Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

We shouldn't be surprised to see $220 today, which is what TSLA was at before Brexit, before SCTY and everything else.

The faked "Autopilot crash" media reports are dying down, amazing jobs report which will lift all boats, and rising anticipation for the Gigafactory reveal party.

 

[JRP3]

Admittedly you guys that bought at the IPO did great but plenty of opportunities to profit short over the last 18 months, so it's a good stock for everyone

Volatile stocks provide opportunities on both sides, but that has nothing to do with your assessment of the company and your claim that the price is out of line.

 

[sdtslafan]

I've been discussing the past weeks events with several TSLA shareholders. It seems that the fact that the stock has gained in spite of missing short term guidance has emboldened many of us to cling to our TSLA shares despite any future mishaps that may arise. This conviction will undoubtedly result in stability and upward pressure on the share price over time. Realizing this strength, it would seemingly be wise for shorts to buy back now while the stock price is VERY LOW (April 2014 levels).

There is a lot of talk about Jim Chanos. His skepticism served him well in shorting Enron over a decade ago. Unfortunately, with respect to TSLA, he will likely end up being on the wrong side of history and the move toward a sustainable future. Those who are short-sighted lose the most in large paradigm shifts. It would be a shame he is known more for his failure in understanding Tesla than his success with Enron. Same for Left and Valeant.

 

[schonelucht]

Panasonic expects to double sales of electric car batteries in three years

$1.8B revenue over the last year. $180/kWh gives 10GWh total sales. Besides Tesla which has used maybe 5 GWh, what are other large automotive customers of Panasonic? Also interestingly, energy storage solutions growth is seen by Panasonic at $1B by 2019. Will be interesting to see how much Tesla is able to multiply that number.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

LOL, this is little weak dontcha think?

MW Tesla Motors stock price target cut to $210 from $220 at RBC Capital

Jul 08, 2016 08:07:00 (ET)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-08-16 0807ET

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

LOL, this is little weak dontcha think?

MW Tesla Motors stock price target cut to $210 from $220 at RBC Capital

Jul 08, 2016 08:07:00 (ET)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-08-16 0807ET

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Every ****ing time we hit resistance. This is getting old.

 

[SBenson]

I think that the real short term traders have backed off of TSLA for now, and the panic seller have already bailed on Musk. The SP was 215 in 2014. For all the talk in this thread daily about TSLA fundamentals, the reality is that the stock has traded in a narrow range for literally years.

Edit: I do realize that the stock will enter a new range with the model 3. Hopefully a higher range. Presumably this possible future is what supports the stock today, despite some recent strangely negative press.

I agree the stock has been stuck in a trading band for more than 2 years now. However here are a few things to consider:

- Even within the trading band from 180 to 280 (give or take), there is plenty of opportunity. Right now we are on the lower side of the band and have reasons to believe that we will drift upwards.

- We also have reasons to believe we are at the cusp of a mega rally that will move TSLA into a higher trading band. Several things are lined up:
-- GF party: it all depends on what comes out there. If Musk continues to talk in future tense, maybe not much effect on SP. But consider if Musk shows a real production line and says something like 'we have achieved $100/kWh today with this line right here' what will happen?
-- Q3 can be the beginning of a fundamental shift in fundamentals. Beginning of a sustainable positive non-gaap EPS, which may not turn negative ever again. Q2 ER can be an opportunity to throw that in.
-- If this short recall theory holds, we have some forced buying as well.

All in all this might be starting of a mega rally. Or may be not and this too will prove out to be a false start like many we had over last two years. It just so happens we have reasons to get optimistic at this point.

 

[esk8mw]

IB TSLA shorting rates continue to confuse me:

Up to 45% fee to short now, but 267k shares available to short! Shares available more than doubled but the fee rate went up 10%. Does not compute.

As for SCTY, the fee rate went up to 217%(!!) Only 3k shares available.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

$1.8B revenue over the last year. $180/kWh gives 10GWh total sales. Besides Tesla which has used maybe 5 GWh, what are other large automotive customers of Panasonic? Also interestingly, energy storage solutions growth is seen by Panasonic at $1B by 2019. Will be interesting to see how much Tesla is able to multiply that number.

Toyota used to be their #1 customer, but don't know if they still are (prius sales dropping). With the prius prime out, maybe they'll consume more of Panasonic's batteries.

 

[vgrinshpun]

IB TSLA shorting rates continue to confuse me:

Up to 45% fee to short now, but 267k shares available to short! Shares available more than doubled but the fee rate went up 10%. Does not compute.

As for SCTY, the fee rate went up to 217%(!!) Only 3k shares available.

Still 0 shares available at Fidelity, estimated annual interest up from 16% yesterday, to 18% todaY.

I think that the rate going up is now driven more by the seller's perception of what market can bear, rather than simple supply - demand equilibrium. Makes sense if seller thinks that the squeeze is coming and is trying to capitalize on potential desperation among short sellers...

 

[doctoxics]

$1.8B revenue over the last year. $180/kWh gives 10GWh total sales. Besides Tesla which has used maybe 5 GWh, what are other large automotive customers of Panasonic? Also interestingly, energy storage solutions growth is seen by Panasonic at $1B by 2019. Will be interesting to see how much Tesla is able to multiply that number.

Panasonic is selling their own energy storage product. The automotive division of Panasonic includes more than batteries.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Panasonic is selling their own energy storage product. The automotive division of Panasonic includes more than batteries.

But the article discussed growth in Panasonic automotive battery sales, not the automotive business as a whole.

 

[Curt Renz]

I would like to add another perspective on the short-selling / price action we are seeing these days: what if the "0 available shares for shorting" is less a function of institutional investors recalling their shares and more driven by shorts desperately trying to gain votes? (i.e. making them longs in a way).

But would shorts vote for a deal they see as negative, or against it to undermine Elon?

A short seller is not a shareholder (company owner) and cannot vote in corporate referendums.

A short seller borrows shares from a shareholder then immediately sells them to someone else in the open market. Eventually a short seller must buy back (cover) those borrowed shares then immediately return them to the original owner, which restores the short seller to a neutral position in the stock. These actions may appear complicated, but a brokerage's computer executes them in a split second.

 

[doctoxics]

But the article discussed growth in Panasonic automotive battery sales, not the automotive business as a whole.

Correct.

 

[nienco2]

That's both unfair and not productive. If reasonable shorts can't fully explain their thesis without trolling in any way without crap posts like this attacking them, then this thread has officially become useless. Disappointing post.

This I too be believe. I try to avoid silo thinking and that's why I read sites that span the spectrum bullish to bearish. I also watch Fox news even though it's about 180 degrees from my general viewpoints.

Regarding your question:
" How much of a concern is it that the stock price has been reasonably stable while a lot of those metrics have improved? (Obviously they are still negative)"

My biggest concern is not a fundamental one, but rather 1) how the heck this extraordinary percentage of shares sold short will play out and 2) with Goldman and Morgan Stanley so tightly bound to Tesla are there games they play to support the stock longer than I supposed? There certainly seems to be a floor currently.

Thanks for the civil reply by the way. Here's hoping we go to $300 after GF party and you cash out with a nice win and I double down for a win in 2018.

cheers

 

[FredTMC]

LOL, this is little weak dontcha think?

MW Tesla Motors stock price target cut to $210 from $220 at RBC Capital

Jul 08, 2016 08:07:00 (ET)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-08-16 0807ET

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Yeah, I've never understood these tiny PT cuts/raises with outlook "maintained". I mean really, what useful purpose does that serve?

So, let me get this straight... There's been TONS of new developments (pos & neg) since their last PT change, right? And on balance, the net effect to their model is 5% PT change.

So, what's the point to bothering the market with "nothing Important to see here" tiny PT change? To me that seems within the margin of error compared to their Bear case, neutral case and bull case.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think that the real short term traders have backed off of TSLA for now, and the panic seller have already bailed on Musk. The SP was 215 in 2014. For all the talk in this thread daily about TSLA fundamentals, the reality is that the stock has traded in a narrow range for literally years.

Which is to be expected, given the difficulty of Tesla's mission and the great uncertainty in the minds of many.

From late 2010 until mid-2013, TSLA traded in a narrow range of $30-$40/share.

From mid-2013 to mid-2014 TSLA jumped up to its current plateau. The success of Model S drove this rise in value. The company proved it could build a car in mass quantity, which was in doubt during the Roadster era.

From mid-2014 until now, mid-2016, TSLA has traded from a low of $150 to a high of $279. As of now, TSLA trades around $217, which is almost exactly the mid-point of the average of the low and high.

If Tesla can show that it is not just a successful mass manufacturer, but also self sustaining, I believe the stock will jump again.

When that will happen, I don't know. Someone else's analysis showed that the "self sustaining" point would be about 1800 cars/week delivery at ASP of 90k.

 

[Irishjugg]

This I too be believe. I try to avoid silo thinking and that's why I read sites that span the spectrum bullish to bearish. I also watch Fox news even though it's about 180 degrees from my general viewpoints.

Regarding your question:
" How much of a concern is it that the stock price has been reasonably stable while a lot of those metrics have improved? (Obviously they are still negative)"

My biggest concern is not a fundamental one, but rather 1) how the heck this extraordinary percentage of shares sold short will play out and 2) with Goldman and Morgan Stanley so tightly bound to Tesla are there games they play to support the stock longer than I supposed? There certainly seems to be a floor currently.

Thanks for the civil reply by the way. Here's hoping we go to $300 after GF party and you cash out with a nice win and I double down for a win in 2018.

cheers

I dont ever short persay, in fact I'm not allowed to because of my job, but I certainly take short term short views (basically, I swing trade so I sell out of a large portion of my trading shares with the goal of buying back later at a lower price, so sort of an un leveraged short). I'll be selling heavily above 300 when we get there because I expect a new range will form and I'll get a new discount. So basically, I hope so too!

I think it's very intelligent to short tesla on short time horizons occasionally.

Also, thanks for the answer, I do still want to know your opinion on the price stability with increasing technical metrics even if it's not your main concern though. I think your views on this could be very useful.

 

[phigment]

Today's action is a little discouraging. Not even keep up with the Nasdaq (up 1.3%), GM (up 3%), Ford (up 3%).

But I think the following may help exlain what we're seeing:

Mediocre volume, maximum pain @ 215, hitting a bunch of resistance points. Looks like some pretty steep smack downs at a few times in the day. My guess is that there are some more shares available for shorting today and they are being used to keep things below resistance.

 

[nienco2]

Also, thanks for the answer, I do still want to know your opinion on the price stability with increasing technical metrics even if it's not your main concern though. I think your views on this could be very useful.

Hope it's okay to admitting I have no clue on that.