Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Don't you get it? Mercedes game plan is to out compete the tesla of 2016 in 2025. It's a solid strategy so long as Tesla stays where it is at currently. They've already fooled so many clickbatey articles into comparing their years off concept EV cars vs today's actual tesla offerings.

Either that, or Mercedes or secretly working with Tesla to produce numerous vehicles. Dieter Zetsche famously coined the term "Tesla Inside", when speaking about the Mercedes B-Class EV.

Perhaps the deal Tesla had to power the Mercedes B-Class EV was ended, so both companies could work together on creating a new line of vehicles for mass production that people want to buy?

Maybe Mercedes is working with Tesla on a partnership, similar to what happened with the Smart car? (Swatch + Mercedes) = Smart Car.
Intel Inside Tagline Gives Way to "Tesla Inside" - Inside EVs

 

[Spidy]

I guess Mercedes doesn't realize Tesla plans to sell every type of electric vehicle including electric trucks by 2025?

 

[tander]

Agreed. If they can nail the aesthetics and cost is reasonable this could be huge. There might be a number of fair weather tesla longs on here with egg on their face in a year or two when it becomes obvious the deal at current price was a "no brainer".

"fair weather longs" I haven't heard that before, pretty funny. If it costs 20k to put panels on your existing roof, you might say naw let's wait till the price goes down. But if you need a new roof and you can get a new roof and panels and storage for 40k, I think quite a few people would say let's do it, and get some plugin cars too.

 

[bonaire]

I'm generally a believer in the idea that "price is truth" in the market. I just can't seem to fathom what I'm missing. I understand there is perceived uncertainty in the GM due to reports of discounting. Outside of that, how a beat on ambitious numbers (that no one believed was possible) does not cause a significant reaction has me flummoxed. /sigh

Compared to the old days with $20 upswings on an Adam Jonas "note" about something that didn't exist. There is collusive efforts in the offices of large trading shops that I imagine are at work (or not at work) at times. The price will be set to what they want it to be set at, it seems. They only allowed $10 upside when the large sales record was set for Q3. Because the discounting was well established, well known and could have cannibalized Q4 and also some Model 3 reservations. Now, we wait for the solar roof announcement, earnings report and elections. The elections may be the biggest catalyst because if the guy wins, risk on due to the ability to throttle down incentive programs. If the girl wins, there could be some widespread growth in incentives such as the Obama consideration of $10k per EV rebate program. Or also lifting of the 200,000 USA car sales per manufacturer. Hillary's big stump speeches now include a lot of talk of renewables and so on. Since they don't easily stand on their own, they require government incentives - similar or higher incentives than China is currently utilizing in their programs.

Would be nice to see things like:
- electric school buses used as grid storage through summer months when not in use.
- bonus incentives for single or dual axis solar trackers and/or western-facing solar positioning.
- LED lighting replacement programs.
- conservation program education.
- whatever else cuts demand.

Face it - I know my feelings are strong on conservation and "using less". but that is not going to help any economy or marketplace. But I would love to see a program that pays off EV incentives "by year of ownership". To get the $7500, you should have to drive the car a minimum of 8000 miles per year and deduct $2500 per year in use. Would work for 3-year leases and purchase. This also is a tip towards sustainability such that people are given incentives not to trade in every year. Plus, a crashed out of service in the first year EV because you were racing someone or whatever - should not pay out the full ITC to that owner. Just my opinion but it's good cash management that will really be beneficial to a true sustainability program. To our government, $7500 is like a penny to you and me. But it is something to look at if you add up a few million of them.

 

[dha]

...Because the discounting was well established, well known and could have cannibalized Q4 and also some Model 3 reservations.

Curious why you think anybody would view pulling demand forward by two years w/ higher ASP, higher margin vehicles as a negative.

 

[Turing]

Curious why you think anybody would view pulling demand forward by two years w/ higher ASP, higher margin vehicles as a negative.

This is a poster who estimated Tesla would deliver 65k cars in 2016. You will only get negative takes from him. He was also off by 2.5-3.5k in q3 delivery estimates, depending on which estimate of his you go by -- and was super concerned that a good q3 would only be at the expense of a weaker q4.

 

[adiggs]

electrical contacts. where are the electrical contacts to send the electrons to the junction box!

In the Forward Labs video, they indicate that all of the electrical wiring, electronics, etc.. are underneath the panels, in the attic. Out of the weather and out of sight. They didn't indicate in more detail what that means. (Do they drill holes in the deck and run wires from the bottom of the panels through to the attic? That's my assumption right now).

 

[Seesaw]

I'm suprised everyone is saying that the SP will actually go UP once merger is approved

 

[Turing]

I'm suprised everyone is saying that the SP will actually go UP once merger is approved

It's hard to say, imo it means Elon still runs the show has the institutional support/confidence he needs. Which is why i think tsla could drop if merger fails, for the inverse of that.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Not going to!

What Tesla did is sucked air out of the top luxury sedans marketplace, with the best 100 year old companies looking helpless as the the rookie consumes their breakfast, lunch and dinner.

The 3 series, C Class and A4 are next.

I think you'll be well advised to increase your call based hedge, the omnipresent threat of earthquakes notwithstanding.

My apologies for using wrong tense in the post above.

The first sentence should read as follows: "Tesla is sucking air out of the top luxury sedans marketplace, with the best 100 year old companies looking helpless as the the rookie continues to consume their breakfast, lunch and dinner."

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1765162/

 

[esk8mw]

Here's a random (and possibly not entirely original) thought: actual deliveries might be moderately higher than 24,500. I know Drivin just read this first line and clicked the "Funny" button, but for the rest of you read on...

First, the 1% error language - which has been in every deliveries release since forever - was notably absent. I think we can all agree, therefore, that the door is open for the 24,500 number to be off by over 1%. By the way, 1% of 24,500 is a pretty significant number when you consider how close Tesla is to profitability this quarter. Also, 24,500 is a suspiciously round number.

Second, there's new language about the deliveries count being "slightly conservative." Taken at face value, a normal reading of this language suggests that the (possibly in excess of 1%) error would be to the low side, meaning 24,500 should be a baseline.

Third, we know Elon caught wind of some OAs trying to complete paperwork before actual delivery took place and wrote a very public letter explaining that delivery + paperwork was required for a delivery to count as a delivery. I'm quite positive this contributed to the conservatism in the release.

Fourth, we know Elon vowed to "personally review" the deliveries list and for Tesla Finance to deliver a report to him re: discounts/reasoning for every one. I think we can agree this probably wasn't completed by early Sunday when the numbers came out. Thus, the 24,500 deliveries number must not include corner cases at all, or else there's serious egg on Elon's face if the actual number was something like 24,000 because 500 cars had "early paperwork" or whatever. See also: language re: "conservative."

How could this have been done in practice? Here's one possibility - what if the 24,500 number didn't include any paperwork/deliveries submitted after the date of the email (Sept 28) because it needed to be vetted to make sure they don't overreport after hearing of potential early paperwork issues?

Elon has laid the groundwork for reporting back on that companywide email and has every incentive to do so. He mentioned a personal review, noted that he expected a small number of cases (re: discounting specifically, but still) and posted the thing to Twitter. The number one bear response to the great numbers were "yea, but discounting" and "you are inflating the numbers!!1!" He left himself a clear opening to post back to Twitter: "Review completed, improper discounts of new cars only 0.x% of total deliveries. Paperwork only submitted early in ___ cases. Actual deliveries were _______, not 24,500."

Elon is pretty good about reporting back on investigations, especially when the subject is Tesla's integrity. I expect some kind of public follow-up on that companywide email.

 

[AlMc]

Agreed. If they can nail the aesthetics and cost is reasonable this could be huge. There might be a number of fair weather tesla longs on here with egg on their face in a year or two when it becomes obvious the deal at current price was a "no brainer".

My brain is getting older by the second but I still have one (I think). I have indeed had egg on my face as unlike some I am not always 100% correct in my investing.

I guess I am a 'Fair weather long'

 

[Turing]

My brain is getting older by the second but I still have one (I think). I have indeed had egg on my face as unlike some I am not always 100% correct in my investing.

I guess I am a 'Fair weather long'

You're a fair weather long because you want to send a crystal clear message to the market that tesla investors and especially institutional backers have lost confidence in their - CEO, chief product architect, largest shareholder, and public face of the company - that they no longer agree with his vision and leadership. If you think Elon and the tesla board are capable of such a major strategic and visionary mistake, you should just sell your shares and be done with it, no?

For the record, I'm not a fan of the timing of this merger. But i think the bad timing is part of why they are getting a 'no brainer' deal here.

 

[Drivin]

Here's a random (and possibly not entirely original) thought: actual deliveries might be moderately higher than 24,500. I know Drivin just read this first line and clicked the "Funny" button, but for the rest of you read on...

First, the 1% error language - which has been in every deliveries release since forever - was notably absent. I think we can all agree, therefore, that the door is open for the 24,500 number to be off by over 1%. By the way, 1% of 24,500 is a pretty significant number when you consider how close Tesla is to profitability this quarter. Also, 24,500 is a suspiciously round number.

24,500 is no more suspicious than 24,542 or 24,442. The odds are 1/100 that a number ends in 00 or 01 or 02.

Second, there's new language about the deliveries count being "slightly conservative." Taken at face value, a normal reading of this language suggests that the (possibly in excess of 1%) error would be to the low side, meaning 24,500 should be a baseline.

No, it was listed as conservative because it only includes cars that were delivered and paperwork delivered.
So what everyone else in the industry does as standard practice, Tesla views as "conservative". LOL.

Fourth, we know Elon vowed to "personally review" the deliveries list and for Tesla Finance to deliver a report to him re: discounts/reasoning for every one. I think we can agree this probably wasn't completed by early Sunday when the numbers came out. Thus, the 24,500 deliveries number must not include corner cases at all, or else there's serious egg on Elon's face

So if any of these discounted cars was not actually delivered nor the paperwork wasn't done, then the number would go down. So 24,500 in that case is a ceiling.

How could this have been done in practice? Here's one possibility - what if the 24,500 number didn't include any paperwork/deliveries submitted after the date of the email (Sept 28) because it needed to be vetted to make sure they don't overreport after hearing of potential early paperwork issues?

Whoa, there is a stretch and wishful thinking. The example from the Reddit post happened before the 9/28 email, so why not just be really optimistic and hope it didn't include any deals from the last week?

Elon has laid the groundwork for reporting back on that companywide email and has every incentive to do so. He mentioned a personal review, noted that he expected a small number of cases

A small number is still....small.

The more important point is that with these numbers, even with small improvement, and what was said in the press release, that the lower end of the re-affirmed guidance of 80-90k will likely not be met.

 

[SPadival]

I have a soft corner for Daimler. As Elon mentions often, TSLA was bailed out by Daimler, not the Government. We would not have TSLA today, were it not for the critical investment by Daimler when TSLA was about to sink.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I'm suprised everyone is saying that the SP will actually go UP once merger is approved

I think it's from the lack of uncertain. While the vote isn't done yet, shenanigans like the lawsuits wastes Tesla's time and money with threat of potentially derailing the merger. Once the merger's done, nothing matters anymore, and we'll all be back to evaluating TSLA's future (now with SCTY in tow).

 

[renim]

If the merger stops, I would expect a massive squeeze up on TSLA, basically the opposite of what happened when the merger was announced. So an intraday $100 spike, that retraces about $50 by close.

Doesn't that alone justify a blocking the merger?

If SCTY gets into TSLA, then TSLA the stock becomes infected, Tesla the company can continue to grow and prosper, but TSLA the stock, well, the magic will be gone.

 

[myusername]

looking for 100 dislikes here...

20k vs 25k is the difference of 0.006% of GM's quarterly deliveries... I personally think 2025 is priced into this stock... and that the odds of the PPS staying the same or even declining are higher than most would think.

30 dislikes... 6 funny-s... and a dozen responses with "this will move up 10% to 20% on good deliveries" -- and in the end... i win on Price is Right rules while TSLA sits 3% above last Friday's close.

 

[MitchJi]

If the merger stops, I would expect a massive squeeze up on TSLA, basically the opposite of what happened when the merger was announced. So an intraday $100 spike, that retraces about $50 by close.

Doesn't that alone justify a blocking the merger.

It does not. Unless your name is Nostradamus.

 

[Jayjs20]

I don't think throwing a wrench in the CEO's plans laid out for the next several years will increase the SP by 100.