Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

Having endured several named storms and their aftermath, my thoughts (and prayers if that is permissible here) are with our fellow citizens along the east coast of Florida. Hindsight is always 20/20, but here's hoping that Tesla/SolarCity was prescient enough to be testing a proto-type of the roofing system in Florida to get some empirical data about its durability in a (close-to) worse case real world scenario..

I always hope this for all products as well. I would install in cold, freezing, rainy, hot, beach, humid, dry, sunny, cloudy, dusty, windy, urban, rural, suburban, all of Caribbean, all latitudes and longitudes, etc. I would put automatic monitoring (camera, weather stations, electric output sensors) and take occasional samples. I'd also mimicked this in labs. Probably every materials engineer does this too, but we can only hope. Of course I don't wish ill on anyone, and this is part of that.

 

[3Victoria]

Yes, skin atrophy is well known in aging .... both figuratively and actually .

 

[brian45011]

Yes, skin atrophy is well known in aging .... both figuratively and actually .

Is that why I am constantly bombarded by "spots' that caution us to replace our mattress?

 

[RobinF]

Any thoughts on how long it will take to recover from this -3.5% slam?

 

[Xpert]

Any thoughts on how long it will take to recover from this -3.5% slam?

Hard to say, all it will take might be a tweet or a counter analyst upgrade. I think it will be hard to suppress the SP further going into the solar roof reveal and Q3 ER.
I just bought some more options, I dont buy this new GS analyst opinion. I think we have covered everything here on TMC and he has no clue.

 

[larmor]

Any thoughts on how long it will take to recover from this -3.5% slam?

As soon as GS can fill its own orders...

 

[Jayjs20]

ER will undoubtedly be positive, so we'll see at least the teens again in under a month. Could be sooner, but won't be later.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I just spoke to my Goldman contact ( who is a happy Model S owner) and he confirmed they have a new analyst following Tesla. He defended the downgrade as "a new set of eyes " looking at the company and it being part of the concerns about the auto sector overall that were called out in the full 80 page report.

Ahhh, that's GS code speak for:

As soon as GS can fill its own orders...

See if you can get the decoder ring so we can decipher future upgrades and downgrades.

 

[EinSV]

I do find it interesting that the Bloomberg article says, "Analysts estimate that Musk will need to raise as much as $2 billion."

That's not $3 billion, or $4 billion. And it's as much as $2 billion. The question is whether it needs up to $2 billion for 2017 or it wants up to $2 billion to accelerate 2018/2019. There's a big difference between the two.

Two things come to mind. First, if Tesla wants to raise in Q4 now, I think they are forced to tell us, as in the investor community more about their plans for 2017-2019. Potentially tell us a lot more about Tesla Energy - which means the dog and pony show at the end of the month and/or Q3 earnings call will need to have financial projections, including capacity projections.

They also need to tip their hands more on the status of the Model 3 build out. Just flat out stating they are on track is not getting the job done.

I think it is more and more likely we will hear guidance sooner rather than later on TE, given the new projects. Probably around Q3 ER. I hope it is very conservative -- a few solid beats going into mid-2017 could help build confidence and soothe some of the pre-Model 3 launch jitters.

I have been assuming we wouldn't see the M3 Beta prototypes until Reveal Part 2. (Alpha prototype was shown at Reveal Part 1 and approved by the Board by March 31, 2016 (this is on page 21 of the Q1 10Q)).

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I decided to go look at the trading action going in to the close yesterday. I wonder how I can get on the mailing list that gets the wink and the nod advance notice of a GS downgrade coming the next day. Like these people:

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The new GS price target is BS. The new analyst changed very little in the the report, and basically reduced his price target based on no financial metric other than increased risk presented by the merger and his unfounded belief that the Model 3 will be delayed.

Found this on StockTwits.

Interestingly, the analyst appears to allegedly believe that Tesla Energy is not worth much and sales will remain stagnant forever.

I have no idea where the $185 number comes from.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I decided to go look at the trading action going in to the close yesterday. I wonder how I can get on the mailing list that gets the wink and the nod advance notice of a GS downgrade coming the next day. Like these people:

View attachment 197684

The proof is the hard part but def a select group of people saw the down grade coming.

 

[racer26]

...We *did* notice a big volume spike in the last half hour yesterday that corresponded with a falling SP (indicating strong selling pressure). Someone knew that we were about to have this drop today, and someone consequently made a bunch of money off the rest of us suckers.

 

[Seesaw]

I have no idea where the $185 number comes from.

I actually thought that number has been staring at us for weeks with the arbitrage between SCTY and TSLA showing a future predicted price of TSLA of between 170-190.

Of course it may never get there, but I definately can see the market thinking that's where it would head.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very confident Tesla pre announces EPS. Tomorrow or next week is the question. Any guesses?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I actually thought that number has been staring at us for weeks with the arbitrage between SCTY and TSLA showing a future predicted price of TSLA of between 170-190.

Of course it may never get there, but I definately can see the market thinking that's where it would head.

Your view doesn't make sense since Tesla likely implemented a hedge to prevent market volatility from creating a problem should the spread widen. Also, if Tesla taps $170, the offer is nullified. I don't think any party will allow that to happen.

On a side note, Tamberino's horrible track record means he is clearly a shill who can be paid to say anything.

 

[FredTMC]

Very confident Tesla pre announces EPS. Tomorrow or next week is the question. Any guesses?

Until today, I thought the chances were minimal.

Now, maybe more likely. I'd be good with that...

 

[techmaven]

The new GS price target is BS. The new analyst changed very little in the the report, and basically reduced his price target based on no financial metric other than increased risk presented by the merger and his unfounded belief that the Model 3 will be delayed.

Found this on StockTwits.

Interestingly, the analyst appears to allegedly believe that Tesla Energy is not worth much and sales will remain stagnant forever.

I have no idea where the $185 number comes from.

View attachment 197685

Thanks for posting the chart... we've seen it before, I'm curious what has changed if anything.

Note from the chart... who believes that the Tesla units in 2025 is 1.9 million (Elon as Maytag repairman) or 625,000 (base case). As a frame of reference, Tesla has 100% of all long distance BEV sales today, of a market of 80,000 units a year. Next year, depending on how you count the Bolt and how the Model 3 ramp goes, we're talking 85% of a 250,000+ overall market. For 2018, it's too late for the others to bring on substantial additional battery supply beyond what was announced already. Tesla still has 80-90% or so marketshare of 400,000 to 600,000 units overall. For 2019, the percentage doesn't change much. So the new GS analyst is basically thinking that Tesla will have less units in 2025 than in 2019/2020. A possibility, but not a likely one. It seems to me that the "Elon as Steve Jobs" scenario has more likelihood than the rest, but I'll even take "Elon as Maytag repairman" right now. But choosing base case at 45% likelihood? He's smoking something.

 

[EinSV]

The new GS price target is BS. The new analyst changed very little in the the report, and basically reduced his price target based on no financial metric other than increased risk presented by the merger and his unfounded belief that the Model 3 will be delayed.

Found this on StockTwits.

Interestingly, the analyst appears to allegedly believe that Tesla Energy is not worth much and sales will remain stagnant forever.

I have no idea where the $185 number comes from.

View attachment 197685

As a quick footnote to the discussion yesterday regarding 1M vehicles in 2020 being supposedly baked into the SP note the "Base case" -- weighted 45 percent -- assumes only 625K vehicles sold in 2025. That's just absurd but it's a critical component of their ridiculously low valuation.

 

[Seesaw]

As a quick footnote to the discussion yesterday regarding 1M vehicles in 2020 being supposedly baked into the SP note the "Base case" -- weighted 45 percent -- assumes only 625K vehicles sold in 2025. That's just absurd but it's a critical component of their ridiculously low valuation.

Baking 625,000 cars a year into the valuation of a company that only produces 80,000 a year is still pretty generous on their account. I actually think they have been very generous overall in their assessment, and the downgrade could of been a lot harsher.