Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[cziegler]

Truth is that if all AP did was butter toast it would be seen as dangerous by some.

Please allow me to demonstrate: "Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States, killing more than 600,000 people each year." Heart Disease Statistics & Maps | cdc.gov . By way of comparison, annual US motor vehicle traffic related fatalities are roughly 36,000. So yes, AP buttering toast will cause an increase of human consumption of dairy fat and the resulting increased instance of heart disease will trigger a series of lawsuits and will prove to be the ultimate 'Tesla Killer'. I challenge John Petersen to top that one ;-)

Personally, I'm hoping for a truck or X version of a utility vehicle.

 

[pGo]

My take is based on market response is that the unexpected product announcement is AP2.0. It will be ground breaking in terms of future capabilities. Which won't move the needle as future updates will make certain features available at tesla time.

I think even earnings may not move the stock much as we pretty much know the results to be around GAAP break even - give or take.

What will move the stock is how well scty and power wall integration announcement. If it's well received, people will gear up for the merger. If it's too expensive, will take a lot of time to establish, requires a lot of sell through, stock will stay in limbo.

 

[Nate the Great]

I don't know if this has been posted, but there is a reddit link that mentions that they think that the Tesla Glass .

My prediction for Oct 17: Tesla Glass • /r/teslamotors

""Many are predicting AP hardware updates or solar/power products for Oct 17. However, I think AP will be discussed later this year during Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal, and solar etc will be in the later Oct SolarCity/Tesla event.

Instead, I believe the Oct 17 event will be even more "unexpected" and be related to the 'Tesla Glass' project. Few people know exactly what it is, but I believe it is a refined, functional, and beautiful Heads-Up-Display (HUD) for Tesla vehicles. I also believe it will be retrofittable (via the new wiring harnesses) to refreshed Model S and X.

Here is a source on Tesla Glass: Tesla Glass: the electric automaker’s latest top-secret program""

He did mention spaceship?

 

[Lessmog]

I now have really good suspicion as to what the new product is. Received my long, long awaited sun screen for the panoramic windshield in my non-existent Model X. That's when it clicked. Elon had the Model X, which was too overly complicated to ever build, designed because of a personal need right? So maybe this new product is something he needs. He is getting old, and all of us old people know that the Sun is no friend, and in fact it can kill you. At the very least it makes your skin wrinkly and no one likes that. I saw a Seinfeld episode on melanoma a long time ago that confirms this, so trust me on this. So I think this new product will be sunscreen. No not the flimsy crappy thing they sent me today. You can't make a profit off of something they give away for free. Not only have I read that on the Internet but I did the math and I just don't see profit in it. Also who wants a sun screen for a car that can't be built and no one would buy if they could afford it anyway.

No what I am talking about is sunscreen to protect us all from that known killer Sunshine. Using all his knowledge of physics and dark holes I bet he came up with a formula that blocks out all those deadly, burning Sun rays. Even if it is a scam like all his other businesses (yeah rockets, like that will ever work), it will be a big show and he'll have a prototype and all that other stuff they do at unveilings. We will probably see the stock price of Coppertone plummet, so that might be a good play to short. (Note: please don't take investment advice from some anonymous poster on a random Internet blog site unless you really, really want to get rich quick).

So how does this tie in with the SCTY acquisition you ask? Simple he realized that SolarCity was just about to break out and he needed to stop that. There can be no good that comes out of Sun worshipping products like solar panels. They had to be stopped. So Tesla acquires them and then kills all those products. You really think the October 28th event is for new SCTY products? It is to announce they will be closing up shop after the merger to move onto their next scam, I mean business. That is the Sun lotion business. Sun is evil, that is why we need more coal. Burn enough coal and you block out that evil Sun with all the healthy soot. Also it is certainly much more environmentally friendly to blow the tops off of mountains to get the coal to burn than dig up all that lithium. Plus lithium is much better used in grease to lube real cars, not those fake electric battery golf cart things.

And until we get a good layer of coal soot surrounding the Earth, people will need sunscreen, and that is where Tesla makes a killing. And best thing is there are no state laws protecting sunscreen dealers so they can sell direct in all 50 states and even the territories without having to bribe politicians. That's a big saving there to pump up the bottom line. Just think how much sunscreen tubes they can produce in Freemont, let alone the GFs in Nevada and NY? We are talking billions a week. Those kind of production numbers are much better than a few measly thousand non-buildable vehicles a month. That should make all the anonymous posters here happy, shouldn't it?

Could sell everything, including the kitchen zinc. Or, to really make a killing, sunscreen out of doped silicon! That would really electrify everybody.
As for lube, silicone is useful there too. So I hear.

 

[vgrinshpun]

[

Great points/questions. A couple thoughts. My WAG average pricing of $400/kWh is conservative. A 4000kWh/1000kW Powerpack system is currently $2,616,380 on the website, including inverters, cabling and HW. That is $654/kWh. The price can be over $700/kWh for some configurations.

In terms of the new TE products they are announcing I have assumed that the "nobody else has even announced this" language refers at least in part to an integrated Powerwall/inverter with an optional Tesla charger that will allow for much simpler and less expensive installation and improved ease of use (along with a streamlined purchasing process). Not sure whether there will be new bells and whistles for Powerpack, other than reduced pricing.

Pricing will come down but since it appears likely that Tesla is able to take orders at current pricing, and I have not seen convincing reports of competitors undercutting on price, I don't know that Tesla will need to have dramatic reductions in the first half of 2017 to move the volume of TE products Tesla is able to produce. But even if it does, my $400/kWh WAG is conservative, as noted above.

There are obviously a lot of moving parts and lots of guesswork here so feel free to take the numbers with a grain of salt. I think others on the forum (including you, in particular) have a deeper understanding of the TE cost side of the equation than I do as well as the market.

But however you crunch the pricing and cost numbers, I think it is likely that a big part of the explanation for the lack of capital needs for Q4 2016 and potentially Q1 2017 as well is ramp of TE production.

As a technical note, for the $/kWh pricing, the inverters should be excluded from the calculation. The rating of inverters can greatly vary depending on the requirements of the system. In power intensive applications, with frequency response as one of the examples, the rating of inverters in kW can be 0.5 - 1 x the capacity rating of the batteries. For the fully dispatchable grid connected solar the ratio could be 0.25 x the capacity rating of the batteries. So if the pricing of the inverters is included in overall $/kWh, the two sample projects will have significantly different $/kWh, while actual price of the batteries used in them is identical.

So it is better to not include inverters in $/kWh, which is totally logical as their price is driven by the required power rating of the system, not the capacity (energy) rating of the batteries. Inverter pricing should be given in $/kW. The system pricing should include data for both $/kWh and $/kW, along with the energy (kWh) and power (kW) rating of the system

 

[Paracelsus]

Nice article on solar-powered sea water green house now online in Australia using no fossil fuels. Two more facilities now in the works - Portugal and the US. "Seawater is piped 2 kilometres from the Spencer Gulf to Sundrop Farm – the 20-hectare site in the arid Port Augusta region. A solar-powered desalination plant removes the salt, creating enough fresh water to irrigate 180,000 tomato plants inside the greenhouse."

First farm to grow veg in a desert using only sun and seawater

 

[dandurston]

I think all the signs point to the Oct 17 unveiling as that is something that will be available immediately on the S & X.

Tesla tried hard to clear the pipeline and showroom/loaner inventory in Q3, likely because something new is coming and old-style inventory will depreciate, plus a pipeline full of cars means a lot of customer rejected cars if something better is announced. With the factory shutdown around now, Tesla is likely making improvements to the S & X presently. They need to announce this soon so they can take orders for Q4 and perhaps to minimize the number of orders they include this improvement for free, but they also want to delay the announcement so the massive amount of people that took delivery in just the last few weeks aren't as upset at just missing out. My guess is that the factory is starting to produce these updated cars now and they'll produce for showroom/inventory prior to the announcement after which custom orders will start, hence the lack of issued VINs recently.

So I think the "product" is the sensor suite for AP2. The physical sensor suite is indeed a "product" and then the "service" aspect of it will arrive via a future software update.

I also think this jives with recent statements by Elon that full autonomy is coming faster than most people realize. AP2 is not unexpected, but the timing of it is. Elon clearly thinks this.

I also expect Tesla to re-vamp their battery size offerings. With 100 as the top size, a lineup of 60 / 80 / 100 makes a lot of sense but the discontinuation of the MX 60 indicates that the 60 is on it's way out, so I think the new lineup will be 70 / 85 / 100. Other models will be discontinued once pack inventory is gone. A 70 base model that splits the price difference between the current 60 and 75 models would be a compelling offering.

 

[dalalsid]

Tesla lawnmower for the 17th - doubles as powerwall when not in use.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't know if this has been posted, but there is a reddit link that mentions that they think that the Tesla Glass .

My prediction for Oct 17: Tesla Glass • /r/teslamotors

""Many are predicting AP hardware updates or solar/power products for Oct 17. However, I think AP will be discussed later this year during Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal, and solar etc will be in the later Oct SolarCity/Tesla event.

Instead, I believe the Oct 17 event will be even more "unexpected" and be related to the 'Tesla Glass' project. Few people know exactly what it is, but I believe it is a refined, functional, and beautiful Heads-Up-Display (HUD) for Tesla vehicles. I also believe it will be retrofittable (via the new wiring harnesses) to refreshed Model S and X.

Here is a source on Tesla Glass: Tesla Glass: the electric automaker’s latest top-secret program""

He did mention spaceship?

I think many of us expect a HUD in M3 and I would say they would introduce that in S/X (the flagship products) before 3.... So definitely not impossible.

 

[EinSV]

As a technical note, for the $/kWh pricing, the inverters should be excluded from the calculation. The rating of inverters can greatly vary depending on the requirements of the system. In power intensive applications, with frequency response as one of the examples, the rating of inverters in kW can be 0.5 - 1 x the capacity rating of the batteries. For the fully dispatchable grid connected solar the ratio could be 0.25 x the capacity rating of the batteries. So if the pricing of the inverters is included in overall $/kWh, the two sample projects will have significantly different $/kWh, while actual price of the batteries used in them is identical.

So it is better to not include inverters in $/kWh, which is totally logical as their price is driven by the required power rating of the system, not the capacity (energy) rating of the batteries. Inverter pricing should be given in $/kW. The system pricing should include data for both $/kWh and $/kW, along with the energy (kWh) and power (kW) rating of the system

Thanks. For this example I was thinking in terms of $ per kWh since (1) GF production capacity is typically reported in GWh and (2) GF production capacity seems to be the limiting parameter. But your suggestion is a good one to avoid confusion.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Daimler plans to invest over $1 billion in batteries to support its electric vehicle plans

 

[Intl Professor]

Probably not news for those of you in the green movement, but here is an interesting idea to a newbie like me and a great commentary on the way government and industry have acted in the past but might act in future:

To build the future, change these 'stone wheels on a Tesla'

 

[larmor]

pls ignore if all ready posted:

Update on Tesla’s Combination with SolarCity

 

[Fallenone]

I'm not knowledgeable enough in the accounting world to answer your question, but one thing I think we can (just about) confirm from today's blog posting is that the SCTY acquisition will drive the improved cash position (and lack of need for a cash raise for 6 months). The line about unveiling more information about the financial details of the combined company on Nov 1 is a dead giveaway.

I'm putting very high odds on Tesla monetizing the SCTY future cash flows. Then use this huge influx of cash now to grow Tesla at a high rate of speed. The return on scaling Tesla up quickly will greatly outpace whatever discount rate is applied to the monetization of the SCTY cash flows. You better believe Elon had this planned out in his head for years as he studied the SCTY financial statements in the boardroom. What looked like a huge mistake at the time - acquiring a beaten down cash flow negative company right in the middle of ramping the factory to produce Model 3 - could actually end up being hailed as the most brilliant move in recent Tesla history.

We are playing checkers, Elon is playing chess.

I was against the merger in June and some time in July but came to terms later in July too. SCTY's negative cash flow is largely due to spending on growth. This spending is necessary for SCTY when standing alone, but not if it's part of TSLA. SCTY can simply stop growing at the speed they did and with some reconstruction it's basically a cash cow for TSLA. While the net cash flow may not be huge, the incoming cash flow can be used to back additional lending when TSLA needs the most.

 

[Papafox]

Observation: TSLA levitating on no volume. No appetite on short side to bring it down significantly, which should be easy at this point. Small sell batches push SP a bit down.

No longs either, but even 8K shares moved stock 40c up.

Once longs regain some appetite, this may really fly. Not sure what will cause it, but it seems psychology of the market changed from previous days.

Part of the explanation for low volume is that SCTY is pulling away some of the buying from TSLA. Once the arbitrage number shrinks more, we'll see a return to TSLA buying.

 

[Jayjs20]

I'm surprised TSLA is rising on such low volume. Bears went back to hibernating?

 

[Tslynk67]

Please allow me to demonstrate: "Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States, killing more than 600,000 people each year." Heart Disease Statistics & Maps | cdc.gov . By way of comparison, annual US motor vehicle traffic related fatalities are roughly 36,000. So yes, AP buttering toast will cause an increase of human consumption of dairy fat and the resulting increased instance of heart disease will trigger a series of lawsuits and will prove to be the ultimate 'Tesla Killer'. I challenge John Petersen to top that one ;-)

Personally, I'm hoping for a truck or X version of a utility vehicle.

Except it's the toast that's causing the heart disease, not the butter...

 

[techmaven]

Daimler plans to invest over $1 billion in batteries to support its electric vehicle plans

A careful reading of the Automotive News article:
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...to-rein-in-investments-after-evs-prompt-surge

shows that this $1 billion is not new investment. It includes the ridiculous amount of $543.5 million investment into ACCUmotive. They will have 430,000 square feet of production space with that investment to assemble battery packs from cells sourced elsewhere. That's a huge amount of money to spend to get so little out of it. They will source cells from SKI (the manufacturer of the batteries for the exploding Samsung phones and the Kia Soul EV). As a result, SKI is expanding from 700 MWh of capacity to almost 900 MWh of capacity. Yay! That's about enough to build 15,000 60 kWh BEVs.

 

[dakh]

Got a lottery ticket, Nov 4 $200 call. Expensive!

 

[Navin]

with today's announcement and trading action - feeling pretty good about TSLA and SCTY sitting in a tree and producing a combined entity -- took the plunge and bought a bunch of SCTY stock -- TSLA shares on sale is what I see as a nice little ARB play -- somewhat of a gamble but so is investing in any equity security -- hope is I can make enough out of this trade to pay for a 2 year lease on a TSLA proving solar power can do amazing things..