Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

I know, right? Haters be like: 'Unicorns don't exist, dummy!' I be like: 'But just wait, maybe tomorrow...'

Even though I'm replying to myself, I will attempt to be serious for a moment. The question is: How do others catch up to Tesla?

Only answer I can come up with:

Tesla stands still. They stop innovating. Stop pushing the limits. Stop trying new things. Elon stops having epiphanies, stops pushing his crew. Odds of that happening; less than zero. Just look what they're doing with Stage 1 after just a few successful landings - hovering it! (Did not see that coming, especially so soon)

 

[schonelucht]

Is anyone closely tracking S production/deliveries? S had a faclift mid way through the quarter. Not sure if that meant any disruption in terms of production or deliveries.

Not that I am tracking them closely but you can find reports in the European delivery threads about cars ordered March-April which got their original estimated delivery date pushed back by weeks. It's hard to say if this is due to the refresh but I can't really see any other reason. I think a small ramp down/ramp up when they switched over to the new model somewhere in April is not an unreasonable expectations. And since this was when they were mainly focusing on overseas production it makes sense to attribute the delays as such.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Even though I'm replying to myself, I will attempt to be serious for a moment. The question is: How do others catch up to Tesla?

Only answer I can come up with:

Tesla stands still. They stop innovating. Stop pushing the limits. Stop trying new things. Elon stops having epiphanies, stops pushing his crew. Odds of that happening; less than zero. Just look what they're doing with Stage 1 after just a few successful landings - hovering it! (Did not see that coming, especially so soon)

What I find hugely entertaining about arguments of how big automotive companies are GOING to catch up to Tesla is how confident the people building these smart constructs are, as if Tesla being far ahead and moving faster than anybody else is a hypothetical, while the big auto catching up is given, when, in fact, it is the opposite!

Big auto catching up IS HYPOTHETICAL, while Tesla being ahead and moving faster than anybody else IS A FACT.

 

[madodel]

Even though I'm replying to myself, I will attempt to be serious for a moment. The question is: How do others catch up to Tesla?

Only answer I can come up with:

Tesla stands still. They stop innovating. Stop pushing the limits. Stop trying new things. Elon stops having epiphanies, stops pushing his crew. Odds of that happening; less than zero. Just look what they're doing with Stage 1 after just a few successful landings - hovering it! (Did not see that coming, especially so soon)

What happens is the shills and trolls will give up on Tesla being a "Ponzi" scheme of "failed" products that can never work and instead begin endless posts about how EM is sick, dying, or just bored with EVs, so therefore Tesla will no longer possess the ability to innovate and will wither and die while GM, Ford, BMW, VW, Toyota et al are the real deal since they have been willing to go to any length to innovate their marketing.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Chris Sacca just tweeted he needed to find some clothes for a Nascar kids party and all he has in his closet is Tesla nerd gear........

 

[yesla]

Big auto catching up IS HYPOTHETICAL, while Tesla being ahead and moving faster than anybody else IS A FACT.

Unless Elon develops some sort of ego that turns all the smart people on his team off and leaving to big autos to lead new teams on new products.

I can see it happening. Never say never. He is only human

 

[vgrinshpun]

Unless Elon develops some sort of ego that turns all the smart people on his team off and leaving to big autos to lead new teams on new products.

I can see it happening. Never say never. He is only human

Ha, well done - mixing hypotheticals with facts is so delicious!

 

[2virgule5]

This article does a good job summarizing probably the past 200 pages... Those joining the forum now will have a good starting point!
The Catalyst For Tesla Is Production

 

[Intl Professor]

Musk is human. He may well decide to let go of Tesla management once gigafactory is humming and M3 dominates market as did Model S. Then turn to whatever, space tourism, or hyperloop competition with "normal" train travel. The guy likes challenges. Plus his kids may be teenagers by then and need a father even more. We should all wish the best for him to have a "normal" life sometime before the pace, his talent, his vision, damages his health. He's even partially admitted some of his habits are taxing.

 

[colettimj]

Even though I'm replying to myself, I will attempt to be serious for a moment. The question is: How do others catch up to Tesla?

Only answer I can come up with:

Tesla stands still. They stop innovating. Stop pushing the limits. Stop trying new things. Elon stops having epiphanies, stops pushing his crew. Odds of that happening; less than zero. Just look what they're doing with Stage 1 after just a few successful landings - hovering it! (Did not see that coming, especially so soon)

This reminds me of something that was covered in the book Inside Intel. After Intel dropped their memory business to focus on processors, Andy Grove realized that Intel was in a unique position. No other company was at their level of innovation and their only competitor was themselves. This meant that they would continue to create better products that essentially obsoleted their prior creations; they would not wait to react to competition.

For Tesla, this will mean bigger batteries/better range, AP 2.0, more vehicle lines, supercharger expansion, destination charger expansion, and more. And the other car companies will always be trying to catch up.

 

[cluster]

about 16/Q2 delivery number.

Observing the delivery threads, there are reports about model S production completed within 2 days and model X production completed within 10 days.

Below is a comparison of several sources for Model S numbers. Any insights?

official delivery number, entries in google sheet, pages of model S delivery report thread in the same Q
1Q 2014 6,457
2Q 2014 7,579
3Q 2014 7,785
4Q 2014 9,834 --------------------------- 179 --------------------------------------------- 10
1Q 2015 10,045 --------------------------- 98 --------------------------------------------- 5
2Q 2015 11,532 --------------------------- 252 --------------------------------------------- 16
3Q 2015 11,597 --------------------------- 217 --------------------------------------------- 20
4Q 2015 17,272 --------------------------- 281 --------------------------------------------- 41
1Q 2016 12,420 --------------------------- 191 --------------------------------------------- 26
2Q 2016 ??? --------------------------- 178 --------------------------------------------- 125

 

[geneclean55]

about 16/Q2 delivery number.

Observing the delivery threads, there are reports about model S production completed within 2 days and model X production completed within 10 days.

Below is a comparison of several sources for Model S numbers. Any insights?

official delivery number, entries in google sheet, pages of model S delivery report thread in the same Q
1Q 2014 6,457
2Q 2014 7,579
3Q 2014 7,785
4Q 2014 9,834 --------------------------- 179 --------------------------------------------- 10
1Q 2015 10,045 --------------------------- 98 --------------------------------------------- 5
2Q 2015 11,532 --------------------------- 252 --------------------------------------------- 16
3Q 2015 11,597 --------------------------- 217 --------------------------------------------- 20
4Q 2015 17,272 --------------------------- 281 --------------------------------------------- 41
1Q 2016 12,420 --------------------------- 191 --------------------------------------------- 26
2Q 2016 ??? --------------------------- 178 --------------------------------------------- 125

Considering the problems with model X production in 1Q2016 that probably slowed down general production at Fremont, i would be shocked if Tesla can't at the very least match model s delivery numbers from that quarter this time around.

 

[30seconds]

I still think that most analysts don't understand the leap Tesla made when they white sheeted the design for the S. Large automakers design so that the vehicles can be assembled from components made from across a wide supply chain, taking advantage of cost savings when these components are shared across manufactures (transmissions, seats, entertainment systems, etc.). System integration is of course needed, but at some level it is designed at a minimum level. Looking at the S it is clear that all/ vast majority of subcomponents were designed for full integration from the start. This means that the "main computer" of the S has a very different ability to control the car's function as well as a very different data stream it has access to.

Kind of a long way of saying that Tesla is working from a very different platform to innovate on. I think they have a huge advantage in terms of cycle time and pure data/control options. The most obvious is the jump in Autopilot vs. competition. We are seeing the state of the art systems being deployed from Volvo and MB, but they are far behind Autopilot 1.0 and I don't think anyone here would be surprised if Autopilot 2.0 rolls out in the next 9 months or so.

Plus Elon's vision is entirely different from the rest of the industry. He is seeking maximum efficiency from a global transportation basis, not at the individual car level. We are seeing the rest of the industry invest in ride-sharing /Uber type services (which is good IMHO), but as we have discussed Tesla is probably going to be first to build it directly into their own cars.

tl;dr - i'm really not worried about Tesla's pace of innovation

 

[geneclean55]

Panasonic on the verge of hiring personnel to work at Gigafactory

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA): Panasonic To Hold Hiring Event For The Gigafactory

 

[MitchJi]

This article does a good job summarizing probably the past 200 pages... Those joining the forum now will have a good starting point!
The Catalyst For Tesla Is Production

No! Beyond the headline it's mostly wrong.

 

[Papafox]

Here's an interesting story about a ton of TSLA options being sold on Thursday, the equivalent of 6.3M shares worth. Of particular interest were June 17 215 strike put options.
Notable Thursday Option Activity: TSLA, XON, TROX
Hmmm. No wonder we've seen a tug-of-war with the stock price today.

 

[JRP3]

Musk is human.

Available evidence suggests otherwise Evidence That Elon Musk Is An Alien

 

[sunhelm]

Here's an interesting story about a ton of TSLA options being sold on Thursday, the equivalent of 6.3M shares worth. Of particular interest were June 17 215 strike put options.
Notable Thursday Option Activity: TSLA, XON, TROX
Hmmm. No wonder we've seen a tug-of-war with the stock price today.

Might see a good chance it'll be dragged down to that level with volumes unusually thin today.

 

[geneclean55]

Putting my estimate together for the upcoming q2-2016 delivery thread estimate competition.
Quick question.... are vin numbers for signature, founder, and production model x independent or collated? For example, can you have a signature vin # 301, and a production vin # 301?

 

[Papafox]

Might see a good chance it'll be dragged down to that level with volumes unusually thin today.

Yep. People wouldn't be buying 215 Jun 17, 2016, puts on Jun 16 unless they had a good reason to believe there'd be a drop. Again, this is why I normally stay away from short-term trading of TSLA. Fortunately, every week we draw closer to the early July release of delivery numbers.