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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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jhm
Well-Known Member
I don't know, I hear the competition is heating up for next year, some mysterious X.
Interestingly, CR gives the Model S a rating of 99 out of 100 (and they didn't even test a P85 or P85D). If the Model X is as good as we think it will be, will it break 100?
If volume can go to 11, why not have an SUV that ranks 110? :smile:
Edit: Too Funny! I hadn't seen the video before posting this, and they mention it 'going to 11'. Another interesting tidbit in the video posted above, the CR reviewers ask "Do you want us to get a P85D?". Let's tell them "YES!!"
Back on topic: Any chance (barring seriously bad news) that I can pick up TSLA under 200 any time soon?
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I also anticipated a post ER rally followed by a bear attack, but it comes sooner than I expect. I sold out my June 220 calls this morning with no loss, last Friday it was 40% green. What a volatility!
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm not sure what is so dramatically different about 204-205 vs 200 or even 199? At least regarding a stock purchase. It really looks like we are building more and more support on the 200 level even today we deflected away from the 202s rather quickly as I was expecting on my options for us to get at least into the 201s but it sadly never happened (and really hurt some of my puts I was trying. Never try to jump on a train that has left the station during the middle of the day... it never seems to work out for me... but I digress). But if you are trying to acquire actual stock, I am not sure what the difference here in a couple dollars actually makes on the purchase when you are likely planning short-ish term (less than 1 year) to be back above 250 and depending on your holding period significantly higher than that. If you think TSLA is worth the purchase at 200, then this is pretty much close enough to buy in. You could also cost average. Buy today and then a week from today.
Thanks. You're right about that from a stock purchase perspective. I had an order in today for some June 260 calls, and I think the order would have executed had TSLA dropped below 200.
I had expected the recent post-earnings bloodletting to last about a week, but I called that one wrong. I still have a (very) small position in the stock, which is of course free for me at this point, having bought most of my shares around $30. But I wouldn't mind picking up some calls and possibly executing a few to increase my long term position.
You disregarded the significance of the note and seemed pretty bullish less than a day ago: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 231
What's changed besides positive Consumer Reports news?
mejojo
Active Member
Please don't get me wrong...you don't owe me any predictions, but you are one of the guys I pay attention to when you say something.
Can you please shove my nose in what you wrote because I missed it and I don't want to miss it again?
Last thing I saw you write about prospects for this week was on Friday that you were confused and were sitting on the sidelines. Was that it?
Pretty much. I don't like to give the appearance of providing direct investment advice, but if you did feel like watching me closely, you would have seen when I cashed out. On the sidelines = no short-term holdings at all. I should state that I only trade options with about 5% of my investment holdings in Tesla. The rest are long and strong, buy and hold common shares. Those stay where they are until volume production of the Model 3 is underway at the very, very least.
Also, I really have to credit our old buddy Causalien with sharing his thoughts. I was pretty much using him for confirmation bias without his consent
. I like to pay attention to his musings.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
That black with bits of red here and there looks great. I'd like to see one with more red showing.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
My 8 ball indicator has been continuously diverging from TSLA ever since $260. it'll either fall back down to meet TSLA or TSLA will rise up to meet it. In any case, I am doing a convergence pair trade on these two.
I have a question for 8 Ball.
New car delivery's excluding the P85D's have been pushed back into May, is this a result of production\supply issues (West Coast Port strike) or continued strong demand? Any change in 1qtr guidance?
#198 Website wait times for delivery change - Page 20
New car delivery's excluding the P85D's have been pushed back into May, is this a result of production\supply issues (West Coast Port strike) or continued strong demand? Any change in 1qtr guidance?
#198 Website wait times for delivery change - Page 20
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
That's outside the scope of 8 ball's capabilities.
I would say port strike issue as the supplies contracts are already negotiated in advance (suppliers need time to ramp up too) and production is constant followed by bouts of ramp up. So the rate at which supply/production is coming in should be stable. The other reason for delivery date delay is if there is a pick up in demand.
I would guess that demand should have peaked around the D announcement. So if the shift in delivery date happened before the port strike (I don't follow that thread so I don't know) then it most definitely is caused by increase in demand.
These two together made me conclude it is the port strikes.
The weird thing is that inbound supply deliveries doesn't seem to be affected. I am guessing this strike would mean the Canadian port in BC will become more prosperous.
That said... it is still the production that counts and not deliveries since there's 1 quarter worth of ModelS to deliver. Until cash burn makes it absolutely necessary to seek cash (1 year assuming no more sales) If the port strike does not end by June. Then we have a problem as that is when we transition from relying on S to relying on X.
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