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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Oops, I made an error. The statement of:
As of September 30, 2015, the market conditions for seven vesting tranches and the following performance milestones were achieved and approved by our Board of Directors:

Was alluding to the fact that the current share price was sitting over 239. So therefore if 7 things had been completed at that point, then they would be able to actually issue all the shares.

As of that report, only 3 things have been actually completed (Model X Alpha, Model X Beta, and Model X Production). They have 7 more left, of which Three are considered probable (M3 Alpha, M3 Beta, and 100k aggregate production). There are 4 others which are as follows:

  • Completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle;
  • Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.

I also pulled the original report, which states that they have 10 years from the date of it being created, so August 2022 is when it would go away. So sorry, it has been a long day and I got things a bit mixed up. Since at this time only 3 things have been achieved (likely the 4th as well, but they haven't compensated him for it yet, so we will have to wait and see) they only need to maintain a 15.2B market cap. In order to pull the trigger on number 4 (the 100k vehicles) it would only require a 19.2B market cap. Which means Elon really wouldn't care about the stock price right now, since even at 192$ we are still well above 19.2B. So I expect they will only work to keep the share price over 146$ up until they compensate him for the milestone. And now I am slightly depressed again... :(
 
As of that report, only 3 things have been actually completed (Model X Alpha, Model X Beta, and Model X Production). They have 7 more left, of which Three are considered probable (M3 Alpha, M3 Beta, and 100k aggregate production). There are 4 others which are as follows:

  • Completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle;
  • Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.

I also pulled the original report, which states that they have 10 years from the date of it being created, so August 2022 is when it would go away.

I think Mr Musk is feeling smug about the year ahead. As he should. Fish are crowding the barrel to be shot at will.

Just one thing, Musk's options have tended to vest when milestones are considered probable. This was true of the Model X production ages before production actually started and would be true of the Model 3 Alpha and Beta prototypes more recently.
 
Low volume means big hands don't want to buy at this bargain price even with general market rally. So they expect even lower entry point.
A day or two ago, I happened to remember something that DaveT wrote (paraphrasing), that TSLA would not drop below a point where institutions would start scooping it up. Maybe they see it falling, and believe it will continue to fall. If so why not wait?

Julian, you said that the GF would be the last time a battery producer allowed a car company to be a partner. I don't believe that Tesla needs Panasonic's expertise to build 18650 Cells. I think Panasonic's participation helps, but I believe that the main thing that Tesla needed-needs is access to capital.
Panasonic also helps them avoid having to forge their own alliances with suppliers and/or figure certain things out on their own. Why reinvent the wheel if you don't need to. Panasonic makes really good batteries. This could only happen if Panasonic's suppliers were also top notch. So why not bring them all under one roof and have them do what they do best? I agree that they could probably do it themselves... but I think it was more than just about access to capital. It would have cost Tesla far more than the 1.8B that Panasonic is bringing to the table since they would have to do a lot of extra R&D work to solve the same problems that Panasonic and its suppliers solved long, long ago. The only reason Tesla would shift this is if they get issues with suppliers (as they have elsewhere) and therefore it becomes more profitable to invest the funding now themselves to bring the product to the table in the timeframe that they need.
Remember that making 18650 cells is very well understood.

This also works in our favor as the ICE manufacturers keep delaying the transition to an EV. They don't currently have the expertise and knowledge to make complex battery systems (e.g. 7k cells being micromanaged) and high performing AC Motors... and other critical power systems that are part of an EV.
I disagree. Elon recently said that the most important Battery Parameter to improve is the Cost, which is clearly the only (or for tftf the main) obstacle standing in the way of EV domination. So Tesla's main advantage in terms of Batteries-EV's is that their Battery pack costs are the lower than any existing other producer of OEM quality Automobile Packs.
 
Correct. The bottom without volume is the not the bottom. Check the volume in last big fall 2015.1-2015.3.
2015.1.14: SP hit 185, strong bounce, volume 11M
2015.2.12: SP hit 193, strong bounce, volume 15M
2015.3.19: SP hit 194, volume 8.4M
2015.3.27: SP hit 181, volume 8.6M
2015.3.30: SP hit 181, volume 10M

Compared to this big fall, we have 10 trading days hit below 200 (mostly last two weeks) and even 182 yesterday, but none of the volume about 8M, average is about 4-5M.


A day or two ago, I happened to remember something that DaveT wrote (paraphrasing), that TSLA would not drop below a point where institutions would start scooping it up. Maybe they see it falling, and believe it will continue to fall. If so why not wait?
 
Regards Tesla Panasonic and the Gigafactory.

Tesla benefits from Panasonic:

1. Putting in years of experience in extreme manufacturing consistency of millions of simple objects in high speed, high yield manufacturing.
2. Arranging the supply and the nuances of design for machines to make can cells for this purpose.
3. All of the other machines and process steps - consistent slurries, coating, calendering, winding, welding etc.
4. Marshaling the subcomponent supply chain. Chemical constituents, can materials, separators etc.
5. Track record of bulk purchasing lending credibility and leverage for negotiating with raw materials suppliers.
6. Maintaining reliable cell supply from Japan in the run-up to the Gigafactory going live and beyond.

The objectives of the Gigafactory:

To reduce reliance on Panasonic's profit center in Japan and have Tesla take over the lead role in automotive and energy storage cell supply at significantly reduced cost than is possible from Panasonic of Japan so as to undercut Panasonic globally and concentrate profits in Tesla.

I do not and never have understood this deal from Panasonic's perspective. This is Musk's version of building a wall and having Mexico pay for it.

This is why Trump and Musk are $billionares and I am not. Everything else about Tesla I feel that I understand. Not this.

The only thing I can see that gives Tesla the leverage not only to do this deal but to get Panasonic to pay for it is by threatening to take its business elsewhere. That's a big threat given the opportunity that Tesla has become to Panasonic but enough for this??? Apparently, I guess.

Why I think this will never happen again: Battery industry to Future EV competitors. "I see you are in desperate need of batteries to stop Tesla walking off with your customer base little GM/BMW/Ford etc etc. First of all you can start by remembering at all times to call me Sir. Now that we have that straight, here is our price list, payment terms and MOQ requirements".
 
A day or two ago, I happened to remember something that DaveT wrote (paraphrasing), that TSLA would not drop below a point where institutions would start scooping it up. Maybe they see it falling, and believe it will continue to fall. If so why not wait?

Institutions are subject to capital flows from the holders. In this case institutions typically mean large mutual funds or ETFs. Think Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, the QQQ, etc. If people are broadly executing sell orders to go to cash these institutions have to redeem the portfolio broadly to meet the demands. They may sell less TSLA proportionally due to the price, but it is very hard for them to buy during a wide pull back.
 
Musk adds huge Tesla Stock Stake Ahead of Earnings

Please see the Investor's Business Daily article here.

What is not surprising is that Elon exercised options and added another half million shares to his holdings. What is noteworthy is that he did not sell some of those shares to pay for the taxes, instead he paid $50 million in cash for the taxes. All of this comes a couple weeks before the ER. Hmm. Sounds bullish to me.
 
Can someone explain to me what Elon Musks SEC filling today means? Did he buy stock?

SEC Filings | Tesla Motors

He used cash to buy more TSLA stock. Since he's already very exposed :), this implies a lot of confidence, since he didn't have to do it yet. Clearly he thinks the current stock price is undervalued. This way the actual shares have a cost basis of today's closing price. He'd have to pay more tax if he did it at some time when the price was higher.

My understanding is that exercising these stock options is not something that is subject to insider trading rules, because it doesn't affect existing shareholders, but I'm not certain of that. Can anyone confirm/deny this?
 
Musk adds huge Tesla Stock Stake Ahead of Earnings

Please see the Investor's Business Daily article here.

What is not surprising is that Elon exercised options and added another half million shares to his holdings. What is noteworthy is that he did not sell some of those shares to pay for the taxes, instead he paid $50 million in cash for the taxes. All of this comes a couple weeks before the ER. Hmm. Sounds bullish to me.
It is bullish if he doesn't sell them. Also, there may be some tax benefits to exercise and hold vs. exercising and selling them later.
 
I think Mr Musk is feeling smug about the year ahead. As he should. Fish are crowding the barrel to be shot at will.

Just one thing, Musk's options have tended to vest when milestones are considered probable. This was true of the Model X production ages before production actually started and would be true of the Model 3 Alpha and Beta prototypes more recently.

Actually, now that I look over this, I am confused yet again. So I am going to break this out by all of them, so hopefully it will make sense to me... here goes (These are in the order they show up on the website, however the dates pulled are the "Date of Earliest Transaction, hence dates get a little mixed up)

1/27/2016 - Option purchase @6.63 of 532,000 shares (original option date looks to be listed at 12/4/2009??? Huh? The CEO Grant was 2012... not 2009? Ok, this is the start of my confusion... see below as I do come to an answer in the end)
8/19/2015 - Stock purchase @242 of 82,645 shares (I believe this was part of the last stock offering that was recently done)
13/9/2013 - Stock purchase @0 of 75 shares (This was also odd, because they were a direct buy, as opposed to indirect through his Elon Musk Trust Fund - either way they are listed as vesting 100% on December 5, 2014)
11/7/2013 - Stock purchase @0 of 1,256 shares (Note on this was: Shares were received... part of the pro-rata distribution by VEP I effected on Nov 7, 2013 - Unsure what VEP I is, maybe someone else knows?)
6/10/2013 - Option Grant @100.05 of 350 shares (There is nothing attached to this, other than an expiration date of 6/10/2023, unsure what this was for)
5/30/2013 - Stock purchase @92.24 of 1,084,129 shares (This was the 2013 stock offering that he took out a loan to buy)
4/8/2013 - Option Grant @41.83 of 350 shares (Also nothing attached to this one, but that is the second one that has a 10 year period tied to it for no reason???)
10/3/2012 - Stock purchase @28.25 of 35,398 shares
8/13/2012 - Option Grant @31.17 of 5,274,901 (This is the CEO Stock Option Grant being talked about. You can see here it expires on 8/13/2022 - It has a note on the "Date Exercisable" that it is only exercisable based on operational and market cap milestones - Also Spell check doesn't like the word "Exercisable"... They need to stop making up words apparently)
3/20/2012 - Stock purchase @0 of 36,274 (This was part of a pro-rata distribution effect by Valor Equity Partners, LP)
2/18/2011 - Stock purchase @28.76 of 1,416,000 (I believe this was the 2011 funding raise they did? I don't recall)
2/18/2011 - Stock purchase @0 of 15,969 (Shares acquired upon distribution from Valor Equity Partners, LP)
6/25/2010 - Option Grant @6.63 of 3,355,986 (I'll come back to this one below, I believe this is related to the next entry as well... which I will talk about both in more detail)
12/4/2009 - Option Grant @6.63 of 838,996 (again, I'll talk about this more down below)
7/2/2010 - This was the conversion of shares when the company went public.

Ok... So, it looks like in 2009 they gave him some performance objectives to meet and it would ensure that he got, what appears to be a total of 3,355,986 shares assuming all milestones are met. It looks like they granted him some of those milestones. The direct line from the relevant Form 4 is as follows:

On December 4, 2009, the reporting person was granted an option to purchase 3,355,986 shares of common stock as reported on a Form 3 filed by the reporting person on June 25, 2010. The option vests in four equal installments based on the Issuer's satisfaction of certain performance objectives set forth in the option agreement. On January 21, 2011, the Board of Directors certified that the first performance objective has been met, resulting in vesting of the option as to 838,996 shares.

So that explains the 838,996 option contract as well as the recent one of 532,000. The dates and more importantly the share prices match up. Also note that the $6.63 price was *before* the company went public, in case anyone was confused about that. This helps with identifying other such investments that are based on pre-IPO option grants. You will notice that there are a bunch of recent filings that line up to similar pricings to other executives.

So this performance milestone was outlined in the 2010 annual report and reads as follows:
Included in our December 4, 2009 stock option grants were 6,711,972 stock options granted to our Chief Executive Officer in two separate grants. In recognition of his and our company’s achievements and to create incentives for future success, our Board of Directors approved an option grant to our Chief Executive Officer representing 4% of our fully-diluted share base prior to such grant as of December 4, 2009, or 3,355,986 stock options, with 1/4th of the shares vesting immediately, and 1/36th of the remaining shares scheduled to vest each month over three years, assuming continued employment through each vesting date. In addition, to create incentives for the attainment of clear performance objectives around a key element of our current business plan—the successful launch and commercialization of the Model S—the Board of Directors approved an additional option grant to our Chief Executive Officer totaling an additional 4% of our fully-diluted shares prior to such grant as of December 4, 2009, or 3,355,986 stock options, with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of performance objectives as follows, assuming Mr. Musk’s continued employment and service to us through each vesting date:
  • 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the successful completion of the Model S Engineering Prototype;
  • 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the successful completion of the Model S Validation Prototype;
  • 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the completion of the first Model S Production Vehicle; and
  • 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the completion of the 10,000th Model S Production Vehicle.


If he does not meet one or more of the above milestones prior to the fourth anniversary of the date of the grant, he will forfeit his right to the unvested portion of the grant.
Due to the significant number of stock options granted to our Chief Executive Officer, we valued these December 2009 grants by using the following grant-specific Black-Scholes assumptions: risk-free interest rate of 1.7%, expected term of 4.1 years, expected volatility of 70% and dividend yield of 0%. Stock-based compensation expense related to Mr. Musk’s grants was $4.7 million and $7.2 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2010.
Included in our June 12, 2010 stock option grants were 666,300 stock options granted to various members of our senior management with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of the same performance objectives as those outlined for Mr. Musk above.

What I am assuming is that he was forced to convert the shares to stock finally since the options expired in December of this year. What I am still scratching my head over is the disparity of the amount purchased verses the amount that should have been granted... Especially since they were given 4 years to meet these goals (December 4, 2013) and they easily beat them (as by the end of 2013 they had delivered over 20,000 vehicles). In either case, we have not seen Elon actually exercise any of the options granted or pending that are from the 2012 CEO grant. These shares purchased recently were based on something that was granted 7 years ago, and met over 3 years ago.

As I am afraid this actually has no real short term impact a mod can feel free to move all of this to another thread if they like. But at least I think I cleared this whole thing up.
 
It is bullish if he doesn't sell them. Also, there may be some tax benefits to exercise and hold vs. exercising and selling them later.

It would be interesting to see what dates were available for Elon to exercise those options. If he had the flexibility of exercising them after the ER, and he thought that TSLA would fall after the ER, he would pay less taxes up front by delaying the purchase. Hope we can determine this detail.
 
The objectives of the Gigafactory:

To reduce reliance on Panasonic's profit center in Japan and have Tesla take over the lead role in automotive and energy storage cell supply at significantly reduced cost than is possible from Panasonic of Japan so as to undercut Panasonic globally and concentrate profits in Tesla.

I do not and never have understood this deal from Panasonic's perspective. This is Musk's version of building a wall and having Mexico pay for it.

I have a few thoughts on this:

First, Panasonic can avoid or at least mitigate currency exchange rate risks by both producing and selling its product in the same currency market (in this case, North America). This is the same reason other Japanese companies with large U.S. markets, like Honda Motor Co., largely manufacture and in some cases also engineer their products in the U.S. I believe that well over 90% of Honda vehicles sold in the U.S. and Canada are built in North America.

Second, it is possible that while Panasonic makes less profit per cell at the Gigafactory than they would make at the Japan factory, the volume of cells is expected to be so much higher that they will come out far ahead. For Panasonic, this opportunity may be akin to what Corning experienced with iPhone and Gorilla Glass. Corning's ion-strengthened product had low volume and few applications prior to 2007. Then iPhone paved the way for touchscreen phone dominance, and demand for Gorilla Glass skyrocketed. Panasonic may be banking on the same effect with EVs. If Tesla really accelerates the transition to BEVs, Panasonic will want to be positioned as a major supplier. Might as well get on board rather than risk ceding the market to LG and Samsung.

Third, building a big factory is a regulatory and planning headache. Maybe land is too expensive and the regulatory burden in Japan is too high. Why not let Tesla deal with the red tape and use cheap land in Nevada?

All of this is my speculation, but it is based on my sense of several industries over 20 years of observation.
 
It would be interesting to see what dates were available for Elon to exercise those options. If he had the flexibility of exercising them after the ER, and he thought that TSLA would fall after the ER, he would pay less taxes up front by delaying the purchase. Hope we can determine this detail.
They were 2009 options and typically expire after 10 years. So, he could have held them a little longer.
 
Musk adds huge Tesla Stock Stake Ahead of Earnings

Please see the Investor's Business Daily article here.

What is not surprising is that Elon exercised options and added another half million shares to his holdings. What is noteworthy is that he did not sell some of those shares to pay for the taxes, instead he paid $50 million in cash for the taxes. All of this comes a couple weeks before the ER. Hmm. Sounds bullish to me.

Well, I suppose all that I did *might* have short term impact since people will think he did something special, when he kinda didn't... lol But hey, if they are going to run with this and it helps boost the share price, I'll take it. It is still a good sign that he is sticking with his commitment to not sell any of his shares (including "freely" given stock options)
 
Elon had un-exercised, vested option for approximately 6.7 million shares under the December, 2009 incentive plan with an exercise price of $6.63/ share. He exercised about 8% of those options recently by paying into Tesla's treasury about $3.5 million ($6.63 x 532,000) The market value of the transaction is approximately $102 million. He must exercise the remaining 6,168,000 options before early December or they will become worthless.
Are you sure it was 6.7 million shares? It looks like 3.4 million to me - is there another source?

From the January 25th Form 4 (Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership)

On December 4, 2009, the reporting person was granted an option to purchase 3,355,986 shares of common stock as reported on a Form 3 filed by the reporting person on June 25, 2010. The option vests in four equal installments based on the Issuer's satisfaction of certain performance objectives set forth in the option agreement. On January 21, 2011, the Board of Directors certified that the first performance objective has been met, resulting in vesting of the option as to 838,996 shares.
 
It would be interesting to see what dates were available for Elon to exercise those options. If he had the flexibility of exercising them after the ER, and he thought that TSLA would fall after the ER, he would pay less taxes up front by delaying the purchase. Hope we can determine this detail.

They were 2009 options and typically expire after 10 years. So, he could have held them a little longer.

I know it was somewhat walls of text, but I did post about this, the options had an expiration date of 2016. The relevant contract came from here:
Tesla Motors - Amended Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership

So they expire on 12/3/2016. He had to buy them, or sell them, not sure he had a lot of wiggle room here when dealing with that much cash.

- - - Updated - - -

Are you sure it was 6.7 million shares? It looks like 3.4 million to me - is there another source?

From the January 25th Form 4 (Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership)

The total as posted above was 6,711,972. half was given to him based on him just being there, 1/4 of that vested immediately, and then the remaining 1/36 over the span of 3 years. The other half of that was based on performance milestones broken into 4 metrics that related to the design and production of the Model S.
 
Regards Tesla Panasonic and the Gigafactory.

Tesla benefits from Panasonic:

1. Putting in years of experience in extreme manufacturing consistency of millions of simple objects in high speed, high yield manufacturing.
2. Arranging the supply and the nuances of design for machines to make can cells for this purpose.
3. All of the other machines and process steps - consistent slurries, coating, calendering, winding, welding etc.
4. Marshaling the subcomponent supply chain. Chemical constituents, can materials, separators etc.
5. Track record of bulk purchasing lending credibility and leverage for negotiating with raw materials suppliers.
6. Maintaining reliable cell supply from Japan in the run-up to the Gigafactory going live and beyond.
It is relatively easy to find expertise in 18650 Cell production. Much easier than almost successfully landing a rocket on a barge with 10 foot waves. I believe that Tesla felt that they needed a large financial commitment from Panasonic.

I was trying to convey that if Tesla had the capital that Apple has, they might have still wanted Panasonic to participate, but they would been much more likely to decide to do it themselves.

Why I think this will never happen again: Battery industry to Future EV competitors. "I see you are in desperate need of batteries to stop Tesla walking off with your customer base little GM/BMW/Ford etc etc. First of all you can start by remembering at all times to call me Sir. Now that we have that straight, here is our price list, payment terms and MOQ requirements".
For future GF's I believe that Tesla will continue to invite Panasonic to participate, but if foot-dragging by Panasonic starts to slow the mission, and Tesla has access to sufficient capital they won't hesitate to do it themselves. Clearly the GF was inspired by Tesla. IMO GM/BMW/Ford etc. all think that Tesla,building their own batteries is crazy, and I don't see any signs that they are even on a path towards acquiring the expertise to build their own GF's.

OTOH if GM or VW offer LG or Samsung a guarantee to purchase 500k 60kWh packs per year, and want a financial interest, I don't think they would be refused. I believe that LG or Samsung might require an investment.
 
What I am assuming is that he was forced to convert the shares to stock finally since the options expired in December of this year. What I am still scratching my head over is the disparity of the amount purchased verses the amount that should have been granted... Especially since they were given 4 years to meet these goals (December 4, 2013) and they easily beat them (as by the end of 2013 they had delivered over 20,000 vehicles). In either case, we have not seen Elon actually exercise any of the options granted or pending that are from the 2012 CEO grant. These shares purchased recently were based on something that was granted 7 years ago, and met over 3 years ago.

As I am afraid this actually has no real short term impact a mod can feel free to move all of this to another thread if they like. But at least I think I cleared this whole thing up.
Wouldn't exercising his options reduce that value of the shares everyone else is holding? Maybe he didn't want that to happen? (Could there be a new stock offering soon an he want so keep his % share in the company and rather get options than buying shares at the point?)

  • Completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle;
  • Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and
  • Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.
This seems absolutely impossible. Aren't the at 25% with just luxury sedans? How is that number supposed to go up with the Model 3?
 
I know it was somewhat walls of text, but I did post about this, the options had an expiration date of 2016. The relevant contract came from here:
Tesla Motors - Amended Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership

So they expire on 12/3/2016. He had to buy them, or sell them, not sure he had a lot of wiggle room here when dealing with that much cash.

- - - Updated - - -



The total as posted above was 6,711,972. half was given to him based on him just being there, 1/4 of that vested immediately, and then the remaining 1/36 over the span of 3 years. The other half of that was based on performance milestones broken into 4 metrics that related to the design and production of the Model S.

Thanks chickensevil, our posts crossed in cyberspace.

That said, Elon is going out of his way to give signals of confidence in Tesla by paying cash for the taxes on his exercised options and by Tweeting that he will be the last to sell shares. Those two activities came within an hour or two of each other, and so one should not suppose coincidence. Now... does this show of confidence mean that the ER is going to be good or not so good? I really can't say because Elon might show his personal confidence in the company if he knew the ER was going to be less than rosy. The fact that he paid $50 Million in cash for the taxes, rather than selling shares, strikes me as bullish, however. Even with billionaires, $50 million is not chump change.
 
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