Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

Some thoughts on trading today:
* At present, some shorts who were notified of recall 3 days ago may be covering, thus some upward pressure at moment
* If shorts are expected to enter new positions on Monday with fairly large numbers, there will be downward pressure on Monday, which might mean downward pressure during the final 30 minutes of trading today
* Some longs are waiting for record date, for shorts reentering to drop SP a bit and then they start buying

Thus, maybe we see up, down, down, up, with the second down and second up taking place next week

I am going to need exact times and prices on those so I can trade them perfectly.

You're a wanting specifics, eh? Well, here's goes. Tesla today was supposed to do a slow increase in the afternoon, kinda like an ole hound dog just a lolygaggin' up a hill, not like a beaver shootin' to the top of the pond to grab air. In the final half hour of tradin' today I ciphered that we'd see a drop of the stock, more like a turtle plopping off a log rather than a lightnin' bolt shootin' all the way down into the canyon. Next Monday those ole short-seller boys're gonna be up to plenty mischief if they have shares available (kinda like the fellers down the road when they get to drinkin' moonshine), but sheriff's wise to them and I 'spect him and the boys will clean up the mess by mid-week and have them spit-polishin' the sheriff's truck by Friday. Good 'nuff?

 

[brian45011]

Sure, the point was more is he valuable enough to tesla to warrant a 5mil comp package - and stick around long enough for it to vest - in the instance that the merger fails?

That package was a combination of RSUs and options. Check the form 4s on the structure of Jason Wheeler's package.

The $5 million is stock based compensation so it's backed out in non-GAAP and may not even hit GAAP this quarter since he starts in late October. Branderiz and Zanoni seem to have comparable resumes.

 

[austinEV]

You're a wanting specifics, eh? Well, here's goes. Tesla today was supposed to do a slow increase in the afternoon, kinda like an ole hound dog just a lolygaggin' up a hill, not like a beaver shootin' to the top of the pond to grab air. In the final half hour of tradin' today I ciphered that we'd see a drop of the stock, more like a turtle plopping off a log rather than a lightnin' bolt shootin' all the way down into the canyon. Next Monday those ole short-seller boys're gonna be up to plenty mischief if they have shares available (kinda like the fellers down the road when they get to drinkin' moonshine), but sheriff's wise to them and I 'spect him and the boys will clean up the mess by mid-week and have them spit-polishin' the sheriff's truck by Friday. Good 'nuff?

Could not be clearer, thanks.

 

[andrewt3000]

Corner cases have nothing to do with Tesla's decision to emphasize radar over cameras. The problem with cameras is that they can't always "see". Through snow, or rain, at night or with glare (which is the problem they had in Texas). Tesla's current solution has a weakness. What happens when there's a truck broken down under a sign that you're programmed to ignore?

Corner cases do present an extremely high hurdle for deep learning. Elon specifically mentioned that problem when he talked about the reasons he didn't believe that it's possible for Hotz to beat Tesla's system, What do you you do if you have a choice between driving off the road and running over a small child? How many miles do you need to have the situation present itself enough times for the system to learn the desired behavior? That doesn't even seem like an extremely rare corner case, but have you ever been confronted with that choice? What about if going off the road means going off a cliff?

I agree, glare is a big problem and reason for the radar.. I consider that a corner case.

What is your source for Elon saying corner cases are a problem for Hotz's system?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Thanks Jesse. Don't be a stranger

I'll try. Just had a kid so he is occupying some of my time.

 

[TMSE]

These delivery numbers are actually super significant.(even more than usual)

Fundamentally, it represents the first quarter of Model X ramp up. This is synonymous with the Model S in Q1 2013. Check the stock price for how that turned out.

Technically, as mentioned above, it could be the catalyst of a breakout since we are so close to major levels. The stock has been mired in negative headlines for a few weeks now. There is a crisis of confidence as Wall st does not believe what Tesla says it will do. This started from disbelief over pulling in the 500k goal to 2018, and has seeped into questions over the motives behind the SCTY deal. People are doubting Tesla's words. This directly impacts share price as so much of the valuation is based on what people think/what Tesla says it will do in the future. There is only one cure for this: execution, and that is what delivery numbers represent.
.....
.....

What is most important is still these delivery numbers though, as they are most material to the business. A positive number would turn the tide of doubt surrounding the company and generate confidence in the business, which would make the eventual due diligence around SCTY more believable, and extend to the Gigafactory opening which will undoubtedly revolve around more talk of the future. A change in sentiment that can be sustained over the next few months from all thats coming up. While a negative number would only feed into and reinforce the negative narrative that recently has been so prevalent.

Jesse,
I am quoting your almost 3-month-old post, as it is relevant now as it was back then. Execution matters much more than anything else for Tesla.

It looks like Q3 is going to be a blowout quarter as for deliveries. Many of us, including me, think that there is also a very good chance of GAAP profit for this quarter. Do you have any estimates? How will market will react to different outcomes, like good deliveries, GAAP profits, etc? Thanks.

 

[andrewt3000]

Thanks for the article. Nicely written. Do you have a timeline on AP 2.0 release?

The closest hint I have seen from Elon is during the re-code interview where he said Tesla is going to do the obvious thing and have an event towards the end of the year.

I don't have a timeline. I have assumed the same thing as you... near the end of the year. But I will add this... If Tesla is planning to use NVidia instead of Mobile Eye... it's worth noting they have had a several new products come out and they have had supply issues. So that may be a factor.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'll try. Just had a kid so he is occupying some of my time.

Congrats!

 

[Näky]

Here in Finland we have more steel roofing on common two slope pitched roofs. Our local startup glues their flexible solarpanels to steel roofing profiles. Simplest construction for solar roof that I've seen before. Should also be winter proof.
Company site: www.virtesolar.fi

Been lurking here for few years, luckily my bad English writing skills effectively prevents participation.

 

[Fallenone]

I'll try. Just had a kid so he is occupying some of my time.

Congrats!

 

[Intl Professor]

The idea of an electric car was not new. Tesla however, showed the world that you can in fact build a compelling EV for a reasonable price, and with the 3Q16 results is about to show you can do it profitably.

They've already proved profitable for one quarter already, if I remember correctly. I bought in as soon as I could on the range of the roadster which I continue to believe is the major breakthrough for Tesla and with TE and the giga-factory there is bound to be more to come.

I also invested in SCTY, sometimes wrongly. When I called them they took a look at a computer and said it was not worth it because we had so much shade which is really welcome in Sacramento so I dropped the idea.

Subsequently I thought about the garage. What if there is a way to reorient the roof whose ridge line is now located in the direction where a completely wedge shaped roof, maybe including the neighbor's attached garage in the same orientation? That would be almost precisely the ideal orientation to the sun. Of course the homeowners' association would have a fit, but....What about a rotating roof, expensive of course, but these are just ideas. What about a roof with thousands of tree-like collectors with fibonacci mounted leaves as some kid designed and others are now marketing?

Stretch your imagination folks.

 

[FluxCap]

I'll try. Just had a kid so he is occupying some of my time.

Congrats, Jesse!

 

[dmckinstry]

Congrats!

Likewise.

 

[dmckinstry]

Here in Finland we have more steel roofing on common two slope pitched roofs. Our local startup glues their flexible solarpanels to steel roofing profiles. Simplest construction for solar roof that I've seen before. Should also be winter proof.
Company site: www.virtesolar.fi

Been lurking here for few years, luckily my bad English writing skills effectively prevents participation.

Don't let that stop you. I suspect your writing skills are better than 10% of the adult population in the U.S.

 

[FluxCap]

This hit the wires on my IB feed late in the afternoon. Surprisingly cogent for the MSM:

Why Investors Should Support Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Merger with SolarCity Corp (SCTY)

 

[winfield100]

As a single data point for vehicles sold/delivered/etc, Q3
Went by Rockville, Maryland,USA service center
(Gude Drive,which got missed by a tornado a few summers back by about 1/2 mile)
{10 miles from Bethesda, Md Tesla store, and about 25 miles from Washington, DC and Tysons Corner, Virginia Tesla stores}
Counted appx 51 Tesla’s.
About 2/3’s were either shrink wrapped (recent delivery) or covered with Tesla logo car covers (8 of them).
They appear to be “moving product”
Will swing by Sunday when they are supposed to be closed to see if folks are working extra.

Single data point tho

 

[kenliles]

Surprisingly cogent...

Why Investors Should Support Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Merger with SolarCity Corp (SCTY)

'Fortune quotes legendary short seller Jim Chanos as saying the deal is “crazy.” '

So Napolean (the short King) says it's crazy -
doesn't that equate to the perfect reason 'investors should support'?

 

[AlMc]

Congrats, Jesse!

Likewise.

Even though I think we need you more than your growing family I guess we will give you a pass...
But don't let it happen again

J/k....congratulations

 

[jesselivenomore]

Thanks guys!

 

[Intl Professor]

The major driver/researcher for that? Exxon.

Then didn't they or Texaco buy out Ovshinsky's company to shut down the research? He was interviewed within the last few years and lamented he couldn't do more. Wikipedia does not help me here, perhaps you can.

I got carried away with a rant on the oil companies which I may continue some other time.