-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
What the bottom may look like
With oil stabilizing for now, the broader markets are stabilizing and TSLA will likely bottom out soon. The main reason TSLA has been falling these past few days is because it has downward momentum and buyers typically wait for the momentum to change, rather than trying to catch falling knives. Please take what I say here with a grain of salt because we've all seen false bottoms and if the broader markets start heading down again they'll likely bring TSLA along for the ride.
TSLA recovers into the green and stays there until close after our typical morning plunge
The typical trading pattern for TSLA recently is to plunge during the first hour of trading (even if pre-market is up) and then to recover much but not all of that plunge as the day goes on. If we start seeing TSLA more than recovering from the plunge and going green at close, that's a significant change to momentum.
TSLA foregos the typical morning plunge
If there's no morning plunge, then this is a big indicator that things are changing.
TSLA climbs to reach max-pain
For a change, the actions of market makers could help us. With max-pain around 200 for Friday, a climb to this amount would be a nice bull signal.
TSLA has a positive 4Q ER
Although I expect TSLA to rise before Feb 10, if it has not by that point and the 4Q ER is good, we could see a sizeable trajectory upward.
With oil stabilizing for now, the broader markets are stabilizing and TSLA will likely bottom out soon. The main reason TSLA has been falling these past few days is because it has downward momentum and buyers typically wait for the momentum to change, rather than trying to catch falling knives. Please take what I say here with a grain of salt because we've all seen false bottoms and if the broader markets start heading down again they'll likely bring TSLA along for the ride.
TSLA recovers into the green and stays there until close after our typical morning plunge
The typical trading pattern for TSLA recently is to plunge during the first hour of trading (even if pre-market is up) and then to recover much but not all of that plunge as the day goes on. If we start seeing TSLA more than recovering from the plunge and going green at close, that's a significant change to momentum.
TSLA foregos the typical morning plunge
If there's no morning plunge, then this is a big indicator that things are changing.
TSLA climbs to reach max-pain
For a change, the actions of market makers could help us. With max-pain around 200 for Friday, a climb to this amount would be a nice bull signal.
TSLA has a positive 4Q ER
Although I expect TSLA to rise before Feb 10, if it has not by that point and the 4Q ER is good, we could see a sizeable trajectory upward.
Well, I have ammunition for couple more days, if I'm ready to accept that it's hero or zero.
BTW, I assume you didn't think of it, but please don't offer obvious advice about option trading, when it was clear I regret my choices. The only result was I was momentarily pissed at you. Good now though!
Good thing you knew. A lot of people here don't understand so I'd rather put the sign post on again even if it causes a momentary spike in blood pressure to OP.
I suspect a lot of large funds with exposure to oil have been forced to sell many of their larger holdings. This is part of the risk created by stranded assets! The RICO case regarding EXXON and the situation regarding the fiduciary responsibilities of Superannuation funds in Australia will be very significant. Basically, oil falling is causing a global economic reset of sorts, where money is flowing out of oil and coal and into solar, wind , and other new technology. The collapse in oil is spooking a lot of investors. China is only part of this. One comment Elon mentioned last week, that seems very significant is that all of China could very easily be powered by Solar Power.
The Chinese government is literally flooding China with solar panels. In China, the shift away from coal is happening. I'm more concerned about India, where the government can't simply force a shift away from coal.
Perhaps the collapse in the price of oil is a way for the Saudi's to force disinterested countries to stop producing oil and coal due to economics, while at the same time keeping Saudi oil the dominant source until demand falls to 0?
Log In - The New York Times
Church of England and New York State Fund to Press Exxon on Climate Change - WSJ
The Chinese government is literally flooding China with solar panels. In China, the shift away from coal is happening. I'm more concerned about India, where the government can't simply force a shift away from coal.
Perhaps the collapse in the price of oil is a way for the Saudi's to force disinterested countries to stop producing oil and coal due to economics, while at the same time keeping Saudi oil the dominant source until demand falls to 0?
Log In - The New York Times
Church of England and New York State Fund to Press Exxon on Climate Change - WSJ
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Reading from delivery thread Any Signature Model X owners NOT receive their car yet? - Page 4 ,
it seems that Model X build is stop to incorporate next round of improvements.
Now, this is actually better news than having issues scaling production.
If Elon comes clean on conference call: We have had issues, stopped production, and have since resolved issues, and right now, we 're building cars at sustainable pace that is 500 a week...
That would solve everything. Assumptions: 1. they resolve issues (or almost) before Q4 CC, 2. restart production couple of days before CC 3. scale nice chnunk at least 350-400, better 500 and 4. Elon puts ego on the side and admits they'd screwed up, but they've overcome it.
He _NEEDS_ to come clean, or no one is going to trust him anything...
it seems that Model X build is stop to incorporate next round of improvements.
Now, this is actually better news than having issues scaling production.
If Elon comes clean on conference call: We have had issues, stopped production, and have since resolved issues, and right now, we 're building cars at sustainable pace that is 500 a week...
That would solve everything. Assumptions: 1. they resolve issues (or almost) before Q4 CC, 2. restart production couple of days before CC 3. scale nice chnunk at least 350-400, better 500 and 4. Elon puts ego on the side and admits they'd screwed up, but they've overcome it.
He _NEEDS_ to come clean, or no one is going to trust him anything...
Regular people not connected to Tesla have received their Model X. There is no disaster lurking here. But Q1 2016 may bring more pain. Who knows if that possibility has been traded yet.
Huh? I am plain wrong and your explanation for this remark is to paraphrase what I said in a slightly more confused way. Well you are not plain wrong and QED neither am I, thanks.
these are typical manufacturing issues, regrettably the complexity of manufacturing model X
takes longer to debug . The mistake in my view was the unnecessary complexity. However,
once debugged, it should be blue skies. Probably ala Facebook price reaction today.
dreamingof3
Member
I don't expect the SP to pop just because Model X is manufactured at an exponential rate. For that to happen it also has to be visible in the quarterly results.
There are two potential catalysts I think for a significant pop (10%+) in SP. One is Model 3 reservations and the other is Q2 earnings release if they manage to get Model X production going at the end of Q1 or beginning of Q2.
Thats your assertion mine is different, model X production halts downtrend .
production implies revenues, the rest is easy
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I suspect the shorts are watching for TSLA recovering to green as well, and I suspect we'll see some selling as shorts manipulate TSLA down to slightly into red in order to avoid a green close after a morning dip. They're going to do a few things to forestall the end of their party, I suspect.
The good news is that it is becoming profitable to play the dips these days. Once enough traders start playing the dips, this activity will ultimately spell the end of the dips.
dreamingof3
Member
This MAY be the bottom. To see the share price bounce off of 182.41 is basically within a dollar of the 52 week low. I'm optimistic if we close green also
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
TL;DR Most of you can skip this, this is answer to Julian that clarifies my line of thinking in more details
Julian, huh, I would expect you to get it, but perhaps your reading comprehension is not as stellar as your writing (and I admit I write poorly, English is a second language for me). Or perhaps you get it, but are parsing statements so that you win on technicalities. If it’s second one, rest assure you will always win, I am neither skilled enough, nor motivated enough to spend time this way. Assuming it’s former, I’ll explain in more words. You said:
Julian: Nonsense. This price action is nothing to do with the Tesla business.
Z: Nope, it is something to do with Tesla business as Tesla is not following market or its peers FANG stocks. Example: after FB beat, they’re all up and Tesla was suffering massively this morning. I predict cause is a failure to ramp Model X. Please see my other comment earlier, I am actually constructive on Model X ramp, now that I understand build seem to have been intentionally stopped. There is a way to fix damage at conference call, should Elon chooses so.
Julian: This is a market reaction to the FED, oil, Apple's miss, JP Morgan - and 27.7 million shorts panicking to get out before their lies are exposed
Z: Tesla has been under the influence of markets due to oil, that’s true. However it has detached last few days and continued precipitous fall (weak correlation with auto stock). It’s these last few days that are concerning me, as they look a lot like end of September, where there was a hidden problem, Model X production wasn’t ready. Also, we’re close to lows of 2 years, and if we break $180, who knows where we end up, based just on technicals and panic. I’m comfortable at $200, but not $185. However, I am more positive now that I think I understand what’s happening with Tesla: they stop Model X build and are integrating next round of improvements, and when they restart, that’s hopefully with much increased output.
In the future, I’m not going to engage at all in this kind of debates - if you’re not willing to try hard to understand what I’m saying (and some of the others) on this forum, and win is what’s important to you, this is not productive use of my time. I place my ego in other things, this is not one of them.
I still enjoy your reading, your lines of reasoning and I think you’re substantially right on everything you commented re long term. But there are other smart people that are not as eloquent as you are, and it’s your decision to be open to it, or not.
Over and done.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
