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This is the short term forum and I agree that Tesla has the brand appeal and ability to build desirable products to keep it profitable in the short term. In the long term, I think the Model 3 execution is crucial to the reputation and future sales of the company. I also think there is a good change that the leadership at Tesla may have the long view (10 years) in mind and be willing to invest the R&D in the hopes of becoming a mainstream automaker, even if that means poor short term stock.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah. Tesla's a growth stock. Guidance should be for losta growth (sizzle). If it's soft, then you get LinkedIn price action I guess
Tesla Q4 should be at expectations (the steak is good)
Yeah.. I miss CapOp and sleepyhead too...
It's not just about the electric part, but about the whole car. Look at the Model X issues. No it's not the drive train that's causing delays, it's stuff that every ICE car has, too. Sure the Falcon Wing Doors are one special case, but trim alignments, small electronics, rattles, body panels etc. YOU NEED PROTOTYPES. If the Model 3 is steel then corrosion also will be a much bigger factor.
A lot of that can be done in the lab. But to figure out stamping, trims and perfect interior fits you have to build the cars.
I would be seriously worried about the Model 3 launch (date) if we don't see prototypes very soon. Model X prototypes were far too late.
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Thank you:biggrin: . Big fan, just made a balance transfer bought my first shares :biggrin: TM needs us and we need TM
Krugerrand
Meow
Non-issue. Everyone knows how to deal with steel cars; undercoating and yearly oil spraying.
Is that sarcasm? I ask because even here in Ontario, where we lay salt faster than McDonald's, very few do yearly oil spaying. Factory undercoat is pretty much just for trucks as well. We expect cars to survive at least ten years bareback, and punish companies like Mazda that don't engineer for that.
sub
Active Member
I was on a short break from the forums when things went bad for sleepyhead, still don't know the full story, maybe I'm completely mistaken.
If you consider the hiring and budgeting process Tesla goes through, I think their estimate of R&D costs should be much more accurate than what either you or I can guess with our available information.
That said, consider that in 2015 Tesla was spending R&D big time on Tesla Energy, Model X, Model 3, and autopilot. This car might be quite a bit further along than either of us suspect. Since Elon made his 2016 R&D reduction estimate, the likely R&D for autopilot had expanded, but probably not so much as to tip the scales. In 2016, Tesla Energy will likely see less R&D (since they have usable products now), Model X will see a huge reduction, and Model 3 will see continued R&D. The heavy lifting R&D for production will likely spin up later in 2016 and really get going in 2017.
Model 3 will indeed be a simpler car than either Model S or Model X. That simplicity and the ability to reuse existing technologies should make Model 3 significantly easier to create than previous Teslas, meaning less R&D required than an engineering monster such as Model X.
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Rare to see you here Bonnie. Figured you'd be too busy driving the impossible car to build
Bonnie sold the signature and hasn't taken possession of her Founders yet, which is literally impossible to build for Tesla since she hasn't confirmed the configuration yet...
I would be very happy to see that happen:wink: But most likely you'll get big enough timing window to buy low and can't exclude possibility to go even lower
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I also think it's oversold and should up 15-20 points from today's low before ER. So I bought some shares pre-market @ 169 today. Very long time no see such bargin!
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Well, there is just so much they can invest for R&D. They are not going to invest as much as Toyota does for their next Corolla. It is about doing the most with what you have. Also, they managed to develop both S and X on a small budget so I don't see why they could not do the same with Model 3.
You are right of course that they need to control the supply chain and cost control much better, and that requires more resources and work in those areas. But they can still do the beta launch they did with X and solve things as they go. The main objection I had with your statement was that you said they have to execute much better with respect to delays and customers for their vision to be intact and the survival of the company. I just don't see this being the case. In what way would Tesla go under if the first 10000 customers of Model 3 would have a bad experience similar to the early adopters of Model S and X? Their reputation would suffer but there is 490000 other customer that had a good experience, just as all Model S customers have now.
It did come in AH. Maybe tomorrow early trading session again.
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Still not get used to SP start with "1" :biggrin:. Corrected it.
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Still not get used to SP start with "1" :biggrin:. Corrected it.
Tesla's plan is for 500,000 cars a year only three years after production on the 3; That leaves very little room for any hand made parts or engineering solutions that are not completely tested. A problem found two years down the road, could affect a quarter million cars. Tesla also won't have the Luxury of throwing money at any problems; An extra 5 thousand to build the X might not be a problem, an extra 5 thousand to build the 3 could turn the whole company upside down.
Lastly, The american market has been full of new desirable brands that gain popularity, but fizzle off due to lack of reliability (Alfa, Jaguar, Mini). The companies that have put R&D and reliability first, like the Japanese, seem a better path to follow.
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In order to keep this conversation on topic; imagine that there were no early adopters, no "greenies" too...
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Yeah, you are right about the risk of a problem being discovered when the Model 3 fleet is large. I would probably add that as a risk for Model 3, I don't expect them to increase pre-release testing with a huge factor to avoid it, mainly because I don't think they will have the resources and time to do so. However, they will have data from technology and manufacturing from S and X that would lessen this risks to a degree. But yeah, I think it is more likely unfortunately that they do too little testing as oppose to too much.
There is a trade-off between technology and fast iterations on one hand and reliability on the other. For example, the German cars have not been as reliable as the Asian ones but have had a couple of years lead in technology and design. Tesla seems to be more like them, and I don't think they can change that with their limited resources. It is also a part of their culture to move fast.
The early adopters are a reality so I don't see how it would help to imagine them not to be. Tesla would not have survived without them. And there is a large number of people that would pay extra in various ways because of the environment aspect of using a BEV.
There is a trade-off between technology and fast iterations on one hand and reliability on the other. For example, the German cars have not been as reliable as the Asian ones but have had a couple of years lead in technology and design. Tesla seems to be more like them, and I don't think they can change that with their limited resources. It is also a part of their culture to move fast.
The early adopters are a reality so I don't see how it would help to imagine them not to be. Tesla would not have survived without them. And there is a large number of people that would pay extra in various ways because of the environment aspect of using a BEV.
As I am young, with my own companies; I don't invest and to me all of this is a hypothetical discussion. If I had money to spare I would invest in Tesla right now as I see this as a low. I don't see extreme highs in the future as I think Tesla has extreme challenges to come. I see TSLA at 260 a year from now, 290 2 years from now and 380, 3 years from now. (give or take market flux)
larmor
Active Member
From prior conference calls, it was mentioned that M3 development was in parallel to MX. That should assuage fears of wasting time. And clearly to ramp up to 500k annual volume, will require planning several years in advance.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
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