Holding. I think the market is fearing the worst and it won't be as bad as expected. I'm expecting TSLA to remain level or start climbing moderately. Of course, with some volatility, like always.
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Unlike the others, I'm trimming out my trading shares (~100 of them). They're green now, so locking in their profits in case of a surprise!
The number of people who are voting that all the negative sentiment has been priced in worries me frankly. Since no one has mentioned it, I'll play the role of debbie-downer for now.
I fear that Q3 guidance won't be as great as we all hope. With production at 2k/wk, ending at 2200/wk, subtracting 2 week for production downtime/maintenance, we're looking at ~22k - 24k vehicles produced. Subtract 5k for the pipeline, and I'm expecting guidance of 22-23k vehicles delivered. Slightly below concensus and throws doubt about whether Q4 can deliver on the balance to meet the 80k for 2016 minimum goal.
And then just to counter myself, the rollback of the shares lent should keep that fear/concern in check, so I'll be buying back if there's a drop on thursday. If no drop, then keeping dry powder for the possibility that Trump is elected president (my buddha save us all in that case!)
I fear that Q3 guidance won't be as great as we all hope. With production at 2k/wk, ending at 2200/wk, subtracting 2 week for production downtime/maintenance, we're looking at ~22k - 24k vehicles produced. Subtract 5k for the pipeline, and I'm expecting guidance of 22-23k vehicles delivered. Slightly below concensus and throws doubt about whether Q4 can deliver on the balance to meet the 80k for 2016 minimum goal.
And then just to counter myself, the rollback of the shares lent should keep that fear/concern in check, so I'll be buying back if there's a drop on thursday. If no drop, then keeping dry powder for the possibility that Trump is elected president (my buddha save us all in that case!)
Holding my shares. Lent out at the moment, might be called back just before the vote of the merge with SCTY. Do anyone know the date of the vote? I have not got any prewarning of the date.
Losing money if the stock drops would be painful for me
But missing out on an unexpected rise would be excruciating
So I'll continue to hold my shares.
But missing out on an unexpected rise would be excruciating
So I'll continue to hold my shares.
Why would you subtract 2 weeks for production downtime/maintenance? The Fremont factory doesn't run 24x7. I believe they have 5 or 6 day workweek, and 2 shifts of 8 hours on each workday. Maintenance/tuning is done during this downtime.
My guess is Q3 guidance of around 24K to 27K deliveries.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
It will be when we least expect it. That is why I hold. I am an investor after all. Cheers
well, sorta. read JHM and looked at differential TSLA/SCTY. put the 2 in a "money bucket" and did a few buy/sells of one and other. managed to eek out a few additional shares of TSLA. otherwise will hold
dc_h
Active Member
With Model S demand hanging at almost exactly 1000 cars a week and production possibly shortening wait times slightly, the pressure is on for X production. If X is close to 1000, deliveries should be 24-26,000. Looking at the S delivery tracker, orders seem very close to 1000 for the last 3+ months. The 60 has definitely recharged demand. Now that speculation about the 100 is almost entirely died down, I'm hoping it is a sign it will be revealed very soon. Thinking there will be a 5000 car delivery windfall seems overly optimistic. X's will be in transit to international markets and 5000 is less than 3 weeks of cars in transit. They can time US deliveries to hold west coast deliveries back in August and keep US rolling inventory under two weeks. Not sure how much below 2 weeks they can manage. For international, it would be great to get some input from supply chain experts on the thread. I'm assuming Asia and Europe both require about 3-5 weeks and that is about half the sales channel.
Sorry if this is more medium term, but would love to have better estimates. We missed pretty bad last quarter and would love to see us crowd source some more reliable estimates.
One upbeat stat, the quarterly entries on the Model S tracker site are almost equal to Q2 already.
Sorry if this is more medium term, but would love to have better estimates. We missed pretty bad last quarter and would love to see us crowd source some more reliable estimates.
One upbeat stat, the quarterly entries on the Model S tracker site are almost equal to Q2 already.
The current schedule is actually two alternating 12-hour shifts, starting Monday at 6 am and ending Friday at 6 pm. Workers do 3 days one week, then 4 days next. Source: factory employee.
SunCatcher
Member
They'll have to pry them from my cold, dead fingers. And I plan to live on for quite some time
before that happens. Strong believer in this company and its future.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Where's 5K carry-over from Q2 in your Q3 estimate? I think 5K pipeline is kinda high too. Last time they couldn't time it for quarter end, this time they probably can. Not sure if they care about that at this point though.
For me the most interesting from ER, aside from any SCTY comments and anything else surprising, is if they give some details on demand situation for S and X.
3Victoria
Active Member
There will always be some in transit ... this number should be static, but hopefully less than 5000 usually. We may gain from the previous 5k, but lose say 2k.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
........and the results so far tell me why the shorts are so furious. The stock has a difficult time going down as the shareholder base is either insiders or loyal tesla believers like the majority of us. Love this forum.
I have just started a thread in the investor's forum for investors who are in Reno this week to tag along to the gigafactory opening if a guest slot opens up. Naturally, I've added my name to the thread.
In Reno, Hoping to join the gigaparty
In Reno, Hoping to join the gigaparty
Its after hours and I am in the mood to recount an interesting realization. This is probably not the right thread, but whatever.
From time to time, I like to read up on the short BS on seeking alpha to keep myself entertained more than anything else. so I was reading this article by one Mr. Santos and believe it or not, I found an unlikely bullish argument. He was saying
Randy Carlson is an engineer at heart and a huge TSLA bull. And he made some bold predictions in the article that Mr. Santos refers above. If you have an engineering bent of mind, I'd highly recommend pouring a glass of red wine and reading through that article. It is a very interesting thesis he puts together, based just on the fact that the battery pack of model 3 is much larger than expected, given the energy needs. Specifically, he makes a few bold predictions.
This morning I was skimming through electrek.co and i was startled when i was reading this article. Specifically the article calls out a few things
This was again a Carlson prediction, that it was infact the packs being 'aged' as opposed to the cells. This closed the loop for me on why the pack costs could approach $100 / Kwh with the industry at more than twice the cost with prismatic cells.
Now here is the best part. In a different article Carlson runs the math and arrives at a 44 KWH capacity for the base Model S. This seems reasonable given that an S60, a larger, heavier, and a higher Cd car can achieve 210 miles. So long run, the battery costs for the 3 would be 5-6K for the average 40K model 3 car. This leaves a lot of room for TSLA to very comfortably make 25% GM on the car in the not too far future. If anything, I'd guess that in 2020, unless TSLA drops the prices, the GM could even approach 30%.
Really unbelieveable what Elon and JB accomplished with the gigafactory. Godspeed Tesla and TSLA!!
From time to time, I like to read up on the short BS on seeking alpha to keep myself entertained more than anything else. so I was reading this article by one Mr. Santos and believe it or not, I found an unlikely bullish argument. He was saying
Randy Carlson is an engineer at heart and a huge TSLA bull. And he made some bold predictions in the article that Mr. Santos refers above. If you have an engineering bent of mind, I'd highly recommend pouring a glass of red wine and reading through that article. It is a very interesting thesis he puts together, based just on the fact that the battery pack of model 3 is much larger than expected, given the energy needs. Specifically, he makes a few bold predictions.
- The battery is air cooled instead of liquid cooled, which is a great way to drop battery costs
- The battery pack is probably the same thickness as a Model S despite longer cells (70 MM vs 65 MM in S/X)
- Most importantly, Li-ion cells once manufactured need to be 'aged' by very slowly charging & discharging them over a few days, using expensive equipment, which requires these cells to be stored at a production location. This is why cell manufacturing needs a large foot print and expensive. Randy's contention was this was short circuited by TSLA by building the packs first from cells and then 'aging' them in the battery packs
This morning I was skimming through electrek.co and i was startled when i was reading this article. Specifically the article calls out a few things
This is only possible if the connectors are between cells rather than on top of cells, strongly hinting that the battery is air-cooled and not liquid cooled and validates Carlson's first hypothesis
This was again a Carlson prediction, that it was infact the packs being 'aged' as opposed to the cells. This closed the loop for me on why the pack costs could approach $100 / Kwh with the industry at more than twice the cost with prismatic cells.
Now here is the best part. In a different article Carlson runs the math and arrives at a 44 KWH capacity for the base Model S. This seems reasonable given that an S60, a larger, heavier, and a higher Cd car can achieve 210 miles. So long run, the battery costs for the 3 would be 5-6K for the average 40K model 3 car. This leaves a lot of room for TSLA to very comfortably make 25% GM on the car in the not too far future. If anything, I'd guess that in 2020, unless TSLA drops the prices, the GM could even approach 30%.
Really unbelieveable what Elon and JB accomplished with the gigafactory. Godspeed Tesla and TSLA!!
Good article!
BMS should be able to age cells in the pack, I don't see any problem with that nor it being some kind of groundbreaking improvement. Pack height, AFAIR Tesla's new cells have a different cap design that is less wasteful on space than what everyone else is doing at the moment. Might explain some of the height efficiency.
BMS should be able to age cells in the pack, I don't see any problem with that nor it being some kind of groundbreaking improvement. Pack height, AFAIR Tesla's new cells have a different cap design that is less wasteful on space than what everyone else is doing at the moment. Might explain some of the height efficiency.
3Victoria
Active Member
I was rather taken by that article, too, but am now more doubtful that it is right -- after some discussion on other threads. The feeling is that air-cooling would be much less efficient and harder to control.
However, whatever happens, I think that the Tesla team will make a good engineering choice.
I do not see why this design problem has any relation to the success and usefulness of the Gigafactory. The batteries are needed and the rationale for it are sound.
However, whatever happens, I think that the Tesla team will make a good engineering choice.
I do not see why this design problem has any relation to the success and usefulness of the Gigafactory. The batteries are needed and the rationale for it are sound.
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