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AlMc, you won the bet by a nickel. Congrats.
In the defense of my horse in this race, if he wasn't crowded near the rail by the shorts coming into the final stretch, I think he would have had that 192.50.
Edit: The good news is that we closed far enough into the green and with a nice upward burst towards the end so that we could see a bump up right after opening on Monday. Whether that bump can last throughout the first hour or so of trading or will be built upon is anyone's guess at this point. Stay tuned.
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VW halts production at two German plants - spokesman - Yahoo Finance
Volkswagen will almost definitely needs to sell some of its facilities. Any bets about when VW will finally admit it?
Volkswagen will almost definitely needs to sell some of its facilities. Any bets about when VW will finally admit it?
Big hands are smart, you need to think why they choose other stocks/sectors instead of TSLA which is obviously bargain from the price history in the past 24 months. I'm not saying TSLA can't jump big on next week, but the price action in last two weeks definitely not good.
This is huge! Company responsible for California Methane fiasco is facing fines of $25 million for every day that has passed since they became aware of the leak. This could easily equal tens of billions of dollars.
https://www.rt.com/usa/330396-gas-leak-california-lawsuit/
Edit: Misread the quote. Still, this will almost certainly lead to more lawsuits, and a settlement similar to or larger than the BP oil spill.
Wasn't someone quoted as saying they've known about the leak for years?
The Company Behind LA's Methane Disaster Knew Its Well Was Leaking 24 Years Ago | Motherboard
That would be $3.65 billion in fines from this one organization.
https://www.rt.com/usa/330396-gas-leak-california-lawsuit/
Edit: Misread the quote. Still, this will almost certainly lead to more lawsuits, and a settlement similar to or larger than the BP oil spill.
Wasn't someone quoted as saying they've known about the leak for years?
The Company Behind LA's Methane Disaster Knew Its Well Was Leaking 24 Years Ago | Motherboard
That would be $3.65 billion in fines from this one organization.
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Looks like $440,000 per day but still good to see some consequences for this debacle.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
There is only one way to calculate FCF, it's not open to interpretation. Simple way to think about it: You look at the balance at beginning of the quarter, vs end of the quarter. If balance is higher at the end of the month, you have positive cash flow.
Add: Both FCF and revenue non-GAAP or GAAP are calculated independently, from the same set of data. Raw transactional data. There is NO formula to get to FCF from revenue results and vice versa. You just don't know what parts are deffer-ed etc.
I know this as I work in domain industry. We sell domain for 10 years at $10 a year. That is $100 FCF, but 83c revenue monthly deferr-ed over 10 years. Different businesses will pay attention more to one or another, but you always have to look at FCF to not overextend oneself. For our business, that's also any reasonable way to measure success internally, as deffered revenue doesn't do us any good, it can't pay salaries...
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Man you seem really hung up on the shorts :smile: You do realize with over 25% already sold short it is far more likely the "shorts" are the buyers here given we're down about 20% from the 200 dma, covering to take big gains and not being greedy.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
An important factor, that's almost never mentioned in discussions about TSLA's CapEx, is how they actually spend the larger chunks of that money:
Nuumi building - Great Deal.
Stamping machine - Great Deal.
Solyndra building lease - Probably an excellent deal.
The cavernous Solyndra building–which the commercial brokerage firm JLL marketed under the banner “Think Big” –is where Solyndra solar tubes once rolled off final assembly lines. But it’s been embarrassingly empty ever since the corrupt startup spectacularly imploded.
Plans to purchase metals (e.g. nickel), directly from the Canadian Mines.
Signing purchase agreements with small lithium mines, to help them obtain funding for production (brilliant - zero cash move with a potentially huge payoff).
And some people think that GM might end up with lower battery pack costs than Tesla. That's about as likely as a Pop Warner Football Team beating an NFL Superbowl winning team.
Julian, you said that the GF would be the last time a battery producer allowed a car company to be a partner. I don't believe that Tesla needs Panasonic's expertise to build 18650 Cells. I think Panasonic's participation helps, but I believe that the main thing that Tesla needed-needs is access to capital.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Grossly off-topic, but what the heck. In the long run it's going to help the stock, but not the short-term.
A brief moment to celebrate the fact that in New Mexico today, members of the Tesla Club of New Mexico showed up at the State Capitol with six Model Ss of various colors and configurations, parked at the Capitol steps for a photo op, then went in and got introduced on the floor of the Senate by a very supportive State Senator who invited the legislators to come out and check out the cars and learn more about the benefits of electric vehicles. This was all part of an effort to educate the legislature here that there are laws on the books (that they probably are not even aware of) that are harming NM Tesla owners by blocking Tesla from opening up any service centers in-state, and blocking Tesla from opening up any stores to sell cars. We are trying to fix that in time for the rollout of the affordable Model III. it's a long agonizing process, but today was a baby step. It was fun hearing State Senators "whoop" and cheer when they saw the Tesla Club of New Mexico stand up in the Senate Gallery.
A brief moment to celebrate the fact that in New Mexico today, members of the Tesla Club of New Mexico showed up at the State Capitol with six Model Ss of various colors and configurations, parked at the Capitol steps for a photo op, then went in and got introduced on the floor of the Senate by a very supportive State Senator who invited the legislators to come out and check out the cars and learn more about the benefits of electric vehicles. This was all part of an effort to educate the legislature here that there are laws on the books (that they probably are not even aware of) that are harming NM Tesla owners by blocking Tesla from opening up any service centers in-state, and blocking Tesla from opening up any stores to sell cars. We are trying to fix that in time for the rollout of the affordable Model III. it's a long agonizing process, but today was a baby step. It was fun hearing State Senators "whoop" and cheer when they saw the Tesla Club of New Mexico stand up in the Senate Gallery.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
He exercised right to buy 532000 actions at ~$6, which is price of stock when he was granted these options.
This is presumably because one of the goals have been hit, as his stock options vest as milestones are achieved...
But it could have been one of the old milestones (Model X design etc...), as options typically have 7 or 10 year until expiry, and he may have kept them until they almost expired
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chickensevil
Active Member
Panasonic also helps them avoid having to forge their own alliances with suppliers and/or figure certain things out on their own. Why reinvent the wheel if you don't need to. Panasonic makes really good batteries. This could only happen if Panasonic's suppliers were also top notch. So why not bring them all under one roof and have them do what they do best? I agree that they could probably do it themselves... but I think it was more than just about access to capital. It would have cost Tesla far more than the 1.8B that Panasonic is bringing to the table since they would have to do a lot of extra R&D work to solve the same problems that Panasonic and its suppliers solved long, long ago. The only reason Tesla would shift this is if they get issues with suppliers (as they have elsewhere) and therefore it becomes more profitable to invest the funding now themselves to bring the product to the table in the timeframe that they need.
This is why I never understood people's arguments that they didn't understand why Tesla couldn't ramp production up faster than they have been and such, when other manufacturers can take a concept and churn out 1M of them in the first year. Well yeah, but companies like GM, Toyota, and VW have also been making cars for over 100 years.... so they didn't have to solve the problems of manufacturing scale because they solved that 100 years ago and have been iterating on it ever since.
This also works in our favor as the ICE manufacturers keep delaying the transition to an EV. They don't currently have the expertise and knowledge to make complex battery systems (e.g. 7k cells being micromanaged) and high performing AC Motors... and other critical power systems that are part of an EV. This is going to take them time and money. Funny how Porsche is having to invest something like 1B in retooling of their factories so they can actually make EVs... guess everyone is going to have to pay the same price Tesla has had to (maybe more) in order to shift to EVs. The only current advantage that a current manufacturer like VW, GM, and Toyota have is that they are already sitting on a decent pile of cash. But I am sure it would take all of Toyota's pile of cash (something like 50BN) in order for them to shift their current 10M in annual car production to EVs... as it seems it takes about 1BN per 500k cars. How do you sell that to shareholders? Hey guys we are going to sink all of our cash holdings into reinventing the company to be an EV maker. Or even if Toyota went 100% Hydrogen... just retooling their factories alone would destroy their cash and then some... Turns out it is just as expensive to retool a working factory as it is to put in equipment in an empty factory... who knew?
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This is a very good thing to see. So, all those people who have been complaining that stock options become vested and other executives sold them off at face value rather than buying them, I (and I am sure others) have mentioned at that point that this was normal. Many executives only hold on to a portion of the stock options they are granted and sell the rest off for either cash or to diversify it elsewhere. And I also added that Elon was the *only* one to watch for on these, because he has stated that he will not sell his shares. He stated in the past that he was the first one in, and he will be the last one out. Of course all those that like to make huge negative articles about the doom and gloom of Executives selling their stock options, won't likely write any articles about how this is a positive side that Elon PURCHASED all ~500k shares that he was granted.
ludicrousspeed
Member
That's what you would think, but short interest has increased drastically from December updates to the recent January update. Don't always assume that shorts would be smart and cover when SP falls only $5-$10 near a two-year low, but they seem to get greedy. Just like how longs can get greedy with major price increases, it does go both ways.
That's incredible, hats off to all participants. Moments like these show why Tesla is so unique, in that their customer base will go out of their way to help them succeed. Hopefully those Senators listened with open ears.
Elon had un-exercised, vested option for approximately 6.7 million shares under the December, 2009 incentive plan with an exercise price of $6.63/ share. He exercised about 8% of those options recently by paying into Tesla's treasury about $3.5 million ($6.63 x 532,000) The market value of the transaction is approximately $102 million. He must exercise the remaining 6,168,000 options before early December or they will become worthless.
chickensevil
Active Member
I thought I would add to my own post regarding this. From the last reported earnings this was what it contained for the 2012 CEO Grant section on page 18:
So it should be noted that in order for them to pay out *all* of the currently given out 7 of the 10 vesting tranches also requires a market cap of 3.2B + 4B * 7 = 31.2BN market cap which is at current share count is 238.25 (give or take a penny). I don't know how long the share price has to sit at that value for it to count, but since they considered the 7th on achieved as of Oct 6, and at that time the shareprice closed at 241.46, then they likely were able to pay that out. If I also recall it takes about 3 months or so from submitting something like this to have it actually happen given required waiting periods with the SEC which is why we are only just now seeing the purchase go through.
Now I know you might be tempted to say that it isn't fair that after that the price went down, etc, etc... I would remind you that there are 3 more compensations coming up of which 1 of them should have actually already happened (Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles). This will also require that the Market cap go up another 4B to allow pay out which is 35.2B or 268.80 (give or take) a share. So, I feel this is extremely relevant to the short term price, because now, more than ever, Elon has motivation to not just avoid saying things that would destroy share value (cause... you know... that's never happened... -_-) but he is actually motivated to get the price back into the 270s.
Also, if I am not mistaken these expire at the end of 2016... I would have to dig up the original note back in 2012 to find out, but there is an expiration date on it... So given that he is unlikely to throw away money, I would expect there is enough motivation for Elon to ensure full attention and focus is on proper execution of the company to ensure appreciation of share value. So my 1 year PT is 270 (or higher) just on this alone
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Elon seems not to be that motivated by money so I'm not sure how much that incentive really plays into things.
There is a Model X by-invitation event at Fremont tonight. A fair chance of some material reassurance going into Friday from this event.
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Very kind of you but no, I am just an entrepreneur / investor.
But I expect that he does want to have as much control over the company as possible.
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