vin 95XX model X delivered this coming Monday in CA! I know they batch vins and probably prioritizing CA deliveries for end of quarter, but I am getting excited for delivery number update!
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Gerardf
Active Member
I think this story clearly tells how far ahead Tesla's AutoPilot is :
Mercedes-Benz's 2017 E-Class won't let you nap behind the wheel
Later in the article he author is making a big effort to make up some excuses for MB's E-Class DrivePilot, but for any reader it is clear that they are far, far behind. Reading his experience I am pretty sure MB will leave a much worse first impression on AP features in a testdrive.
Another problem for MB , not mentioned in the article, will be that they do not have OTA to continuously roll-out small and bigger improvements. And of course no AP learning feedback to MB.
I am looking forward seeing more such test-drive comparisons between Tesla & MB confirming Tesla's lead
Mercedes-Benz's 2017 E-Class won't let you nap behind the wheel
Later in the article he author is making a big effort to make up some excuses for MB's E-Class DrivePilot, but for any reader it is clear that they are far, far behind. Reading his experience I am pretty sure MB will leave a much worse first impression on AP features in a testdrive.
Another problem for MB , not mentioned in the article, will be that they do not have OTA to continuously roll-out small and bigger improvements. And of course no AP learning feedback to MB.
I am looking forward seeing more such test-drive comparisons between Tesla & MB confirming Tesla's lead
Gerasimental
Member
I don't see what's wrong with this. The car stopped, didn't it?
Self driving provided by Cyberdyne Systems
Tesla is far ahead of others in many areas, not just automated driving, but it is just one part of the equation. Another is, to borrow Elon's term, "velocity of innovation", and on this metric Tesla is far ahead of others as well. So the question is: how the big automotive companies, with an ICE stone on their necks, could possibly catch up? I agree with Ron Baron's determination: it is too late...
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Porsche engineer talks smack, and gets it wrong:
Right, after two launches the battery is empty and you're stranded....
Porsche Engineer Reportedly Calls Tesla's Ludicrous Mode a "Facade"
Right, after two launches the battery is empty and you're stranded....
Porsche Engineer Reportedly Calls Tesla's Ludicrous Mode a "Facade"
Generally positive Forbes article this morning featuring interview with fund manager Gorden Lam, explaining why it is reasonable to expect Tesla to meet the 500,000 vehicle production target in 2018:
"Regarding the market’s concern about Tesla’s ability to ramp up production, first generation cars will always run into issues on the assembly line. Here’s how it works: The production line is run at maximum output, building cars at a rapid rate and then it’s shut down to inspect the vehicles for any flaws. The manufacturing process is then retooled to fix any problems that have been uncovered after which the production line is turned back on, and it’s running at full capacity again.
Production may be slow for the first few months, but once a flawless run has been achieved, you can expect an instantaneous ramp-up, not a slow gradual one. Thus, while I do anticipate delays, all the bugs will be worked out such that Tesla will be able deliver 500,000 vehicles a year by 2018 – as long as the batteries are available. This is a key uncertainty as batteries remain in short supply."
Later in the article Lam says the main risk factor on hitting this goal is availability of lithium hydroxide at reasonable prices, but he seems to downplay the risk because he thinks Tesla's battery pack prices will drop to $250 in 2020 (lol).
Lam says he is "hoping for a pullback to the $150-160 range so I can accumulate more shares" before the stock hits $450 in about three years.
The Catalyst For Tesla Is Production
"Regarding the market’s concern about Tesla’s ability to ramp up production, first generation cars will always run into issues on the assembly line. Here’s how it works: The production line is run at maximum output, building cars at a rapid rate and then it’s shut down to inspect the vehicles for any flaws. The manufacturing process is then retooled to fix any problems that have been uncovered after which the production line is turned back on, and it’s running at full capacity again.
Production may be slow for the first few months, but once a flawless run has been achieved, you can expect an instantaneous ramp-up, not a slow gradual one. Thus, while I do anticipate delays, all the bugs will be worked out such that Tesla will be able deliver 500,000 vehicles a year by 2018 – as long as the batteries are available. This is a key uncertainty as batteries remain in short supply."
Later in the article Lam says the main risk factor on hitting this goal is availability of lithium hydroxide at reasonable prices, but he seems to downplay the risk because he thinks Tesla's battery pack prices will drop to $250 in 2020 (lol).
Lam says he is "hoping for a pullback to the $150-160 range so I can accumulate more shares" before the stock hits $450 in about three years.
The Catalyst For Tesla Is Production
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm pretty sure that Ron Barron explained what he meant by too late as too late for Tesla to fail, not too late for every ICE OEM to succeed, or even catch up.
Per kWh? Already less than $190 according to Tesla and according to Tesla the GF will reduce prices by at least 35% by the end of 2017.
I agree with his conclusion on the production, but his reasons are extremely lame. If he's correct the only thing Tesla needed to do to ramp the MX faster was to burst the line a few times. Sheesh!
In other words a typicality clueless analyst. Probably won't influence the SP. Unless you are equally clueless he opinion shouldn't have an impact on your own strategy.
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Interesting what a difference a headline makes.
This article could easily have the headline: "Top Fund Manager Predicts Tesla Will Meet Production Target of 500,000 Vehicles in 2018, Sets Price Target at $450," and the impact would be completely different.
Mind you we are all projecting, I believe in Teslas moat across many categories. in the short term I think we are well ahead with our advanced drive assist features. However, just because the current automakers are behind, is little reason to believe they will not either find a way to catch up over time, or, more likely that they will end up licensing autonomous driving IT from Google or someone similar. I don't have any cause to believe Tesla is well ahead of google, though I'm open to hearing otherwise.
I often read the argument that Teslas drive more miles daily than the cumulative number of google vehicles. While thats true, google has years of focus driving down surface streets, which is far more challenging than our current configuration of operating in highway environments.
This is not to say that we don't have a fantastic team thats pushing progress rapidly. Its more to say that Tesla is still a young business, trying to rapidly improve and innovate many things at once on stretched dollars. To think that we will be or stay ahead of giants like google over an extended period is.. overly optimistic in my opinion.
Krugerrand
Meow
I know, right? Haters be like: 'Unicorns don't exist, dummy!' I be like: 'But just wait, maybe tomorrow...'
i doubt it's initially run at maximum when they well know they have to debug
The system. Why waste so much before one car can be produced flawlessly.
Krugerrand
Meow
One reason they could run it that way is that employees are getting cars first. Must. Not. Forget. That. Means they can do things anyway they want and it'll be kept internally.
In fairness, I said it was a positive article, not a good one.
I know I am in the minority but I do think overall his prediction re 500,000 vehicles in 2018 is more likely than not to be correct, even though he may be a little off on some of the details. With the Model X, it appears to have taken 4-5 months to work out the bugs and get up to close to full production. I think it is reasonable to think that roughly the same timeline will apply to the Model 3, balancing simpler design v. need for conservatism in the ramp due to the higher volumes. I also think they will likely target a 600,000-700,000 vehicle production rate by 12/31/2018 to continue the ramp to 1,000,000 vehicles in 2020. The higher run rate at the end of the year will allow them to make up whatever shortfall they have from the first part of the year.
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This is a very positive piece of info. Here is the original post if anyone is interested:
It appears that the high production rate has sustained. That 2K/week (combined) production news wasn't a mere blip.
Is anyone closely tracking S production/deliveries? S had a faclift mid way through the quarter. Not sure if that meant any disruption in terms of production or deliveries.
In any case, this will be the last quarter of uncertainity. Q3 and out should be seeing robust production/delivery pace. Finally getting out of the woods...
I am pretty curious to see what did you base your remark on. Mine was based on this:
Baron said he's investing in Tesla CEO Elon Musk and the 14,000 workers at the electric-car maker. "The competition is not anywhere. They could have caught him four or five years ago. But they can't catch him now. he's too far ahead."
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