Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

Attempting to consider a possibility that has no basis in reality is the definition of reaching.

considering the contradiction between SEC filing 2 days ago... the non-absolute tweet that was just sent... and a downgrade by the one company that has been involved with every offering since they went public... I do not see this as having "no basis in reality"... i'm not saying it's likely... but it's certainly plausible.

 

[JBRR]

I hope you don't. While i disagree with him/her the vast majority of the points raised are plausible and we need valid dissenters in this thread to stop the circlejerk that can form. myusername at least provides their ideas in a cogent and open way which is much better than most of the other negative Nancys we get here. There is the odd error from time to time but we are all guilty of that.

Agree.
Having a "10th man" in this forum is great. Even if you don't like what he says there's a chance that one day he might dig up something that could be of value to you.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Maybe Tesla has received 500,000-1milllion preorders for the Powerwall/Powerpack and is planning on beginning a formal preorder process that includes putting $1000-$2000 down, to reserve a spot in line? Would be one of many ways Tesla could obtain $1-2 billion without having to issue debt or reach out for large capital lines.

I'm fairly sure cash won't be an issue for Tesla. Accounting for all countries, there are hundreds of billions of dollars in interest free loans being made available to companies producing grid storage. Also, there are many companies sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in cash that are looking for a sensible way of investing/deploying it.

 

[MitchJi]

Agree.
Having a "10th man" in this forum is great. Even if you don't like what he says there's a chance that one day he might dig up something that could be of value to you.

The tooth fairy could leave a million dollars under my pillow also. The chances of an idiot troll providing useful information are similar. It's a monumental waste of time. If you think you can benefit from that type of drivel you can start spending time on seeking FUD.


Edit addition: This is backwards. Fluxcap sounds like he's losing patience and says that he is considering leaving the forum, due to the waste of time caused by responses to trolls, and your response is to be concerned that we might lose a troll?! Fluxcap is one of the most valuable contributors to this forum. It's pretty sad that we could lose his valuable information and advice because some of us insist on responding to nonsensical posts by trolls.

 

[Fallenone]

While I think AP2.0 is most likely, any chance for the truck they've been working on?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I'm guessing that there will be a new S-4 tomorrow. There must have been a new deal over the weekend, or perhaps some creative new idea.

Or, perhaps - and this is just a WAG on my part - they made money in Q3 and can apply that to further expansion instead of needing a cap raise.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I'm sure Goldman would raise their price target if that was all that was preventing them from making a buck.

Yes - it was already "suggested" (no proof) right here on this forum a few days ago that maybe Goldman Sachs was buying in to their downgrade - *gasp* - I know, unthinkable.

And if they did, maybe they will make some nice coin this week if the stock price rises. I guess - if that happens - they just got lucky.

 

[JBRR]

The tooth fairy could leave a million dollars under my pillow also. The chances of an idiot troll providing useful information are similar. It's a monumental waste of time. If you think you can benefit from that type of drivel you can start spending time on seeking FUD.

Classifying someone such that you listen to nothing the person has to say is kinda wasteful.
I'm not proposing that you spend time refuting everything you disagree with.

I'm merely saying that having posters in here that are bearish, is healthy. Granted, it would be better if we had super well informed, smart posters who were still bearish. But I prefer having 1 ill informed bearish poster over having none at all.
If nothing else it provides a window into the mindset of the person who you are betting against every time you increase your long position.

Personally I enjoy reading bearish articles on Tesla. If I can read them and find the holes in their logic it reaffirms me in my long position.

But I always try and find reasons to change my mind.
This is a great collection of essays on what I'm trying to bring across, from someone much smarter than me.

How To Actually Change Your Mind - Lesswrongwiki

 

[larmor]

Or, perhaps - and this is just a WAG on my part - they made money in Q3 and can apply that to further expansion instead of needing a cap raise.

Agree, and may be GS was just peeved that if TM made a profit, they would need less or no commerical loan. Since GS is a bank, they would lose a huge customer, loan, and possibly partial ownership of TM.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Elon did say Tesla were definitely going in to trucking/road freight at some point. Well, maybe that point in time is going to be much sooner than any of us could imagine?

Of I owned a large trucking company I would prepay a large amount for having the first mover advantage of teaming up work Tesla on BEV semis. Look, we all know that BEV + autonomous driving is going to eat today's diesel + human driven trucks market for lunch.

Heck....Freightliner CEO just paid $4Million to have the Rolling Stones put on a show......

 

[AlMc]

Classifying someone such that you listen to nothing the person has to say is kinda wasteful.
I'm not proposing that you spend time refuting everything you disagree with.

I'm merely saying that having posters in here that are bearish, is healthy. Granted, it would be better if we had super well informed, smart posters who were still bearish. But I prefer having 1 ill informed bearish poster over having none at all.
If nothing else it provides a window into the mindset of the person who you are betting against every time you increase your long position.

Personally I enjoy reading bearish articles on Tesla. If I can read them and find the holes in their logic it reaffirms me in my long position.

But I always try and find reasons to change my mind.
This is a great collection of essays on what I'm trying to bring across, from someone much smarter than me.

How To Actually Change Your Mind - Lesswrongwiki

I agree that having nothing but a circular firing squad of opinions is not the best way to invest one's hard earning money.

 

[FredTMC]

Notice in Elon's tweet that he's saying there's no NEED (requirement) to raise in Q4.

IMO, this means they MAY raise in Q4 (if they choose) but they won't run out of cash if they don't...

Reason I bring this up is some folks may take the tweet(s) to mean they are definitely NOT raising cash near term...



Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk
Would also like to correct expectations that Tesla/SolarCity will need to raise equity or corp debt in Q4. Won't be necessary for either.

 

[brian45011]

What I think is a good deal is Google/Apple investing, say $10 billion for 15% stake, valuing the company at around $66 billion. .

Good deal indeed! Current market cap is ~$30 billion. Investing $10 billion raises the market cap by $36 Billion?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Would also like to correct expectations that Tesla/SolarCity will need to raise equity or corp debt in Q4. Won't be necessary for either.

@myusername - I think you could interpret that tweet to mean that the S4 filing is in error and will be corrected to indicate they don't anticipate a raise before year's end. Things change. They might have had a really good Q3 and expect same in Q4.

 

[dennis]

well Goldman was last week. I'm just saying... if GS and MS are not available to work the deal like they've been for years now... then this could be an explanation for this tweet... i'm not saying it is... but it's just an option... i'm sure we'll find out soon enough... but this would be a very bad outcome.

Not a bad outcome for JP Morgan or one of the other banks. Tesla does not have to have GS and MS. Plus MS could change their rating based an all the new positive info.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Notice in Elon's tweet that he's saying there's no NEED (requirement) to raise in Q4.

IMO, this means they MAY raise in Q4 (if they choose) but they won't run out of cash if they don't...

Reason I bring this up is some folks may take the tweet(s) to mean they are definitely NOT raising cash near term...

Yes, if the SP goes up to something like 300-400, Tesla may do a raise. They'd be stupid not to, given that they would like more cash. But most likely there won't be a raise.

 

[Johan]

Notice in Elon's tweet that he's saying there's no NEED (requirement) to raise in Q4.

IMO, this means they MAY raise in Q4 (if they choose) but they won't run out of cash if they don't...

Reason I bring this up is some folks may take the tweet(s) to mean they are definitely NOT raising cash near term...



Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk
Would also like to correct expectations that Tesla/SolarCity will need to raise equity or corp debt in Q4. Won't be necessary for either.

While it is technically correct the could say this now (we don't NEED to raise) but then procede to do so, claim they did it without needing it and again technically not be liars, well, that politician/lawyer ethics. Not Elon ethics.

I'm not saying they'll never raise capital again; just saying that it would look bad if they did in Q4, especially if it's an opportunistic raise off of a squeeze/rally perhaps partly created by them saying: there's no need for a raise

 

[Crowded Mind]

Can anyone point to a post from @myusername over the last month that has changed their opinion on anything? Seriously...

We have rational people on these forums. It doesn't have to come down to bull vs. bear. People like @schonelucht benefit this forum. People like @myusername detract from the usefulness of this forum when half the posts in this thread are people explaining the position of basically every reader, stuff that has been covered ad-naseum like why GM and TSLA should not be valued on the exact same metrics, to one singular reader. Not to mention that the vast majority of these conversations do not belong in a short-term price movement thread. I know this has devolved into a general discussion thread, but come on.

 

[Jayjs20]

Just saying, having diverse opinions for the sake of diversity is stupid. The man says stupid things on a regular basis. If you want to be open to his stupid ideas just so you can say you're open to differing opinions, then sure, go ahead, but don't pretend there's any value or virtue in that.

All that's happening is that you bought into his mind games. "Wah wah I'm being attacked just because my opinions are different!" is a very common, basic level trick.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Classifying someone such that you listen to nothing the person has to say is kinda wasteful.
I'm not proposing that you spend time refuting everything you disagree with.

I'm merely saying that having posters in here that are bearish, is healthy. Granted, it would be better if we had super well informed, smart posters who were still bearish. But I prefer having 1 ill informed bearish poster over having none at all.
If nothing else it provides a window into the mindset of the person who you are betting against every time you increase your long position.

Personally I enjoy reading bearish articles on Tesla. If I can read them and find the holes in their logic it reaffirms me in my long position.

But I always try and find reasons to change my mind.
This is a great collection of essays on what I'm trying to bring across, from someone much smarter than me.

How To Actually Change Your Mind - Lesswrongwiki

There is significant difference between posting bearish views (nothing objectionable here) and engaging in trolling. I hope that this Forum have enough wisdom to distinguish the two.