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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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What is the Silevo [IP] issue?
SolarCity Is Being Sued for Intellectual Property Theft (Sep 27, 2016):
"Cogenra’s complaint fails to identify any actual trade secret that Cogenra owns, much less that SolarCity supposedly misappropriated, SolarCity said."

Seems like a whole lot of nothing or not much, but this Panasonic partnership does these things to that issue:
  • Reduces its value leverage, in case anybody decides it is real (so Silevo can claim the lost benefit to Cogenra is 0 to not much, since they're going with Panasonic tech): Silevo can say "ok, so, if this is at all real, we don't use it, and your lost value is 0 from us. Cut a deal with us that we like, and we'll start using our Silevo tech."
  • Derisks this potential issue
  • Gives negotiating power to Silevo to cut a deal with Cogenra if that's appropriate, or for them to take a hike if that's appropriate, and really for Silevo (Solar City (Tesla)) to not give a flying f. If it is that Cogenra is blowing hot air (and is actually trying to steal IP from Solar City), then even then, this is no longer a speed bump.
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Fortune reminds me that Solar City is on a roll (Sep 13, 2016): SolarCity, Berkshire’s NV Energy Settle Nevada Rooftop Solar Dispute

i.e., people try to throw stuff in the way of Solar City, and it says "ok, solved, what's next?"
So the factory (which they don't own) and patents are worth of 2 billion?
Plus selling solar leases, turning them into cash.
Tesla is a real estate company now? There is denial, and then there is denial.
Excuse me? This is like generations old news, practically before Elon was born: Intel has been a real estate concern for its chips for decades, running its factories as hotels for the machines. Same with Tesla GF1 with Panasonic & now SC GF. As has been pointed out by people who read the financials, that's how it's legally structured: same old stuff. The agreement talks about purchasing by Tesla from Panasonic. The fact that they are facilitating the factory real estate helps to wed the deal. I bet this is the way things have been done in Silicon Valley for longer than I've been alive, or at the very least, for a very long time. I'm not very versed in the details of this way of doing business, but I do know it's established practice for a long time.

Not to mention that this, oh I don't know, might have been material information that should have been disclosed sometime???
I said before that this is like asking them to park the cart before the horse in your house (or barn) before they even left their house (or barn): they were still negotiating. Postscript: I forgot to add to that: that your supposition is doubly silly because it presupposes that this Panasonic PV partnership could possibly be construed in some type of negative light; they don't have a fiduciary duty to shorts. They are supposed to succeed, even if you have conflicting considerations.

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I feel like I'm playing ping pong :) . Work tomorrow will be a let down. Time for bed :(
 
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Tesla is a real estate company now? There is denial, and then there is denial.
Really... That's the best you can do? So if Pana got some manufacturing space/capacity in exchange for help in scaling manufacturing and giving Tesla a shortcut on PV manufacturing expertise, that makes Tesla a real estate company? I'm sorry, did Tesla announce they will no longer manufacture any PV products in Buffalo just lease the empty factory to Pana entirely?
 
No, I understand the reasoning I guess I just don't agree. Credibility is not about delaying a (presumably) minor announcement by a couple days. It's about making and delivering on promises that matter. I'm more focused on the actual content of promises rather than the timing, especially when you consider everything tesla is doing is on the cutting edge and he has to figure everything out for the first time so the rest of the world can attempt to follow him. When I look at the things that matter, tesla always delivers and yes, it still counts if they are late.

Then I look to a company like Audi, who seems to release EVs on paper only every couple months then kills them. That's a real lack of credibility.

Bringing it back to SP, Wall Street isn't going to care about two days here. Shorts will latch onto it for ten minutes tomorrow but they latch onto literally everything, relevant or not. Obviously, there's no lasting impact here. If tesla starts habitually missing SEC filings or blowing off earnings calls or other things that actually matter from wall streets point of view then we can start talking about a lack of credibility. For now, I'm not clutching my pearls.
Every word counts towards one's credibility. Whether its a 2 day delay in a product announcement, or no need to raise capital in Q4.
 
So the factory (which they don't own) and patents are worth of 2 billion?

There is the revenue streams for the next 20 years plus the installation network.

And they have the master lease on the factory for the next 20 years for $20.

Elon does not want to contract out installing solar roof or integrated rooftop solar, powerwall, EVSE solution to mom and pop shops. Everything is made by Tesla or Panasonic and installed by Tesla and warrantied by Tesla. Got a problem with anything? Call Tesla. No fighting between installer or solar panel,inverter, controller, or energy storage company as to who is at fault.
 
In my view, the primary benefit to aquiring Solar City is that Tesla gets access to a large network of solar installers. Basically, to put a Powerwall in every home, and powerpacks in every commercial building, Tesla will need boots on the ground. And of course, while they're doing the storage, they might as well install some solar, regardless of whether the panels are produced by Panasonic or anyone else.
 
Really, I can see it happening that Pana will move to GF and have it all under one roof with Powerwall.
I am using Pana panels (in earlier days they were called SANYO). Damn strong must say... in more than one way e.g. I could even walk on them. They are very popular in Germany and survived the cheap imports from China because of their efficiency and quality etc. while a dozent of local cell manufacutorer in Germany unfortunatly were forced to close down.
My Panels are made in Hungary, BTW. After 10 years I do not notice any drop in power.
 
What??? Did I miss a press release? SolarCity PV tech is dumped in favor of Panasonic's? Where di you read that?

Panasonic PV cells and modules boast industry-leading power generation performance, and achieve high quality and reliability. We expect that the collaboration talks will lead to growth of the Tesla and Panasonic relationship.

No mention of the SolarCity tech. The fact that this press release came from Tesla and not SolarCity is also telling...
 
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Reactions: callmesam
Panasonic PV cells and modules boast industry-leading power generation performance, and achieve high quality and reliability. We expect that the collaboration talks will lead to growth of the Tesla and Panasonic relationship.

No mention of the SolarCity tech. The fact that this press release came from Tesla and not SolarCity is also telling...
Great. So the answer to my question? Because other then Panasonic boasting about their own credits in this business, i don`t see any indication the Silevo technology failed and needed to be replaced.

EDIT: just to be clear, I am not saying there is absolutely no chance of what you guys are saying. But from the PR so far that is a very very far fetched conclusion. In the worst case scenario, if that was the case, we would still be in a better position with Pana technology ready for production right now, then Tesla scrambling to fix Silevo`s. The question would then be if SCTY is still worth as much or not (probably would need to be adjusted down, but not zero as some of you imply). But still, I think that's a very unlikely scenario.
 
I hope we can clamp down on panic attacks and think rationally.

I did not see any mentioning of the solar roof in the Pana collaboration press release. I also have hard time to believe that the solar roof announcement (the 28th) is off. I further have to believe that solar roof type of the system costs more to manufacture than the conventional solar modules. There is demand in the market for both.

So rational conclusion would be that Tesla will have two product lines for their solar energy system: one incorporating solar roof based on Silevo technology and another incorporating the best and most efficient conventional solar cells from Pana.

Nothing is out of the window. Everybody is in. Tesla secured production of the components for their solar energy system, at the factory that will cost them $1 per year to lease, seemingly without any requirements for cash outlays.

Looking forward for posts starting with "Except..." in 3, 2, 1...
 
Great. So the answer to my question? Because other then Panasonic boasting about their own credits in this business, i don`t see any indication the Silevo technology failed and needed to be replaced.

What we have is a Tesla press release about PV manufacturing that praises SolarCity's capabilities as a sales organisation. Something nearly everyone here is in agreement needs to be canned and replaced by Tesla retail as soon as possible. But does not deem worthy to mention SolarCity's PV manufacturing technology. It's not very hard to connect the dots.
 
What we have is a Tesla press release about PV manufacturing that praises SolarCity's capabilities as a sales organisation. Something nearly everyone here is in agreement needs to be canned and replaced by Tesla retail as soon as possible. But does not deem worthy to mention SolarCity's PV manufacturing technology. It's not very hard to connect the dots.

Not very hard indeed. The mention did not single out sales, it was installation, sales and financing.

There are obviously two sales groups in SolarCity: one for residential and small commercial, another for large scale utility type grid connected solar. I believe that they are eliminating the first group replacing it with sales personnel at the Tesla stores. The second sales group stays intact (I doubt utility customers coming to Tesla store shopping for grid scale solar farm).

The large scale solar farm sales group will be exactly the group used to sell Pana solar cell based, Tesla branded solar energy system. The Tesla stores will sell Silevo solar roof based solar energy systems.
 
What we have is a Tesla press release about PV manufacturing that praises SolarCity's capabilities as a sales organisation. Something nearly everyone here is in agreement needs to be canned and replaced by Tesla retail as soon as possible. But does not deem worthy to mention SolarCity's PV manufacturing technology. It's not very hard to connect the dots.
The PR definitely is about Panasonic PV as the quote from Panasonic indicates that. This may be due to offsetting risk associated with the solar roof product.

Definitely doesn't look good for SolarCity capabilities.
 
There are 703,331 shares available for shorting at Fidelity, interest continues to slide, now at 9.25%, indicating that availability of shares for shorting is growing.

There are 1,166,395 shares available for shorting at Fidelity, with continuing slide down in interest rate, down to 7.5%. It is obvious that availability of shares for shorting continue to grow.
 
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