I was thinking the same! Thanks in advance
In all seriousness though, I think following the data on shares available to short, and cost to borrow will be particularly useful next week.
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I was thinking the same! Thanks in advance
In all seriousness though, I think following the data on shares available to short, and cost to borrow will be particularly useful next week.
stealthology
Member
My gut says Elon will do what needs to be done to get this merger through, and have a good enough Q3 to at the very least support the SP with all the negativity now. It's public now that they need to raise funds in Q4. This all reminds me of my anxiety for last years Q4 deliveries. I had faith based on all the reading I was doing here. I love you guys.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Unless your wife is the primary user, I would hold out for the MX. I have to stoop down to get into the MS, and I'm less than 5'11".
Two thoughts that could impact TSLA stock price.
Jason Wheeler described the two weeks of nonproduction in Q4 as "holiday weeks", presumably over Thanksgiving and Christmas. If production is shut down the last week of Q4, then there is a reasonable chance that all of the cars produced and sold in Q4 will be delivered in Q4. A subtle point but one that could add an additional ~2,000 deliveries in Q4. One might also expect a slowdown in production and refilling the pipeline during the first week of Q4 as a result of the push at the end of Q3. Thinking that Q4 deliveries might be something like the equivalent of 10 weeks at 2,300 cars/week for a total of 23,000 cars. Perhaps 25,000 cars in Q4 if the pipeline is cleaned out again.
The second thought is that Elon's tweet on the October 28th announcement refers to a product in the San Francisco area. Does that mean that the product will be initially sold only in the San Francisco area or does it mean that an actual product in the San Francisco area will be demonstrated on October 28th. I think the latter. Perhaps we will get to see the new "solar roof" on the 28th.
Jason Wheeler described the two weeks of nonproduction in Q4 as "holiday weeks", presumably over Thanksgiving and Christmas. If production is shut down the last week of Q4, then there is a reasonable chance that all of the cars produced and sold in Q4 will be delivered in Q4. A subtle point but one that could add an additional ~2,000 deliveries in Q4. One might also expect a slowdown in production and refilling the pipeline during the first week of Q4 as a result of the push at the end of Q3. Thinking that Q4 deliveries might be something like the equivalent of 10 weeks at 2,300 cars/week for a total of 23,000 cars. Perhaps 25,000 cars in Q4 if the pipeline is cleaned out again.
The second thought is that Elon's tweet on the October 28th announcement refers to a product in the San Francisco area. Does that mean that the product will be initially sold only in the San Francisco area or does it mean that an actual product in the San Francisco area will be demonstrated on October 28th. I think the latter. Perhaps we will get to see the new "solar roof" on the 28th.
Even I'm starting to realise the merger is probably a sure thing.... but to play Devil's Advocate wouldnt you hire a Solar exec as a Plan B in case the merger didnt go through? It would be important to announce plans that you are looking at other solar opportunities on the day of loss - and also demonstrate that you are going forward in developing solar technology in house....
Of course hiring a solar exec is a no-brainer if merger is a done deal and they can assist in bringing the two companies together.
What morons at UBS. This survey of theirs shows exactly the opposite of their "conclusion". Indicating Tesla would be the top market share in the market (currently BMW is top at a little less than 25%). Not to mention a lot of other things like we still haven't seen any production EV from those luxury brands.
I don't think so. If the merger fails I think Tesla still plans on working with SCTY with these products - it will just be a supplier/customer relationship instead of all under 1 roof. I seriously doubt Elon would go buy another solar company if the deal fails or develop the tech in house as that would compete with SCTY (where he's a huge SH and Chairman). The solar accountant does not have much use unless the merger closes, IMO. If he wasn't sure if the deal would pass I think he'd hold off on hiring the guy until after the vote.
I agree and add that this guy is an accountant not an engineer - he's being hired to try and explain $SCTYs financials nobody can understand to Elon. (Half joking)
Mike
My thoughts on the solar roof announcement:
1) The stock will not surge upwards after this announcement. It just won't. I dread the 500 posts that will speculate on that front. These product announcements simply never move the stock.
2) I am puzzled by this talk of a "solar roof". Elon explained it wasn't something you put on a roof, but the roof itself. Fine... but the thing is there is no such product as a non-solar "roof" now. He isn't adding solar to some existing product, therefore improving its value proposition. He is inventing "roof" as a product. Color me skeptical but there is a reason for that. No two custom built house are the same so roofs are built custom per house. Inefficient and expensive yes, but that is a construction reality. So, let's say he is making a sort of sandwhich material product like SIP's, with solar on top, insulation, and sheathing on the bottom. Ok, but one wouldn't make the whole roof with a solar surface, there will always be places with tree shading or something. So presumably this product includes an option for some dummy surface, metal say. So the whole thing reduces to avoiding the cost of some metal roof directly under the active solar part of the roof. So, like 500 square feet of metal... On it's face it doesn't seem like an enormous savings and optimizing the wrong thing. I eagerly away Elon proving me wrong.
Why would a top solar industry exec take a options heavy comp package before merger is done unless he was convinced it was near certainty that the deal would go through and his stock options wont become worthless?
Yeah Im not too impressed with the solar roof idea to be honest, Ive been hearing about solar roofs for the last 15 years. They never materialise due to cost, weight, complexity and maintenance. I do think we will get there eventually though, but the idea itself is not groundbreaking. What could be groundbreaking is if they have solved the major hurdles.
Around here, universities and scientists have been developing solar PV paint which could be very interesting.
I would assume he was getting Tesla stock options? I don't know anything of the renumeration, so no idea about this.
Yeah, but still he has to be convinced that tesla will be doing well in the next few years, and what is his value proposition to tesla if the merger fails, it seems like his position only makes sense if merger goes through, no?
Personally I feel Tesla will be far better off if the merger fails. Happy to be proven wrong though!
That has nothing to do with what i said.
Just to be clear, the grant date value is $5 million but the vehicle isn't set - the 8-K says it will be in the form of RSUs, options or a combination thereof.
Assuming options are used, it's not a slam dunk that they will become worthless if the deal doesn't go through. The strike price will be the SP on the start date and the term will likely be 10 years. Even if the SP takes a short term hit due to the failed merger a lot can happen in 10 years...
racer26
Active Member
15 years ago when Tesla Motors was founded, many many companies had tried electric cars before, and they all failed due to cost, complexity, reliability, performance or range concerns. The idea of an electric car was not new. Tesla however, showed the world that you can in fact build a compelling EV for a reasonable price, and with the 3Q16 results is about to show you can do it profitably.
The trouble with older solar roofing technologies is that they were put forth in an environment where they were dramatically more expensive than the competing incumbent technologies, and they weren't willing to throw away all notion of what a roof *is* before they started. This is the very same problem past EV companies had - they started with preconceived notions of what a car *is*, and ended up with an inferior product.
There is no doubt in my mind that Elon, Tesla and SolarCity have come up with something here that breaks the mold just as much as Tesla Motors did for EVs.
His value proposition to Tesla if the merger fails would be negligible, and I imagine he would be let go. If I were in his shoes, I wouldn't sign on unless I was reasonably assured that the merger goes through. In addition, I'm betting that 5M options package doesn't vest if he and the company part ways. All the more reason I would want assurances of the merger's success before I accepted the terms of the deal in his shoes.
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