Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

Yep you are right and @AudubonB suspicion is affirmed. That's a mysterious & intentional move and raises more questions.
I had read those footnotes and interpreted them as reporting on the sub-fund holders, voters and other admin elements of the shares as of those dates, rather than the specific share count. It never hit me they would intentionally report such dated financial material. Addresses and voters, yes. Financial data, no. Thx.....one mystery solved and another one opens.

OK so there is a difference between the sources of ownership reporting. 13G is for stockholders with 5%-20% ownership of the company. This filing is used here in the S-4 and 13G is updated annually and therefore doesn't reflect the most up to date information. The NASDAQ reported ownership that updates quarterly is using 13F, for institution investors with $100M or more under management.

I asked IR why they used 13G instead of 13F and will post back if received an answer.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

That's my post. All I can say was that on my factory tour in July, I was told the work week was Monday 6 am nonstop to Friday 6 pm, with alternating 12 hour shifts. The workers had voted to do it that way.

So if it's 12-hr shifts non-stop, that results in 5 day shifts and 4 night-shifts. 3 teams of 3-shifts?

 

[NikeWings]

OK so there is a difference between the sources of ownership reporting. 13G is for stockholders with 5%-20% ownership of the company. This filing is used here in the S-4 and 13G is updated annually and therefore doesn't reflect the most up to date information. The NASDAQ reported ownership that updates quarterly is using 13F, for institution investors with $100M or more under management.

I asked IR why they used 13G instead of 13F and will post back if received an answer.

The Q/Q chart I posted earlier, pulls from 13Fs, except for Fidelity which was manually added from the S4 disclosure.
Answer will be interesting, thanks for tracking it down.

 

[Lessmog]

Thanks for the link., to the negative full of FUD article.

On the video they said production scheduled to start in Q1 2017, and SCTY told a politician that they would employ about 500 in 2017.

Great news that they plan to start production in Q1 2017!

I think that's what they are already doing. Elon said 500k total MS-MX plus M3 in 2018. But when he talked about the production line he said ultimately five to ten times plants producing a car every 27 seconds. He said that V1 for M3 in Fremont would be V0.5.

One sixth of 5x a car every 27 seconds is under six seconds per car. V0.5 has to be at least one car every 25 seconds. That's 12 per 5 minutes, 144 per hour, 1,728 per 12 hour shift. I think Fremont works 7 12 hour shifts per week, about 48 weeks per year. 7 X 48 X 1,728 = over 580k per year,of only M3!

The reason he didn't say that is probably because at this point nobody would believe it.

Aren't you making the mistake of "how many months does it take nine women to have one baby"?

Six factories will not produce each car faster, only make more cars in total. Also, the 27 seconds is Elon's projected end result at v.3.0, I think. That's why Fremont is v.0.5.

Still, if it puts out say half that, one per minute, that's some 350 per day shift or over 3,000 a week, 150k a year! Not a bad start.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) to Deliver at Least 23,000 Cars in Q3, We Believe

I'm mainly posting thus, not for the total. I have a question, how hard would it be to determine the number of cars assembled in Tilburg?

Is The Country Caller a reliable source? Is there any proof from the past that makes them a reliable source?

 

[MitchJi]

Aren't you making the mistake of "how many months does it take nine women to have one baby"?

Six factories will not produce each car faster, only make more cars in total. Also, the 27 seconds is Elon's projected end result at v.3.0, I think. That's why Fremont is v.0.5.

You are incorrect. He said that the fastest conventional car factories produce one car every 27 seconds and that alien dreadnaut 3.0 would produce cars 5 to 10 times faster. He said that the M3 line at Fremont would reach AD V0.5 in 2017. V0.5 should be able to shave about one sixth of the difference between five times as fast as 27 seconds, (under six seconds) and 27 seconds or 23.5 seconds. I used 25 seconds which is conservative in every way.

Is The Country Caller a reliable source? Is there any proof from the past that makes them a reliable source?

I quoted them because they mentioned Tilburg, which is where all European cars are assembled. I wondered if there is any feasible way to get a court of cars assembled there. Something like shipping or customs records or periodically counting cars in the parking lots or coming off the boats.

 

[Lessmog]

You are incorrect. He said that the fastest conventional car factories produce one car every 27 seconds and that alien dreadnaut 3.0 would produce cars 5 to 10 times faster. He said that the M3 line at Fremont would reach AD V0.5 in 2017. V0.5 should be able to shave about one sixth of the difference between five times as fast as 27 seconds, (under six seconds) and 27 seconds or 23.5 seconds. I used 25 seconds which is conservative in every way.

Yes, I see now that I had missed one word: "... he said ultimately five to ten times plants producing a car every 27 seconds."

 

[kenliles]

Labor Day Weekend celebration of
Good work from Tesla laborers

Tesla moves man with cancer up list to achieve life goal of buying a Model S

 

[winfield100]

True, most may not, but a good enough portion will. Can we get a mall directory posted? All the malls I've been to definitely have a good amount of luxury retailers. I do live in the DC area though.

EDIT: Let's see here: Saks Fifth Ave, Nordstrom, Hudson's Bay, Burberry, Coach, Hugo Boss, Armani Exchange, Michael Kors, Scotch & Soda (!), 7 for All Mankind, Apple, Microsoft, and ton of high end jewelers and other lux stores which I'm not fashionable enough to know about.

Find a Store | CF Chinook Centre

dude, were you at Montgomery Mall (or Tysons Corner Mall) on 3/31 MM had between 300-400 reservers.

 

[NikeWings]

Labor Day Weekend celebration of
Good work from Tesla laborers

Tesla moves man with cancer up list to achieve life goal of buying a Model S

He had a thread going about his ordering experience back in April or so. He posted about his cancer and his many misfortunes as wel. At the time, new MSs were 6 week turnarounds and his was under 4. It was quite impressive how quickly Tesla accelerated him thru the queue and the compassion shown to his family.

 

[FredTMC]

Is The Country Caller a reliable source? Is there any proof from the past that makes them a reliable source?

It's a tiny operation. I think it's a single person.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

It's a tiny operation. I think it's a single person.

Thanks for your reply.
Do you think it is a well informed person?
Or is it just someone seeking clicks by writing about TM?

 

[30seconds]

Most mall walkers may not have funds to afford it. But sure, they will gawk. Wealthy people, for the most part, don't shop at the mall. To expensive. Wealthy people are so due to not spending much money.

Going to depend on the mall. Come to Fashion Island in Newport, South Coast Plaza (no store), corte madera or short hills and take a look at the high end cars in the parking lots. Maybe all not "wealthy" but plenty of $75,000-$100,000 cars there.

 

[MitchJi]

Yes, I see now that I had missed one word: "... he said ultimately five to ten times plants producing a car every 27 seconds."

Thanks.

My original point was that that's way more than 500k combined MS-MX and M3.

Another thing to consider is the impact on the SP of a production line spitting out an M3 every 25 seconds.

It will also be interesting to see how much impact that is has on the MS-MX line. I'm pretty sure that that's part of the reason for Tesla's guidance of 2400 MS-MX per week, without any major upgrades.

 

[EinSV]

Thanks for your reply.
Do you think it is a well informed person?
Or is it just someone seeking clicks by writing about TM?

It is someone who thinks that: 3125+2150=5125.

I understood Mitch was just referring to the article to raise the Tilburg question, not as a reliable source for the numbers.

"Model S

The US best-selling luxury car of 2015, Model S, was sold the most in the country last month. The estimated deliveries were 3,125 for August and 2,150 for July. Tesla delivered 5,125 sedans in the first two months of the quarter. The numbers show quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) increase of 163%."

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks for your reply.
Do you think it is a well informed person?
Or is it just someone seeking clicks by writing about TM?

I think their model is based on clicks (ads).

 

[FredLambert]

Thanks for your reply.
Do you think it is a well informed person?
Or is it just someone seeking clicks by writing about TM?

It's neither a single person operation nor a well-informed source. It's a website that pays $5 a pop for copy editors in India to rewrites articles about companies listed on the stock market. Then they pay google for their articles to show up on the Google Finance newsfeed of these stocks. Over half of "their" TSLA articles are rewrites of electrek.

Look at just the past few days:

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Opens its First 20-Stall Supercharger in Nebbenes, Norway

"Electrek reported" then they change a few words in the article.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Head Of Data Science Jumps Ship For Emerging Local Rival

"according to Electrek"

They never link back to the original report. They are a plague and the publishing industry and make it harder for anyone actually doing any real reporting work...

 

[madodel]

It's neither a single person operation nor a well-informed source. It's a website that pays $5 a pop for copy editors in India to rewrites articles about companies listed on the stock market. Then they pay google for their articles to show up on the Google Finance newsfeed of these stocks. Over half of "their" TSLA articles are rewrites of electrek.

Look at just the past few days:

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Opens its First 20-Stall Supercharger in Nebbenes, Norway

"Electrek reported" then they change a few words in the article.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Head Of Data Science Jumps Ship For Emerging Local Rival

"according to Electrek"

They never link back to the original report. They are a plague and the publishing industry and make it harder for anyone actually doing any real reporting work...

And the site is so bad the few times I was lured there it locked up Chrome. It is so poorly written that I had trouble reading what I could before my browser locked up. Between this and SA, it made me check links here and on Google Finance before clicking on them.

 

[neroden]

How is this "bad" for Tesla or Solar City shareholders?

Factory jobs cut by 2/3 because of automation. Labor cost cut by 2/3. Production and revenue is the same.

I can see some New York taxpayers upset.

Subtle and clever change in the contract. According to the article:
-- It formerly said 1440 supply chain jobs in the state.
-- It now says 2000 jobs (of any sort) within the state within 5 years, 5000 within 10 years, 1460 in Buffalo.

If the merger goes through (I hope it does), and if the article is correct, these jobs can probably be, for example, Tesla service center jobs.
I should check the original SEC filing.

 

[TMSE]

Subtle and clever change in the contract. According to the article:
-- It formerly said 1440 supply chain jobs in the state.
-- It now says 2000 jobs (of any sort) within the state within 5 years, 5000 within 10 years, 1460 in Buffalo.

If the merger goes through (I hope it does), and if the article is correct, these jobs can probably be, for example, Tesla service center jobs.
I should check the original SEC filing.

Is the Buffalo plant mostly funded by the NY state? How much is their commitment? How much is the spending so far/ commitment by SolarCity?

I don't think we are properly accounting for the value of this plant and associated leases into the SolarCity valuation.