Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
What a bunch of jerks. Spreading FUD for their masters. Whining about subsidies, yet the oil burners have been subsidized for a century now and no one is allowed to charge them the real price for cleaning up the mess that was made extracting that oil. I stopped the WSJ a long time ago because it is all propaganda all the time. Those two idiots in the video are enjoying themselves slandering Tesla.
 
I just posted the complete version of this in the LT Thread. I hope DaveT, and others chime in.
I really wish some of you will respond with discussion of what is fair value for Tesla.

Clearly the current fair value, at the close on Friday June 17, was (check the SP) $215.43.

What you want to know of course is the future value, which depends on future events. Figuring that out is difficult because there are several interrelated factors, and those factors are not black and white. Between now and whenever you think tesla will produce over 100k M3's I think it could be a bumpy ride.

The main determinant of SP is income. In the past that has mostly meant auto production, but in the very near future TE will start having a huge impact on earnings...

Using half of DaveT's numbers for:
340k gets us to an SP of $315 by 2017
$407 based on 440k, by 2018
and over $630 (based on 750k or 850k) by 2019.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Intl Professor
One of his key points is that q2 is peak demand for MX, and that q3 will be abysmal. I pointed out that if you order a MX on the website today, you won't receive it in the US until end of September. So q3 slots are basically filled. Then just some flippant response to that.
All good banter i suppose!

Thanks Gene. It is interesting that while MX slots are almost filled for Q3, MS slots are only 3-4 weeks long. This could explain why MS 60 was reintroduced.

The reason for MX vs. MS wait list anomaly could be many. MS production line could be faster than MX, with fewer steps. Or, the demand for MS could have softened. I hope for the former :D
 
What a bunch of jerks. Spreading FUD for their masters. Whining about subsidies, yet the oil burners have been subsidized for a century now and no one is allowed to charge them the real price for cleaning up the mess that was made extracting that oil. I stopped the WSJ a long time ago because it is all propaganda all the time. Those two idiots in the video are enjoying themselves slandering Tesla.

Holman Jenkins has written almost identical anti-Tesla/Musk WSJ articles in the past. Surely he must know that Tesla paid off its government loan with interest and prepayment penalty nine years early in 2013, while the other auto and alternative energy companies in the same loan program still owe. Yet he keeps it up, and we can tell from the comments that the WSJ faithful lap it up. It really can't hurt the stock anymore, since Jenkins knows he is preaching to a choir that would never buy the car or stock and in many cases are already short it.

One must wonder if Jenkins and the WSJ have started receiving some of the $10-million per year that the Koch brothers and their associates plan to spend on FUD regarding government incentives for electric cars? The recent barrage of seemingly coordinated anti-Tesla articles appears to indicate that the mean spirited money has already started to flow.
 


some taxpayers qualify for some or all of the $7.5K EV tax credit, and undoubtably this increases to some extent the total number of Tesla's sold.

most taxpayers qualify for the mortgage interest deduction, and undoubtably, this increases the number of homes built, sold by realtors, and financed by banks.

where are all the WSJ (LA Times, etc.) articles from the last several decades blasting the homebuilders, realtors, and banks being aided by the mortgage interest deduction? I would not be shocked if the WSJ at some point voiced decent on the mortgage interest deduction, but has there been even one article in all these decades deriding homebuilders, realtors and banks over this?

it just doesn't make sense for the WSJ to be on the offensive with this indefensible mud slinging.
 
Last edited:
Holman Jenkins has written almost identical anti-Tesla/Musk WSJ articles in the past. Surely he must know that Tesla paid off its government loan with interest and prepayment penalty nine years early in 2013, while the other auto and alternative energy companies in the same loan program still owe. Yet he keeps it up, and we can tell from the comments that the WSJ faithful lap it up. It really can't hurt the stock anymore, since Jenkins knows he is preaching to a choir that would never buy the car or stock and in many cases are already short it.

One must wonder if Jenkins and the WSJ have started receiving some of the $10-million per year that the Koch brothers and their associates plan to spend on FUD regarding government incentives for electric cars? The recent barrage of seemingly coordinated anti-Tesla articles appears to indicate that the mean spirited money has already started to flow.

Curt, I suspect this also may have been an attempt to bully Jay Leno into not repeating these sorts of comments, and ensure that anyone hearing that Leno had something nice to say about Tesla who does a google search will find an aggressive, but false, rebuttal of what Leno said. I say "bully" because, the author and WSJ, are probably confident that Leno has neither the interest nor background to see through this hit piece, let alone rebut it himself.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JRP3
some taxpayers qualify for some or all of the $7.5K EV tax credit, and undoubtably this increases to some extent the total number of Tesla's sold.

most taxpayers qualify for the mortgage interest deduction, and undoubtably, this increases the number of homes built, sold by realtors, and financed by banks.

where are all the WSJ (LA Times, etc.) articles from the last several decades blasting the homebuilders, realtors, and banks being aided by the mortgage interest deduction? I would not be shocked if the WSJ at some point voiced decent on the mortgage interest deduction, but has there been even one article in all these decades deriding homebuilders, realtors and banks over this?

it just doesn't make sense for the WSJ to be on the offensive with this indefensible mud slinging.

Of course the homebuilders, realtors and banks all advertise in those media outlets. Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise. So by picking on Tesla, they are serving the interests of their auto and oil industry sponsors. I wouldn't be surprised if the Koch brothers are offering to pay for some of that advertising, and expect anti-electric car articles in return.

As you imply, if a paper wants to editorialize against government policy, one particular benefitting company and its CEO should not be singled out without mention of the others. It used to be when a responsible editorial staff wrote an opinion piece, facts were checked and counterarguments were mentioned. No more. Not on the internet, and certainly not by any of the rag publications now owned by Rupert Murdoch such as the previously respected Wall Street Journal.
 
Since it's the weekend... not sure i have seen it posted (at least not in this thread), here is a French video and quick test drive of the Model X, showing a bunch of these at a press event close to Munich airport. Has good English subs as well, not the crappy autotranslate ones.

This confirms X deliveries starting in Europe and we have already seen confirmation on China and early 75s in the US. Also, the X June deliveries thread shows plenty of posts with <10 days of production, one of them was like 7-8 work days - a big drop.

Q2 should be a nice little beat.

 
Interesting data point from X June delivery thread (bolding by me):

Picked up 65xx yesterday at the factory. I'm in love. The factory tour was incredible. Got sunshade and a goody bag with a Tesla umbrella, mug, and pen. They had about 10 other deliveries at the same time. They are doing about 50 deliveries a day right now, and expect to do about 160 per DAY at the factory alone in the coming weeks before the end of the month (quarter). We had a Model S 60 for 3 years, and we already love the additional range the 90 gives us. Our trip home included one supercharger stop instead of 2.
 
Interesting data point from X June delivery thread (bolding by me):

Great stuff! 160 deliveries per day in one location! That's nuts when you think about it. I wonder what the experience would be like? Maybe like one of those mass weddings or something? ;)

I'm thinking a slight beat for Q2 as opposed to guidance but the big potential catalyst now is Tesla changing their guidance for 2016H2 and revising the end-of-year run rate target. I'm optimistic.
 
  • Like
  • Helpful
Reactions: Drax7 and EinSV
Great stuff! 160 deliveries per day in one location! That's nuts when you think about it. I wonder what the experience would be like? Maybe like one of those mass weddings or something? ;)

I'm thinking a slight beat for Q2 as opposed to guidance but the big potential catalyst now is Tesla changing their guidance for 2016H2 and revising the end-of-year run rate target. I'm optimistic.
Any word on more Service Centers, especially in California? They are going to need to build out support for all these deliveries.
 
June 15
Meanwhile, my Bay Area 90D, ordered in April, has not yet entered production.
Same here. I was told by DS that realistically delivery would be early July as they are still having variations in production and are not able to accurately predict.
Well, here's something you don't see often on the Model X forums. A delivery specialist called to say my east coast 90D is ahead of schedule. I ordered in May and was told to expect a July delivery back then. That's now been bumped up to June.

The car recently made it to the Connecticut transfer facility and is going into quality control this week. I've heard of a few 50 to 60 day turnarounds in California. I find it a bit shocking for a east coast delivery. So many people have waited so long. Bizarre but awesome. I hadn't even contacted the delivery specialist yet as I assumed it would be another month before a realistic delivery.
 
Last edited:
I believe that the concerns about the reduction in profits due to selling 75 kWh packs as locked 60 kWh packs is backwards.

I believe what that means is that Tesla has reduced their pack costs to the point where they are making their normal margins on the locked 60 kWh systems they sell, and that the additional money the receive for unlocking the symptoms is an additional profit.
 
That sounds good, but it's total speculation.
I stated as an opinion, which I believe makes more sense than the concerns that Tesla is making a poor financial decision, or the worries about revenue.

It isn't speculation that the cells have higher energy density, which means fewer cells are required per kWh which reduces their costs.

It's not more speculative than the hand wringing that their margins would suffer due to that decision.
 
  • Like
Reactions: austinEV and N5329K
Status
Not open for further replies.