Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Gerasimental]

You're plain wrong. Tesla has disconnected from anything else, and is pretty much suffering on its own, or in sympathy with everything and anything else.

Not quite true. Overlay a TSLA chart with a handful of other automotive stocks and youll see it's been pretty much in line with the norm. Only in the last few days has it beome the worst performer. Before that it was right in the middle of the pack

 

[MitchJi]

pdate: A Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement confirming the end of the 85 kWh version in Canada:

“The recently introduced 90kWh battery pack offers unprecedented range and value that has been well received by our customers. As a result, we will no longer be offering the 85kWh battery. Model S is designed to be completely customizable, ensuring that customers are able to build the car that meets their unique needs and Tesla is committed to continued innovation and the development of industry-leading technology.”

IMO the 90 cells don't cost Tesla more than the 85 cells. I think this means that Panasonic is starting to produce more 90 cells.

 

[BriansTesla]

I am officially out of here folks. Liquidated all my positions just now. Moving on to more controlled investment projects. Certainly enjoyed interacting with everyone and wish you all the best. Had to take my losses and move on before the account was completely empty! I learned quite a bit over the last year and look forward to applying it constructively in the future. Just not in this venue. It's for the pros and I am certainly not one of those!
Best to all!

Sorry to see you go Scott. For the record, my portfolio is down about $500K from ATH and $300K from a few days ago. I am not selling. I believe in the company, it's vision, its values and its products. There are some enormous players allied against the company but they are operating from fear and greed. They will not win!

 

[dmckinstry]

This is just horrible stock performance, so disappointing. It means I have to cancel my X order and lose my deposit. I'm not a whealty guy, I need the stock to be at $250 level to be able to go through with the purchase of a vehicle that costs $125K. I was counting on a new ATH this summer but now I don't see how in the world this stock could even get back to $250 level at that time.

I don't know what the current rules are, but when I got my option to configure in ~Oct. 2012, I was able to defer without penalty. I didn't actually confirm my purchase configuration until May 2013, after the stock went over $90+ a share. I'd had my reservation in since Feb. 2010 through.
In any case, good luck.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, I'm now _angry_ with Elon for how he managed expectations.
Before this, I though he's likely to turn into one of the most important historical persons.

Maybe this means we're at the bottom? But I called it 3 times in January now: 1. scared, 2.feeling bad, 3. angry - what's next?
Oh, acceptance, yeah, I remember it from October...

 

[Fallenone]

Agree. Even X in early production has lower GM, their much higher ASP will make the gross profit better on the X than S this quarter (and probably more so for the rest of the year, I anticipate most X delivered this year are 90D with lots of options). Cutting CapEx on GF is not enough for FCF Q1 2016, they must deliver significant amount of X, my estimate is at least 4k, with more than 11k S.

Problem I see is this does not seem to be going as planned per Elons steep ramp comment when FCF was being discussed. I think FCF and MX ramp go together.

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Elon has been doing this kind of stuff for 10 years. Should get used to it and expect as much.

Well, I'm now _angry_ with Elon for how he managed expectations.
Before this, I though he's likely to turn into one of the most important historical persons.

Maybe this means we're at the bottom? But I called it 3 times in January now: 1. scared, 2.feeling bad, 3. angry - what's next?
Oh, acceptance, yeah, I remember it from October...

 

[BriansTesla]

Yep. And this article from Bloomberg shows housing, even luxury housing, already taking a hit in Texas.

The Surge in U.S. Mansion Prices Is Now Over - Bloomberg Business

Just as a counterpoint.

US new-home sales soar in December

US home prices rise in November; all-time highs in 4 cities

High-end home sales booming as tech execs, foreign buyers shell out millions

 

[ludicrousspeed]

For those who were around to follow the initial production ramp of the Model S... how does the initial MS ramp compare to the initial ramp of the X?

Founders' MS deliveries began June 22, 2012 (end of Q2), which then led to quarterly deliveries of 321, 2400, and 4,900 to follow. MX Founders' began on September 29, 2015 (end of Q3 - roughly 3 months later in its respective calendar year) and seem to follow a similar pattern with 208 last quarter and probably ~600-800 in Q1 about 1/3 of the way through. Of course, once the Model S had a breakthrough in Q1 the company propelled to new heights, which is what I believe will happen with the Model X (and possibly again with Tesla Energy.) Maybe we will have to wait until Q2 earnings released in early August for the type of major boost that longs are looking for.. or is there any reason to believe that it will be earlier, later, or not at all with the X?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Elon has been doing this kind of stuff for 10 years. Should get used to it and expect as much.

Well, I didn't observe him that long. I intensely started following Tesla end of 2014, saw everything they've overcome, and decided to bet on them. I've expected some looseness in dates of milestones, but this is awful expectation management. He kept claiming deliveries will start in Q3 '15 and we're now almost in February, not really rolling much.

It's my fault, I overestimated Elon and Tesla.
I still know they will win big in time, but I may be obliterated before it (remember, options differ from stock in being time sensitive)...

 

[Fallenone]

Ashlee Vance's book on Elon is a good read, highly recommended.

Keep in mind all the promises Elon made and broke over and over again but eventually realize.

Falcon 1, late about 6 years from Elon's first promise.
Roadster, late about 5 years from Elon's first promise. Also price was hiked about 20% from his promise.
Model S, late about 4 years from Elon's first promise.
Model X, late about 2 years from Elon's first promise.

His improving, actually.

Well, I didn't observe him that long. I intensely started Tesla end of 2014, saw everything they overcome, and decided to bet on them. I expected some looseness in dates, but this is awful expectation management. He kept claiming deliveries will start in Q3 '15 and we're now almost in February, not really rolling much.

My fault, I overestimated Elon and Tesla.
I still know they will win big in time, but I may be obliterated before it (remember, options differ from stock in being time sensitive)...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Not quite true. Overlay a TSLA chart with a handful of other automotive stocks and youll see it's been pretty much in line with the norm. Only in the last few days has it beome the worst performer. Before that it was right in the middle of the pack

last few days are what concerns me. What if there is real problem with Model X and someone knows it? Someone knew it before end of September, where stock started falling before X unveiling.

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Ashlee Vance's book on Elon is a good read, highly recommended.

Keep in mind all the promises Elon made and broke over and over again but eventually realize.

Falcon 1, late about 6 years from Elon's first promise.
Roadster, late about 5 years from Elon's first promise. Also price was hiked about 20% from his promise.
Model S, late about 4 years from Elon's first promise.
Model X, late about 2 years from Elon's first promise.

His improving, actually.

I read the book. I get 6 years delay when you're starting rocket business you don't know about, and 4 years delay when starting car business. Model X harder to understand, but I thought that was lesson learned. I even understand that he uses impossible to achieve goals to commit and push organization. But, such slow movement since September while leaving impression it's all good?

But let's leave 'hate Elon' on the side, as I said it's my fault, I was just venting, or rather, trying to call bottom.

 

[MitchJi]

Video of EM in HK:
2016 StartmeupHK Venture Forum - Elon Musk on Entrepreneurship and Innovation - YouTube

 

[Fallenone]

Well last August when they had their Q2 ER and lowered guidance, I knew there was trouble with the X production. Did I sell shares? No. But I expected we revisit 180 and was actually surprised we held up above 200 in 2015. I was surprised for how slow the ramp up for X though. But as long as we're above 180, we're fine, I think.

last few days are what concerns me. What if there is real problem with Model X and someone knows it? Someone knew it before end of September, where stock started falling before X unveiling.

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ting car business. Model X harder to understand, but I thought that was lesson learned.
I read the book. I get 6 years delay when you're starting rocket business you don't know about, and 4 years delay when start

 

[maoing]

are you sure the 180 won't be broken down tomorrow? Just kidding

Well last August when they had their Q2 ER and lowered guidance, I knew there was trouble with the X production. Did I sell shares? No. But I expected we revisit 180 and was actually surprised we held up above 200 in 2015. I was surprised for how slow the ramp up for X though. But as long as we're above 180, we're fine, I think.

 

[aznt1217]

Well, I didn't observe him that long. I intensely started following Tesla end of 2014, saw everything they've overcome, and decided to bet on them. I've expected some looseness in dates of milestones, but this is awful expectation management. He kept claiming deliveries will start in Q3 '15 and we're now almost in February, not really rolling much.

It's my fault, I overestimated Elon and Tesla.
I still know they will win big in time, but I may be obliterated before it (remember, options differ from stock in being time sensitive)...

So then don't trade options... ? You already assessed you have an incredibly high risk tolerance to use derivatives right? Litmus test is, would I be okay with this going to 0. I get the fact that your pissed. Been there (believe me). I'm one of the few that have stuck around since late 2012/early 2013 back when $30 was the $200 mark now. Deliveries did start in Q3 2015 it's a question of how many and the volume of mass deliveries.

People keep claiming X deliveries have come to a screeching halt based on next to nothing in respect to anecdotal evidence.

Comparing S to X ramp, I believe this is already happening much faster and some of these are double edged swords.

- Suppliers are a little bit more (little bit) confident in Tesla
- More Robots (they front loaded the investment in the machines)
- More people now (arguably good and bad)
- More Service Centers

But the main thing is they learned that with early early S deliveries that were rushed, the experience wasn't as good as it should be. I suspect if there is a "slow down" for deliveries it's because of keeping experience quality high. Elon himself acknowledged it. If dialing back/holding back a bit will ensure highest quality, Tesla will do it.

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are you sure the 180 won't be broken down tomorrow? Just kidding

It could and we know you'd prop it right back up

 

[Fallenone]

Not tomorrow, no. Post Q4 ER maybe?

are you sure the 180 won't be broken down tomorrow? Just kidding

 

[theschnell]

Wow, I haven't been able to stay up to date, but I just read the last few pages. I feel bad for folks who don't know Elon's history of overpromising and underdelivering when it comes to scheduling. Not when it comes to products, just scheduling. I'm as chill as a cucumber. Probably because I don't own a single call, just shares. Although I am planning on making my first calls purchase sometime after ER but before Model 3 reveal, assuming the train hasn't already left the station. But even then, it will only be a very minor purchase.

Given the Macro background, I am actually quite happy that TSLA has not broken its 52 week low yet.

I still believe this will turn around, and I think rather than criticizing Tesla for being late, which honestly based on their history should be expected, folks need to look in the mirror and consider whether their investment strategy fits their risk profile. I know, easier said than done.

 

[maoing]

Interesting? How do you have such confidence? If market tank tomorrow due to bad AMZN ER, TSLA would be easily below 180. The thing concerned me in the past week, TSLA silently dropped from above 200 to 182 without volume, gap down and major negative news, even there is no bounce. Everyday just looks open high, dip new low and close red. It sounds to me some big hands know sth. main street doen't know and dump stock constantly, so the bottom not reached yet.

Not tomorrow, no. Post Q4 ER maybe?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It could and we know you'd prop it right back up

Well, I have ammunition for couple more days, if I'm ready to accept that it's hero or zero.
BTW, I assume you didn't think of it, but please don't offer obvious advice about option trading, when it was clear I regret my choices. The only result was I was momentarily pissed at you. Good now though!

 

[Matias]

People keep claiming X deliveries have come to a screeching halt based on next to nothing in respect to anecdotal evidence.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ture-Model-X-owners-NOT-receive-their-car-yet

There is a large number of sig owners who have not yet got their cars.

There is no ramp up.