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Teslas car business has never ever ever been better. The path towards model 3 is a no brainer,
and backed by hundreds of thousand of reservations making it easy to raise
Money if necessary.
Solarcity is not a no brainer, it seems few understand
The business and where it is going, the financing, the product,
and whether the synergies will pan out.
and backed by hundreds of thousand of reservations making it easy to raise
Money if necessary.
Solarcity is not a no brainer, it seems few understand
The business and where it is going, the financing, the product,
and whether the synergies will pan out.
No one was claiming it was going to go up yesterday (besides you). I just wanted you to stop whining.
Which you did, for as long as I stayed in the thread anyways, and I thank you for it.
Volume is actually trending average for the day. Not sure what's happening but I think people are just selling the news into Wednesday.
Runarbt
Active Member
Or shorts pushing down to kill any momentum on anticipation kmon the upcoming news.
How many shares available to borrow now? Whats the rate?
Minor point, but they didn't swap out Insane with Ludicrous, both are in use.
As far as the "Autopilot" word being banned for use, it isn't a big deal, easy to change. It just looks bad and lends the impression to the uninformed that Tesla's AP isn't good or exaggerated, etc. In the long run, it's a bump in the road, but in the short run, it may help bring the stock price down a bit.
I didn't mean to imply that. I should have said that if Elon continues to mismanage his PR and the stock continues to fall, then he is setting himself up for a strike suit, meritorious or not. But I do agree that just bad communications is a slender thread to hang a strike suit on, but bad communications often masks underlying business difficulties. It may be that these odd things that are happening are due to difficult issues within the company that we don't know about. Or not.
Let's not forget that one party has a 20+ year policy of demeaning their opponents, even to the point of fabrication and lies. I suspect one of the major party candidates for president would be much more popular if she had not been subjected to the "perpetual campaign". As an academic, you likely already know this.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I don't think it's big players, rather, weak retail investors.
Yeah, I think the big players are sitting around like the rich uncle, letting the shorts rough up the weaker retail investors and then the big players pick up more TSLA at sale prices before the ER. This strikes me as a seriously-dumb time to be selling TSLA.
Couple analysts notes today, summary via Seeking Alpha:
Barclays seem to be begrudgingly dialing back their negativity:
Baird Stays positive:
Barclays seem to be begrudgingly dialing back their negativity:
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has “potential short-term upside” given upcoming product announcements that may “set up a ‘yes’ vote for the SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) merger, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson writes in note.
- Upside may be followed by “downward drift as investors contemplate cash needs” of the combined company.
- Barclays still expects a fund raise this year despite Elon Musk's insistence to the contrary.
Baird Stays positive:
- Baird backs its Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (TSLA -1.8%). Bordering on the trivial, but the PT is actually just about at the halfway point from the Street high mark of $500 from Dougherty and the $160 pegged by Cowen and Company.
- The Baird team expects Q3 non-GAAP revenue of $2.408B vs. $2.340B consensus. The forecast for Q3 gross automotive margin is 21.0% vs. 22.22%. The investment firm sees EPS of $0.27 vs. $0.06 consensus.
- There's a sense that Baird wants to ride the wave on the lightning rod stock, with it predicting that updates on the Gigafactory will serve as a driver of investor enthusiasm.
- "We expect to hear updates on the production ramp and potential full production capacity of the factory on the Q3 call and at the opening event on January 4," writes analysts Ben Kallo and Tyler Frank. Of course, there's also a product announcement and merger vote to watch this month.
You have said negative things about Tesla or the valuation or the short term outlook for the stock.
For some people here that means you have made mistakes, even if your facts are correct.
It is a mistake to be negative about anything. Don't you see the bigger picture?
Unlike people who get support for talking about how the SP will break through to $220, then $240 and onwards to the $1T valuation. Funny, they never get called out by the majority here for their mistaken forecasts.
Similar to the analyst "analysis" here:
- Stock should hit $450. The person is a visionary and of course would never say that to support their long position.
- Stock should hit $170. The person doesn't get it and is only trying to drive down the price so they can load up more. Or they are an evil short.
Confirmation bias. How does that work?
Anyway, thanks for your posts.
bdy0627
Active Member
This SCTY merger is certainly a drag for the short term TSLA SP. This post reminds me very much of the posts you encounter on the SCTY thread. A lack of understanding/clarity/transparency about SCTY and its solar business. Now that baton has been passed to TSLA and it looks like it will slow down TSLA substantially from where it might otherwise be. Could the timing for Tesla have been any worse for a major and uncertain merger? Had they waited until 2018 things might have been very different. However, it seems like SCTY would not have survived the wait. That raises a very reasonable question about how smart of a move this is for Tesla. It's 2 fold: 1. Timing for Tesla, 2. Health of SCTY. In the end, this may not be so much of a problem for Longs but this is the short term thread. What Longs see as opportunities when the SP dips, short term traders view differently. Namely, is there a better place for their money in the short term? I don't personally see any compelling reason to sell some shares now. However, If the SP does not respond favorably to the catalysts over the next month then you have to question how long it will be before the SP recovers. It could be many months and in that case, there are better short term investments out there. As a fan of Tesla, I'm hopeful we see some recovery over the next month.
Disclaimer: I am very unhappy with my portfolio due to TSLA.
I'm hoping the solar roof reveal makes me feel better about this situation. However, I find myself hearing more and more merit to the dissenting voices regarding SCTY. Assuming the liquidation of solar leases does in fact break us even on SCTYs debt. We are still paying 2bn for it. For this dollar amount we could easily acquire tech, silveo was a couple hundred million dollars if I recall correctly. Perhaps another $150mm in performance incentives. The buffalo GF is at present a $750mm value. Given the information available to us currently, I feel as though we are paying a premium for the time value alone.
If for some reason as a standalone proposition Tesla were to decide entering the solar market makes sense.. I suppose we save time creating the infrastructure. However, I would be VERY surprised to see Tesla take a swing at solar without SCTYs involvement. At least at this critical time. This decision has significantly reduced the share price. The results of which we've discussed endlessly, so I'll avoid repeating.
Elon needs to provide a financial and product churrascaria style experience. If he doesn't bury us in steak over the next several weeks, I think many of us will be very sad. In the meantime, I'm holding through the pain.
I'm hoping the solar roof reveal makes me feel better about this situation. However, I find myself hearing more and more merit to the dissenting voices regarding SCTY. Assuming the liquidation of solar leases does in fact break us even on SCTYs debt. We are still paying 2bn for it. For this dollar amount we could easily acquire tech, silveo was a couple hundred million dollars if I recall correctly. Perhaps another $150mm in performance incentives. The buffalo GF is at present a $750mm value. Given the information available to us currently, I feel as though we are paying a premium for the time value alone.
If for some reason as a standalone proposition Tesla were to decide entering the solar market makes sense.. I suppose we save time creating the infrastructure. However, I would be VERY surprised to see Tesla take a swing at solar without SCTYs involvement. At least at this critical time. This decision has significantly reduced the share price. The results of which we've discussed endlessly, so I'll avoid repeating.
Elon needs to provide a financial and product churrascaria style experience. If he doesn't bury us in steak over the next several weeks, I think many of us will be very sad. In the meantime, I'm holding through the pain.
Experienced investors know that this is how Tesla works.
They have seen this play out before - most recently with the Master Plan 2.
IIRC, didn't this announcement happen around the time that the Goldman downgrade happened? What a surprise!
Well, earnings on the 26th will probably give a preview on SCTY matters as I'm sure they will be asked (including Panasonic involvement).
The 28th will cover actual products to be available from the combined company.
And Nov 1 presentation will cover the financial aspects of the merger.
So, I'd say Elon has committed to doing exactly what you ask - discuss all relevant aspects of the merger in short order. It is puzzling to me that people are already writing the obituary on the merger before even learning what caused Elon to make the purchase in the first place. I know as well as anyone that the SP performance has sucked lately, but that doesn't mean the merger is a bad idea - it means that WS dislikes uncertainty and risks. Now, if we get to Nov 2 and the announcements fall short - by all means, register your displeasure. I haven't voted my shares yet for a reason.
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