Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dakh]

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

Oh come on man, can't we give you some sugar for disliking the merger and not having real good ways to justify that other than your own investment goal fulfillment? That ain't fair.

 

[stealthology]

Just out from SeekingAlpha:
Mobileye: Tesla 'pushed the envelope on safety'

Lol, this happened back in July. Also, seemed like Tesla was the one to actually end the relationship. Curious why it comes up today.

 

[dakh]

I'm thinking if the deal goes through SCTY will see a big jump if it's visible before the actual merger (I don't know would they announce the results of the vote before the shares are actually merged?) and TSLA won't be effected much, and if SCTY went up enough it would actually move TSLA shares up because then it would look like TSLA underpaid and got a "deal". And if somehow the deal didn't go through SCTY would drop hugely and TSLA might go up a little.

Um, yea. Now that all the folks like me who have very little clue on how corporate mergers work kinda got an idea of what the process is in regards to voting... we're up for next chapter, if it's a go how will the process of transitioning of SCTY paper to TSLA paper work.

We're told exchange rate is set so effectively if merger is a go both companies's stock will combine based on agreed terms and then the market will value each share as what it thinks the new company is worth. So far if we look at share prices the market thinks the merger probability is below 100% and the market thinks the merger makes both companies LESS valuable, although it's hard to pick out if the merger was the main driver or other factors. Or the market simply thought the process of merging increases volatility and that has to give some short term discount and when merger is a go volatility is gone and thus the discount.

 

[FredTMC]

wow tesla posted around 280 more Model s to their visible inventory. There's 342 inventory cars shown now (thru EV-CPO)

This is the largest single day increase I've seen

It won't surprise me at all if Tesla extends the 2-year lease option on inventory cars through end of Sep.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Hmm, so I see someone posted this a couple of pages back, but it appears it got lost in the sea of personal disputes and the usual "will the SCTY deal go through?" posts. (Shocker: it will!)

With only 2 weeks left of the quarter that has the potential to be the biggest boost to TSLA since, well, that legendary Q1 2013, Fred (Electrek) posted this drone video taken 9/10 of the Fermont factory with hundreds of cars ready for shipment.

What do you guys think, how many cars do we see there ready to be shipped? And what would be the reasonable last days of production for shipments to the East Coast, Vs West Coast vs. California? Anyone living in the Tilburg area has any scoop how we are doing there?

*Sugar* is getting real guys, it's time to start that countdown clock to October 3rd and pull our usual TMC resources together!

PS: So I understand the go-shop period for SCTY should have ended EOD yesterday... When do we think Tesla will release the date of the vote? Any chance they can coordinate that announcement with the October 3 release to achieve a maximum cascading effect on upwards pressure on SP (great Q3 number + share recall = short squeeze), or are these things on autopilot (no pun intended) after the initial announcement?

 

[schonelucht]

They're not. The question is why does a minority on this forum persist in the foolish belief it's a slam dunk bad idea when everyone (including institutional investors) with access to much more complete information believes the exact opposite.

We don't know that. I think plenty of people would have preferred that the deal never was proposed, but now that it has, that voting no would be even worse, given the reputational damage to Elon personally and the continuing need of Tesla to access the capital markets.

 

[schonelucht]

wow tesla posted around 280 more Model s to their visible inventory. There's 342 inventory cars shown now (thru EV-CPO)

This is the largest single day increase I've seen

It won't surprise me at all if Tesla extends the 2-year lease option on inventory cars through end of Sep.

Note that many of these are from a recente range that's already counted in the VINs for this quarter. You can either see this as a good thing (inventory is nearly empty) or as a bad thing (Tesla doing ever larger and larger inventory runs to keep the production flowing)

 

[FredTMC]

Note that many of these are from a recente range that's already counted in the VINs for this quarter. You can either see this as a good thing (inventory is nearly empty) or as a bad thing (Tesla doing ever larger and larger inventory runs to keep the production flowing)

Moving forward towards last few weeks of Sep, If I were tesla, I'd strongly steer new customers towards a car from inventory. In doing so, tesla gets to book another sale in Q3.

It certainly helps Tesla if there's a decent amount (good selection) of inventory cars available to choose from in these final few weeks of Q3

 

[Runarbt]

I think GM deserves some credits for making a good EV. Its unrealistic to expect TSLA to be better than GM

You got that backwards. why would GM want to build a better EV than Tesla.
Or rather, be able to when they have their ICE and dealers they have to consider?

 

[schonelucht]

Moving forward towards last few weeks of Sep, If I were tesla, I'd strongly steer new customers towards a car from inventory. In doing so, tesla gets to book another sale in Q3.

Sure. But it's going to be tight. Inventory purchases normally take a few weeks to pull through. With the end-of-quarter drive, service centres will be even more slammed. Realistically they can sell these cars only locally at the moment.

 

[stealthology]

Without much knowledge on the subject, does anyone know if lawsuits could realistically delay the SCTY deal? I'm sure lawsuits are not out of the ordinary with M&A. I read some rumblings about lawsuits, and that Tesla requires them to be brought up in Delaware.

 

[RobStark]

You got that backwards. why would GM want to build a better EV than Tesla.
Or rather, be able to when they have their ICE and dealers they have to consider?

1) To poke Elon in they eye after years of taunts. Don't underestimate how childish very wealthy powerful adults can be in certain circumstances.

2) I don't think dealers care all that much as long as they only have to move 30k global units. It is "taking one for the team" in order to get regulatory credits. A better one means less discount. Cadillac dealers remember slashing $30k off the MSRP of the ELR.

 

[techmaven]

wow tesla posted around 280 more Model s to their visible inventory. There's 342 inventory cars shown now (thru EV-CPO)

This is the largest single day increase I've seen

It won't surprise me at all if Tesla extends the 2-year lease option on inventory cars through end of Sep.

I think most of these were removed on 9/1, then added back. At least, on 9/1 a huge mass of cars was removed, then today a huge mass, roughly equal in size was added. There are a lot more lower spec cars than before. Maybe a rebalancing of the loaner fleet?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think most of these were removed on 9/1, then added back. At least, on 9/1 a huge mass of cars was removed, then today a huge mass, roughly equal in size was added. There are a lot more lower spec cars than before. Maybe a rebalancing of the loaner fleet?

There also are no "discounts" on these added demo cars, see this post.

EDIT:
This, BTW, is not consistent with the reports from the Forum's VIN counting team, which over the last several weeks could be summarized as incoming orders narrowly not being able to support 2,000 units per week production rate.

If that would pan out, Tesla would be quite motivated to have sizable discounts to move these demo cars in Q3. Absence of discounts, of course, does not support this narrative.

Given Elon's email, which essentially indicated that Tesla tracking to be non-GAAP profitable in Q3, and possibly, with an additional effort, could even be GAAP profitable *and* cash flow positive, it is clear that Tesla does not have any demand problem to meet these excellent financial results.

This also puts into question conclusions advocated by the Forum's demand skeptics team that "huge discounts" on the classic nose coned cars were indication of the weak demand for Model S. These "discounts", as was discussed multiple times, were rather representative of the market conditions for obsolense instead.

 

[CatB]

I hate when people threaten to leave and stay. Please don't be that guy.

Me too, meaning, just stay
I understand your frustration, even tho I am willing to delay ROI for the greater mission. And I trust EM that it will be worth it.

 

[schonelucht]

This, BTW, is not consistent with the reports from the Forum's VIN counting team, which over the last several weeks could be summarized as incoming orders narrowly not being able to support 2,000 units per week production rate.

Wait! What? No. If incoming demand was able to soak up full production, there would be no inventory in the first place. The very fact that there is a seemingly endless supply of inventory shows that whatever demand there was, Tesla could easily produce.

If that would pan out, Tesla would be quite motivated to have sizable discounts to move these demo cars in Q3. Absence of discounts, of course, does not support this narrative.

If Tesla is on the verge of being GAAP positive, they'd be very motivated _not_ to sell with a discount.

Given Elon's email, which essentially indicated that Tesla tracking to be non-GAAP profitable in Q3, and possibly, with an additional effort, could even be GAAP profitable *and* cash flow positive, it is clear that Tesla does not have any demand problem to meet these excellent financial results.

You are shifting the goal posts here. From 'not meeting 2000 units production rate' to 'no meeting financial results'. Having a lot of discounted inventory is most consistent with a) production is capable to outpace demand (hence there is inventory in the first place) and b) demand is able to support excellent financials (hence not needing to discount these cars)

This also puts into question conclusions advocated by the Forum's demand skeptics team that "huge discounts" on the classic nose coned cars were indication of the weak demand for Model S. These "discounts", as was discussed multiple times, were rather representative of the market conditions for obsolense instead.

It does indeed.

 

[EinSV]

First S P100D has already been delivered and has been to the track on Day 1.

Tesla P100D Ludicrous Model S Performance Testing

Not sure how many of these will be delivered in Q3 but could be a little frosting on the cake.

Performed as advertised: 0-60 MPH in 2.54 seconds and a 1/4 mile time of 10.7.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

Dude! Don't be discouraged and don't leave the forum
You're totally entitled to your opinions as is everyone else
Don't let people run over your feelings
Stay the course

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wait! What? No. If incoming demand was able to soak up full production, there would be no inventory in the first place. The very fact that there is a seemingly endless supply of inventory shows that whatever demand there was, Tesla could easily produce.

I do not see these cars as an inventory in the way you see it. The reality is that with 260 stores around the globe, assuming roughly 5 demo cars per store, Tesla has to maintain 1,300 cars strong demo fleet. It is in their interest to refresh these cars as soon as possible, to keep demo fleet fresh and avoid heavy discounting due to obsolescence. This is the primary goal of putting these cars for sale as soon as they hit the demo fleet. Everything else is secondary. Now, if one assumes that reasonable refresh rate is once per calendar quarter, Tesla needs to sell 1,300 demo cars each and every quarter. These 1,300 cars per quarter *are* part of the demand. Hence my assertion that that "demand can't quite support 2,000 cars/week production" conclusion is not accurate.

If Tesla is on the verge of being GAAP positive, they'd be very motivated _not_ to sell with a discount.

Well, not if one recognizes that even with all of the demand levers put in place, they do not take a margin "hit", but rather, as I was advocating for some time, that the margin guidance by the company is inclusive of all of the demand levers.

You are shifting the goal posts here. From 'not meeting 2000 units production rate' to 'no meeting financial results'. Having a lot of discounted inventory is most consistent with a) production is capable to outpace demand (hence there is inventory in the first place) and b) demand is able to support excellent financials (hence not needing to discount these cars).

I am not shifting anything. These excellent financial results are not possible unless production rate exceeds roughly 2,000 units per week.

 

[MitchJi]

Hey srini, could you stop blowing up my notifications with dislikes? A dozen now. I get it. You dislike facts.

Thanks! I hadn't realized that a fringe benefit of ignoring srini and driven is not receiving notifications of their constant dislikes and funnies.

They're not. The question is why does a minority on this forum persist in the foolish belief it's a slam dunk bad idea when everyone (including institutional investors) with access to much more complete information believes the exact opposite.

Hubris or foolishness squared.

Edit:
It's actually not a mystery. SP takes a hit and the sky is falling, Elon's an idiot.....

You mean that the transition to sustainable energy is less important to Elon than Dimic's short term portfolio?

Maybe if Elon understood what is at stake he'd reorganize his priorities.

You actually don't know that. You have few months old statements, and increasing price disparity btw. TSLA and SCTY that most of the times means something. And we don't have public commitment of large investors except for one Fidelity manager.
But you keep repeating this statement as if it were a fact...

Elon said that in one of the SCTY calls. It's quoted by Vlad upthread.

There are also rules about proper disclosure of material information, and Elon by law can't be giving significantly more information to institutional investors privately. Sure they have direct access to him, and may be able to glean some stuff from his reactions, but anything more than that, and you would be accusing Elon that he plays dirty. I don't think you want to go there. So why do you think institutions have "much more complete information"?

Because they do. Watch the Google hangout video with DaveT and Andrea. Or you could actually listen to Elon's conference calls justifying the SCTY merger, before you bash the deal.

Ad hominem attacks in disguise now?
I'm used to this on stocktwits from shorts.
It's a lot more depressing here...
I'll try to make this my last post here

The facts are that Elon's goals are to accelerate the transition to sustainable transportation (EV's) and sustainable energy generation (solar panels and storage), and he believes that the resulting opportunity provides the opportunity for TSLA to become a trillion dollar company. The solar panels/storage part of the equation might seem far fetched to you, but the EV portion of the equation seemed unlikely at one point also. In any case your criticism of the deal boiled down to your short term portfolio and it's not an attack to point out that:
1. Putting short term stock price above sustainable energy generation would require a change in the SMP.
2. Elon has access to much more complete information than you do and giving up a chance to disrupt energy generation because you believe that it's not in the best interests of the company isn't going to happen, and that most investors would not want that anyway.
3. If you're going to be unhappy about either of those things you will probably be happier investing someplace else. Because that's how Elon rolls.