Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MP3Mike]

In order to vote shares that they lent, institutions had to recall them 3 days prior to record date, as short sellers have 3 days to satisfy the recall and return shares to the lender.

Would that mean that they had to recall them 6 days ago? (Up to 3 days for the short seller to return the shares, and then 3 days after that to settle.)

 

[winfield100]

teensy bit OT

I like Barron's , especially regarding things that aren't new...like asking my Grandpa about social media ...older people tend not to like change very much....

(tiny apologies for condensing your quote)
not all us "older people" are that generic. i'm almost 70. I almost got an EV >40yrs ago (an ElCar and/or a CitiCar){and wanted PV when it was way over $100/watt} im somewhat 'bemused' by the acceleration of rate of change
i could tho, use a USB (virus free!) offline memory stick for my neckport additional memory with the brainjack

 

[Seesaw]

In order to vote shares that they lent, institutions had to recall them 3 days prior to record date, as short sellers have 3 days to satisfy the recall and return shares to the lender.

It would be interesting to see if the institutions that supported the merger actually ended recalling shares - there didn't really seem to be a big share price run up to suggest much recalling happened.

 

[racer26]

In order to vote shares that they lent, institutions had to recall them 3 days prior to record date, as short sellers have 3 days to satisfy the recall and return shares to the lender.

Doesn't that still require that the short did in fact return the shares to the recalling lender as well? If they defaulted on the recall, the lender still doesn't get to vote.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'm trying to confirm, but I don't think the record date set be set more than 60 days in advance of the vote. I don't understand how they can set this date without knowing the extent of the SEC's comments and how long that process will take. Curious indeed.

I am taking another look at the response I got. The question and response are below. I've sent another e-mail with the request for clarification.

My question:
Could you provide an update on the record date for the SCTY acquisition?

JE response:
Today

My request for clarification:
Could you please clarify: the record date is today or the update will be published today?

 

[tander]

teensy bit OT

(tiny apologies for condensing your quote)
not all us "older people" are that generic. i'm almost 70. I almost got an EV >40yrs ago (an ElCar and/or a CitiCar){and wanted PV when it was way over $100/watt} im somewhat 'bemused' by the acceleration of rate of change
i could tho, use a USB (virus free!) offline memory stick for my neckport additional memory with the brainjack

Yeah I'm sorry to generalize. I was thinking more about my Grandpa who is 93 (so you've got a long time till you're "old"!) and while I remember he had a cell phone very early on and was often an early adopter (still is for medical procedures), he dropped out of the tech stuff before iPhones came on the scene. His pacemaker is pretty impressive though.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am taking another look at the response I got. The question and response are below. I've sent another e-mail with the request for clarification.

My question:
Could you provide an update on the record date for the SCTY acquisition?

JE response:
Today

My request for clarification:
Could you please clarify: the record date is today or the update will be published today?

I'm thinking it's the latter. We'll hear more about the record date later today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Doesn't that still require that the short did in fact return the shares to the recalling lender as well? If they defaulted on the recall, the lender still doesn't get to vote.

Yes, I was implying that shares indeed got returned within three days. It is absolutely true that it is possible that a short seller might default.

 

[MitchJi]

The assumption is that sudden availability of millions of shares for shorting will result in precipitous drop in SP. I would be on a watch-out for this on Monday, especially if interest for borrowing TSLA shares plummets in pre-market trading.

Depends on the number of shares that were recalled. If the shares that were recalled contributed to the recent rise I'd expect a little bit less of a decline.

Can we all agree that the recall squeeze has been a bust? Right now it looks like Elon's solar roof tweet had a bigger impact.

 

[Seesaw]

Yeah looks like the update will be today, not the record date.

 

[racer26]

Also of interest. The 8-K filed by TSLA about hiring the SunPower CAO says he starts Oct 24. Product announcement Oct 28. Interesting timing.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I am taking another look at the response I got. The question and response are below. I've sent another e-mail with the request for clarification.

My question:
Could you provide an update on the record date for the SCTY acquisition?

JE response:
Today

My request for clarification:
Could you please clarify: the record date is today or the update will be published today?

Got response from Jeff Evanson:

"THE DATE IS TODAY"

 

[rallykeeper]

I'm trying to confirm, but I don't think the record date set be set more than 60 days in advance of the vote. I don't understand how they can set this date without knowing the extent of the SEC's comments and how long that process will take. Curious indeed.

Confirmed on 60 days (it's in the Tesla bylaws).

They must believe they will be able to finalize and mail by no later than the second week of October -- usually, you'd allow at least 4 weeks from mail to meeting date.

They may already know if they have comments. SEC could have delivered them orally and then Tesla would respond with an EDGAR filing and the appropriate amendments. Even if not, they may know that comments will arrive soon (not least of which because the staff typically delivers comments within 30 days of initial filing). Finally, SCTY and TSLA are represented by literally the two best M&A/Securities law firms in the country -- if not the world. They will not have insurmountable comments.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Got response from Jeff Evanson:

"THE DATE IS TODAY"

Okay, that clarified it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Depends on the number of shares that were recalled. If the shares that were recalled contributed to the recent rise I'd expect a little bit less of a decline.

Can we all agree that the recall squeeze has been a bust? Right now it looks like Elon's solar roof tweet had a bigger impact.

Agreeing on the obvious.

If shares are available for shorting, all at once on Monday, I believe there will be likelihood for the larger drop than rise due to gradual covering, but ultimately, nothing is certain.

 

[Intl Professor]

i could tho, use a USB (virus free!) offline memory stick for my neckport additional memory with the brainjack

Me too, I just turned 80.

 

[mmd]

If today is the record date, is it a good idea to go short or buy puts today?
FYI, I'm seeing an estimated borrow rate of 21% in Etrade when I preview a short sell order. Nothing close to 107% reported earlier. Anyone else seeing something similar?

Estimated Borrow Rate: 21.00%

 

[Papafox]

Some thoughts on trading today:
* At present, some shorts who were notified of recall 3 days ago may be covering, thus some upward pressure at moment
* If shorts are expected to enter new positions on Monday with fairly large numbers, there will be downward pressure on Monday, which might mean downward pressure during the final 30 minutes of trading today
* Some longs are waiting for record date, for shorts reentering to drop SP a bit and then they start buying

Thus, maybe we see up, down, down, up, with the second down and second up taking place next week

 

[esk8mw]

Confirmed on 60 days (it's in the Tesla bylaws).

They must believe they will be able to finalize and mail by no later than the second week of October -- usually, you'd allow at least 4 weeks from mail to meeting date.

They may already know if they have comments. SEC could have delivered them orally and then Tesla would respond with an EDGAR filing and the appropriate amendments. Even if not, they may know that comments will arrive soon (not least of which because the staff typically delivers comments within 30 days of initial filing). Finally, SCTY and TSLA are represented by literally the two best M&A/Securities law firms in the country -- if not the world. They will not have insurmountable comments.

Agree on pretty much all points and thanks for the assist on the bylaws. In my experience the letter always accompanies the call from the SEC, so I'd be very surprised if the actual substantive comments were delivered orally. My current theory is that the SEC called and let them know that the comments would be light - so they feel good about setting the record date.

It's also an indication that they will not be pushing back very hard on the SEC's comments. If you accept all the comments at face value and do your best to fully respond you can sometimes get out in 2 rounds - initial comments, company response, SEC response with some cleanups, company response, final SEC letter indicating no more comments. There's like 7-14 days between each of those steps, which is why I was so surprised to see a record date today.

 

[austinEV]

Some thoughts on trading today:
* At present, some shorts who were notified of recall 3 days ago may be covering, thus some upward pressure at moment
* If shorts are expected to enter new positions on Monday with fairly large numbers, there will be downward pressure on Monday, which might mean downward pressure during the final 30 minutes of trading today
* Some longs are waiting for record date, for shorts reentering to drop SP a bit and then they start buying

Thus, maybe we see up, down, down, up, with the second down and second up taking place next week

I am going to need exact times and prices on those so I can trade them perfectly.