Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[BobSk]

So I only need ~150 shares and some time to become a millionaire? cool!

First we probably will see a little bit dilution soon. But later on, I have no doubt we will see larger amount of stock buyback, just like Apple did in recent years. Because of the buyback, I guess100 shares today will help you achieve that goal in 10~15 years. That's assume you can hold through all the downs and ups.

 

[Intl Professor]

Wow. This further validates the attacks on Henry Ford comparison someone made earlier - but I bet old Henry didn't have to contend with a well-funded horse and buggy maker lobby.

But Ford had John D. on his side, although I cannot substantiate they were certainly not antagonists.

Edit: A quick Google search revealed this:

When America’s Titans of Industry and Innovation Went Road-Tripping Together | History | Smithsonian

No mention of Rockefeller in the article, but....

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I sense shorts really hate the Tesla/SolarCity merger. Those websites used to bash Tesla non stop now saying buying SolarCity is a terrible idea. Chanos yesterday said "after buying SolarCity, Tesla will turn into a "walking insolvency". Clearly he wants to persuade the shareholders to vote No. That puzzles me. Chanos said he has short position on both Tesla and SolarCity. From his perspective, isn't it great for the two companies to turn into a "walking insolvency"?

I like to play chess, it's fun to think why the opponent makes certain moves. Chanos's showed he hates the merger. I have to think why he hates it? I remember Elon said the merger will put Tesla on the path to become a trillion dollar company. Maybe Chanos is worried the master plan 2 will gradually materialize after the merger? I am going to vote "Yes" from both sides.

Bingo! He isn't making public announcements for our sake!

 

[SPadival]

So some CFO at an oil pipeline services company tried to spear phish tesla's cfo with a fake yahoo account and an interesting attempt at an em impersonation.

Tesla is suing oil industry exec for impersonating Elon Musk to get confidential information

So does this guy not know about federal wire fraud or California's Anti-phishing act of 2005? Tesla is suing for damages related to investigation but I would be surprised if this doesn't get a criminal investigation and maybe the sec?

PS. Anyone have q3 internal delivery projections? Asking for a friend.

I won't be surprised if few of the bottom feeding Wall St types at Seeking Alpha are paid by Chanos to troll TSLA relentlessly. Either that or they have a mental condition leading to an obsession with Elon.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

They're not. The question is why does a minority on this forum persist in the foolish belief it's a slam dunk bad idea when everyone (including institutional investors) with access to much more complete information believes the exact opposite.

Hubris or foolishness squared.

Edit:
It's actually not a mystery. SP takes a hit and the sky is falling, Elon's an idiot.....

You actually don't know that. You have few months old statements, and increasing price disparity btw. TSLA and SCTY that most of the times means something. And we don't have public commitment of large investors except for one Fidelity manager.
But you keep repeating this statement as if it were a fact...

There are also rules about proper disclosure of material information, and Elon by law can't be giving significantly more information to institutional investors privately. Sure they have direct access to him, and may be able to glean some stuff from his reactions, but anything more than that, and you would be accusing Elon that he plays dirty. I don't think you want to go there. So why do you think institutions have "much more complete information"?

 

[neroden]

Wow. This further validates the attacks on Henry Ford comparison someone made earlier - but I bet old Henry didn't have to contend with a well-funded horse and buggy maker lobby.

You know, I've never done enough historical research to find out how powerful Big Horse was back then.

 

[neroden]

if there is no deal, I'm quite confident some in the media will pull several muscles trying to portray that as what is happening. that said, what percentage of Tesla investors do you think would like Elon Musk to step down as CEO of Tesla? do you think that percentage would change meaningfully depending on whether the SCTY deal happens or not?

Enough. :-( It would at least trash the stock price. Recall that Tesla still needs to raise more money, and a low stock price is bad for money-raising. I think in the unlikely event that the deal gets voted down, the most likely scenario is a tremendous crash in the stock, lack of access to the borrowing markets (remember, it matters what those banks who lend money think), followed by an *extremely* dilutive stock issuance.

As a stockholder I would rather avoid a severe dilution.

I still think the merger is *extremely* likely to be approved.

 

[dakh]

Enough. :-( It would at least trash the stock price. Recall that Tesla still needs to raise more money, and a low stock price is bad for money-raising. I think in the unlikely event that the deal gets voted down, the most likely scenario is a tremendous crash in the stock, lack of access to the borrowing markets (remember, it matters what those banks who lend money think), followed by an *extremely* dilutive stock issuance.

As a stockholder I would rather avoid a severe dilution.

I still think the merger is *extremely* likely to be approved.

If there's a severe stock price drop they'll probably just scale down Model3 plans way down or take private investment.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

You mean that the transition to sustainable energy is less important to Elon than Dimic's short term portfolio?

Maybe if Elon understood what is at stake he'd reorganize his priorities.

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

 

[Yggdrasill]

Enough. :-( It would at least trash the stock price. Recall that Tesla still needs to raise more money, and a low stock price is bad for money-raising. I think in the unlikely event that the deal gets voted down, the most likely scenario is a tremendous crash in the stock, lack of access to the borrowing markets (remember, it matters what those banks who lend money think), followed by an *extremely* dilutive stock issuance.

As a stockholder I would rather avoid a severe dilution.

I still think the merger is *extremely* likely to be approved.

I agree. I don't think the big investors want to trash the SP.

I added som SCTY yesterday.

 

[trentxintong]

I don't think the timing of the Bolt announcement is a coincidence. Trying to take the shine off the Autopilot update by announcing the next day. Even when they make clean cars GM is dirty.

I think GM deserves some credits for making a good EV. Its unrealistic to expect TSLA to be better than GM

I agree. I don't think the big investors want to trash the SP.

I added som SCTY yesterday.

Why do you think the SP will drop if the dealer does not go through ?

 

[Tenable]

I think GM deserves some credits for making a good EV. Its unrealistic to expect TSLA to be better than GM

Why do you think the SP will drop if the dealer does not go through ?

Troll?

 

[neroden]

If there's a severe stock price drop they'll probably just scale down Model3 plans way down or take private investment.

Not options. Musk will issue as much stock as needed for the expansion. Have you followed him? Maybe it will be a private placement, but that's *just as dilutive*.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think GM deserves some credits for making a good EV. Its unrealistic to expect TSLA to be better than GM

I'm sure the Bolt will be a fine car. Not as good as the Model 3 on anything except delivery time, but still attractive enough to outsell the Leaf, provided sufficient production.

Why do you think the SP will drop if the dealer does not go through ?

Lack of trust in management.

 

[neroden]

Why do you think the SP will drop if the dealer does not go through ?

30 years of watching merger deals which did, or didn't happen. You can research 30 years of succesful and failed mergers yourself if you don't believe me. Feel free.

 

[sub]

Hey srini, could you stop blowing up my notifications with dislikes? A dozen now. I get it. You dislike facts.

Beat me to it. Either the call out shamed him/her into hiding or it's nap time.

Tesla is not just about cars, Tesla is trying to create its own ecosystem and extreme loyal customer base. It's the beginning but path looks bright and well designed. Tesla cars along with PowerWall /Solar Panel offer a complete solution for a different lifestyle. It's a gradual process but it's looks promising. By the way I booked Model X P100D got my VIN AWAITING Delivery.

Welcome and congrats.

The idea of the merger can't be a surprise to any long term TSLA investor who did their due diligence.

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal:

"He had not disclosed the deal, he said, but over the years, "this idea has been bandied about with some of our largest shareholders, institutional shareholders. Yeah, there have been discussions."

The manager of the second largest mutual fund investor in Tesla, the $12 billion Fidelity OTC Portfolio, which is also the largest institutional holder of SolarCity, praised a tie-up in comments earlier this year.

"We remain fans not just of Tesla products, but of the concepts and potential future partnerships behind the company. We foresee fruitful synergies between say, Tesla and SolarCity – or any company that can benefit from superior battery technology," Gavin Baker, who runs the Fidelity OTC fund, said in his first-quarter commentary for investors. It owns 2.1 percent of shares.

Overall, 45 percent of Tesla shareholders also hold SolarCity stock, a person familiar with the matter said."

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

"So, in short, the master plan is:

1. Build sports car
2. Use that money to build an affordable car
3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Don't tell anyone."

Mic drop

Edit - typo

 

[sub]

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

I hate when people threaten to leave and stay. Please don't be that guy.

 

[tander]

Not options. Musk will issue as much stock as needed for the expansion. Have you followed him? Maybe it will be a private placement, but that's *just as dilutive*.

They can always do another down round. Although they are aiming to get out of that habit.

30 years of watching merger deals which did, or didn't happen. You can research 30 years of succesful and failed mergers yourself if you don't believe me. Feel free.

I'm thinking if the deal goes through SCTY will see a big jump if it's visible before the actual merger (I don't know would they announce the results of the vote before the shares are actually merged?) and TSLA won't be effected much, and if SCTY went up enough it would actually move TSLA shares up because then it would look like TSLA underpaid and got a "deal". And if somehow the deal didn't go through SCTY would drop hugely and TSLA might go up a little.

 

[3Victoria]

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

I took it to be a rather good natured poke rather than an 'attack' ... It could hardly come true, and so was in jest.

 

[dakh]

Not options. Musk will issue as much stock as needed for the expansion. Have you followed him? Maybe it will be a private placement, but that's *just as dilutive*.

The backstop is losing control of the company or being reckless enough with finances to put overall success in jeopardy. They can delay full M3 ramp for a year or two and self-fund the original plan if it's not working out to get a shot of greenbacks in the arm on reasonable terms. What I'm saying is they're not forced to make ugly, unfair deals. I don't think if SP is at $200 level it's too unfair/ugly, but at 140 maybe it is.