Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

You guys are really paranoid if you think all these other companies are playing unfairly against Tesla. Oh, never mind, I just came across this story:
Tesla is suing oil Industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA technically speaking, it is darkest before the dawn
especially true for stock charts

i am comparing TSLA chart to several other stocks that looked like they were on life support just BEFORE they made huge moves:

example #1 NFLX in January 2015, on January 15, 2015 NFLX stock looked terrible at $ 46.27. it was trading at $ 129.29 just 7 months later on 8-5-15. it tripled in less than 7 months

#2 AMZN looked absolutely terrible at $289.44 on 1-20-15 and not so terrible on 1-29-15 at $696 which was up 340 % in less than a year

think this could never happen to TSLA
think again

just for fun ( to give shorts nightmares)
if TSLA behaves like AMZN it could be $472 stock in less than a year
if like NFLX it could be $ 549
think i am crazy?
well if i am then i love being a crazy multi-millionaire

 

[tinm]

The whole "Dislike" thing has gotten so boring in this thread that to bring some levity to the proceedings, I now pronounce it like Hodor would if Hodor said "Dislike" instead of always saying "Hodor."

And now I challenge you to ever look at the word "Dislike" in this forum and never not mentally pronounce it as if Hodor was speaking it.

 

[FluxCap]

You guys are really paranoid if you think all these other companies are playing unfairly against Tesla. Oh, never mind, I just came across this story:
Tesla is suing oil Industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

Wow. This further validates the attacks on Henry Ford comparison someone made earlier - but I bet old Henry didn't have to contend with a well-funded horse and buggy maker lobby.

 

[SteveG3]

You are wrong about this. I have 30 years watching stock markets to base this on. Whenever a management-backed deal is voted down, it is seen as lack of confidence in the management. Period. 100% of the time.

if there is no deal, I'm quite confident some in the media will pull several muscles trying to portray that as what is happening. that said, what percentage of Tesla investors do you think would like Elon Musk to step down as CEO of Tesla? do you think that percentage would change meaningfully depending on whether the SCTY deal happens or not?

 

[TrendTrader007]

and before i go to bed, just for fun, and to really stick it to the shorts and their spokespersons like "i shorted Enron and now i am shorting Tesla so Tesla must be Enron" Chanos:

Elon is on record stating that eventually (like 10 to 20 years, i am guessing) TSLA could be a $1 Trillion market cap company
which means a SP of $ 6712

now shorts must think that i am certifiably crazy!

(guess my profession)
lol

 

[TrendTrader007]

if there is no deal, I'm quite confident some in the media will pull several muscles trying to portray that as what is happening. that said, what percentage of Tesla investors do you think would like Elon Musk to step down as CEO of Tesla? do you think that percentage would change meaningfully depending on whether the SCTY deal happens or not?

elon Musk stepping down from Tesla!!!
dude! ain't gonna happen in a million years
like Steve Jobs stepping down from AAPL
or Mark Z from Facebook
anyone who even entertains the remotest doubt about Elon not being Tesla CEO needs to sell their stock and buy old GM or F or ATT or GE or whatever lousy company they can find

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon is on record stating that eventually (like 10 to 20 years, i am guessing) TSLA could be a $1 Trillion market cap company which means a SP of $ 6712

So I only need ~150 shares and some time to become a millionaire? cool!

 

[SteveG3]

elon Musk stepping down from Tesla!!!
dude! ain't gonna happen in a million years
like Steve Jobs stepping down from AAPL
or Mark Z from Facebook
anyone who even entertains the remotest doubt about Elon not being Tesla CEO needs to sell their stock and buy old GM or F or ATT or GE or whatever lousy company they can find

lols, I guess my post was not as clear as it could have been. that was my way of trying to nicely point out how doubtful I think there will be any real "lack of confidence" result no matter what happens with the merger, no matter what neroden may have observed over time with other companies. again, I don't doubt that much of the media will try to portray it as such.

 

[GBleck]

So some CFO at an oil pipeline services company tried to spear phish tesla's cfo with a fake yahoo account and an interesting attempt at an em impersonation.

Tesla is suing oil industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

So does this guy not know about federal wire fraud or California's Anti-phishing act of 2005? Tesla is suing for damages related to investigation but I would be surprised if this doesn't get a criminal investigation and maybe the sec?

PS. Anyone have q3 internal delivery projections? Asking for a friend.

 

[MikeC]

You guys are really paranoid if you think all these other companies are playing unfairly against Tesla. Oh, never mind, I just came across this story:
Tesla is suing oil Industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

I'm curious what an oil industry consultant would actually have done if he got the Q3 delivery numbers...would he advise the oil companies to go long TSLA if they were good?

 

[RedX]

I'm curious what an oil industry consultant would actually have done if he got the Q3 delivery numbers...would he advise the oil companies to go long TSLA if they were good?

In the long run,Tesla is winner. In fact I would bet 500% gain in next 10 years

 

[RedX]

lols, I guess my post was not as clear as it could have been. that was my way of trying to nicely point out how doubtful I think there will be any real "lack of confidence" result no matter what happens with the merger, no matter what neroden may have observed over time with other companies. again, I don't doubt that much of the media will try to portray it as such.

Tesla is not just about cars, Tesla is trying to create its own ecosystem and extreme loyal customer base. It's the beginning but path looks bright and well designed. Tesla cars along with PowerWall /Solar Panel offer a complete solution for a different lifestyle. It's a gradual process but it's looks promising. By the way I booked Model X P100D got my VIN AWAITING Delivery.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Before Feb this year? Source?

And did he discussed with all institutional holders?

The idea of the merger can't be a surprise to any long term TSLA investor who did their due diligence.

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal:

"He had not disclosed the deal, he said, but over the years, "this idea has been bandied about with some of our largest shareholders, institutional shareholders. Yeah, there have been discussions."

The manager of the second largest mutual fund investor in Tesla, the $12 billion Fidelity OTC Portfolio, which is also the largest institutional holder of SolarCity, praised a tie-up in comments earlier this year.

"We remain fans not just of Tesla products, but of the concepts and potential future partnerships behind the company. We foresee fruitful synergies between say, Tesla and SolarCity – or any company that can benefit from superior battery technology," Gavin Baker, who runs the Fidelity OTC fund, said in his first-quarter commentary for investors. It owns 2.1 percent of shares.

Overall, 45 percent of Tesla shareholders also hold SolarCity stock, a person familiar with the matter said."

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

"So, in short, the master plan is:

1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Don't tell anyone."

 

[SteveG3]

I'm curious what an oil industry consultant would actually have done if he got the Q3 delivery numbers...would he advise the oil companies to go long TSLA if they were good?

for years I've actually wondered if a large part of the short position in Tesla, which almost always is at least 20%, is simply part of big oil's marketing budget. they know they will pay out here, but it's designed to enhance overall profits by slowing Tesla down. losing $5 billion in a Tesla short position over the past 3 years is peanuts compared to the profits to be generated if widespread EV adoption is slowed down by even a few years.

obviously speculation, but it would also fit with them tanking SCTY heavily the past few weeks to try to make it look like the smart money does not thing the deal will go through with the huge arbitrage gap.

if my speculative theory has any merit, this could be big oil fishing as to whether this will be a particularly painful few months to stay as heavily invested in their anti-Tesla marketing, or whether to just keep such a hypothetical short position intact.

 

[Fallenone]

That too shell pass.
Elon likes playing on ragged edge - he'll survive if he loses vote, and market will forget it 30 days after it's done. How's this different from series of other setbacks? As long as big boys vote 'no', but keep holding shares, no biggie, which is exactly what I will be doing.

Elon got kicked out from Paypal and yet, he found wisdom and courage to continue supporting new management. He surely will be grown up enough to understand simple 'no' vote.

The idea of the merger can't be a surprise to any long term TSLA investor who did their due diligence.

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal:

"He had not disclosed the deal, he said, but over the years, "this idea has been bandied about with some of our largest shareholders, institutional shareholders. Yeah, there have been discussions."

The manager of the second largest mutual fund investor in Tesla, the $12 billion Fidelity OTC Portfolio, which is also the largest institutional holder of SolarCity, praised a tie-up in comments earlier this year.

"We remain fans not just of Tesla products, but of the concepts and potential future partnerships behind the company. We foresee fruitful synergies between say, Tesla and SolarCity – or any company that can benefit from superior battery technology," Gavin Baker, who runs the Fidelity OTC fund, said in his first-quarter commentary for investors. It owns 2.1 percent of shares.

Overall, 45 percent of Tesla shareholders also hold SolarCity stock, a person familiar with the matter said."

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

"So, in short, the master plan is:

1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Don't tell anyone."

Oh really? Why I have the impression that all of the people here was caught by surprise in June? None of us are long term investors or none of us did our DD? I mean if we're talking about years in the future, yeh, I think a lot less was surprised. But it was proposed in June, not years later.

"some of our largest shareholders" may not include some other largest shareholders who may feel bad about how this merger was done.

And the SMP2 have no relevance in this discussion. My point is some institution holders may get upset after reading the S-4 knowing EM had this idea way back in January AND did not disclose anything during the secondary. SMP2's time is after the merger announcement.

 

[BobSk]

I sense shorts really hate the Tesla/SolarCity merger. Those websites used to bash Tesla non stop now saying buying SolarCity is a terrible idea. Chanos yesterday said "after buying SolarCity, Tesla will turn into a "walking insolvency". Clearly he wants to persuade the shareholders to vote No. That puzzles me. Chanos said he has short position on both Tesla and SolarCity. From his perspective, isn't it great for the two companies to turn into a "walking insolvency"?

I like to play chess, it's fun to think why the opponent makes certain moves. Chanos's showed he hates the merger. I have to think why he hates it? I remember Elon said the merger will put Tesla on the path to become a trillion dollar company. Maybe Chanos is worried the master plan 2 will gradually materialize after the merger? I am going to vote "Yes" from both sides.

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla is not just about cars, Tesla is trying to create its own ecosystem and extreme loyal customer base. It's the beginning but path looks bright and well designed. Tesla cars along with PowerWall /Solar Panel offer a complete solution for a different lifestyle. It's a gradual process but it's looks promising. By the way I booked Model X P100D got my VIN AWAITING Delivery.

welcome to the forum Red. I don't really understand the connection between your comment and mine.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Oh really? Why I have the impression that all of the people here was caught by surprise in June? None of us are long term investors or none of us did our DD? I mean if we're talking about years in the future, yeh, I think a lot less was surprised. But it was proposed in June, not years later.

"some of our largest shareholders" may not include some other largest shareholders who may feel bad about how this merger was done.

And the SMP2 have no relevance in this discussion. My point is some institution holders may get upset after reading the S-4 knowing EM had this idea way back in January AND did not disclose anything during the secondary. SMP2's time is after the merger announcement.

And my point is that Elon Musk had this idea for years and did not make any secret of it, the idea of the merger was vetted with largest shareholders for years. As far as the actual merger concerned, as was mentioned during the call, Tesla went above and beyond of what is legally required by making the merger announcement BEFORE definitive agreement was reached, not after as is usually done.

In terms of specific timing, these announcements are by definition ALWAYS a surprise, as they are usually announced AFTER the definitive agreement is reached.

Oh, and the quote was NOT from SMP2, it was from the original Master Plan.

 

[RobStark]

Guy's gotta do his job. Sits there all day clicking "Dislike". ;-)