Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

My inkling is that today's blog/Q&A will affect the SP more than any cool presentation like solar roofs or the 'D' unveiling.

Wall Street cares much more about financials than creating demand. One of the biggest bear argument is that they haven't found a way to make money....hopefully today goes a long way in answering that question.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well, I have to give you credit for doing some good research. But here are few things you are missing:
1. Peaker plants generate power, batteries don't. So, you will need to add the cost of generating the equivalent amount of energy with some other means on the battery side of the equation.
2. We don't know cost of maintaining battery systems, or loss of capacity over time. It may be low, but doubt it is zero. The true costs will be known after few years of deployment.
3. Besides batteries, there are many other cheaper forms of energy storage. So, it is not a battle of batteries against peaker plants. It is a battle of batteries against other storage and production alternatives.

99% of grid energy storage was with pumped water hydroelectricity till 2012. Will be interesting if more recent data can be found.
Energy storage - Wikipedia

Once again, this is complete nonsense. Pumped Energy Storage is as relevant to the prospects of Battery Energy Storage as quantity of public telephone booths in 2007 to the success of smart phones. The last hydro plant was commissioned in US in the 1980-ies. Environmental concerns over water and land use limited new projects afterwards. Pumped storage can't compete with batteries in flexibility of deployment, efficiency, response time, maintenance etc.

The growth of BES is at the threshold of really taking off, enough so that Panasonic is willing to take a hit to their stock price to warn that they will be investing more in this space. Your attempts to question superiority of the BES to all other energy storage methods are laughable, you should make an effort at self education - start with the EPRI Handbook I linked upthread.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

My inkling is that today's blog/Q&A will affect the SP more than any cool presentation like solar roofs or the 'D' unveiling.

Wall Street cares much more about financials than creating demand. One of the biggest bear argument is that they haven't found a way to make money....hopefully today goes a long way in answering that question.

Finally a post about the short term in the short term thread, thanks! I was hoping more people would share their opinions on this before today.

I really don't have an inkling whether the result will be good for us or not but I also think today has a large chance of moving the stock. WS likes numbers and I am expecting numbers today. It's quite possible that even if we don't see good numbers that TSLA/SCTY go up anyway just because uncertainty is reduced. If all we get is more questions and more uncertainty then I expect a negative reaction. I really don't know what to expect as far the level of detail presented.

 

[myusername]

Here is some material information for the skeptics assuming that short sellers activities are not the reason for the SP performance during two weeks ending 10/28/16.

Based on the latest note from S3 Partners TSLA short interest is now above 30 million shares with more than additional 2.5 million shares shorted in two last weeks ending October 28. It seems that this is one of, if not the main driver behind SP essentially staying flat in spite of all the positive cnews. The note also sums up the bear view on TSLA and predicts increasing shorting activity into the merger vote on November 17th.

Putting this in perspective, taking a glass half full approach, the fact that SP is at the same level as two weeks ago means that there were enough investors who are long to buy additional 2.5 million shares in the past two weeks, even though short sellers clearly optimize their selling patterns to induce maximum damage to the SP. The big question is whether there will be enough investors to snatch additional shares that short sellers are intent to offer in the next two weeks.

in the last 2 weeks there were more than 50 million shares traded... and you're making the determination that the SP was driven down by 5% of that volume?... and since you've made that baseless assumption... then you compound it with: "even though short sellers clearly optimize their selling patterns to induce maximum damage to the SP"?... and you're justification for this is what?... that the price dramatically fell?

once again... if Tesla drops... it's because of shorts... if Tesla goes up it's because of buying... *nobody* sells Tesla.

and can you please draw at least a dotted support/resistance line at $194 when you post that chart again... that line tells a much more accurate story than your pennant.

 

[ZsoZso]

Sure, WS likes numbers rather than flashy presentations about future products. However, the very positive ER full of financial numbers proving success in $$$ bottom-line has only been able to raise the SP 5% for a few hours in the morning and the move got fully reversed by the end of the day. So I am very skeptical that today's event would have any longer lasting impact.

On the other hand, breaking news: the merger is surely going to get approved as I just casted my vote for it with my shares -- almost a thousand so that has got to be a decisive factor

 

[Seesaw]

Sure, WS likes numbers rather than flashy presentations about future products. However, the very positive ER full of financial numbers proving success in $$$ bottom-line has only been able to raise the SP 5% for a few hours in the morning and the move got fully reversed by the end of the day. So I am very skeptical that today's event would have any longer lasting impact.

I think it will be pretty positive. WS already had factored in some level of profitability. The uncertainty remains around the merger - if that is cleared up or reduced today, I'm guessing there should be a positive effect.

 

[Gerardf]

Lot of analyst updates on Oct 27 .

Some of them low to very low.....

But look at these.. some are nice to (very) high. Note the $ 500 (!) from Dougherty !
They are reiterated ratings, but I did not realize some of them were this high.
Guess we are seeing some Model-3 and TE showing up in these. Maybe someone here has access to the reports ?

 

[racer26]

in the last 2 weeks there were more than 50 million shares traded... and you're making the determination that the SP was driven down by 5% of that volume?... and since you've made that baseless assumption... then you compound it with: "even though short sellers clearly optimize their selling patterns to induce maximum damage to the SP"?... and you're justification for this is what?... that the price dramatically fell?

once again... if Tesla drops... it's because of shorts... if Tesla goes up it's because of buying... *nobody* sells Tesla.

and can you please draw at least a dotted support/resistance line at $194 when you post that chart again... that line tells a much more accurate story than your pennant.

Its very difficult to unmask what's really going on:

We know that the net of shares shorted increased by 2.5M shares. We know that there were 50M shares traded in the same time period. What we don't know, is how many of those 50M were actions like "sell short in big block, buy to close in small chunks, repeat". Doing that just once changes the impact to fully 10% of the overall volume. I suspect some of the biggest players on the short side of the equation did such things many more times than once in that 2 week span, though I have little evidence to back it up.

 

[brian45011]

Where do you see subsidies?

Self-Generation Incentive Program

https://www.selfgenca.com/documents/reports/statewide_projects

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why is it a whole different game? Independent contractors over the world are installing electric installations in those numbers on a daily basis. Powerwall installation is very straightforward. A dedicated amateur could do it. You don't need your own installation workforce for technical reasons. You need them for commercial reasons where you want to control the complete user experience. If you want to make your customers feel like they are buying into a lifestyle. And that's exactly what Tesla is aiming for.

I particularly mean when it comes to selling the Tesla Energy products. There's a big difference between selling someone solar, and then adding at the end "Oh yeah, do you also want storage?", and actively pursuing every potential customer for Tesla Energy products. Tesla needs the security of a Tesla-controlled sales channel, so they can know that the demand will be there every month.

I'm sure it's possible to get around a merger with various agreements, but a merger is likely less complicated.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There is another Utility - in US - which gives customers that agree for shared use of PowerWall monthly credit of $31.76. The Utility is Vermount's Green Mountain Power.

That is one year old news. It's surprising that even with these big subsidies, we are yet to see a line item of Tesla energy in the quarterly reports. Probably not very popular yet.

Self-Generation Incentive Program

What California's SGIP has to do with the "subsidies" @mmd claimed to be provided by Vermount's Green Mountain Power?

 

[bdy0627]

I've only got only circumstantial evidence, but it's my personal theory that the reason for so many major events is that Elon is expecting some large actor to try to sabotage the SolarCity acquisition by driving the stock price below $170.

Hmm, I hadn't thought much about this possibility but it does seem plausible. If there is enough money out there with manipulative malice behind it towards SCTY/TSLA, perhaps this could be in play. 170 is getting a little closer now. Anyone else worried about this?

 

[MitchJi]

Finally a post about the short term in the short term thread, thanks! I was hoping more people would share their opinions on this before today.

I really don't have an inkling whether the result will be good for us or not but I also think today has a large chance of moving the stock. WS likes numbers and I am expecting numbers today. It's quite possible that even if we don't see good numbers that TSLA/SCTY go up anyway just because uncertainty is reduced. If all we get is more questions and more uncertainty then I expect a negative reaction. I really don't know what to expect as far the level of detail presented.

I'd like a hangout tonight to talk about the ER, tiles, plus tonight's call. This thread is a bad place to try to organize one. I'm considering starting a hangout thread. I don't know how to start the actual hangout though.


Does anyone else want to do that?

 

[vgrinshpun]

There were 657,078 shares available for shorting at Fidelity yesterday at 9:40am (interest at 1%). Today at 9:39am there were 355,807 shares available, with interest going further down to 0.5%. Therefore there was a 301K shares drawdown in shares available for shorting since yesterday.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

There were 657,078 shares available for shorting at Fidelity yesterday at 9:40am (interest at 1%). Today at 9:39am there were 355,807 shares available, with interest going further down to 0.5%. Therefore there was a 301K shares drawdown in shares available for shorting since yesterday.

So does this tell us we are going to get massacred? Lol. I guess we will ruminate on the nasty shorts all the way to 150.00. There will always be short sellers. They often help price action but not in the case of this one. The shorts get so much love and attention. They read these posts and press even harder. I wonder if we get below 150 if the gang in here will still be fixated on short interest?

 

[vgrinshpun]

So does this tell us we are going to get massacred? Lol

No. This was about what happened yesterday. It has limited power to predict what will happen today. LOL?

 

[racer26]

Small volume this morning. 20 minutes in and we're still well under 100,000 shares traded. 3M avg daily represents an average 20 minutes of 153k traded, and its normally pretty heavily loaded into the first hour and the afternoon is slow.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

No. This was about what happened yesterday. It has limited power to predict what will happen today. LOL?

Why why why do we keep obsessing on short interest? Has it helped anybody? Elon doesn't give a rip about shorts and why should we?

 

[esk8mw]

Lot of analyst updates on Oct 27 .

Some of them low to very low.....


View attachment 200870


But look at these.. some are nice to (very) high. Note the $ 500 (!) from Dougherty !
They are reiterated ratings, but I did not realize some of them were this high.
Guess we are seeing some Model-3 and TE showing up in these. Maybe someone here has access to the reports ?


View attachment 200871

I think this aligns with my prior post. As always, trading in Tesla is very binary. You either believe Tesla's words and think the SP is irrationally low or you don't believe the projections and think the SP is bound to decline sharply in the near term. This tug of war plus low retail ownership of the stock makes for some wild SP movements that often make no sense objectively.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Self-Generation Incentive Program

https://www.selfgenca.com/documents/reports/statewide_projects

I am familiar with the spreadsheet you've linked. It lists status of SGIP projects in California. Once again, what it has to do with my objection to @mmd claim that Vermount's Green Mountain Power provides "subsidies"?