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Should I sell on (potentially) good news now? TSLA has been playing "sell on news" trick roughly two years.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) In the past insideevs has said they talk to Tesla employees at the store level as well as corporate. Although their level of inside info does not translate to a specific number they believe it gives them a general direction and velocity. Up a lot ,down a little etc.
2) Insideevs gives is monthly estimates while Tesla gives us quarterly deliveries. We have insideevs estimates in the first and second month of the quarter while Tesla is silent.
People that don't think insideevs adds value are free to ignore.
jesselivenomore
Member
These delivery numbers are actually super significant.(even more than usual)
Fundamentally, it represents the first quarter of Model X ramp up. This is synonymous with the Model S in Q1 2013. Check the stock price for how that turned out.
Technically, as mentioned above, it could be the catalyst of a breakout since we are so close to major levels. The stock has been mired in negative headlines for a few weeks now. There is a crisis of confidence as Wall st does not believe what Tesla says it will do. This started from disbelief over pulling in the 500k goal to 2018, and has seeped into questions over the motives behind the SCTY deal. People are doubting Tesla's words. This directly impacts share price as so much of the valuation is based on what people think/what Tesla says it will do in the future. There is only one cure for this: execution, and that is what delivery numbers represent.
In fact, this is the first among several potential upcoming catalysts that could potentially sustain a rally should the deliveries be positive and set a bullish tone:
Gigafactory grand opening
Q2 ER - if deliveries are positive, so will ER
and most imminently, making pubic the SCTY acquisition due diligence
The first two are obvious. With the SCTY deal, the market has taken into account the significant negativity around questions of motive(bailout?), corporate governance, increased debt etc. There is widespread view that the deal is negative for Tesla shareholders, and that is already priced into the stock.
When Tesla imminently release details of their due diligence, hard numbers on synergies for example, this represents a chance for them to tell their side of the story for the first time(besides the hastily put together blog post and conference call). Since the market has already largely discounted why this deal does not make sense, anything that would suggest otherwise and make sense of the deal would be positive for the stock. This is a unique situation, as these details usually come out alongside the initial announcement, but since Elon was obligated to make the deal public knowledge immediately, the market had a chance to react before getting all the info.
What is most important is still these delivery numbers though, as they are most material to the business. A positive number would turn the tide of doubt surrounding the company and generate confidence in the business, which would make the eventual due diligence around SCTY more believable, and extend to the Gigafactory opening which will undoubtedly revolve around more talk of the future. A change in sentiment that can be sustained over the next few months from all thats coming up. While a negative number would only feed into and reinforce the negative narrative that recently has been so prevalent.
Fundamentally, it represents the first quarter of Model X ramp up. This is synonymous with the Model S in Q1 2013. Check the stock price for how that turned out.
Technically, as mentioned above, it could be the catalyst of a breakout since we are so close to major levels. The stock has been mired in negative headlines for a few weeks now. There is a crisis of confidence as Wall st does not believe what Tesla says it will do. This started from disbelief over pulling in the 500k goal to 2018, and has seeped into questions over the motives behind the SCTY deal. People are doubting Tesla's words. This directly impacts share price as so much of the valuation is based on what people think/what Tesla says it will do in the future. There is only one cure for this: execution, and that is what delivery numbers represent.
In fact, this is the first among several potential upcoming catalysts that could potentially sustain a rally should the deliveries be positive and set a bullish tone:
Gigafactory grand opening
Q2 ER - if deliveries are positive, so will ER
and most imminently, making pubic the SCTY acquisition due diligence
The first two are obvious. With the SCTY deal, the market has taken into account the significant negativity around questions of motive(bailout?), corporate governance, increased debt etc. There is widespread view that the deal is negative for Tesla shareholders, and that is already priced into the stock.
When Tesla imminently release details of their due diligence, hard numbers on synergies for example, this represents a chance for them to tell their side of the story for the first time(besides the hastily put together blog post and conference call). Since the market has already largely discounted why this deal does not make sense, anything that would suggest otherwise and make sense of the deal would be positive for the stock. This is a unique situation, as these details usually come out alongside the initial announcement, but since Elon was obligated to make the deal public knowledge immediately, the market had a chance to react before getting all the info.
What is most important is still these delivery numbers though, as they are most material to the business. A positive number would turn the tide of doubt surrounding the company and generate confidence in the business, which would make the eventual due diligence around SCTY more believable, and extend to the Gigafactory opening which will undoubtedly revolve around more talk of the future. A change in sentiment that can be sustained over the next few months from all thats coming up. While a negative number would only feed into and reinforce the negative narrative that recently has been so prevalent.
While I seldom do short-term trades, I just bought a few July15 240 calls for 60 cents apiece. I figure it is gambling with money I can afford to lose. If delivery numbers are good, they'll be up on Tuesday. If not, it was just gambling money, oh well.
Wow, so TSLA did smash through the SMA(20), and essentially bounced of the SMA(200) / top of the SolarCity city GAP.
If there is a nice Q2 beat, the fireworks are guaranteed...
Damn it! Price really dropped. Fine, as long as it doesn't go below $215
1, Fully agree with you on the significance of this quarter and I truly hope Elon understands it as well and they ace the numbers.
2, What will really make a big difference for both TE and the TE + SCTY marriage, will be the future ("when" not "if") announcement of one or a couple of big utility orders for a combo like the Hawaii project. When the first major power company announces that instead of building a peak demand gas power plant for X zillion dollars, they went with a Tesla PV + battery combination for a fraction of the cost, Mr. Market will realize the potential of this business line.
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I agree it's all about execution and showing numbers now. In my view, it has been that way for a while now. Maybe all the way from more than an year ago where people were clamoring to see X mules. While results were still lacking, Musk has been giving out ever more ambitious and aggressive stuff to chew on. Market has simply become numb to all of the "talk". I think one or two quarters of solid number will fix the sentiment for good and would start to price in the new stuff.
Beating the guidance is particularly important. That way when Q3 guidance comes out at Q2 ER there will be credibility to it. or else we will have another 3 months of this prolonged waiting.
Well, there was a plot twist there toward the end but we still managed to pull off a perfect week. Up $23 from last Friday's close, with shorts completely out of ammo and Q2 delivery numbers imminent headed into a holiday weekend. If next week's performance matches this week's then I will be one happy shareholder!
I hope everybody has a happy and safe 4th of July! I have a feeling the fireworks will be especially pretty this year.
Has anyone been doing any digging into China partnership deals for a battery factory or cars? Seems highly likely that they're going to want to do one and I think I heard they would announce a deal by mid2016, but that's probably +- a year by Tesla time.
Joined you on this one, papafox. Not sure why, seems optimistic. Will probably sell on Tuesday if the news is only neutral, but keep it if we go up more than 5-10 points.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Good question. I've been away from this thread since it had a lot of junk posts about a few weeks in span and decided to come back to see valuable posts, but missing Julian in action. A search on EV-Volumes resulted in: last post was about 5 weeks ago and the profile is missing. Clicking on the user name itself loads up to a page where underneath the user name: Banned.
mmd
Active Member
The Latest: Friends remember man dead in driverless crash
Edit: In video link posted by @doggusfluffy, seems the car was driving faster than 85 mph in the right lane.
Edit: In video link posted by @doggusfluffy, seems the car was driving faster than 85 mph in the right lane.
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I don't know if others feel the same way but to me, the text you highlighted on this article veers dangerously close to besmirching the reputation of a decent man who just died in a tragic accident in order to tacitly assign fault. I don't think it's in good taste.
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