Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[aznt1217]

Sorry. When is this new 80MWh storage scheduled to be completed?

was directed to solicit a utility-scale storage solution that could be operational by December 31, 2016

 

[FredTMC]

Sorry. When is this new 80MWh storage scheduled to be completed?

Never Mind. End of this year

Ummm. Wow

 

[esk8mw]

Could some big TSLA holders make a deal with Elon? Something like, we will vote no unless you change the exchange ratio.

So I calculated the expected profit of arbitraging SCTY under different scenarios
1. Fail. SCTY goes to 0. Exchange ratio would be something like 0.0001. Probability 5%.
2. Pass, but exchange ratio changed to 0.08. Probability 5%.
3. Pass, but exchange ratio changed to 0.09. Probability 10%.
4. Pass, but exchange ratio changed to 0.10. Probability 20%.
5. Pass, exchange ratio unchanged at 0.11. Probability 55%.
Given the current prices of these two names, the expected profit would then be 7.48%. Then you also need to take into the risk of TSLA itself and the time premium of several months.

Again, anything is possible, but I've never heard of institutions holding a deal hostage like that.

I strongly disagree with a number of assumptions you made here, though. If the merger fails SCTY will not automatically go to 0. Even fully BK companies do not fully go to 0. Reality is that SCTY would probably immediately drop to 7.50 or something and you could still get out with some cash (or wait and see if they recover). Immediate 0 is an unrealistic scenario.

I'd also say a 25% chance of an exchange ratio change to be incredibly high. Personally, I'd put odds around 1-2%. As I said, it's quite rare at this stage of the game. My personal numbers, fwiw (nothing) would look like this:

- Fail, SCTY goes to $7.50. 15% chance.
- Pass, exchange ratio to .095. 1% chance
- Pass, same exchange rate: 84% chance.

 

[Fallenone]

Again, anything is possible, but I've never heard of institutions holding a deal hostage like that.

I strongly disagree with a number of assumptions you made here, though. If the merger fails SCTY will not automatically go to 0. Even fully BK companies do not fully go to 0. Reality is that SCTY would probably immediately drop to 7.50 or something and you could still get out with some cash (or wait and see if they recover). Immediate 0 is an unrealistic scenario.

I'd also say a 25% chance of an exchange ratio change to be incredibly high. Personally, I'd put odds around 1-2%. As I said, it's quite rare at this stage of the game. My personal numbers, fwiw (nothing) would look like this:

- Fail, SCTY goes to $7.50. 15% chance.
- Pass, exchange ratio to .095. 1% chance
- Pass, same exchange rate: 84% chance.

Thanks for the input!

 

[joseph7h]

Anyone thinks an upgrade by a Wall St bank is overdue? After all bad news in last several months, tesla stock may have bottomed out. I see a big reverse upward if Q3 deliveries are satisfactory, say > 21k.

 

[austinEV]

Again, anything is possible, but I've never heard of institutions holding a deal hostage like that.

I strongly disagree with a number of assumptions you made here, though. If the merger fails SCTY will not automatically go to 0. Even fully BK companies do not fully go to 0. Reality is that SCTY would probably immediately drop to 7.50 or something and you could still get out with some cash (or wait and see if they recover). Immediate 0 is an unrealistic scenario.

I'd also say a 25% chance of an exchange ratio change to be incredibly high. Personally, I'd put odds around 1-2%. As I said, it's quite rare at this stage of the game. My personal numbers, fwiw (nothing) would look like this:

- Fail, SCTY goes to $7.50. 15% chance.
- Pass, exchange ratio to .095. 1% chance
- Pass, same exchange rate: 84% chance.

Either way the arbitrage is way out of whack.

 

[30seconds]

For anyone interested here is AB-2868, just passed by California Senate

Bill Text - AB-2868 Energy storage.

It directs the three largest state utilities to build more storage, including behind the meter

Also some analysis on SB-886 which directs utilities to consider storage instead of new plants

CALIFORNIA: Officials mull revamp of electric system as blackouts loom

 

[RobStark]

You can't do this on Model 3. Disclaimer; I would rather buy Model 3. My point is just that there is some use of that extra volume and that it can increase practicality.

View attachment 194570

Perfect car for this chic!

 

[austinEV]

For anyone interested here is AB-2868, just passed by California Senate

Bill Text - AB-2868 Energy storage.

It directs the three largest state utilities to build more storage, including behind the meter

Also some analysis on SB-886 which directs utilities to consider storage instead of new plants

CALIFORNIA: Officials mull revamp of electric system as blackouts loom

Sort of related: I was driving through LA in car with a sunroof, at a time of max grid stress. I was stunned by how you could *hear* the power lines and transformers buzzing loudly.

 

[Quesder]

I wish I listened to this guy back in April
Looking for the exit from a short Tesla trade

 

[W84M3]

Tbh not that convinced of today's rally with nsdq at +1.4% and we were long overdue some recovering. Volume still low..

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Fricken hell, I knew I was going to buy in at a peak

It's okay this will be no issue in few days if not few weeks.
TSLA under 200 is screaming buy
TSLA under 180 is sell your kidney to buy

 

[GBleck]

Arbitrage is running close to 28%

If mbly keeps being a jilted ex girlfriend I may have to liquidate them.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I wish I listened to this guy back in April
Looking for the exit from a short Tesla trade

Probably a smart move. TSLA above 240 is a sell and above 260 is a screaming sell. After Q3 and near M3 I would guess these target gets raised 20-40 bucks. You can be long or short to make a ton of money on such a volatile stock. The bears that's calling to short TSLA when it's under 200 are jokers... 260 they may have a point.

 

[stealthology]

View attachment 194572
..Now, we know this isn't short selling because there are no shares available to short..

There are currently 9.81K shares avail to short on IB, and if my memory serves me right, it was over 30K just a couple hours ago and hit a low of 4K. Now it's 9.99K as the market is about to close.

Anyone thinks an upgrade by a Wall St bank is overdue?

Absolutely. Things have been pretty quiet.

 

[Jayjs20]

It's okay this will be no issue in few days if not few weeks.
TSLA under 200 is screaming buy
TSLA under 180 is sell your kidney to buy

In the long run, sure. In the short run, I hate my life.

Long story short, after all the gains the SP made today, I'm going to be lucky if I walk away breaking even. Sometimes I just want to stop trying to beat the SP, but then I remember selling at 234.5; if I had stayed out entirely instead of trying to stick to it, I'd be way better off than I am now.

 

[dennis]

I couldn't resist picking up more TSLA for $158. So I jumped into SCTY with both feet and will have added 30% to my LT TSLA position if the deal goes through as planned.

 

[DaveT]

Again, anything is possible, but I've never heard of institutions holding a deal hostage like that.

I strongly disagree with a number of assumptions you made here, though. If the merger fails SCTY will not automatically go to 0. Even fully BK companies do not fully go to 0. Reality is that SCTY would probably immediately drop to 7.50 or something and you could still get out with some cash (or wait and see if they recover). Immediate 0 is an unrealistic scenario.

I'd also say a 25% chance of an exchange ratio change to be incredibly high. Personally, I'd put odds around 1-2%. As I said, it's quite rare at this stage of the game. My personal numbers, fwiw (nothing) would look like this:

- Fail, SCTY goes to $7.50. 15% chance.
- Pass, exchange ratio to .095. 1% chance
- Pass, same exchange rate: 84% chance.

Here's my guess at the odds right now:

55% probability - TSLA acquisition of SCTY goes through.
45% probability - TSLA acquisition of SCTY doesn't go through.

In case that acquisition doesn't go through:
50-75% probability that SCTY declares bankruptcy and stock price goes to 0 within 0-6 months.*

When I see people jumping in on SCTY right now (thinking they're getting a good deal), I can't help but think of GTAT. I'm not saying they're identical... all I'm saying is GTAT pops in my mind.

*Note: price goes to 0 in case of SCTY bankruptcy because all of SCTY assets get divided up among senior debt holders, and common stockholders get stuck with absolutely nothing.

 

[dirtyofries]

Here's my guess at the odds right now:

55% probability - TSLA acquisition of SCTY goes through.
45% probability - TSLA acquisition of SCTY doesn't go through.

Those seem quite a bit more pessimistic than anything I'm seeing leads me to believe. Explain your reasoning?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'd say:

80% probability the deal goes through.
10% probability the deal fails, but Elon Musk keeps Solar City alive with loans, and integrates them into Tesla in a different way.
10% probability the deal fails, Solar City goes bankrupt and the leftovers are bought by Tesla.

I think Tesla and Solar City will join forces, one way or another.