Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JeffreyY]

TSLA would do well to be a little more conservative in their guidance. Better to under promise and over deliver.

That having been said, seems like they have achieved the nearly 2000 cars / week level and the next 2 quarters represent a 10% increase each quarter which is probably not unrealistic.

 

[McMuggets]

I've never really cared about their guidance, fully knowing that Musk even says he sets goals that are just beyond the range of doable. This motivates his team to strive to hit them. Tesla is always on the low-end of guidance lately, and when I see 80-90K, I think 75-80K.

 

[JeffreyY]

To be fair, adding the 5,150 cars enroute to customers produced in Q2 puts it at 19,000 deliveries, which means the forum voters were pretty much right!

That's the way I see it. As a long term investor, the trend is in the right direction. Overall, sounds like the production ramp was off by about 2 weeks. Had the ramp occurred slightly earlier, more of those cars would have made it to market, but the good news is they made it out of the factory.

 

[anon]

I don't know what to make of this. It's a big miss on the headline numbers, but Elon was talking about 2000/week as being a peak number even just a couple of months ago, with many weeks expected to be less than that, so it's a big change for that to be a consistent number with much higher numbers promised in the rest of the year.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So will Wall St punish the stock this coming wk?

Seeing as these Q2 numbers are a face plant (or face palm), I expect TSLA to take a hit next week.

On the other hand, TSLA actually went up the day after the public announcement of a person being killed while driving on Autopilot, so who knows what will happen

Knowing this was a miss, someone please explain SCTY offer? I can't

The simple answer is that Elon thinks years and decades ahead, and that a big miss this quarter is either minor or irrelevant to long term plans.

 

[geneclean55]

I've never really cared about their guidance, fully knowing that Musk even says he sets goals that are just beyond the range of doable. This motivates his team to strive to hit them. Tesla is always on the low-end of guidance lately, and when I see 80-90K, I think 75-80K.

Sure, but I don't think the market appreciates that.
I remember, before q1-2016 financials came out, many people on here thought that 70-80k guidance for the year would be realistic, and very good.

 

[JeffreyY]

I've never really cared about their guidance, fully knowing that Musk even says he sets goals that are just beyond the range of doable. This motivates his team to strive to hit them. Tesla is always on the low-end of guidance lately, and when I see 80-90K, I think 75-80K.

That's true actually. I had forgotten that he says that. I'm also a big Apple investor and they are very good at guidance. On the other hand, they have a lot more history and their production mechanism is established.

 

[FredTMC]

To be fair, adding the 5,150 cars enroute to customers produced in Q2 puts it at 19,000 deliveries, which means the forum voters were pretty much right!

TSLA is going to need MORE than one analyst to explain and defend this point

 

[AlMc]

This can't be considered a 'positive' delivery number. It feeds into the 'lots of sizzle, less steak' scenario of EM/TM continuing to miss guidance.

I know, long term TM/TSLA will be a good investment but as this is the ST thread....these results are not good.

Question: can TM go from 15k deliveries in Q2 2016 to 150k deliveries in Q4 2017?

 

[BornToFly]

The biggest problem with having over 5,000 cars in transit, is that they haven't been paid for yet. Q2 ER is going to have poor cash flow numbers, which will make for horrible bear headlines, and the SP is going to take a hit.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Twitter is abuzz already. I don't have a problem with the explanation. No reason for me to sell. Remember how Brexit turned out? Enjoy your holiday!

 

[BornToFly]

The real headlines should be that Tesla produced over 18,000 vehicles, that they expect to hit guidance for the year, and demand continues to increase and support higher delivery numbers. Instead the headlines will be poor delivery numbers, poor cash flow, demand must be down, TM is going to go bankrupt, losing more money per car., etc.

The only good thing is that the market doesn't open for two days, and hopefully the positive aspects will have had time to sink in so the SP doesn't fall too much on Tuesday.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm not sure how the market will react but I see two small wins, one win and one loss:

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 18,345 vehicles in Q2, [small win] an increase of 20% from Q1, and exited the quarter consistently producing just under 2,000 vehicles per week. [small win] Due to the steep production ramp, almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks.

Tesla Q2 deliveries were lower than anticipated at 14,370 vehicles, consisting of 9,745 Model S and 4,625 Model X [4.6k MX a loss].

In total, 5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter and will be delivered in early Q3. [5k in transit a win]

The market might not be able to figure this out, but Tesla's problem has been producing cars, not delivering cars .

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Only real reasons I can think of that will prevent the stock from taking a huge hit:
-Shares shorted are already crazy high, there aren't enough shares available for shorting to knock the stock down much
-Strong Longs want to hold on until AT LEAST the Gigafactory opening
-WS is used to Elon missing expectations, what's different about this time that would make them sell now?

Tesla is making good progress in the right direction but probably not as fast as WS wants it to.

 

[BornToFly]

Yep. Bloomberg write about the miss, doesn't even mention the 5,000+ cars in transit for delivery. What a surprise....

 

[geneclean55]

'Exited the quarter consistently producing just under 2000 cars per week'.

Ha, what does that actually MEAN? Can be interpreted several ways.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Yep. Bloomberg write about the miss, doesn't even mention the 5,000+ cars in transit for delivery. What a surprise....

There will be cars in transit every quarter. You can probably add some of those to the number (difference between last quarter in transit and this quarter in transit) but chances are they will have a ton in transit next quarter, too.

 

[mmd]

Tesla Q2 #'s here....

Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

That's low. Even a pessimist like me thought it will be over 17K. My short term calls will go waste

 

[VanE]

To be fair, adding the 5,150 cars enroute to customers produced in Q2 puts it at 19,000 deliveries, which means the forum voters were pretty much right!

No, that is not the case. TM said that they were going to produce 20k cars, they made 18k and they said that were going to deliver 17k cars and they delivered 14k. Yes, with the in-transit cars they hit their goal, but that's unfortunately not how it works, nor how the market will see it.

 

[BornToFly]

There will be cars in transit every quarter. You can probably add some of those to the number (difference between last quarter in transit and this quarter in transit) but chances are they will have a ton in transit next quarter, too.

Yes, but the number in transit this quarter are about double what they have been in the past.