said yesterday that we're going back to 260 and someone even agreed to that. change of plan?
i've always felt tesla's battery swapping technology was perfect/destined for a taxi service. it allows a taxi company (tesla is actually the taxi company in this case) to operate tesla cabs 24/7 with no downtime for charging (in addition, all of the batteries can be charged off peak for the cheapest electricity costs).
surfside
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
everman
Member
I bought some shares for a little less than $240 today. I expect one bump in price in the near future and as many as four. First bump will be the Model X online configuration and related news. The next three will be announcements for Model S referral winners for North America, Europe and Asia. After that I don't see too much until Q3 ER.
Anyone taken a look on eBay? Many people are offering to give away the $1000 incentive they receive when someone uses their referral link. It looks like there have been a lot of buyers. It seems many people who want to buy the Founders Series Model X, or who want to receive a special factory tour, are willing to give buyers the $1000 referral bonus for free.
Someone is even offering to give people $1500 Store Credit from their eBay store + $500 to use their referral link + $1000 form using a referral link = $3500.
In California:
$7500 for Federal Tax Credit + $2500 for State Cash Rebate + $2000 for referral value = $12,000 of the retail price.
In Louisiana:
$7500 for Federal Tax Credit + $8000 for State Cash Rebate + $2000 for referral value = $17,500 of the retail price.
Also, in many states and countries, Electric Vehicles are exempt from sales tax.
Incentives for Plug-in Hybrids and Electric Cars | PluginCars.com
Someone is even offering to give people $1500 Store Credit from their eBay store + $500 to use their referral link + $1000 form using a referral link = $3500.
In California:
$7500 for Federal Tax Credit + $2500 for State Cash Rebate + $2000 for referral value = $12,000 of the retail price.
In Louisiana:
$7500 for Federal Tax Credit + $8000 for State Cash Rebate + $2000 for referral value = $17,500 of the retail price.
Also, in many states and countries, Electric Vehicles are exempt from sales tax.
Incentives for Plug-in Hybrids and Electric Cars | PluginCars.com
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My take on this is slightly different.
I don't think that Elon's prior promises were completely priced in. My guess is that many market participants bought TSLA over the past few weeks in order to gamble on a blowout quarter possibly pushing the price up from the 250-260 range into the 300's. When the results were "business as usual, no big announcements", the gamblers entered sell orders as quickly as possible.
There is still a lot of skepticism both here and generally about Elon's recent promises. Autopilot still isn't complete nearly a year after announcement. Torque sleep was very late. Model X is almost 2 years late. The pattern over the past few years is that Tesla does deliver what Elon promises... but the timing is very uncertain. This leads a lot of entities to place bets because they don't want to be caught "missing out".
I can see a small bump upwards occurring once Tesla makes the Model X design studio public (3 weeks from now?), and a larger bump once Model X deliveries begin (6 weeks from now?), but I don't see any major movement as likely until then.
I really hope that Tesla avoids most of this drama where Model 3 is concerned. While I understand that Model X was a bit of a "side project" to the Secret Plan, and that Tesla therefore had some latitude to try unconventional things with the vehicle, it seems like a stupid things are holding up production. A :cursing: second row of seats and :cursing: trim pieces shouldn't be a holdup at this stage of the game. It's ridiculous. The engineer in me cringes at things that become overly complicated when they don't have to be overly complicated. Fortunately I think I remember Tesla officials stating something to the effect of Model 3 being less "adventurous" relative to the X.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Elon has vacillated on this in public.
The last I read directly from him is that their will be a "less adventurous version" then "something like we have never seen on the road." My reading was standardish sedan and adventurous crossover. Similar to MS and MX.
Hopefully no new feature like Tesla handles to delay M3. Worlds best bang for the buck advanced powertrain in a standard entry level luxury glider. Then sell millions. Repeat.
As long as promises are delivered, I think investors are willing to overlook delays. After-all, most people do have other things in their lives that take priority right? right?
I mean, the future of transportation is inevitably going to be a hangout room on an electric skateboard that drives itself. I'd like to see how his vision pans out... I want to see it without compromises. That vision is what shapes all future vehicles.
The iPhone wasnt a success because it had computer parts in a phone - it had been done before. It was the apps marketplace that changed the paradigm of personal computing and ultimately grew the pie bigger for anyone to partake. Granted, this is a car and not some easily acquired consumer electronic, the vision has to be just as grand if not grander (sp?)
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Lump: Thanks for the link to the 10-Q!
I skimmed the document quickly. My takeaways: Tesla increased R&D spending by a significant amount in 2015 over 2014. Model X still on track to launch at the end of September, but there are supplier challenges. Transition to production of both Model S and Model X on the same line may pose challenges, based on prior experience. Model 3 has not been finalized. Gigafactory has cost over 200M so far, and the facility should become operational in Q1 2016.
Um, there also appears to be Employee Benefits information accidentally posted. "
I won't post specifics about benefits, in order to preserve confidentiality (no $ amounts or other numerics), but I think it is important info.
Generally speaking, the Health insurance options are standard fare, with emphasis on plans with deductibles, and Tesla contributions to employee HSAs to partially offset deductibles. Like many companies, Tesla offers additional HSA contributions if employees participate in exercise programs and refrain from smoking. "True cost" (employee + employer contribution) of medical plans appears to be in line with what I've seen in other corporations.
401(k) contributions are "opt-out", starting at a low % contribution that automatically goes into a lifecycle fund (a fund of mutual funds that gradually becomes more conservative over time). There appears to be no match. This is in line with recent corporate trends based on studies that show that "opt-in" programs have much lower employee participation rates. Stock purchase discounts and stock awards with vesting periods are also available.
Perks include childcare help and concierge services, as well as access to counselors on everything from financial planning to quitting smoking.
Why does this matter to shareholders?
It may have some relevance to Tesla's ability to retain top talent. My evaluation is that while these benefits do not strike me as outstanding, they do seem fair, and in line with what I understand are good practices.
I skimmed the document quickly. My takeaways: Tesla increased R&D spending by a significant amount in 2015 over 2014. Model X still on track to launch at the end of September, but there are supplier challenges. Transition to production of both Model S and Model X on the same line may pose challenges, based on prior experience. Model 3 has not been finalized. Gigafactory has cost over 200M so far, and the facility should become operational in Q1 2016.
Um, there also appears to be Employee Benefits information accidentally posted. "
Confidential Treatment Requested by Tesla Motors, Inc.
" is in the header of this section. Family members are humorously referred to as "passengers".I won't post specifics about benefits, in order to preserve confidentiality (no $ amounts or other numerics), but I think it is important info.
Generally speaking, the Health insurance options are standard fare, with emphasis on plans with deductibles, and Tesla contributions to employee HSAs to partially offset deductibles. Like many companies, Tesla offers additional HSA contributions if employees participate in exercise programs and refrain from smoking. "True cost" (employee + employer contribution) of medical plans appears to be in line with what I've seen in other corporations.
401(k) contributions are "opt-out", starting at a low % contribution that automatically goes into a lifecycle fund (a fund of mutual funds that gradually becomes more conservative over time). There appears to be no match. This is in line with recent corporate trends based on studies that show that "opt-in" programs have much lower employee participation rates. Stock purchase discounts and stock awards with vesting periods are also available.
Perks include childcare help and concierge services, as well as access to counselors on everything from financial planning to quitting smoking.
Why does this matter to shareholders?
It may have some relevance to Tesla's ability to retain top talent. My evaluation is that while these benefits do not strike me as outstanding, they do seem fair, and in line with what I understand are good practices.
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I did a quick scan & a few tidbits were interesting to me (understanding 10-Q's are filled with potential risks)
We expect our long-term sales outside of North America will be almost half of our worldwide automotive revenue. Despite initial challenges in China, we plan to continue to invest in our infrastructure there as we believe that China could be one of our largest markets within a few years. However, as compared to markets in the United States and Europe, we have relatively limited experience in China and other Asian markets; thus, we may face continuing difficulties meeting our future expansion plans in Asia.
We continue to invest in construction of the building and utilities at the Gigafactory and in production equipment for battery, module and pack production. We will be responsible for the overall management of the Gigafactory and will engage with partners who have significant experience in battery cell and material production. We have partnered with Panasonic to manufacture and supply us with battery cells and we anticipate bringing on additional partners to create a fully integrated industrial complex. Although planning discussions with production and supply chain partners continue to progress, to-date we have not formalized any agreements with any other partners. Given the size and complexity of this undertaking, the cost of building and operating the Gigafactory could exceed our current expectations and the Gigafactory may take longer to bring online than we anticipate.
We expect our long-term sales outside of North America will be almost half of our worldwide automotive revenue. Despite initial challenges in China, we plan to continue to invest in our infrastructure there as we believe that China could be one of our largest markets within a few years. However, as compared to markets in the United States and Europe, we have relatively limited experience in China and other Asian markets; thus, we may face continuing difficulties meeting our future expansion plans in Asia.
We continue to invest in construction of the building and utilities at the Gigafactory and in production equipment for battery, module and pack production. We will be responsible for the overall management of the Gigafactory and will engage with partners who have significant experience in battery cell and material production. We have partnered with Panasonic to manufacture and supply us with battery cells and we anticipate bringing on additional partners to create a fully integrated industrial complex. Although planning discussions with production and supply chain partners continue to progress, to-date we have not formalized any agreements with any other partners. Given the size and complexity of this undertaking, the cost of building and operating the Gigafactory could exceed our current expectations and the Gigafactory may take longer to bring online than we anticipate.
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