Just one more thing on this score (that bugs the bejezus out of me). GAAP treatment of RVGs basically comes up with a radically different opinion of when a Sale is completed (hence coming up with numbers that present a picture of Tesla buying its own cars and leasing them instead of selling them) and only finally recognizing the car is sold on expiry of the RVG three years later. Bears that state GAAP losses as fact and dismiss non-GAAP as non-FACT (i.e. fiction) and at the same time go on about unit sales numbers like 50,000 is less than some early gidance have no clue what they are talking about. According to GAAP not a single Tesla car with an RVG since March 2013 has actually been Sold yet. If you can accept 50,000+ cars were sold in 2015, then by definition the non-GAAP numbers are correct and the GAAP numbers are simply wrong.
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Just one more thing on this score (that bugs the bejezus out of me). GAAP treatment of RVGs basically comes up with a radically different opinion of when a Sale is completed (hence coming up with numbers that present a picture of Tesla buying its own cars and leasing them instead of selling them) and only finally recognizing the car is sold on expiry of the RVG three years later. Bears that state GAAP losses as fact and dismiss non-GAAP as non-FACT (i.e. fiction) and at the same time go on about unit sales numbers like 50,000 is less than some early gidance have no clue what they are talking about. According to GAAP not a single Tesla car with an RVG since March 2013 has actually been Sold yet. If you can accept 50,000+ cars were sold in 2015, then by definition the non-GAAP numbers are correct and the GAAP numbers are simply wrong.
dreamingof3
Member
I'm sorry Julian but you know too much about GAAP and non gaap to try and lie to me that you aren't an Accountant. :wink: And not just any Accountant, but rather a CFO or director of accounting
Not addressing the issues is a serious fail, is there even a high level person responsible for communications? And supply chain, design and minor production all probably contributing to the stumble out of the gate. Clearly if there was one relatively easy to solve bottleneck that message would be passed along at least to the Sig's with the $40,000 deposits no?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yep. Tesla needs to put cars on boats folks. It's that time in the quarter
There are 2 months left in Q1. If no one is seeing signs of MX production ramp later in the quarter, I'd be worried
Regardless, we will have color on MX production status on call on Feb 10th
in the interim, remember that cars are being put on boats. It's essential
dreamingof3
Member
What the heck of TSLA price action! It looks yesterday LOW won't be the bottom. I have to cut 10% position to leave ammo for deeper low. Hopefully I'm wrong, my cut is done at the bottom.
Edits: TSLA is a high beta stock, on last Thursday and Friday, general market bounced well but TSLA underperformed, so underperformance is usually not a good sign especially when there is no obvious negative news. Will see how TSLA perform on next Monday.
Edits: TSLA is a high beta stock, on last Thursday and Friday, general market bounced well but TSLA underperformed, so underperformance is usually not a good sign especially when there is no obvious negative news. Will see how TSLA perform on next Monday.
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If I were a heavily-invested short, I wouldn't want to see TSLA end Friday on a high note. The $3 climb near opening today must have been frightening, and we know that Monday morning opening can be quite green if people are optimistic, particularly if Friday turned green. Market makers are working in TSLA's favor today, so I think the shorts are the trouble-makers. The last thing shorts want to see is a mini-squeeze prior to Feb 10.
Edit: On the other hand, if I were a market maker and wanted TSLA to close at 197.50 or as close as possible, I might delay my efforts to raise the price until the last hour so as to avoid getting a squeeze going and overshooting the mark.
Edit: On the other hand, if I were a market maker and wanted TSLA to close at 197.50 or as close as possible, I might delay my efforts to raise the price until the last hour so as to avoid getting a squeeze going and overshooting the mark.
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dc_h
Active Member
Model S are going on boats. No evidence that Model X are getting on trucks or boats. They seem to be well below 238 per week. Hopefully for Model 3 they just plan to do Signatures for the first 6 months. If anything happens faster, they'll have plenty of buyers ready.
Without some change in the next week, CalgaryArsenal is going to start looking prescient about 150.
Sept 30, 5 deliveries
Dec 31, ~ 250 deliveries
2016 ~ maybe another 250 deliveries.
There appear to be a few deliveries on the Model X tracker site, but there is either some part shortage, design or production issue holding up deliveries.
Without some change in the next week, CalgaryArsenal is going to start looking prescient about 150.
Sept 30, 5 deliveries
Dec 31, ~ 250 deliveries
2016 ~ maybe another 250 deliveries.
There appear to be a few deliveries on the Model X tracker site, but there is either some part shortage, design or production issue holding up deliveries.
It took 7 months from June 1st, 2012 to December 31st 2012 to deliver 2,650 units. 7 months from September 29th is the end of April. I am extremely confident 2,650 units will be delivered by the end of April and there is no reason to doubt that at this point considering they have delivered at least 500.
Will Tesla be at this?
SAE 2016 Hybrid and Vehicle Technologies Symposium - Events - SAE International
SAE 2016 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Technologies Symposium addresses critical information on both the technical developments in electronic vehicle technologies as well as the business decisions around technology development and implementation. Additionally, it allows for attendees to meet with those industry experts and technology specialists from the entire supply chain of EV, HEV and EREV to engage in dialogue about the topics of greatest interest.
Here, attendees will learn about technology applications of the manufacturers’ hybrid and electric vehicles, powertrain technologies and components, and about supporting technologies — such as advanced energy storage and charging systems.
SAE 2016 Hybrid and Vehicle Technologies Symposium - Events - SAE International
SAE 2016 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Technologies Symposium addresses critical information on both the technical developments in electronic vehicle technologies as well as the business decisions around technology development and implementation. Additionally, it allows for attendees to meet with those industry experts and technology specialists from the entire supply chain of EV, HEV and EREV to engage in dialogue about the topics of greatest interest.
Here, attendees will learn about technology applications of the manufacturers’ hybrid and electric vehicles, powertrain technologies and components, and about supporting technologies — such as advanced energy storage and charging systems.
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Low volume means big hands don't want to buy at this bargain price even with general market rally. So they expect even lower entry point.
Just making sure, that's not what Elon planned for Model X. I think that comparison makes sense if we assume Tesla didn't learn much from the last ramp.
dc_h
Active Member
We are at 4 months and 500 deliveries and appear to have production on hold. I am anxious to share your confidence. Would love to have some data. The knowledge that you have high hopes is not cutting it for me.
I'm looking to be proven wrong, and appreciate many of your past posts and insights.
I'm looking to be proven wrong, and appreciate many of your past posts and insights.
The comparison was because dc_h said the ramp was going worse than the Model S ramp. I don't think we can say that at this point. I'm not saying it is going well. But to dc_h's other point I have no data point to back it up other than the fact that people are happy with the cars that have been delivered.
Crud, we had a nice slope going for 192.50 and it leveled off. Better for me to change the subject ; )
Actually, if the shorts can pull it off, we'd close at 189.98. The tug-of-war is underway.
Edit: Bet on! Come on 192.50!
Could be a photo finish!
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Low volume means big hands are preoccupied with other stocks/sectors today. Also, today is OPEX.
dc_h
Active Member
My take is that Tesla learned about challenges that go wrong for a new car. They designed in a lot of new challenges and should have assumed that they'd get to learn a bunch of new things. Rollouts are rollouts. You may get better, but life gets more complex and the people who worked on the S rollout had nothing else to do. Now you have design teams working on Model 3, engineers working on Model S and day to day urgencies make dropping everything for the new car impossible. Planning for a longer Signature cycle would program time into the process to perfect production, lock in schedules for higher level engineers to continue improving production processes during the first six months.
I'm not there, I don't know what the issues are and it's easy to be an arm chair know it all. Getting signalling that production will start picking up and that the supply chain is working for all parts would likely get the stock back over 200. At this point FCF is going to look tough for Q2, which is going to shrink the FCF window before capex starts for the Model 3 line. That is going to hold down stock valuation and increase the cost (dilution) to go back to the market for more money.
Again, I hope someone slams me with facts. I want to be wrong, or on track to be wrong very soon.
I'm not there, I don't know what the issues are and it's easy to be an arm chair know it all. Getting signalling that production will start picking up and that the supply chain is working for all parts would likely get the stock back over 200. At this point FCF is going to look tough for Q2, which is going to shrink the FCF window before capex starts for the Model 3 line. That is going to hold down stock valuation and increase the cost (dilution) to go back to the market for more money.
Again, I hope someone slams me with facts. I want to be wrong, or on track to be wrong very soon.
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