Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Irishjugg]

No, it's a lobby group against the major brands. They have been very active against Ford in the past, and GM and Toyota more recently.

Ah, nice to know, thanks.

 

[madodel]

If they get behind this then Solar will be even more important over the next 10 years. U.S., Mexico, Canada Pledge 50 Percent Clean Power by 2025 I just don't see how the SCTY acquisition doesn't happen.

 

[esk8mw]

Question for all you mfg experts out there (or just people with knowledge of the Fremont factory!):

To what extent does 1 X production come "at the expense of" 1 S production?

I haven't been to the factory so forgive me if this is overly basic. 2 extremes here: 1. every time an X is produced, an S is forgone and therefore S production suffers proportionally to the extent X production increases. 2. The opposite - X production is totally independent of S - every time an additional X is made is it simply additive to overall production numbers because S is totally separate.

I think I've read that there are separate lines dedicated to S and X so I'm leaning towards 2, but I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in the middle, right? Looking at Q1, I can see that S production dropped from 13,530 (15Q4) to 12,851 as X started ramping up a bit. I can only speculate that (if lines are indeed separate) S suffered because X issues diverted manpower from regular S production to address model X issues.

Put a simpler way - to what extent, if any, will S numbers be affected in Q2 now that X production increased 3-4x over Q1? Is it possible that only 11,xxx S were able to be produced in Q2 because more resources were devoted to X? I'm guessing no due to all the noise about overall production improvements (2k/week or better already chatter, recent 1500/week S capacity chatter, etc.).

I realize it's too late to trade the deliveries number as we will all have it soon enough, but this has been a curiosity of mine as I've tried to model/predict Q2 performance. All my estimates are coming in waaay over guidance so I'm trying to address potential root causes.

 

[FredTMC]

Question for all you mfg experts out there (or just people with knowledge of the Fremont factory!):

To what extent does 1 X production come "at the expense of" 1 S production?

I haven't been to the factory so forgive me if this is overly basic. 2 extremes here: 1. every time an X is produced, an S is forgone and therefore S production suffers proportionally to the extent X production increases. 2. The opposite - X production is totally independent of S - every time an additional X is made is it simply additive to overall production numbers because S is totally separate.

I think I've read that there are separate lines dedicated to S and X so I'm leaning towards 2, but I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in the middle, right? Looking at Q1, I can see that S production dropped from 13,530 (15Q4) to 12,851 as X started ramping up a bit. I can only speculate that (if lines are indeed separate) S suffered because X issues diverted manpower from regular S production to address model X issues.

Put a simpler way - to what extent, if any, will S numbers be affected in Q2 now that X production increased 3-4x over Q1? Is it possible that only 11,xxx S were able to be produced in Q2 because more resources were devoted to X? I'm guessing no due to all the noise about overall production improvements (2k/week or better already chatter, recent 1500/week S capacity chatter, etc.).

I realize it's too late to trade the deliveries number as we will all have it soon enough, but this has been a curiosity of mine as I've tried to model/predict Q2 performance. All my estimates are coming in waaay over guidance so I'm trying to address potential root causes.

Here's what I know.

The car bodies (body in white) are currently built on two separate robotic weld lines. The NEW weld line builds MX bodies and the old line builds MS. So, these lines work independently of each other.

After the bodies in white go thru the paint shop, then the cars go into "final assembly". Final assembly is a conveyor-based human assembly line. So, both cars share this final assembly line. My understanding is this final assembly line maxes out at over 2000 cars/week. They run TWO 8 hour shifts M-F and sometimes a shift on Saturday. My understanding is they may be able to increase production to 2500/week but that's about it without more capital investment.

Hope this helps

 

[Drumheller]

Thank you, Fred! Any idea why they aren't running 3 shifts? Seems like keeping things going 24/7 would help ramp numbers.

 

[SBenson]

Here's what I know.

The car bodies (body in white) are currently built on two separate robotic weld lines. The NEW weld line builds MX bodies and the old line builds MS. So, these lines work independently of each other.

After the bodies in white go thru the paint shop, then the cars go into "final assembly". Final assembly is a conveyor-based human assembly line. So, both cars share this final assembly line. My understanding is this final assembly line maxes out at over 2000 cars/week. They run TWO 8 hour shifts M-F and sometimes a shift on Saturday. My understanding is they may be able to increase production to 2500/week but that's about it without more capital investment.

Hope this helps

Thanks for the info. When did you learn this info? Wondering if additional capacity planning/implementation is underway.

 

[FredTMC]

Thank you, Fred! Any idea why they aren't running 3 shifts? Seems like keeping things going 24/7 would help ramp numbers.

This has been discussed before. I seem to recall that it's not cost effective to run a graveyard shift (labor rates) and it's possible that the line needs some down-time for maintenance and tooling recalibrations

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks for the info. When did you learn this info? Wondering if additional capacity planning/implementation is underway.

I've toured the factory a number of times over the last few years. Usually around the TMC connect summer meeting

 

[SBenson]

I've toured the factory a number of times over the last few years. Usually around the TMC connect summer meeting

Thanks again. My question was really when you learnt the specific capacity numbers like 2K/week and 2.5K/week. If this was say an year ago, there is a chance that (max) capacity could be higher now... So maybe relavant question is, when was your last tour?

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks again. My question was really when you learnt the specific capacity numbers like 2K/week and 2.5K/week. If this was say an year ago, there is a chance that (max) capacity could be higher now... So maybe relavant question is, when was your last tour?

I haven't been there yet this year. Capacity numbers weren't learned there. Learned from this forum. The 2k / week number was deduced a long time ago when tesla said they'd exit this year at 100k / year annualized rate

 

[Drumheller]

This has been discussed before. I seem to recall that it's not cost effective to run a graveyard shift (labor rates) and it's possible that the line needs some down-time for maintenance and tooling recalibrations

Thank you!

 

[MitchJi]

I haven't been there yet this year. Capacity numbers weren't learned there. Learned from this forum. The 2k / week number was deduced a long time ago when tesla said they'd exit this year at 100k / year annualized rate

Elon said that the M3 production line would be about Alien Deadnaught V0.5. I bet at some point between now and the January of 2017 they will implement some of those improvements into the existing MS-MX production lines.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend OT
Japan moves quickly into mirrorless cars

Japan approves mirrorless cars starting later this month.

Could Tesla make the Japanese version of Model S and Model X mirrorless then present the data to NHSTA for US approval?

 

[dennis]

Thank you, Fred! Any idea why they aren't running 3 shifts? Seems like keeping things going 24/7 would help ramp numbers.

I was once told that they use the third shift for maintenance and upgrade of the manufacturing equipment.

 

[MitchJi]

Q2 or Q3?!:
Elon Musk of Tesla Motors to respond to three queries | Markets Morning

During the Tesla Energy launch event, Musk said it will begin sales of its Powerwall and Powerpacks this year, but he warned that the ramp-up in production will be slow. Next year — this time i.e. 2016 — however, Musk said the ramp-up will be much, much higher.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Q2 or Q3?!:
Elon Musk of Tesla Motors to respond to three queries | Markets Morning

Kind of a strange article. Grammar is off. 2000 referral credit last month? Model X launch around the corner?

Maybe a computer rehashed article? Hopefully a BA from Duke writes better than this.

 

[Topher]

they just have to be safer than humans which is INCREDIBLY easy to do.

We don't have any evidence that it is safer than humans. Nor does it have to be. Driving safer than humans is actually incredibly hard.

The question (at the moment) is, is the car safer with BOTH a human driver and auto-pilot? That seems very likely IF humans are using it as a supplemental system. And not, IF humans are using it as a replacement driver.

Thank you kindly.

 

[MitchJi]

Kind of a strange article. Grammar is off. 2000 referral credit last month? Model X launch around the corner? Maybe a computer rehashed article? Hopefully a BA from Duke writes better than this.

It looks like this is the original source dated August 2015:
3 Questions for Tesla Motors, Inc. CEO Elon Musk -- The Motley Fool
But the quote I used was correct (they did add the "i.e. 2016" for clarity):

During the Tesla Energy launch event, Musk said it will begin sales of its Powerwall and Powerpacks this year, but he warned that the ramp-up in production will be slow. Next year, however, Musk said the ramp-up will be "much, much higher."

One more indication that the TE ramp is imminent.

And also an indication that it might be a good time for some of our friends to close their short positions (e.g. perfect-illogic and fairy-tales-from-the-future).

 

[RobStark]

We don't have any evidence that it is safer than humans.

Yes we do.

One fatality in 130M AP miles vs one fatality in 60M miles for humans.

It is not conclusive evidence but it is some evidence.

 

[Runarbt]

It looks like this is the original source dated August 2015:
3 Questions for Tesla Motors, Inc. CEO Elon Musk -- The Motley Fool
But the quote I used was correct (they did add the "i.e. 2016" for clarity):

One more indication that the TE ramp is imminent.

And also an indication that it might be a good time for some of our friends to close their short positions (e.g. perfect-illogic and fairy-tales-from-the-future).

This also fit with Elon saying the bid on SCTY is a no-brainer.