Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

Just saying, having diverse opinions for the sake of diversity is stupid. The man says stupid things on a regular basis. If you want to be open to his stupid ideas just so you can say you're open to differing opinions, then sure, go ahead, but don't pretend there's any value or virtue in that.

All that's happening is that you bought into his mind games. "Wah wah I'm being attacked just because my opinions are different!" is a very common, basic level trick.

"The man says stupid things on a regular basis."

you mean like: "there's a larger chance than those on this board think that Tesla will trade flat or even lower than [$204] after these strong delivery numbers."

remember that one?... 30 dislikes... closed the week at $196... man that was stupid.

 

[FredTMC]

While it is technically correct the could say this now (we don't NEED to raise) but then procede to do so, claim they did it without needing it and again technically not be liars, well, that politician/lawyer ethics. Not Elon ethics.

IMO... I think Elon is simply saying "we don't NEED to raise"... I believe he's being completely truthful with that statement.

But, they could if they wanted to...I'm leaving that option/interpretation on the table.

If they completely ruled out a raise he would've said "we are not doing a raise in Q4"

 

[MitchJi]

Edit addition: This is backwards. Fluxcap sounds like he's losing patience and says that he is considering leaving the forum, due to the waste of time caused by responses to trolls, and your response is to be concerned that we might lose a troll?! Fluxcap is one of the most valuable contributors to this forum. It's pretty sad that we could lose his valuable information and advice because some of us insist on responding to nonsensical posts by trolls.

Classifying someone such that you listen to nothing the person has to say is kinda wasteful.
I'm not proposing that you spend time refuting everything you disagree with.

I'm merely saying that having posters in here that are bearish, is healthy. Granted, it would be better if we had super well informed, smart posters who were still bearish. But I prefer having 1 ill informed bearish poster over having none at all.
If nothing else it provides a window into the mindset of the person who you are betting against every time you increase your long position.

Personally I enjoy reading bearish articles on Tesla. If I can read them and find the holes in their logic it reaffirms me in my long position.

Fine. You can read them someplace else. It's hard to find intelligent and useful information. Good advice is extremely valuable and difficult to find. Dumb advice and incorrect information not so much. It's hard for me to believe that Fluxcap is thinking about leaving and people are defending the useless drivel spouting troll that triggered that.

I agree that having nothing but a circular firing squad of opinions is not the best way to invest one's hard earning money.

There are whole forums with much better informed bears than are on this forum. Maybe if you benefit from negative opinions you might be better served by at least getting the best negative opinions that are available?

 

[geneclean55]

IMO... I think Elon is simply saying "we don't NEED to raise"... I believe he's being completely truthful with that statement.

But, they could if they wanted to...I'm leaving that option/interpretation on the table.

If they completely ruled out a raise he would've said "we are not doing a raise in Q4"

He also used the word 'expectation'. Now following his tweet, the expectation should be no cap raise IMO.

He also said 'not likely' for Q1. I think the intent is fairly clear.

 

[brian45011]

this may be slitely OT, but it points to things accelerating, small german company build electric delivery vans (1,000 of them) and irritates VW execs {and is a positive for EV's and possibly Tesla}
"“I am annoyed beyond measure. I, of course, ask myself why Post did not talk to our VW Commercial vehicles division about doing something similar,” commented CEO Matthias Mueller. “Let’s see if we can still get a foot in the door there.”

Deutsche Post Builds Its Own Electric Delivery Van, Volkswagen Execs Are Angry

Various Configurations of Smith Electric Vehicles

 

[TMSE]

Good deal indeed! Current market cap is ~$30 billion. Investing $10 billion raises the market cap by $36 Billion?

Yes. It is the price at which new equity is issued that matters to market cap, not the amount of new investment.

For example, Uber is valued at $60 billion now. The total money invested in it is nowhere close to it. Even the later stage investments increased the valuation much higher than the additional cap invested because of progressively smaller share of the company received in return.

 

[brian45011]

Reason for owning a car: convenience
We live in a convenience society.
People pay for convenience .
Convenience is time, the cost of time varies per individual.

Owning a car in some cities is inconvenient
Because parking is either very expensive or not available
Or alternatives are faster. Faster is more convenient.

Ever try to take the keys away from a parent with failing mental faculties?--to many cars are freedom and independence.

 

[Mike Smith]

When Elon revealed the 100 he tweeted that there would be a 'product announcement'. He's calling this a 'product unveiling', which means live event. This tells me it is a significant, all-new product.

The tweet also says that it will be 'unexpected by most'. I think his is referring to the Model Y unveil not being expected this early.

Part 2 of the models 3 and Y unveil would come later at another event. It makes sense to reveal the Model Y now so that people see how much better it will be than the bolt.

 

[JBRR]

Fine. You can read them someplace else. It's hard to find intelligent and useful information. Good advice is extremely valuable and difficult to find. Dumb advice and incorrect information not so much. It's hard for me to believe that Fluxcap is thinking about leaving and people are defending the useless drivel spouting troll that caused that.


There are whole forums with much better informed bears than are on this forum. Maybe if you benefit from negative opinions you might be better served by at least getting the best negative opinions that are available?

(Still haven't figured out how to quote correctly).
I'm not disagreeing with you if your point is that we would rather have Fluxcap than random bear guy in this forum.

It's kind of a strawman though - as my points could be boiled down to 1. don't mind having bearish posters. 2. Don't have to spend time replying to them.

Would love a link to a forum of smart posters that is bearish on Tesla.

The issue I see is that people are spending too much time and effort replying to posts that are without insight. Just ignore those you don't find worthy of spending time responding to and focus on adding value to the forum with your posts.

If I read Fluxcap's post correctly I gather he is frustrated by the noise the bear guy creates because too many people are engaging in discussions with him that aren't creating any value for anyone.

Will stop the discussion here on my end as I don't think we are in disagreement really.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I'd be (very happily) surprised if the announcement on the 17th is AP 2.0. I don't expect AP 2.0 'til mid 2017.

That said I'm really not sure what the announcement will be. Could be snake charger, 100D, Tesla bus, Tesla semi, Tesla Vision, Model Y, new rear motor, new battery improvement etc. etc. I really don't know.

I checked out NextEra's latest 10Q, they only have 730M cash on hand, but 85B in assets, the partnership rumors are plausible.

I like the confidence I'm sensing from Elon, props to @CALGARYARSENAL for calling a positive announcement out of left field.

 

[brian45011]

Yes. It is the price at which new equity is issued that matters to market cap, not the amount of new investment.

For example, Uber is valued at $60 billion now. The total money invested in it is nowhere close to it. Even the later stage investments increased the valuation much higher that the additional cap invested because of progressively smaller share of the company received in return.

I was assuming Apple or Google might be more astute investors who would think if they were contributing something over a third of the current market cap they might expect an ownership interest closer to 25% than 15%..

 

[3Victoria]

One can highlight a selection and choose '+quote' or quote the whole post.

You can also trim the quoted part.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

IMO... I think Elon is simply saying "we don't NEED to raise"... I believe he's being completely truthful with that statement.

But, they could if they wanted to...I'm leaving that option/interpretation on the table.

If they completely ruled out a raise he would've said "we are not doing a raise in Q4"

Hey Fred. We are all a little stunned with the perpetual negative news cycle, but this is a win for the longs. He will not raise capital for quite some time. To do so would look really bad. Sit back and enjoy the squeeze tomorrow which will be one to remember. Cheers!

 

[brian45011]

Maintenance will be largely irrelevant in future BEVs as well as inspections. .

Inspections are like traffic tickets (primarily revenue generators--but both have a more pragmatic function).

 

[TMSE]

I was assuming Apple or Google might be more astute investors who would think if they were contributing something over a third of the current market cap they might expect an ownership interest closer to 25% than 15%..

True. But Elon is a hard negotiator

 

[FredTMC]

Yes. It is the price at which new equity is issued that matters to market cap, not the amount of new investment.

For example, Uber is valued at $60 billion now. The total money invested in it is nowhere close to it. Even the later stage investments increased the valuation much higher that the additional cap invested because of progressively smaller share of the company received in return.

Yup. This can instantly reset the stock price higher even for a small slice of the pie. Remember when Microsoft paid like a billion for a 1% stake in FB?! Boom.

 

[FredTMC]

Hey Fred. We are all a little stunned with the perpetual negative news cycle, but this is a win for the longs. He will not raise capital for quite some time. To do so would look really bad. Sit back and enjoy the squeeze tomorrow which will be one to remember. Cheers!

I will! Thanks.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yup. This can instantly reset the stock price higher even for a small slice of the pie. Remember when Microsoft paid like a billion for a 1% stake in FB?! Boom.

Can anyone cite an example where a capital raise for a public company has been issued at a price significantly higher than the stock price. I seriously doubt there will be any examples because investors can just by the shares more cheaply on the open market. Usually capital raises are done at a slight discount to encourage investors or at a heavy discount if the company is in trouble.

The FB and Uber examples are not representative of a Tesla capital raise because those companies were private at the time.

Sneaky Edit: The lack of a capital raise could push the price up if the expectation of a capital raise had already been priced in.

 

[esk8mw]

Even Tesla's Banks Have Doubts About the Solar City Deal

"That may be complicated by the fact that Morgan Stanley and Goldman, the two banks who have been lead underwriters on most of its deals, have both dropped “buy” ratings since their last offering."

You sure are panicky. It's hilarious.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My prediction is that Microsoft will be investing in TSLA real soon. Gates wants to see everybody in the world enjoy affordable, reliable energy within the next 10 years - and with no impact on climate. Apple is simply dragging their feet on this one. So much for Tim Cook being the environmentalist. Microsoft will be back in the position of leading vs following with such a move.