The lack of follow through down after the earnings created its own dynamic. The only natural buyers would be the shorts or sold out Bulls thinking they missed the lows. But no new bullish fundamental data is out that would sustain a rally. Then one trivial negative comment and we lose 15 dollars. We are in a sideways market in my view until new fundamental information is out.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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The local port was shut down for several days around President's Day. It sounds like it was a coordinated West Coast "lockout". It is difficult to import when ships are sitting at anchor, waiting in line, with no one to take the containers off the ships. The Ports started slowing down in early November or late October. They slowed down more as each week as time passed without a contract. Ports were essentially crippled by New Years. The impacts were significant to trucking and rail.
Deal reached to settle West Coast ports dispute: Full operation by Saturday night - Strange Bedfellows Politics News
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There has been plenty of TSLA bashing on TV in recent days. Fortunately there was some criticism of the BOA note too.
Oh the day is still young, indeed. Another 5hrs and 20 minutes to watch the stock slip. Or maybe not, hopefully?
I'm really fed up with this story of demand thrown at us all over again. All this would imply that TM Management is simply lying, and has been lying for a while. Although for sure one can exercise a critical judgement, here there is no tangible sign or fact that shows or indicates there is stagnation, lack or no demand. This is ridiculous. Unless you are totally biased, or totally insane, all we see is a company that has been selling an increasing number of cars quarter over quarter with no sign of weakness. I mean, sales do not stop from one day to the other do they? Sure Tesla will come to a point where natural demand peaks, nobody knows what that's going to be: 40K, 50k 60K? But I think it is credible that such a car, on world wide basis, sells at 50K units a year at least...
I'm really fed up with this story of demand thrown at us all over again. All this would imply that TM Management is simply lying, and has been lying for a while. Although for sure one can exercise a critical judgement, here there is no tangible sign or fact that shows or indicates there is stagnation, lack or no demand. This is ridiculous. Unless you are totally biased, or totally insane, all we see is a company that has been selling an increasing number of cars quarter over quarter with no sign of weakness. I mean, sales do not stop from one day to the other do they? Sure Tesla will come to a point where natural demand peaks, nobody knows what that's going to be: 40K, 50k 60K? But I think it is credible that such a car, on world wide basis, sells at 50K units a year at least...
If we take this graph at face value, then we have a few things to explain. Mainly production now is quite a bit higher than in 2013 while this graph tells us battery import is about the same. So either Tesla was running a huge surplus in battery import in 2013 (unlikely given they needed cash and that they were battery constrained according to official sources). Or they are now importing less batteries than they are using and ran up a big surplus in 2014. If so, we should see this reflect in the quarterly reports in the inventories. Don't have time to do that exercise now but it could be worthwhile.
Regarding the motor deliveries being flat this quarter and previous quarter : that one is certainly believable but is not new information. Tesla guided to produce about the same amount of cars this quarter as last quarter.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I strongly distrust "moving average" charts or, more accurately, I distrust trying to explaining the timing in MA charts. The process of averaging discards potentially useful information. Realist's thesis remains, Elon is telling lies. I believe Elon more than Realist's conjectures from a few data points.
Maybe 4 wheel drive is a lie too, maybe its only 3 wheel drive, so much FUD to discredit the firm.
Asteroids approaching earth will be next.
Tesla is not lying about being production constraint, the consequence would be the legal annihilation of the firm.
On the one hand they can't get enough batteries, or the ports are striking, so their production
risks being curtailed, and on the other they are faking production issues to manipulate demand perception.
Shutting down the assembly line the first week of January for vacation fits which narrative?
Asteroids approaching earth will be next.
Tesla is not lying about being production constraint, the consequence would be the legal annihilation of the firm.
On the one hand they can't get enough batteries, or the ports are striking, so their production
risks being curtailed, and on the other they are faking production issues to manipulate demand perception.
Shutting down the assembly line the first week of January for vacation fits which narrative?
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They shut down on the first week of every quarter for maintenance and a deserved break for some. It has been that way for quite some time.
There's a new joint note about Apple and Tesla (although mostly Apple) from analysts covering both stocks at Morgan Stanley, Katy Huberty and Adam Jonas. There's also a link in this article about how production capacity is everything in the car business.
Apple: First the Dash, Then Perhaps a Whole Car, Muses Morgan Stanley - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
Apple: First the Dash, Then Perhaps a Whole Car, Muses Morgan Stanley - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
Of course, it was a rhetorical question.
They worked like crazy through Xmas to get their production up to meet their projections.
Regardless of what you think of the argument that Tesla's demand is slipping, I don't think it should be a mystery why bears are obsessed over it. You can disagree but it is a reasonable and valid thing to discuss and weaponize. If I were a bear that is what I would think about. It is a fact that TM needs pretty consistent demand for S/X until the 3 comes out. I think that if the 3 comes out (mostly) on time and on budget, it is game over for the bears. At that point, demand is through the roof and TM is a mid-major automaker that just needs to build lots of factories and take over the world. So between now and then *if* Tesla's markets got saturated and demand sagged they would not have the cash to bridge them to the model 3 release, and the stock would take a gigantic hit at least. And, if you are a bear you are inclined to think this MUST happen. SURELY the world will only buy so many 100k cars. SURELY TM is just saturating CA, then the east coast, then other markets and are desperate to sell China the 20k cars it will buy before it is saturated. So they are desperately sniffing around to find the evidence this is happening.
They are demand "truthers". Facts won't change their opinion.
What they are missing is that TM is creating it's own demand. My previously most expensive car was about $25k. I like the value proposition of my $100k Tesla because it is cheap to own, I think it will run for a long long time and in the meantime it is the best car money can buy. TM is expanding the luxury car segment.
They are demand "truthers". Facts won't change their opinion.
What they are missing is that TM is creating it's own demand. My previously most expensive car was about $25k. I like the value proposition of my $100k Tesla because it is cheap to own, I think it will run for a long long time and in the meantime it is the best car money can buy. TM is expanding the luxury car segment.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Since we won't get any Model X unveil event until June. This is the perfect time for shorts to attack.
I personally think it is a bad choice. But Elon probably sees the Model X stealing all ModelS customer, so he wants to sell all the modelS on the order book first. Otherwise, I don't understand why he wouldn't do an unveil event before the first delivery to drum up demand.
I personally think it is a bad choice. But Elon probably sees the Model X stealing all ModelS customer, so he wants to sell all the modelS on the order book first. Otherwise, I don't understand why he wouldn't do an unveil event before the first delivery to drum up demand.
I completely agree, and I expected and anticipated this bear attack pattern rather well by cashing out short-term plays ahead of it. It's a fairly weak one compared to some prior assaults as they don't have much credible ammunition, and I'm looking for another good quick-strike entry point for some snap-back profits soon. Timing will be key. Always is.
mejojo
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
Because they don't need to. They can't even deliver in this year (and most of next year) enough Model X to the people who have already ordered the car. Unless the Model X is a total flop, by the time the backlog catches up with new orders and we get down to a ~2-3 month waiting period of new orders to delivery, there will be more than enough demand to sustain them.
Tesla as a company is no longer an "unknown nobody". They successfully delivered on the Roadster and now have successfully delivered on the Model S, a car that was wholly built and produced in-house. Many people already know of Tesla, the Model S just doesn't meet their need (either price or utility). So a Model S sale spreads the word about the company, and then 6-8 months of Model X will spread the word of the car. And drumming up demand at this point is only going to increase the backlog sooner which is something they don't need nor do they really want.
Nice CR accolade as: "The Tesla Model S is Consumer Reports' top pick — for the second year in a row!"
AlMc, you beat me, but it was less than 3.2 seconds between our posts!
Hopefully this kind of news will eventually silence some bears!
There sure must be a huge demand problem for this car...
Because, certainly nobody wants to buy "the best car you can buy, period?"
AlMc, you beat me, but it was less than 3.2 seconds between our posts!
Hopefully this kind of news will eventually silence some bears!
There sure must be a huge demand problem for this car...
Because, certainly nobody wants to buy "the best car you can buy, period?"
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