Was 8% last quarter, but they are guiding for 15%. So that would be 7500 cars in 2016 H2. Also, the agreement is for 24 months while Tesla customary leases are for 36 months. Maybe they plan on running more 24 month lease promotions since they were quite the hit. Obviously Tesla only needs to lend for the cost of goods, at around 60k/car which would make this agreement good for around 5000 cars. And every month another 50 or so on top until next year (provided Tesla uses the incoming lease cash to fund new cars instead of paying down the loan) . The interest seems comparable to the ABL (which is 1.65%+LIBOR). Anyway, funding like this is certainly good news but hopefully Tesla is able to sign up more banking partners to make it impressive.
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Was 8% last quarter, but they are guiding for 15%. So that would be 7500 cars in 2016 H2. Also, the agreement is for 24 months while Tesla customary leases are for 36 months. Maybe they plan on running more 24 month lease promotions since they were quite the hit. Obviously Tesla only needs to lend for the cost of goods, at around 60k/car which would make this agreement good for around 5000 cars. And every month another 50 or so on top until next year (provided Tesla uses the incoming lease cash to fund new cars instead of paying down the loan) . The interest seems comparable to the ABL (which is 1.65%+LIBOR). Anyway, funding like this is certainly good news but hopefully Tesla is able to sign up more banking partners to make it impressive.
Anything can be done, but given Elon Musks well documented aversion against the traditional sales experience I can see how he'd also like to control the leasing experience as much as possible. That's the glass half full explanation. The glass half empty explanation is that they 1) have a huge liability on cars with the Resale Value Guarantee and must control all aspects of the value of two-three year old cars as tightly as possible 2) they need to sell inventory to make the numbers and can only do it by setting residual values a lot higher than other parties would do.
I would be happy to bet you many dollars that if you bought Tesla today at 200 then waited about 60-90 days and sold you would make around 30 or more per share. Plenty of ways to make good money in TSLA other than just holding.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Picked up a small position in SCTY $18.20 today at the equivalent of $165 a Tesla share. Almost a 20% discount.
Large arbitrage discount too hard to resist to average down slightly. If the deal does not go through...could end up worthless.
Large arbitrage discount too hard to resist to average down slightly. If the deal does not go through...could end up worthless.
SolarCity's 45 day 'Go shop' period ends on September 14th, exactly one week from now. Tesla has already filed S-4 vetted by some of the best law firms to do this type of job. SEC would not comment or ask for any further clarification until 14th.
Given this background, is Tesla required to disclose back-and-forth conversation with SEC? is there any specific form towards that end? Or, should we expect a series of amended S-4s?
Given this background, is Tesla required to disclose back-and-forth conversation with SEC? is there any specific form towards that end? Or, should we expect a series of amended S-4s?
I respectfully disagree, I think if the merger was stopped TSLA would jump up significantly.
If for some reason the deal is not approved, I wouldn't be surprised if Elon with the help of a few others take SolarCity private. It appears clear to me that retail investors and analysts who are not accustomed to analyzing atypical business models, or who are being told to sit on the sidelines, aren't able or willing to apply a fair value to SolarCity.
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Unlike almost all other merger/acquisition deals, this deal had a preannouncement, much earlier than the formal deal announcement on August 1st. Both tesla and SolarCity institutional investors had ample time to discuss with the mgmt and decide on. There would have been no formal announcement on August 1st, if Elon had the slightest doubt whether the deal would go through.
I am more confident of this deal going through than any other deal I have ever come across.
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I am also of the mind that the merger seems like a sure thing. Do you have any speculation on why the market is discounting it so greatly?
hard to keep up with this thread, but I assume Wozniak comments on the Bolt have been shared here.
couple of things to bear in mind,
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak says Tesla is biggest disruptor
couple of things to bear in mind,
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak says Tesla is biggest disruptor
larmor
Active Member
The market is remains unimpressed with revenue or potential revenue from a solar model. Probably looking for significant decreased costs for market to understand solar.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
tesla gets $300 million credit line from Deutsche bank
sounds bullish to me!
sounds bullish to me!
Just read this garbage snippet from SA. The post sounds coherent, until you realize that Dutch authorities (what authorities?) investigating the matter simply means the police (authorities?) are investigating (collecting information) about what the heck happened.
Also, it sounds to me like the firefighters weren't trained to handle an EV fire. This sounds like a problem with the fire department, not with Tesla.
Also, the comments from the police and Tesla only confirm that 1) An accident happened, 2) The battery caught on fire, 3) The fire department wasn't sufficiently trained on how to put out an EV fire.
An accident being investigated does not mean the Dutch authorities are investigating Autopilot. Neither the authorities or Tesla have said if Autopilot was active, and even if it was active there is no evidenc to suggest the Autopilot malfunctioned. All the bloggers and BS journalists saying otherwise are drawing baseless inferences.
Also, it sounds to me like the firefighters weren't trained to handle an EV fire. This sounds like a problem with the fire department, not with Tesla.
Also, the comments from the police and Tesla only confirm that 1) An accident happened, 2) The battery caught on fire, 3) The fire department wasn't sufficiently trained on how to put out an EV fire.
An accident being investigated does not mean the Dutch authorities are investigating Autopilot. Neither the authorities or Tesla have said if Autopilot was active, and even if it was active there is no evidenc to suggest the Autopilot malfunctioned. All the bloggers and BS journalists saying otherwise are drawing baseless inferences.
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Look no further than Seeking Alpha and the frothing-at-the-mouth bears over there. The general sentiment is extremely pessimistic right now. Moreover, some prominent hedge funds are short SCTY big time, and they are leaving no stone unturned. All that effort would prove futile in the end. Even if they scare off all the retail investors, Tesla and SolarCity have enough votes to get this deal through.
I expect even more FUD all the way through earnings release in November and the deal vote a few weeks later. And then, you will see SCTY tracking TSLA in locksteps. Eventually, the market gets it right. Until then, enjoy the show.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
seeking alpha is the single worst financial site i have ever wasted my time on
with a few exceptions most articles are totally short oriented junk
i rarely go there anymore
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And I agree with them. Fundamentally the model will not work. I live in a large city in which one in four residential dwellings have solar power. The market quickly works out what works and what doesnt. The global mega-company installation provider is far too fat and bloated for solar panel installations.
It takes a stupidly large sum of money (upfront and ongoing) to develop the capacity to install solar panels across all markets. You are far better off getting local contractors to do the work. They are lean and hungry for the work and will work razor sharp margins and deliver outstanding service to get and maintain contracts from the panel distributors/manufacturers.
You have 14,000 solar panel installation companies in the US. Don't fight them, work with them! let them sell and install the panels. Let them spruik the benefits.
Right now in Australia we have a significant number of solar installer companies advertising Tesla Powerwalls, and installing them. This exposure will disappear overnight if Tesla brings SolarCity in as the sole provider. Those same companies in a matter of hours instead of being Tesla's friend will slam Tesla's model and will compete with alternative suppliers.
I also think packaging solar and battery storage with Model 3 will do more harm and good, it will cause sticker shock, with a $40,000 car suddenly having a $60,000 price tag - sure people will realise they can buy the car without the solar/storage package but the damage will be done. I have seen it over and over with offering complex and major choices does scare away buyers.
The original 40kwh S was a failure, the much promoted battery swap station died and eventually I think we will see the same withdrawal from the market with Tesla installing solar panels.
And I agree with them. Fundamentally the model will not work. I live in a large city in which one in four residential dwellings have solar power. The market quickly works out what works and what doesnt. The global mega-company installation provider is far too fat and bloated for solar panel installations.
It takes a stupidly large sum of money (upfront and ongoing) to develop the capacity to install solar panels across all markets. You are far better off getting local contractors to do the work. They are lean and hungry for the work and will work razor sharp margins and deliver outstanding service to get and maintain contracts from the panel distributors/manufacturers.
You have 14,000 solar panel installation companies in the US. Don't fight them, work with them! let them sell and install the panels. Let them spruik the benefits.
Right now in Australia we have a significant number of solar installer companies advertising Tesla Powerwalls, and installing them. This exposure will disappear overnight if Tesla brings SolarCity in as the sole provider. Those same companies in a matter of hours instead of being Tesla's friend will slam Tesla's model and will compete with alternative suppliers.
I also think packaging solar and battery storage with Model 3 will do more harm and good, it will cause sticker shock, with a $40,000 car suddenly having a $60,000 price tag - sure people will realise they can buy the car without the solar/storage package but the damage will be done. I have seen it over and over with offering complex and major choices does scare away buyers.
The original 40kwh S was a failure, the much promoted battery swap station died and eventually I think we will see the same withdrawal from the market with Tesla installing solar panels.
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3Victoria
Active Member
good points but We do not know if any of them will apply. I doubt they will try to sell the whole package up front, they will realize your sticker-shock point.
I believe it would be seen as a "vote of no confidence" in Elon Musk, which would trigger panic selling in the short term. (This is true even if it would be good for the stock in a longer timeframe.)
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