Gerardf
Active Member
Interesting, and just as you posted that, downwards pressure started. It is a low volume day, so that helps them.
Lets see, odds of the 215 to expire worthless is 90+ %
TSLA Options Chain
Lets hope these guys loose their money
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Interesting, and just as you posted that, downwards pressure started. It is a low volume day, so that helps them.
Lets see, odds of the 215 to expire worthless is 90+ %
TSLA Options Chain
Lets hope these guys loose their money
Interesting, and just as you posted that, downwards pressure started. It is a low volume day, so that helps them.
Lets see, odds of the 215 to expire worthless is 90+ %
TSLA Options Chain
Lets hope these guys loose their money
Amen to the hope, but the reality is that on thin trading days TSLA is sometimes manipulated in a major way, and today's an excellent example of that happening right now.
Edit: The good news is another name for a manipulated short-term drop is "buying opportunity". What goes down on manipulation seldom stays down.
I'm guessing that some of the bigger players in the shorts community had a plan to do a big short-sell Friday afternoon and see if they could trigger some stop-losses below 215. This is the reason why so many 215 puts that expire today were sold yesterday.
My guess is that for this effort to be successful the SP has to keep heading down without too many reversals. If there's a big enough reversal, people will start buying in again at these prices and the plan loses its momentum.
Edit: You really don't need to push the SP far below 215 for those super-cheap Jun 17 puts to earn a bunch of money. This play may be more about making money from the puts than making money from the short positions.
Edit, Edit: The downward push is running into rocky terrain below 215. If the short-sellers don't restore the downward momentum soon, the plan is going to fail.
My guess is that for this effort to be successful the SP has to keep heading down without too many reversals. If there's a big enough reversal, people will start buying in again at these prices and the plan loses its momentum.
Edit: You really don't need to push the SP far below 215 for those super-cheap Jun 17 puts to earn a bunch of money. This play may be more about making money from the puts than making money from the short positions.
Edit, Edit: The downward push is running into rocky terrain below 215. If the short-sellers don't restore the downward momentum soon, the plan is going to fail.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla and Elon Musk are ‘years ahead of the competition’, says billionaire TSLA investor Ron Baron
TSLA Stock: Will Tesla Motors Inc REALLY Be Worth $600 Billion?
Ron Baron Talks Stocks (TSLA, UA) | Investopedia
My interpretation is that he doesn't believe it's impossible, but highly unlikely. I partially disagree with his GF analysis. VW and Diamler are both talking about building GF's. The capital is clearly not a moat. One moat is obtaining the resulting price. The other moat is the vision (to spend the money for the GF, OTA, Supercharging etc.).
Don't they lose money unless it falls below 215 by the premium amount on the contract?
I'm guessing the short-sellers were the ones buying the puts. Yesterday, it looked really safe by afternoon to sell Jun 17 215 puts, so you probably could find lots of sellers. The current premium for Jun 17 215 puts is 60 cents, but I suspect the puts were cheaper when the stock price was higher.
Edit: The downward momentum is broken. The scheme has failed. I just bought two calls to take advantage of the situation ; )
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everyone sounds so mellow today. can I have some of what you guys had?
We got it from the man himself.
Elon Musk on Twitter
- I HOPE YOU HAVE A GOOD DAY AND ANY IDEAS YOU HAVE AND STUFF GO FOR THEM NO MATTER WHAT NIGGAS SAY SHOUT OUT ELON MUSK
9,947 retweets17,710 likes
Elon MuskVerified account@elonmusk
@****tyler Thanks Tyler
This is relaxed Elon. If he's feeling that way, something good must be cooking at the Tesla Factory.
Sparky
Member
So, the above was my post a week ago. I guess I got caught in a long squeeze. A bunch of us must had stop losses around 220 which seemed safe except for the stupid suspension-gate.
So, I let things rest for a week; took note of comments here about $215 being a likely bottom due to the recent major buy at that price and used about 50% of my cash today to buy back in around $214.75. I'm slightly concerned about Brexit but am on vacation next week and will have limited access or desire for trading (hiking, fly-fishing in Utah).
Still, I figure I can straddle the Brexit with the rest of my cash ready to go when I return.
Even though I'm in the DTU camp, I always use trailing stops to preserve my cash. It has saved me from many a nasty spanking from macro events although I'm often late to get back into the party when things turn around so I make less than someone who understands the timing.
Cautiously optimistic that next week won't be a major macro flop but stop loss set to $202 just in case.
Thanks to all here for the analyses.
The afternoon push downward from $219 to $215 was not unusual on a triple witching day (quarterly options & futures expirations) for a stock with large open interest in its options. I don't see it as related so much to any options trading yesterday or today, but to the options positions that would have been created throughout the quarter. The professional traders (mainly hedge funds) would generally have written (sold) options, while retail traders would generally have bought options.
No matter what the theoretical max pain was after the close yesterday, it appeared today that a close at $215 was going to leave those who had already written TSLA puts and calls with the greatest profits, and those who had earlier bought them with the greatest losses.
In the relatively light trading in TSLA shares today, hedge funds could have shoved the share price down toward $215 with short sales to allow them to keep virtually all of the $215 put and call premiums they had earlier received. Weak longs (including day traders) would have been unwitting accomplices as their stop loss limits were triggered.
Those conjectured hedge funds would likely cover their short positions on Monday. Any losses due to a probable up move in the share price on Monday morning should not be as significant to the hedge funds as their options gains today.
No matter what the theoretical max pain was after the close yesterday, it appeared today that a close at $215 was going to leave those who had already written TSLA puts and calls with the greatest profits, and those who had earlier bought them with the greatest losses.
In the relatively light trading in TSLA shares today, hedge funds could have shoved the share price down toward $215 with short sales to allow them to keep virtually all of the $215 put and call premiums they had earlier received. Weak longs (including day traders) would have been unwitting accomplices as their stop loss limits were triggered.
Those conjectured hedge funds would likely cover their short positions on Monday. Any losses due to a probable up move in the share price on Monday morning should not be as significant to the hedge funds as their options gains today.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
None of the quotes you brought up contradict what I remarked on, i.e. that I agree with Ron Baron conclusion that it is now to late for big auto companies to catch up with Tesla, because they are too far ahead.
And none of these quotes support the impression which you apparently got that Baron "meant by too late as too late for Tesla to fail".
So you lost me here. It is perfectly OK, though, if we disagree on this, so I'll leave it at that.
Thanks for your input, Curt. I'm still feeling something is strange here, though, because of this story which said that an unusually large number of TSLA options were sold yesterday and that transactions included a particularly large number of 215 Jun17 2016 puts. A trader would have to be dumb buying lots of TSLA 215 puts that expire the next day when the stock is heading up to a 218 close, when the maximum pain is stated as 222.50, and when 215 has shown itself to be a strong support level. The only reasonable explanation for buying LOTS of 215 puts that expire the next day is that someone had reason to believe that TSLA would fall below 215 by today, which appears to most of us to be a real longshot. Doesn't it make more sense for the people who bought the ton of 215 puts that expired today to be the ones short-selling this afternoon, instead of the market makers?
Am I wrong in seeing positives for a Brexit leave for Tesla? The Germans effectively run the EU and will obviously enact policies that benefit German car makers.
The ridiculous 10% import tariff on cars built outside the EU is one such example.
The ridiculous 10% import tariff on cars built outside the EU is one such example.
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