Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[3Victoria]

hold on... you actually believe this? it's one thing to be an optimist... it's another to be slapped in the face with a completely likely negative scenario and blindly accept it.

1. If you are a Tesla investor and don't like the SCTY deal then you can sell your long or buy short to excercise your opinion.
2. Why are you hear repeatedly arguing a non-issue?
3. The number of people stirring the pot with rather weak arguments seems to have increased recently ... any relation to the pending record date, vote, and quarter results?

 

[brian45011]

I wouldn't take much from that.

Reporter: "Mr. institution, would you prefer to have more speculative inside information before investing in a company or less?"

Institution: "More."

Not an institution here, but yes I would, particularly if the CEO has a large interest in the target and if the undisclosed transaction materially changes the whole risk profile of the company I was risking more capital in. Sorry. I'm disillusioned by this sordid stain on transparency and informed investing.

 

[BornToFly]

Well its material to me as I wouldnt touch SCTY with a 10 foot pole... I'm sure that doesnt mean it meets any disclosure threshold though

Plenty of opportunities to sell TSLA shares after the disclosure if you didn't like it. I had to sell a few hundred shares to raise money for a real estate deal. Sold between 230 and 234 around the end of July. Now I'm trying to buy them back.

 

[esk8mw]

Not an institution here, but yes I would, particularly if the CEO has a large interest in the target and if the undisclosed transaction materially changes the whole risk profile of the company I was risking more capital in. Sorry. I'm disillusioned by this sordid stain on transparency and informed investing.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion as I respect your postings but I'll try one more way. I work with one company that is a highly selective acquiror. It runs through 40-50+ deals through various stages of diligence for every one deal it ultimately closes. These deals die in various ways - initial talks, internal discussions, Board tabling discussions, etc.

Should this public company issue 49 press releases and 8-Ks? Every time it considers and rejects a deal? Nevermind the administrative burden; do you think this would be good for markets?

Companies will tend to make controversial decisions. Investors need not be informed of every potential decision - just the ones that progress to an actual approved offer. Those not in favor of the deal terms, once disclosed, should vote against or sell shares.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

1. If you are a Tesla investor and don't like the SCTY deal then you can sell your long or buy short to excercise your opinion.
2. Why are you hear repeatedly arguing a non-issue?
3. The number of people stirring the pot with rather weak arguments seems to have increased recently ... any relation to the pending record date, vote, and quarter results?

#1 is false option. Selling stock because you don't like something _after_ stock takes a beating isn't really appealing option.
Voting down deal is way more appealing to me. I know my vote doesn't count, but I'll do what I can.
And I don't believe 'No' would be seen as lack of confidence in Elon. He's not elected government, and world is not black and white. I don't like SCTY idea, but it doesn't prevent me from seeing Elon for certifiable genius that he is. Summary of my position: No to SCTY, Yes to everything else Elon...

 

[pGo]

I wouldn't take much from that.

Reporter: "Mr. institution, would you prefer to have more speculative inside information before investing in a company or less?"

Institution: "More."

So I understand that you cheer the biggest institutional investor in favor of the deal but won't take much from a cautious tale from 2nd biggest. I thought you were not biased.

 

[3Victoria]

#1 is false option. Selling stock because you don't like something _after_ stock takes a beating isn't really appealing option.

Nah. TESLA didn't take a beating! You could have sold your position though most of July and August without loss.

 

[madodel]

The bias in the Financial articles on Tesla continues to be staggering. No mention of the recent data that shows how much better Tesla vehicles retain their value compared to ICE cars from Mercedes and others. Also a FUD article on Forbes saying that Tesla has 1/10th the number of chargers that are available to Chevy Bolt and others. Never mind that Tesla drivers can use Chargepoint charges too. The reason Superchargers were needed is because Chargepoint chargers are SLOW, are not along Interstates, and often don't work. Who Has The World's Biggest EV Charging Network? Trigger Warning: It Ain't Tesla

Idiots.

Just wow. What a paid shill for GM or whoever he is working for here. "The history of auto-making is littered with failed car companies. The few that exist did not survive by taking big risks. They already have access to bigger charging networks and battery factories. Sometimes, they wish to be able to afford a bigger mouth, though." Hopefully Elon puts this clown's picture up in every Tesla store with "No test ride/ no sale for you!"

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Nah. TESLA didn't take a beating! You could have sold your position though most of July and August without loss.

No, I couldn't. You assume I was fine with $230. I need much higher price than that to recover...

 

[brian45011]

[.[/QUOTE]

I work with one company that is a highly selective acquiror. It runs through 40-50+ deals through various stages of diligence for every one deal it ultimately closes. These deals die in various ways - initial talks, internal discussions, Board tabling discussions, etc.


Companies will tend to make controversial decisions. Investors need not be informed of every potential decision - just the ones that progress to an actual approved offer.



Those not in favor of the deal terms, once disclosed, should vote against or sell shares.

/QUOTE]

Did you "acquiror" look at buying SCTY? What was disclosed to them in the document room?

How many of those targets had CEO's with an obvious conflict in proposing the transaction?

I sold in late June and continue to resent the loss

 

[stealthology]

Baillie Gifford in June said they were not necessarily opposed to the deal.

The next month, in July, Musk said he expects a supermajority in favor. He said he's been talking with the largest shareholders and said the most informed investors were highly supportive. "As of last week, I have yet to talk to an investor after I have fully explained the situation and not had them support it”.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk Expects SolarCity Acquisition Vote to Pass by Two-Thirds Majority

On a lighter note, here's some eye candy of Fremont via drone on Sept 10. Interesting to see all the cars ready to be shipped:
Beautiful new aerial look at Tesla Fremont – lots of cars ready to ship off [Video]

 

[Fallenone]

Baillie Gifford in June said they were not necessarily opposed to the deal.

The next month, in July, Musk said he expects a supermajority in favor. He said he's been talking with the largest shareholders and said the most informed investors were highly supportive. "As of last week, I have yet to talk to an investor after I have fully explained the situation and not had them support it”.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk Expects SolarCity Acquisition Vote to Pass by Two-Thirds Majority

On a lighter note, here's some eye candy of Fremont via drone on Sept 10. Interesting to see all the cars ready to be shipped:
Beautiful new aerial look at Tesla Fremont – lots of cars ready to ship off [Video]

Bear: look at all those cars nobody wants, Tesla is doomed!

 

[3Victoria]

No, I couldn't. You assume I was fine with $230. I need much higher price than that to recover...

Then you will really be pissed over the next while. Should have held.

 

[neroden]

#1 is false option. Selling stock because you don't like something _after_ stock takes a beating isn't really appealing option.
Voting down deal is way more appealing to me. I know my vote doesn't count, but I'll do what I can.
And I don't believe 'No' would be seen as lack of confidence in Elon.

You are wrong about this. I have 30 years watching stock markets to base this on. Whenever a management-backed deal is voted down, it is seen as lack of confidence in the management. Period. 100% of the time.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Then you will really be pissed over the next while. Should have held.

Did you read any of my posts?
Of course I'm holding...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

You are wrong about this. I have 30 years watching stock markets to base this on. Whenever a management-backed deal is voted down, it is seen as lack of confidence in the management. Period. 100% of the time.

That too shell pass.
Elon likes playing on ragged edge - he'll survive if he loses vote, and market will forget it 30 days after it's done. How's this different from series of other setbacks? As long as big boys vote 'no', but keep holding shares, no biggie, which is exactly what I will be doing.

Elon got kicked out from Paypal and yet, he found wisdom and courage to continue supporting new management. He surely will be grown up enough to understand simple 'no' vote.

 

[maoing]

If TSLA get hammered hard due to "no" vote on SCTY deal, that's perfect buying opportunity before M3 production.
First, the confidence crisis on Elon Musk and Tesla management team is short term, it's be easily forgotten;
Second, in the long run, TSLA will grow much healthier than merging with SCTY, it shrugs off a lot of uncertainties which pushes SP below 200 at this point.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well if you consider the fact that EM talked with his cousins and the TSLA board in Feb about the merger, but never mentioned about this until the recent S-4, I doubt everyone feels OK with this and trust him as before.

Oh, stop. We have no idea what was said. For all we know it might have been one of those hot tub moments. I'm sure a lot of things are discussed by both boards with no predetermined outcome. So they tossed around the idea a while back, but shelved it for whatever reason/s. Then things changed and it got pulled down and executed.

 

[TrendTrader007]

It seems that short sellers are going to loose big way, but they are in serious denial and are simply running the clock.

• There is near certainty that Q3 will be non-GAAP profitable, and is likely also be GAAP profitable AND cash flow positive, which will be a major event. This was essentially telegraphed by the Company but is being ignored.
• Tesla / SolarCity have the votes for the merger. It seems that the common wisdom among the short sellers is that the merger will fall through and Elon will have an egg on his face.
• Institutions are recalling massive amount of shares to vote on the merger. It seems that short sellers dragging their feet in covering. It is not clear what they are counting on. Sudden collapse of SP? That they somehow can avoid covering? The major issue for them is that Tesla is in control of the record date, and will move the date as required in order to overcome any procedural issues, if that is the calculation that short sellers are making.

The combination of the merger, recall and blow-out Q3, packed within the span of several weeks, is virtually guaranteed to cause massive run-up in the SP, postponing the inevitable does not seem to be smart, as they are setting themselves for the RUD (Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly, to borrow the term from Elon)

I totally agree. Based on my read of the technicals this is setting up to be a perfect storm for the short sellers
Notice how TSLA SP has held up very nicely in a tight range bound pattern going back to 2014 despite a sea of negativity on all fronts. To my eyes, TSLA chart is basically coiling up like a tight spring on long term charts and any major positive catalyst will set off the mother of all rallies that will annihilate the shorts
Let the games begin

 

[TrendTrader007]

You are wrong about this. I have 30 years watching stock markets to base this on. Whenever a management-backed deal is voted down, it is seen as lack of confidence in the management. Period. 100% of the time.

I fail to understand why on earth anyone who believes in Elon's vision not vote for merger
I am just a small time investor yet I own thousands of TSLA shares and I will vote in favor of merger (not that my vote will make a difference). Why on earth would the large institutional investors who totally believe in what Elon is trying to accomplish would vote against a merger is beyond me
Yes, voting in favor of merger is a direct sign of confidence in Elon and vice versa