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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Just posted on Tesla.....Tesla and Panasonic have entered into a non-binding letter of intent under which they will begin collaborating on the manufacturing and production of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules in Buffalo, New York. Under this agreement, which is contingent upon shareholders' approval of Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity, Tesla will use the cells and modules in a solar energy system that will work seamlessly with Powerwall and Powerpack, Tesla’s energy storage products. With the aid of sales and financing capabilities from SolarCity, Tesla will bring an integrated sustainable energy solution to residential, commercial, and grid-scale customers.
The parties intend for Panasonic to begin PV cell and module production at the Buffalo facility in 2017. Tesla intends to provide a long-term purchase commitment for those cells from Panasonic.

The collaboration extends the established relationship between Tesla and Panasonic, which includes the production of electric vehicle and grid storage battery cells at Tesla’s Gigafactory.

JB Straubel, Chief Technical Officer and Co-founder of Tesla, said “We are excited to expand our partnership with Panasonic as we move towards a combined Tesla and SolarCity. By working together on solar, we will be able to accelerate production of high-efficiency, extremely reliable solar cells and modules at the best cost.”

Shuuji Okayama, Vice-president, Eco Solutions Company of Panasonic, added, “Panasonic PV cells and modules boast industry-leading power generation performance, and achieve high quality and reliability. We expect that the collaboration talks will lead to growth of the Tesla and Panasonic relationship.”

The continued partnership between Tesla and Panasonic is an important step in creating fully-integrated energy products for businesses, home owners and utilities, and furthers Tesla’s mission toward a sustainable energy future.

OK, so, I guess awesome!?? Bringing Panasonic increases perception Buffalo will work.

But, also, is this another proof SCTY has nothing of value, except for basically free contract on an empty shell of the (admittedly) big factory? I mean, SCTY will abandon current business model (leasing), sell existing revenue streams, lay off marketing/sales, rely on new products (solar roof) and now abandon attempts to manufacture PV. Why the **** will we pay ~$2B or so for them? What's there? Existing revenue streams that are about equal or lesser than existing debt, new unproven product and thousands of people that will need to be laid off, and management that got them here... That's not $2B

And btw, about product announcement moved 2 days; please remember than Elon's two days usually look like a week to the rest of us!
 
Panasonic coming on board to partner with Tesla Energy and committing to expansion of the capacity of solar production in Buffalo in addition to the existing Gigafactory partnership is very encouraging. They have been cautious and often slow in confirmation of their support for expansion in the past. While Elon might see demand for > 1GW (current projected Buffalo factory output) every time he sees the sun shine, Panasonic would require more due diligence - especially during a time when there is excess supply of modules on the market. It will be interesting to see what the scope and scale of the new production and the level of financial commitment looks like.

Tesla is essentially allowing Panasonic to piggy back on something they were set up to accomplish in-house....not Tesla's usual SOP...the plot thickens.
 
Electrek.co has a story up about the transaction but has little details so far.
Tesla announces new partnership with Panasonic to manufacture solar panels at SolarCity’s Buffalo ‘Gigafactory’

Two paragraphs from their story:
"The state of New York invested $750 million in the plant, which it actually owns and rents to SolarCity at virtually no cost, but the company has to heavily invest in hiring locally to staff the plant and its whole operations in New York.

SolarCity got the deal from its acquisition of Silevo, a solar cells and modules manufacturer, and it was supposed to build its own modules at the plant, which makes this new deal between Tesla and Panasonic particularly interesting and raises a few questions."
 
1) Neither Tesla nor Solar City have experience manufacturing PV cells and panels.

2) SC GF is not an empty shell. It comes full of manufacturing equipment and it can be expanded to 5x original size once hiring and revenue goals are met all at the expense of New York State Taxpayers. SC/Tesla are only responsible for cost overruns above $750M for the original plant. The $750M budget includes equipment.

3) We don't know if Panasonic will manufacture Pansonic ,Silevo or some combination cells/panels.
 
OK, so, I guess awesome!?? Bringing Panasonic increases perception Buffalo will work.

But, also, is this another proof SCTY has nothing of value, except for basically free contract on an empty shell of the (admittedly) big factory? I mean, SCTY will abandon current business model (leasing), sell existing revenue streams, lay off marketing/sales, rely on new products (solar roof) and now abandon attempts to manufacture PV. Why the **** will we pay ~$2B or so for them? What's there? Existing revenue streams that are about equal or lesser than existing debt, new unproven product and thousands of people that will need to be laid off, and management that got them here... That's not $2B

And btw, about product announcement moved 2 days; please remember than Elon's two days usually look like a week to the rest of us!

Actually I get it now. Like a lot of startups, SCTY figured current business model doesn't work; they needed to pivot and change business model. Elon didn't want to make this process public, so under Tesla's name he's keeping couple of useful parts of SCTY (financing, installation, factory, new product plans), and getting rid of the rest, including attempts to build manufacturing know-how. Hence the Panasonic.

Panasonic may even build Silevo panels (or not - shrug), what they bring is knowledge of how to setup efficient manufacturing. And they probably bring cash. In return, they have no risk situation, buyer for all the PVs they make, and probably quite attractive ROI

Again, I don't see SCTY being $2B+ under this scenario
 
This is out of left field. I thought Silevo had the best tech for cells and Tesla the manufacturing know-how. Is Panasonic's product going to replace Silevo? What does Panasonic really bring to the table?

I don't see this as replacing the Silevo technology. SolarCity bought Silevo, so that technology is part of what SolarCity/Tesla bring to the table. I see Panasonic as mostly bringing highly automated manufacturing machines.
 
Electrek.co has a story up about the transaction but has little details so far.
Tesla announces new partnership with Panasonic to manufacture solar panels at SolarCity’s Buffalo ‘Gigafactory’

Two paragraphs from their story:
"The state of New York invested $750 million in the plant, which it actually owns and rents to SolarCity at virtually no cost, but the company has to heavily invest in hiring locally to staff the plant and its whole operations in New York.

SolarCity got the deal from its acquisition of Silevo, a solar cells and modules manufacturer, and it was supposed to build its own modules at the plant, which makes this new deal between Tesla and Panasonic particularly interesting and raises a few questions."
Maybe they are going to put a panasonic battery to the back of each solar panel...
 
Note this sentence in the release

"Tesla intends to provide a long-term purchase commitment for those cells from Panasonic."

Sounds like Panasonic is going to build their PV cells all by themselves, like they did with the 18650. If Silevo has anything role to play, it may be technology transfer to Panasonic.

I have worries about "long-term purchase commitment". With the sales team from SCTY fired, is TSLA stores enough to support this commitment?
 
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