Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

True, that is a potential issue.

But that is a self-inflicted wound by Tesla that wouldn't have happened if they used GAAP from the beginning. There is a reason that people use GAAP, it is Generally Accepted, so comparisons can more easily be made.

But the wound will be temporary since over time by using GAAP the right comparisons can be made.

The problem is that Tesla isn't like other companies, and cannot be directly compared to them.

No other car company stood behind their product with a guarantee that they would buy them back for X dollars three years in. It meant Tesla could only realize the portion of the sale price above the guarantee at the time of sale, (which made it look like every car had negative margin if the resale guarantee value is less than COGS). The GAAP treatment of RVG cars paints a very unrealistic picture when you remember that only a very small portion of the cars will ever have the RVG exercised.

There are many problems with GAAP, particularly when it comes to creative ways of doing business. Tesla does business in creative ways.

 

[tander]

It can always be resurrected just like the demand argument

Zombie FUD, good timing for Halloween.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Key words there are initial reactions. I am confident that most shrewd investors wiil catch the difference. CNBC on the other hand...

Agreed. Especially since gaap earnings and cash flow estimates will not be affected, just the headline numbers.

 

[hobbes]

Some guy in Germany is selling his claimed Signature X for 240k€ (!?). This looks like a opportunist that has lost all touch with reality, but to me it raises a question. The car is claimed to be 03/2016 which would put it into Q1 where I'm fairly sure there were 0 EU deliveries. Or am I missing something?

PS Autotechnik Inh. René Scholz in Eggersdorf

There was one "other" (non-Model S) Tesla registered in Germany in January and a white X was sighted around that time which was attributed to Audi buying it for intelligence reasons. Color fits, too. EU Market Situation and Outlook

Put my last bit of cash (well, almost) into another few shares - be greedy when others are fearful . Getting the popcorn ready!

 

[uselesslogin]

OK back to this non-GAAP reporting. In reading it again it basically sounds like they won't be using non-GAAP revenue where they used to have an RVG or similar guarantee to their leasing partners. The direct leased cars were always reported the same as GAAP. So basically it makes no actual difference to the financials except for the fact that non-GAAP will be closer to GAAP and we might see some revenue from expiring RVGs. I'm sure I might be misunderstanding something here - but it looks like the number will be higher than if RVG was not discontinued.

 

[FredTMC]

The consensus earnings estimates right now of 0.09 is non-gaap, and from what I can tell, using non-gaap revenues(which tesla has historically used). Meanwhile Tesla stated in the deliveries note that they will no longer be using non-gaap revenues in their non-gaap earnings reporting. BoA this morning seems to be one of the only firms taking this into account and adjusted their non-gaap earnings estimates for Q3 from a positive 0.5 to -0.65. No one else has done this and is contributing to the 0.09 current estimates. Whether Tesla beats or misses this estimate, either way it does not seem to be an apples to apples comparison if the estimates are using non-gaap revenues and Tesla is reporting with gaap revenues.

Ok. Tesla will use GAAP "Revenue"...

My question is will they still breakout Non-GAAP "profit"?!

Just because they only talk Top-line using GAAP doesn't mean they won't still use Non-GAAP and GAAP for bottom-line... unless they explicitly said so

 

[austinEV]

I wouldn't be surprised if they said, "for reference the now-retired non-gaap metrics would be xxxxx".

 

[FANGO]

Completely flat and below average volume going into an ER. How bizarre.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Ok. Tesla will use GAAP "Revenue"...

My question is will they still breakout Non-GAAP "profit"?!

Just because they only talk Top-line using GAAP doesn't mean they won't still use Non-GAAP and GAAP for bottom-line... unless they explicitly said so

They will still report non gaap earning, which takes out stock based compensation etc.

The issue is that in addition to those expenses, non gaap earnings used to be derived from non gaap revenues. It will now be derived from gaap revenues. The RVG which has been discontinued won't have an impact. But from what I understand direct leasing will still lessen gaap revenues(and thus any earnings derived from it).

 

[tinm]

I'm intrigued and excited to hear that the new PowerWalls will be on display and for sale in Tesla Stores soon.

I'm particularly curious about how strong and thick the shopping bag will have to be to hold the 250-lb PowerWall, and whether store staff will help you carry it to the car or if you're on your own

 

[uselesslogin]

Also, lest we forget 24,500 is a conservative estimate and the <1% language was omitted. I'm thinking we'll see >25,000 deliveries for the final count.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Completely flat and below average volume going into an ER. How bizarre.

The rubber is pullet taut. The gun is loaded, the powder keg is dry. You get the meaning

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Agreed. Especially since gaap earnings and cash flow estimates will not be affected, just the headline numbers.

Tesla Analysts Brace for Earnings Confusion on Reporting Change

Tesla Analysts Brace for Earnings Confusion on Reporting Change

• Forecasters hustle to revise models amid shift in practice
• Estimates vary widely as automaker hews closer to GAAP

 

[AlMc]

Good luck to all my long TMC friends!

 

[austinEV]

Also, lest we forget 24,500 is a conservative estimate and the <1% language was omitted. I'm thinking we'll see >25,000 deliveries for the final count.

and someone gets a haircut, and someone else gets one reversed?

 

[uselesslogin]

They will still report non gaap earning, which takes out stock based compensation etc.

The issue is that in addition to those expenses, non gaap earnings used to be derived from non gaap revenues. It will now be derived from gaap revenues. The RVG which has been discontinued won't have an impact. But from what I understand direct leasing will still lessen gaap revenues(and thus any earnings derived from it).

I don't think that is correct:

Why Tesla's Lease Accounting Is Less Devious Than You Think -- The Motley Fool

"The cars that Tesla leases directly to customers are still accounted for as leases, which is clearly the relevant accounting method there. There are no non-GAAP adjustments made for leased vehicles."

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Tesla third-quarter earnings: What to expect

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report a GAAP loss of 53 cents a share in the third quarter, which would be narrower than a GAAP loss of $1.78 a share in the third quarter of 2015.

Tesla is expected to report an adjusted loss per share of 22 cents, narrower than the adjusted loss of 58 cents a share in the year-ago period. Until late Tuesday, the adjusted number was forecast at breakeven.

Adjusted down? Now the expectation is a GAAP and non-GAAP loss?

 

[Tenable]

Here we go!

 

[jesselivenomore]

Tesla Analysts Brace for Earnings Confusion on Reporting Change

Tesla Analysts Brace for Earnings Confusion on Reporting Change

• 
  
  
  • Forecasters hustle to revise models amid shift in practice
  • Estimates vary widely as automaker hews closer to GAAP

Thanks this was helpful.

 

[Value Ev]

stock is up after hours!
Some thing big is happening!!