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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Ok, so drawing from the collective TMC wisdom, reports and analysis, I think it is safe to say Q3 will be great, and Tesla has a higher chance of showing profit this quarter than not. Let's just hope this does not come at the expense of Q4. Meeting at least the bottom of 2016 guidance would be very important to show this level of demand, production and deliveries is sustainable.
 
I'm really not that experienced with M&A, and I found this case study by a couple professors to be helpful and I thought I would share. I quoted some bits that were interesting below. I understand this TSLA/SCTY deal isn't your "average" deal. I didn't read the entire thing. They examined 2,205 offers over the 1990 to 2005 period:
http://www1.american.edu/academic.depts/ksb/finance_realestate/rhauswald/seminar/vote_American.pdf

..Kahn and Winton (1998) and Maug (1998) model trade-offs faced by institutional investors between selling their shares and intervening management poor decisions. In addition, although institutional investors at target firms might specialize in monitoring, Hsieh and Walkling (2005) present evidence that they tend to sell their shares to merger arbitrageurs after the deal is publicly announced..
..No-vote stock deals have a 91% success rate, compared with 83% for deals requiring votes..
..The evidence that proxy proposals usually receive high approval rates (Burch, Morgan, and Wolf (2004) and Ashraf and Jayaraman (2007)) implies that this might not be the case. Parrino, Sias, and Starks (2003) and Admati and Pfleiderer (2006) further show that institutional investors tend to take the “Wall Street walk” when they are dissatisfied with management decisions..
..The first column of Panel A reveals the summary statistics for all of the deals in our sample. As shown in the column, most offers are friendly (92%) and completed successfully (83%)..
..Finally, since many institutional investors cross-hold both target and bidder stocks, they may vote for the merger even if acquirer shareholder interests are not well served (Matvos and Ostrovsky (2008))..
..We show that acquisitions without acquirer shareholder approval are associated with lower synergistic gains, both in percentage and dollar values..
..In addition, models 7 to 12 show that stock offers experience improvement in operating performance when they are voted by acquirer shareholders..
 
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VIN 219XX Model X in production as of yesterday, reported here:
Tracking Highest Assigned VINs of the Tesla Model X. | Page 15 | Tesla Motors

VIN 205XX out of production and in delivery mode as of yesterday, reported here:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1746442/

Totally anecdotal info, possibly lots of data gaps, but one week before the end of of June, VIN 4936, 58XX, 58XX, 7334, 73XX, 88XX and were being delivered, links to some below:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1595812/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1597621/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1597727/

Q2 shareholder letter said 4,638 delivered Q2, Q1 shareholder letter said 2,659 produced Q1, 507 produced Q4. So it seems like we could piece together that 7,000+ total were delivered before the end of Q2.

Not knowing if Tesla is skipping VINs, and not knowing how many 4XXX-8XXX were still to be delivered after the close of Q2, I'd imagine a target for Model X deliveries in Q3 will be around 12,000. My logic is at least 10,000 delivered between VIN 9000 and 20,000 and then perhaps a thousand on either side of that.

Makes me see a total Q2 delivery floor of 24,000 and an imaginable ceiling of 27,000.

Well. 4638 in Q2, 2659 in Q1 and 507 in Q4. That's 7,804 MX we can say were delivered before the start of Q3. Lets call it 8,000 to err on the side of caution for a Q3 number.

If we trust the poster that said that 219XX went into production yesterday, thats nearly 22k. Lets say -2k for ones that will not make it to the customer by Sep30. (I don't think you can realistically deliver a car produced in the final two weeks of a quarter within that quarter)

20k-8k = 12k MX. Perhaps theres 1-2k VINs skipped or otherwise not delivered in there. 10k. I expect over 10k MX deliveries in 3Q16.

Tracking highest VINs | Page 50 | Tesla Motors

That thread suggests that MS VINs were being issued at around 150k at the end of Q2, and that 147k was delivered right in the tail end of Q2.

Model S Order & Delivery 2016

There have been at least a few delivered from the 161k set. 161 - 147 = 14k.

More evidence that we'll see at least 24k. I still think my expectation is 26-28k - since this doesn't account for the firesale on inventory cars produced before Q3.
 
Well. 4638 in Q2, 2659 in Q1 and 507 in Q4. That's 7,804 MX we can say were delivered before the start of Q3. Lets call it 8,000 to err on the side of caution for a Q3 number.

If we trust the poster that said that 219XX went into production yesterday, thats nearly 22k. Lets say -2k for ones that will not make it to the customer by Sep30. (I don't think you can realistically deliver a car produced in the final two weeks of a quarter within that quarter)

20k-8k = 12k MX. Perhaps theres 1-2k VINs skipped or otherwise not delivered in there. 10k. I expect over 10k MX deliveries in 3Q16.

Tracking highest VINs | Page 50 | Tesla Motors

That thread suggests that MS VINs were being issued at around 150k at the end of Q2, and that 147k was delivered right in the tail end of Q2.

Model S Order & Delivery 2016

There have been at least a few delivered from the 161k set. 161 - 147 = 14k.

More evidence that we'll see at least 24k. I still think my expectation is 26-28k - since this doesn't account for the firesale on inventory cars produced before Q3.

24k seems doable especially if you throw in the unusually high transit number from end of Q2, but if you are accounting for 1-2k VINs skipped for the MX, then shouldn't you do the same calculation for MS deliveries?
 
UBS asked if lux buyers want lux, and they said they want lux. We know.

In a few years, Tesla will either get more lux or lower the price or expectations of the lux buyers. We know.

More FUD.

I guess the dead giveaway is that UBS said Tesla wants to sell Model 3 at a loss, and there's no demand for Tesla Energy batteries. hahahahahaha wow ... why would anyone ever print such a thing?
 
UBS asked if lux buyers want lux, and they said they want lux. We know.

In a few years, Tesla will either get more lux or lower the price or expectations of the lux buyers. We know.

More FUD.

I guess the dead giveaway is that UBS said Tesla wants to sell Model 3 at a loss, and there's no demand for Tesla Energy batteries. hahahahahaha wow ... why would anyone ever print such a thing?

Wasn't their price target 130 or 140/ share?
 
UBS asked if lux buyers want lux, and they said they want lux. We know.

In a few years, Tesla will either get more lux or lower the price or expectations of the lux buyers. We know.

More FUD.

I guess the dead giveaway is that UBS said Tesla wants to sell Model 3 at a loss, and there's no demand for Tesla Energy batteries. hahahahahaha wow ... why would anyone ever print such a thing?
Of course it was FUD. I found it remarkable that 30% picked tesla over all the other companies combined. Imagine tesla with a 30% market share especially as they introduce model3. This was not 30% of electric market but entire market
 
Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Biggest Win in 2016 So Far -- The Motley Fool
<Snip>
Tesla investors should already be familiar with CEO Elon Musk's original "secret master plan," first published in 2006.

In it, Musk explained that electric cars were just a temporary business plan. These vehicles, starting with a pricey roadster and then expanding to lower-cost but higher-volume productions, would simply raise capital and generally pave the way toward a larger ambition:

[The] overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.
So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car

Use that money to build an affordable car

Use that money to build an even more affordable car

While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

So, if you thought Tesla's long-term aim was to beat Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM)and Ford (NYSE:F) at their own vehicular production game, you're missing the point. Tesla only wants to sell enough cars to be able to finance the next stage of a global energy makeover.

The cars had to be excellent, in order to encourage the likes of Ford and Toyota to follow suit into a gas-less transportation model. But dominating the car market was never the end game, here.

The new plan
A decade later, Musk revisited the old not-very-secret plan and sketched out the second stage.

"The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good," Musk wrote. "That's what 'sustainable' means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone."

The first stage was described as close to completion. The last step of stage one would presumably be the launch of the reasonably affordable Tesla Model 3 in 2017. That's the high-volume passenger car that will carry the rest of Tesla's electric ambitions -- arguably to the end of the line. To wit:

"A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below."

Sticking with Elon's presentation format, here's Tesla's "master plan, part deux " in a nutshell:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Tesla investors should already be familiar with CEO Elon Musk's original "secret master plan," first published in 2006.

In it, Musk explained that electric cars were just a temporary business plan. These vehicles, starting with a pricey roadster and then expanding to lower-cost but higher-volume productions, would simply raise capital and generally pave the way toward a larger ambition:

[The] overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.
So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car

Use that money to build an affordable car


Use that money to build an even more affordable car

While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

So, if you thought Tesla's long-term aim was to beat Toyota Motors (NYSE:TM)and Ford (NYSE:F) at their own vehicular production game, you're missing the point. Tesla only wants to sell enough cars to be able to finance the next stage of a global energy makeover.

The cars had to be excellent, in order to encourage the likes of Ford and Toyota to follow suit into a gas-less transportation model. But dominating the car market was never the end game, here.

The new plan
A decade later, Musk revisited the old not-very-secret plan and sketched out the second stage.

"The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good," Musk wrote. "That's what 'sustainable' means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone."

The first stage was described as close to completion. The last step of stage one would presumably be the launch of the reasonably affordable Tesla Model 3 in 2017. That's the high-volume passenger car that will carry the rest of Tesla's electric ambitions -- arguably to the end of the line. To wit:

"A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below."

Sticking with Elon's presentation format, here's Tesla's "master plan, part deux " in a nutshell:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

There's nothing in there about developing even cheaper passenger cars under the Tesla brand. Instead, Musk wants to extend his electric transportation designs to new markets such as buses and heavy-duty trucks. Both are already in development, and Tesla should present its first efforts in 2017.


Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

There's nothing in there about developing even cheaper passenger cars under the Tesla brand. Instead, Musk wants to extend his electric transportation designs to new markets such as buses and heavy-duty trucks. Both are already in development, and Tesla should present its first efforts in 2017.
<Snip>

<Snip>
The big takeaway

Musk may be dreaming big, but he's also bringing a practical approach to this huge vision. How many entrepreneurs have built a 30-year plan to explore other worlds, complete with in-house rocketry and a worldwide power revolution along the way?

Better battery technologies are coming, and Tesla should be prepared to tap into this important research. The so-called Gigafactory is only one small step toward a more robust energy storage infrastructure.

Meanwhile, car makers in Detroit and Japan are taking Tesla's bait. Ford is spending $4.5 billion to come up with 13 "electrified vehicles" by the year 2020. Toyota doesn't like heavy batteries, but it's putting its back into electric vehicles powered by fuel cells instead. Nearly every major car company is exploring both electric drivetrains and self-driving platforms.

You may call that trend a threat to Tesla's car sales, but you'd be missing the point.

This is exactly what Elon Musk wanted to happen all along. It's not about muscling out the Corolla and the F-150, but about changing the way American and the world think about vehicles. And then the oil wells can dry up, because we won't need them anymore.
Someone in the media gets it.
 
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'Fortune quotes legendary short seller Jim Chanos as saying the deal is “crazy.” '

So Napolean (the short King) says it's crazy -
doesn't that equate to the perfect reason 'investors should support'?
You should wonder why Chanos is so sure that tesla will fail that he does so much PR on it. If they are going to fail he would keep quiet and not crowd the short trade with publicity. His endless interviews are designed to attempt to make it happen
 
A Field Guide to Tesla Short Sellers

A few days ago a member of this forum asked why a short would enter a new position when Tesla’s stock price is barely above 200. To anticipate the behavior of short sellers, one needs to understand the various flavors of Tesla shorts. Thus, this guide.

Successful Shorts
Longs need to keep in mind that skillful shorting can lead to profits and that some shorts have made money from Tesla multiple times. The key to making money is the same as with longs, which is to buy low and sell high, but with shorts the order of buying and selling is reversed. For the past two years, Tesla has been rather range-bound. Longs who have bought below $200 have not had long to wait before they’re in the money and shorts who sold-into new positions above $250 have enjoyed similar success. One big difference between longs and shorts, however, is that shorts pay interest to maintain their position, and thus the success of a short depends not only upon the entry price and the trajectory of the stock price, but also upon the interest rate paid. Both longs and shorts need to be aware that Tesla will inevitably depart its range-bound ways in time: either through a severe drop or a breathtaking rise.

The Two-headed Short
This anatomical oddity is actual found quite often in the wild. A two-headed short is one who holds short positions in both Tesla and SolarCity. The reasons for holding short positions in both companies are similar to the reasons why many longs hold positions in both: these stocks are volatile growth stocks with lots of profit potential and both are ultimately controlled by Elon Musk. Whereas longs see Musk as a visionary, two-headed shorts see him as P.T. Barnum reincarnated. Some longs wonder why shorts would criticize Tesla’s proposed merger with SolarCity. Wouldn’t it make more sense for shorts to encourage the union if they believe SolarCity will drag Tesla down? The answer is that the critics of the merger are typically two-headed shorts who do not want the merger to take place. They perceive a high chance of immense profits if SolarCity is left to stand (or fail) on its own. Criticising the merger not only supports the goal of a stand-along SCTY, it also provides fear about both companies and can result in lower short-term stock prices for both.

Shorts with Malice
These shorts have an axe to grind. Rather than purely speculating on the price of Tesla stock, they wish to actually influence the stock price. Since stock price affects the ability to acquire capital for Tesla, shorts with malice hope to speed up the demise of Tesla or at least slow its success. Tools include FUD in the media, general short-selling (which artificially depresses the stock price) and strategic short selling (big sales when a TSLA climb shows a moment of indecision, big sales to induce a drop, sales during low-volume trading hours to maximize price drop, and sales that cause TSLA SP to close either a fraction of a point below the green or below an important milestone such as 50 DMA, 200DMA, etc.). Mark Twain once remarked, “Everyone’s always talking about the weather, but nobody ever actually does something about it.” Shorts with Malice, don’t just short TSLA, they do something about it.

Two-headed Shorts with Malice
This short is of course a hybrid of the previous two types. What really stirs up the malice in these shorts is the feeling that Elon Musk personally picked their pockets when he disrupted their successful short at SolarCity and proposed the merger with Tesla. Boom, just like that, they were poorer. One example of a two-headed short with malice is Jim Chanos, whose well-publicized rants on Tesla and SolarCity most definitely affect the price of TSLA.

The “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Shorts
These shorts are convinced that Tesla is going to the corporate boneyard, it’s just a matter of time. After all, haven’t all U.S. car companies except for Ford and Tesla gone bankrupt in the past and isn’t it true that every other auto company founded within the past hundred years has gone out of business? The acquisition of SolarCity makes these shorts positively giddy when they contemplate the possibilities. Why consider normal trading ranges for TSLA when they’re convinced it’s goint to zero? What the “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” shorts have correct is that the game ends with one party going bankrupt, but that someone (unbeknowst to them) may not be Tesla.

The Two-headed “‘Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Short with Malice
No need to explain, you have the idea. What’s interesting is that traders such as Chanos are not in this group. Once the Chanos type of trader has established a short position, they will let other potential shorts know of their position so that they short the stock too and drive its price further down. Chanos will be smart enough to get out of Tesla when it’s upward trajectory become all too clear and he doesn’t want his losses to go any higher, but he won’t let other shorts know of his plans until he is already out. The purpose of the small-time shorts is to support an established short position by the smarter short and to be left holding the bag while the smart shorts exit their positions.
 
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A Field Guide to Tesla Short Sellers

A few days ago a member of this forum asked why a short would enter a new position when Tesla’s stock price is barely above 200. To anticipate the behavior of short sellers, one needs to understand the various flavors of Tesla shorts. Thus, this guide.

Successful Shorts
Longs need to keep in mind that skillful shorting can lead to profits and that some shorts have made money from Tesla multiple times. The key to making money is the same as with longs, which is to buy low and sell high, but with shorts the order of buying and selling is reversed. For the past two years, Tesla has been rather range-bound. Longs who have bought below $200 have not had long to wait before they’re in the money and shorts who sold-into new positions above $250 have enjoyed similar success. One big difference between longs and shorts, however, is that shorts pay interest to maintain their position, and thus the success of a short depends not only upon the entry price and the trajectory of the stock price, but also upon the interest rate paid. Both longs and shorts need to be aware that Tesla will inevitably depart its range-bound ways in time: either through a severe drop or a breathtaking rise.

The Two-headed Short
This anatomical oddity is actual found quite often in the wild. A two-headed short is one who holds short positions in both Tesla and SolarCity. The reasons for holding short positions in both companies are similar to the reasons why many longs hold positions in both: these stocks are volatile growth stocks with lots of profit potential and both are ultimately controlled by Elon Musk. Whereas longs see Musk as a visionary, two-headed shorts see him as P.T. Barnum reincarnated. Some longs wonder why shorts would criticize Tesla’s proposed merger with SolarCity. Wouldn’t it make more sense for shorts to encourage the union if they believe SolarCity will drag Tesla down? The answer is that the critics of the merger are typically two-headed shorts who do not want the merger to take place. They perceive a high chance of immense profits if SolarCity is left to stand (or fail) on its own. Criticising the merger not only supports the goal of a stand-along SCTY, it also provides fear about both companies and can result in lower short-term stock prices for both.

Shorts with Malice
These shorts have an axe to grind. Rather than purely speculating on the price of Tesla stock, they wish to actually influence the stock price. Since stock price affects the ability to acquire capital for Tesla, shorts with malice hope to speed up the demise of Tesla or at least slow its success. Tools include FUD in the media, general short-selling (which artificially depresses the stock price) and strategic short selling (big sales when a TSLA climb shows a moment of indecision, big sales to induce a drop, sales during low-volume trading hours to maximize price drop, and sales that cause TSLA SP to close either a fraction of a point below the green or below an important milestone such as 50 DMA, 200DMA, etc.). Mark Twain once remarked, “Everyone’s always talking about the weather, but nobody ever actually does something about it.” Shorts with Malice, don’t just short TSLA, they do something about it.

Two-headed Shorts with Malice
This short is of course a hybrid of the previous two types. What really stirs up the malice in these shorts is the feeling that Elon Musk personally picked their pockets when he disrupted their successful short at SolarCity and proposed the merger with Tesla. Boom, just like that, they were poorer. One example of a two-headed short with malice is Jim Chanos, whose well-publicized rants on Tesla and SolarCity most definitely affect the price of TSLA.

The “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Shorts
These shorts are convinced that Tesla is going to the corporate boneyard, it’s just a matter of time. After all, haven’t all U.S. car companies except for Ford and Tesla gone bankrupt in the past and isn’t it true that every other auto company founded within the past hundred years has gone out of business? The acquisition of SolarCity makes these shorts positively giddy when they contemplate the possibilities. Why consider normal trading ranges for TSLA when they’re convinced it’s goint to zero? What the “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” shorts have correct is that the game ends with one party going bankrupt, but that someone (unbeknowst to them) may not be Tesla.

The Two-headed “‘Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Short with Malice
No need to explain, you have the idea. What’s interesting is that traders such as Chanos are not in this group. Once the Chanos type of trader has established a short position, they will let other potential shorts know of their position so that they short the stock too and drive its price further down. Chanos will be smart enough to get out of Tesla when it’s upward trajectory become all too clear and he doesn’t want his losses to go any higher, but he won’t let other shorts know of his plans until he is already out. The purpose of the small-time shorts is to support an established short position by the smarter short and to be left holding the bag while the smart shorts exit their positions.

This is great!

By analogy, some longs might fall into the category of the two headed "til Tesla reaches 1trillion market cap" long with good will...
 
Intersting observations on inventory situation from the Model S forum

I believe Tesla sold off a big chunk of their inventory too. When I was in the Portland Service Center a few weeks ago one of the people there told me they used to have 20 loaners, but they were down to 10 because the sales people were selling them off. And this was before the big discounts started showing up.

Tesla was awash with inventory back in June because the first round of leases were all coming back. I was at the SC in early June and there were used Teslas tucked into every corner, as well as a lot of brand new ones. The delivery specialist said most were lease returns.

I think there has been a push on this year to sell off as much inventory as possible. The FUDs like Bob Lutz like to point to Tesla's inventory and say they are in trouble because they are building a lot more cars than they sell. Tesla needs some inventory for test drives and showroom cars, plus they are taking in cars in trade every day. Of course they are going to have some inventory and that will grow as the company grows (more showrooms, more cars needed for those showrooms).

The push is on to make Tesla's bottom line look as good as possible for the end of quarter because they need to raise money to finish the M3. The better things look at the end of Q3, the more the stock price will rise and the less stock they have to sell to raise what they need.

I've been saying for some time if Tesla lowered their prices by just $10K they would see a big sales spike. It looks like they tried it with their inventory cars and it worked.
 
^
Maybe a silly question, but once a lease is up and assuming the vehicle is returned to Tesla, if it is leased again or sold does this count as a delivery? (again? - if leases count as deliveries in the first place) TIA
This might not be a large number of vehicles but if true delivery numbers would eventually surpass production.

I think we're in for an exciting month or two!
 
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A Field Guide to Tesla Short Sellers

A few days ago a member of this forum asked why a short would enter a new position when Tesla’s stock price is barely above 200. To anticipate the behavior of short sellers, one needs to understand the various flavors of Tesla shorts. Thus, this guide.

Successful Shorts
Longs need to keep in mind that skillful shorting can lead to profits and that some shorts have made money from Tesla multiple times. The key to making money is the same as with longs, which is to buy low and sell high, but with shorts the order of buying and selling is reversed. For the past two years, Tesla has been rather range-bound. Longs who have bought below $200 have not had long to wait before they’re in the money and shorts who sold-into new positions above $250 have enjoyed similar success. One big difference between longs and shorts, however, is that shorts pay interest to maintain their position, and thus the success of a short depends not only upon the entry price and the trajectory of the stock price, but also upon the interest rate paid. Both longs and shorts need to be aware that Tesla will inevitably depart its range-bound ways in time: either through a severe drop or a breathtaking rise.

The Two-headed Short
This anatomical oddity is actual found quite often in the wild. A two-headed short is one who holds short positions in both Tesla and SolarCity. The reasons for holding short positions in both companies are similar to the reasons why many longs hold positions in both: these stocks are volatile growth stocks with lots of profit potential and both are ultimately controlled by Elon Musk. Whereas longs see Musk as a visionary, two-headed shorts see him as P.T. Barnum reincarnated. Some longs wonder why shorts would criticize Tesla’s proposed merger with SolarCity. Wouldn’t it make more sense for shorts to encourage the union if they believe SolarCity will drag Tesla down? The answer is that the critics of the merger are typically two-headed shorts who do not want the merger to take place. They perceive a high chance of immense profits if SolarCity is left to stand (or fail) on its own. Criticising the merger not only supports the goal of a stand-along SCTY, it also provides fear about both companies and can result in lower short-term stock prices for both.

Shorts with Malice
These shorts have an axe to grind. Rather than purely speculating on the price of Tesla stock, they wish to actually influence the stock price. Since stock price affects the ability to acquire capital for Tesla, shorts with malice hope to speed up the demise of Tesla or at least slow its success. Tools include FUD in the media, general short-selling (which artificially depresses the stock price) and strategic short selling (big sales when a TSLA climb shows a moment of indecision, big sales to induce a drop, sales during low-volume trading hours to maximize price drop, and sales that cause TSLA SP to close either a fraction of a point below the green or below an important milestone such as 50 DMA, 200DMA, etc.). Mark Twain once remarked, “Everyone’s always talking about the weather, but nobody ever actually does something about it.” Shorts with Malice, don’t just short TSLA, they do something about it.

Two-headed Shorts with Malice
This short is of course a hybrid of the previous two types. What really stirs up the malice in these shorts is the feeling that Elon Musk personally picked their pockets when he disrupted their successful short at SolarCity and proposed the merger with Tesla. Boom, just like that, they were poorer. One example of a two-headed short with malice is Jim Chanos, whose well-publicized rants on Tesla and SolarCity most definitely affect the price of TSLA.

The “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Shorts
These shorts are convinced that Tesla is going to the corporate boneyard, it’s just a matter of time. After all, haven’t all U.S. car companies except for Ford and Tesla gone bankrupt in the past and isn’t it true that every other auto company founded within the past hundred years has gone out of business? The acquisition of SolarCity makes these shorts positively giddy when they contemplate the possibilities. Why consider normal trading ranges for TSLA when they’re convinced it’s goint to zero? What the “Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” shorts have correct is that the game ends with one party going bankrupt, but that someone (unbeknowst to them) may not be Tesla.

The Two-headed “‘Til Bankruptcy Do We Part” Short with Malice
No need to explain, you have the idea. What’s interesting is that traders such as Chanos are not in this group. Once the Chanos type of trader has established a short position, they will let other potential shorts know of their position so that they short the stock too and drive its price further down. Chanos will be smart enough to get out of Tesla when it’s upward trajectory become all too clear and he doesn’t want his losses to go any higher, but he won’t let other shorts know of his plans until he is already out. The purpose of the small-time shorts is to support an established short position by the smarter short and to be left holding the bag while the smart shorts exit their positions.
I wonder what % fall into each category. I charted the % of short interest over the last five years and it looked like it hasn't dipped below 20% since before the s was introduced except maybe for very short periods that didn't show up. This isn't necessarily the case but I wonder if the bulk of short % is the till bankruptcy group that have been holding these positions for years, just kind of hard to believe that anyone still thinks Tesla is on the brink of bankruptcy or something. That's like looking at Michael Jordan in his rookie years and saying that he'll get fired anytime now.
 
Well. 4638 in Q2, 2659 in Q1 and 507 in Q4. That's 7,804 MX we can say were delivered before the start of Q3. Lets call it 8,000 to err on the side of caution for a Q3 number.

If we trust the poster that said that 219XX went into production yesterday, thats nearly 22k. Lets say -2k for ones that will not make it to the customer by Sep30. (I don't think you can realistically deliver a car produced in the final two weeks of a quarter within that quarter)

20k-8k = 12k MX. Perhaps theres 1-2k VINs skipped or otherwise not delivered in there. 10k. I expect over 10k MX deliveries in 3Q16.

Tracking highest VINs | Page 50 | Tesla Motors

That thread suggests that MS VINs were being issued at around 150k at the end of Q2, and that 147k was delivered right in the tail end of Q2.

Model S Order & Delivery 2016

There have been at least a few delivered from the 161k set. 161 - 147 = 14k.

More evidence that we'll see at least 24k. I still think my expectation is 26-28k - since this doesn't account for the firesale on inventory cars produced before Q3.

Inventory cars that I looked at are all coming from the range produced inside of this Q, so I think you're optimistic with 26-28k.
I wish you were right and I was wrong, and there is chance this is the case. After so many disappointments, I'm keeping my expectations at bay...
 
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