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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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You guys are thinking way to hard on this. Save the tin foil hats. The negative articles are solely based on News. There have been unfortunate accidents and Tesla has released some inconvenient news. Even Drumph has kept his mouth shut in regards to Tesla.

And you're not thinking enough. Here, have some tinfoil and here's a simple step-by-step folding instruction. *** Hugz n' kisses ***
 
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I agree with your production numbers and I do believe there is demand and that the trucks, boats and trains can carry the finished vehicles..BUT...Can they deliver them into customer's hands? To increase deliveries to customers they either need to be either 50% bigger at the SCs, 50% more efficient or a combination of both giving that 50% increase.
The reason Tesla had 5k not delivered in Q2 isn't an indication of problems with delivery. It's much more difficult to produce a car than it is to deliver a car. They need to ramp their capacity to deliver cars by the M3 launch anyway. This is so much easier to do than ramping production that I'm not worried about it.

the leased cars, Tesla is taking a lot of depreciation on the un-used 15 kWh since a 3 year old X75 won't be worth $9g more than an X60. If the car depreciates by half, then unlocking the 15 kWh might add $4.5g in value to a 3 year old car, which is probably equal to Tesla's cost for the 15 kWh so TSLA just breaks even with this delayed revenue.
Tesla's pack cost is under $190 per kWh and the incremental cost of a larger pack is obviously less.
There is no question that the Solar City acquisition is a risky proposition and will require huge amounts of capital.
I disagree with both of those assumptions!
 
sdtslafan, post: 1630876,
"Over the past few weeks, I've been thinking a lot about Solar City and solar in general. I have come to personally believe that distributed solar on individual households is an uphill battle that will be difficult to win. I think the net metering rulings in Nevada and Arizona are a signal of what will be a growing trend. The bottom line is, a consumer with rooftop solar is always at a disadvantage. In most cases, he/she cannot live completely off grid even with several power walls in the garage. Access to the grid will in most cases remain vital and that gives the utilities a big advantage and a good deal of leverage. I have a 5 KW system which will do fine most summer days, but what about a string of cloudy days in the winter? Even with 10 power walls in my garage, I want access to the grid for piece of mind. And utilities can charge me whatever they want for access to the grid in the long term, as net metering laws phase out."


The real estate contained upon residential rooftops is vast. If used, it is an area that is closest to the source of demand than any other possibility. And, it is already there: unlike taking up even more space on vast tracks of empty land. You are most correct when you point out that there will be times of extended shortfall of power received from the sun (a week or more of dense cloud cover, very short winter days with very little production, etc.).But that does not mean we are left with only one back up; the monopoly electric utility company. A small back up generator can be employed for these rare occasions. If integrated into our solar and battery system, it could seamlessly supply power at these times when we have no other choice. To hell with the idea of power company dependency. It is absolutely NOT our only option.
 
Why are people still responding to X Yes?? Please stop, it adds no value to the forum. He's been posting drivel for weeks, we are all aware his points aren't valid.
Apparently his fellow trolls are on vacation and he is filling in for everyone else. Maybe he is a summer intern. And imagine the pressure. No matter how hard he trolls, Tesla SP refuses to collapse. The guy may not have a job when the real trolls come back.
 
Something has been nagging at me regarding the plethora of negative Tesla articles currently on display - from Seeking Alpha (76+ a few days ago since SCTY bid) to the Fortune Feud to The Huffington Post's "Tesla's Worst Month Ever" meme - since when has HuffPost joined Fortune, Forbes, NYT and LA Times as Musk-haters? There have been very few articles in defense (Road and a Track) or even neutral. It's as bad of a barrage as I've seen since I started following in 2013.

It has been hypothesized here that this is a combination of short/Koch/oil/car/advertising bias cabal to depress Tesla share price. What if the opposite is true - what if it is bullish long-term investors trying to keep share prices artificially low to accumulate shares? If there was some known or suspected event that the Wall Street players anticipated, the best way to accumulate shares would be a FUD barrage. This goes to Curt's video he posts from time-to-time about Cramer's tips on market manipulation.

It would be interesting to see the put/call ratio recently.(OK...I looked, bit bearish. Put/Call Ratio for TSLA - TESLA MOTORS)

This is pure speculation, but it makes me wonder when I see a one-sided, full-throated condemnation of a company in such a concentrated manner over some fairly benign "headlines".
We are poised for a breakout over the next several years. It will be choppy, but the general direction will be up. TSLA set a vision out years ago and at the first sign of achieving it (.01 earnings in Q1 2013) the market ran with it for 18 months and then the price has been bobbing as the execution has been bobbing. With execution set to improve and a new vision about to be shared, those two catalysts will propel the stock. Then as we bobble this new vision in the future - ramping to 500,000 cars, integrating Tesla Energy with SCTY, Gigafactory as Product, the Transportation Electrifying Swiftly Leveraging Autonomy (TESLA) driving service - the share price will soar and dip, but in the end they'll deliver. Hang on.
 
If bullish, you don't want to be LOLing. CR and Adam Jonas are influential with Tesla owners and potential owners.
I think it's rather comical that consumer reports thinks they have the ability to influence Tesla to disable something so revolutionary.... Don't get me wrong, the circumstances of their foundation are tragic (the death), but that should be no reason to disable it for the ENTIRE fleet. Especially when we have well over 100 million miles on the system.
 
All these actors and celebrities who call themselves environmentalists make me sick. They sit on the sidelines and do nothing to stand up for Tesla and their vision. I have never, in my entire life, seen so many negative articles. They literally pop up on my twitter news feed about once a minute. Who is going to write something positive?

The next few weeks is where the rubber meets the road. We must see some positive catalyst. We will break one direction or the other.....
 
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@jhm

To get a more current view of how the utilities are viewing distributed energy, you may want to consider this article:
Electric Utilities Prepare for a Grid Dominated by Renewable Energy

"Our monopoly days are coming to an end." -- NV Energy
ed.
did you note the part "with around 6,500 megawatts from solar,........ In addition, California’s grid system has roughly 4,000 megawatts of behind-the-meter solar, which is growing at a rate of about 70 megawatts per month."
the behind the meter, which i believe is distributed, roof top solar is close to amount of utility solar, and has possibility of aggregation into VPP (virtual power plants) for frequency regulation and such, lowering need for peaker plants (and how Diablo Canyon Nuke that makes 18terawatt hours/year is being replace in 9 years by renewablles!!)
 
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All these actors and celebrities who call themselves environmentalist make me sick. They sit on the sidelines and do nothing to stand up for Tesla and their vision. I have never, in my entire life, seen so many negative articles. They literally pop up on my twitter news feed about once a minute. Who is going to write something positive?
People love negativity, more so now than ever before, just look at all the BS "creators" are posting on YouTube these days... Everything is about drama/has a negative twist.
 
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If bullish, you don't want to be LOLing. CR and Adam Jonas are influential with Tesla owners and potential owners.
Please stop talking about Jonas. No one here cares about analysts much beyond the potential for initial bumps or decreases in Stock price on a single day.

The vast majority of analysts following tesla know less about it than many if not most of the posters here.

It's a really boring strawman basically.
 
To try to put the autopilot issues in scope, GM ignition-gate caused 124 deaths and 258 additional significant injuries. There is room for improvement for autopilot, that is why it is beta. The whole idea of deploying this in beta is the crowdsource data, which is helping speed up deployment of autonomous driving by a decade or more. Tesla has disrupted industry plans for autonomous mode in the late 2020's by pushing for 2018-2020 timeline. While not perfect, it is already showing potentially better than unaided driving already. The one death was on the most dangerous highway design, high speed with cross traffic, hitting a truck with a design that is illegal in Europe. It does not detract from the loss of life, but based on empirical data, should redouble efforts to continue the move to autonomous driving. If this early version has already cut fatalities by almost 50% (130 million mile intervals, vs 90 mm intervals), this technology could already save thousands of lives. If we are to ban anything, it should be cars without auto-braking and other driver assist technologies.

The emphasis on danger of new systems and acceptance of greater dangers of existing systems is an ironic condition of human observation. It is an issue that all people who drive change in their jobs and lives should be aware of every day. Managing this process in the light of day and under the scrutiny of every naysayer and posing stakeholder forces greater vigilance and quality than issues that are hidden from public view.

Tesla drama versus GM, and this does not include GM car accidents due to lower crash safety and accident avoidance.

Ten times more deaths linked to faulty switch than GM first reported
 
You guys are thinking way to hard on this. Save the tin foil hats. The negative articles are solely based on News. There have been unfortunate accidents and Tesla has released some inconvenient news. Even Drumph has kept his mouth shut in regards to Tesla.
XYes? a curiosity question. Are you on Seeking Alpha? your writing style is like a small number of posters there
 
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Also should be considered is that Tesla could "rent" you out the extra kWh for a number of days (say you were going on holiday or a business trip). Make the costing unattractive to abuse but attractive enough to offer and get income for Tesla against the investment that they left in the car.
@DrJohnM could this go with the thesis, that if you purchase the "smaller" battery, the capacity will never decrease and have longer life, as the hidden portion can keep the usable level always constant, and if you opt to "purchase" the additional ~10-20% capacity, it can be software queried to ensure it is 'real'
 
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