Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Intl Professor]

I've just voted online our shares in Solar City after e-mail notice from Schwab. This time I noticed two votes through proxyvote as we have two accounts with shares of SCTY. That prompted looking at an earlier notice re the TSLA shares and learned there were actually two notices, not just the one I voted, for the TSLA vote, but for our other account (we have two with TSLA as well). Of course they are now voted.

Someone earlier asked about multiple accounts. I damn near missed voting some shares because I didn't notice the first time Schwab issued the call for proxies in two accounts but delivered as one with two parts. Pfew, or whatever. That's probably the industry standard because I asked for e-mail confirmation they are recorded and will doubtless get other confirmations now.

 

[Papafox]

Here's today's trading chart for TSLA. I feel somewhat optimistic because the chart indicates that efforts put forth by the shorts to pull TSLA down in the afternoon were overcome by longs ready to buy in at these prices. The shorts managed some shenanigans with the SP during the final 2 minutes of the day, but that's about all they could muster in the afternoon. Once you see an up-trend established with a couple days in the green, I think we could ride that uptrend until the day of the ER or the day before. While many of the "true believers" are out of dry powder at the moment, there are indeed investors waiting on the sidelines for the red to end and the green to begin before they jump in. Let it happen soon, and let the green beget more green.

 

[schonelucht]

Here's today's trading chart for TSLA. I feel somewhat optimistic because the chart indicates that efforts put forth by the shorts to pull TSLA down in the afternoon were overcome by longs ready to buy in at these prices.

Why do you think the downward pressure was due to shorting?

 

[Runarbt]

Why do you think the downward pressure was due to shorting?

With this many positive triggers lined up?

Its the only logical reason i can see. Shorts trying a pre-emptive strike against the positives. Try to make it look like "someone knows somthing, exiting large position ahead of some unknown negative".

 

[KLC13]

Nothing against Germany not liking the name, they have valid concerns and have the right to act proactively. However they should also show similar (or much greater) level of concern to the blatant lies and crappy products sold by VW in the name of fine German engineering. Those emissions have harmed a lot more people than 'autopilot'..

 

[Leo9]

Tesla to create another Gigafactory-type deal with Panasonic through SolarCity Buffalo plant, Silevo is still in play

[...]
A SolarCity spokesperson sent us the following statement:

“SolarCity/Silevo technology remains an important and applicable component of the end solar module. Both SolarCity/Silevo and Panasonic have been working on similar cell architecture on similar process equipment already. Together we will combine the best cell components from both and integrate them into the new solar module that will be produced in Buffalo, NY. Manufacturing is expected to begin during the summer of 2017. “

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Now I know why they call it the Apple graveyard.

No Jony Ive Apple Car Commercials as Project Titan Blows an Engine

I think this underscores the difficulty of automobile mass production. Apple has 200B+ in cash (much of it overseas, but still could be spent on suppliers and overseas R&D), and massive steady income from consumer electronics.

That didn't compensate for lack of institutional knowledge, management problems, and unclear vision.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla to create another Gigafactory-type deal with Panasonic through SolarCity Buffalo plant, Silevo is still in play

[...]
A SolarCity spokesperson sent us the following statement:

“SolarCity/Silevo technology remains an important and applicable component of the end solar module. Both SolarCity/Silevo and Panasonic have been working on similar cell architecture on similar process equipment already. Together we will combine the best cell components from both and integrate them into the new solar module that will be produced in Buffalo, NY. Manufacturing is expected to begin during the summer of 2017. “

Everybody is in. Nothing is out. Q.E.D.

"The SolarCity representative said that technology the company developed with Silevo will still be used in the solar cells and modules, but it will combine its effort with Panasonic to manufacture them and the end product will still be a “SolarCity/Silevo module”.

 

[schonelucht]

Call me a cynic, but that seems exactly the kind of hedged statement SolarCity is good at to hide the house that is crumbling around them. O well, everyone reads things how it suits their view best, me included. Best case we still have to face the fact that Silevo tech is hardly exceptional given that a third party was independently doing similar work.

 

[myusername]

View attachment 199006
Here's today's trading chart for TSLA. I feel somewhat optimistic because the chart indicates that efforts put forth by the shorts to pull TSLA down in the afternoon were overcome by longs ready to buy in at these prices. The shorts managed some shenanigans with the SP during the final 2 minutes of the day, but that's about all they could muster in the afternoon. Once you see an up-trend established with a couple days in the green, I think we could ride that uptrend until the day of the ER or the day before. While many of the "true believers" are out of dry powder at the moment, there are indeed investors waiting on the sidelines for the red to end and the green to begin before they jump in. Let it happen soon, and let the green beget more green.

can you provide any evidence "the shorts managed some shenanigans"? and "the share price moved down" is not evidence.

 

[pGo]

Tesla to create another Gigafactory-type deal with Panasonic through SolarCity Buffalo plant, Silevo is still in play

[...]
A SolarCity spokesperson sent us the following statement:

“SolarCity/Silevo technology remains an important and applicable component of the end solar module. Both SolarCity/Silevo and Panasonic have been working on similar cell architecture on similar process equipment already. Together we will combine the best cell components from both and integrate them into the new solar module that will be produced in Buffalo, NY. Manufacturing is expected to begin during the summer of 2017. “

This again seems like a way to bypass the lawsuit brought by khosla or at least to be on safer side.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Call me a cynic, but that seems exactly the kind of hedged statement SolarCity is good at to hide the house that is crumbling around them. O well, everyone reads things how it suits their view best, me included. Best case we still have to face the fact that Silevo tech is hardly exceptional given that a third party was independently doing similar work.

Maybe it would be easier if you would list what constitutes as proof for you than for us to suffer through every single shift of your story as the information comes to light.

Yesterday it was all "uhh, cat is out of the bag, that tweet surely means the Silevo tech was garbage and has now been replaced with Panasonic". Now it`s "ok, ok, so they said they would combine technologies and its still the Silevo tech + Pana, but this is really just a deflection".

Next thing you`ll tell us the whole thing is rigged and the only reason we see positive news is because of the media bias...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Call me a cynic, but that seems exactly the kind of hedged statement SolarCity is good at to hide the house that is crumbling around them. O well, everyone reads things how it suits their view best, me included. Best case we still have to face the fact that Silevo tech is hardly exceptional given that a third party was independently doing similar work.

Let's cut down on dramatic statements. "Hide the house that is crumbling around them"

The "hardly exceptional" argument sounds incredibly familiar - we've heard and keep hearing it for more than 10 years about Tesla/Panasonic battery cells and packs. You actually keep making this argument about TE. There is a major disconnect with reality here. The cornerstone of Tesla leadership in automobile space is battery cells/packs. If there is nothing exceptional going there and everybody and their mother in law have similar know how where the F is the competition?? Hello, it has been more than 10 years.

Let's hold the "hardly exceptional" argument until the 28th, when we see and hear about the solar roof.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Let's cut down on dramatic statements. "Hide the house that is crumbling around them"

The "hardly exceptional" argument sounds incredibly familiar - we've heard and keep hearing it for more than 10 years about Tesla/Panasonic battery cells and packs. You actually keep making this argument about TE. There is a major disconnect with reality here. The cornerstone of Tesla leadership in automobile space is battery cells/packs. If there is nothing exceptional going there and everybody and their mother in law have similar know how where the F is the competition?? Hello, it has been more than 10 years.

Let's hold the "hardly exceptional" argument until the 28th, when we see and hear about the solar roof.

Maybe you missed Audi`s latest announcement of their next-gen Tesla killer to be released 2 years from when you read this post (whenever you read it)?

 

[schonelucht]

The cornerstone of Tesla leadership in automobile space is battery cells/packs.

You are building a strawman here. I've never said that Tesla wasn't a leader in automobile. On the contrary. I've been consistently that their lead in automobiles is so large, that everything else like the whole solar panel thing is a distraction they don't need. Tesla needs to pound the automobile market with focus. Elon needs to be asking his retail team what went wrong in the last delivery cycle and what could be improved on the experience to make Model 3 launch even more compelling instead of burdening them with having to upsell a totally different product.

Let's hold the "hardly exceptional" argument until the 28th, when we see and hear about the solar roof.

At this point we're still waiting for Tesla Energy to show up in the quarterly financials. So let's not get ahead of ourselves with product announcements that may fail to turn out any significant revenue for the next two years despite a product announcement that has everyone gushing. Instead let's see if Q3 will contain the first Tesla Energy sales with 50% margins.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Q3 expectations are pretty low. According to MarketWatch:

"Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report a GAAP loss of 53 cents a share in the third quarter, which would be narrower than a GAAP loss of $1.78 a share in the third quarter of 2015.
Tesla is expected to report adjusted earnings of 5 cents a share in the quarter, however, reversing an adjusted loss of 58 cents a share in the year-ago period. "

According to Elon Q3 was Tesla's best quarter ever, so I have hard time to believe that Tesla will not beat Q1 2013 on EPS ($0.1 GAAP, $0.13 non-GAAP). I like this setup.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Gotta love that ridiculous orchestrated selloff we just had. Now the big boys have more cheap shares. Congrats to all those who can see through this.

 

[MitchJi]

We even reported on the company releasing the first picture of its own solar panel back in August. It also announced that the panel will achieve 22% efficiency and it will produce between 350 to 360-watt compared to the 260-watt panels SolarCity currently installed from suppliers.

I didn't know that the new panels are that much better!
,

 

[myusername]

Gotta love that ridiculous orchestrated selloff we just had. Now the big boys have more cheap shares. Congrats to all those who can see through this.

evidence please.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You are building a strawman here. I've never said that Tesla wasn't a leader in automobile. On the contrary. I've been consistently that their lead in automobiles is so large, that everything else like the whole solar panel thing is a distraction they don't need. Tesla needs to pound the automobile market with focus. Elon needs to be asking his retail team what went wrong in the last delivery cycle and what could be improved on the experience to make Model 3 launch even more compelling instead of burdening them with having to upsell a totally different product..

I am not building anything. I did not attribute this "nothing exceptional" argument in automotive space to you. Please read my post again. My point was that this argument as applied to TA has been around for more than decade and absolutely flies into the face of reality. What I said is that you applying this argument to TE and now Solar City / Silevo is as flawed as the same argument applied to TA

At this point we're still waiting for Tesla Energy to show up in the quarterly financials. So let's not get ahead of ourselves with product announcements that may fail to turn out any significant revenue for the next two years despite a product announcement that has everyone gushing. Instead let's see if Q3 will contain the first Tesla Energy sales with 50% margins.

Perfect. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and declare "nothing exceptional" there (after declaring that Silevo is out of the picture). This is exactly my point: "Let's hold the "hardly exceptional" argument until the 28th, when we see and hear about the solar roof."

Speaking about strawman, as far as I remember we've already discussed that you'll have to wait for TE to ramp to see sales with high margin...