Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

Ok my math might be off on the Asset stuff. But the other issue is SCTY debt of 3B absorbed by TSLA. Elon might want to tell Wall St. that SCTY will scale back on its silly business model, and also trim down those 15,000 employees. How the F*** can SCTY have more employees than Tesla? How? Are they just hiring panel installers like crazy?

What makes it a silly business model? Its making money - a lot of money - and they *have* scaled back on the questionably wise PPA leases, and they're now focussing more on owner financed or bought outright systems.

SCTY's valuation is completely messed up when they could stop doing business today, and have essentially 2B in profit 20 years from now with no risk, but the company is only valued with a market cap of 1.8B.

 

[Value Ev]

He said "cursed".

So he needs an exorcist, not a diplomat.

Well, if he appealed to a Vatican diplomat, he can get a visa out (a situational curse) and a religious out (e.g. an exorcist)

 

[Green Pete]

1. As to the moderator Walkabout - checkout the documentary "The Purge" - sometimes it is good to just let it all go to $#(@ and start anew.
2. As to the election, there is too much concern about Trump and EV.
- He has made it clear that he wants to Make America Great Again. Both Tesla AND Solarcity are American companies! Tesla is investing in the US and in manufacturing here with the GF.
- Making America Great Again would accelerate Tesla's independence from Panasonic.
- Making America Great Again will mean more money for more people to afford $70,000 cars, $6500 batteries and $20 hats (since people won't need to by any more MAGA hats).
- Making America Great Again will make it easy for Tesla City (combo of the two names) to compete with the cheap Chinese solar panels.
3 On the other hand, if Clinton wins, then we will be Stronger Together
- Stronger Together clearly means that laws will be enacted to MAKE SURE acquisitions work.
- Stronger Together means subsidies for integration R&D efforts - how can we make two or three products better together?
- Stronger Together means more cheap labor that can be used for installation and maintenance.

So EITHER WAY, Tesla City wins.

As for me, I am voting for SMOD 2016 (Sweet Meteor of Death)

I dont think tesla sees Independence from Panasonic as a thing. I think Panasonic is thrilled with the business opportunity of working with Tesla, and Tesla (musk) has time and again said battery patents are up for grabs and that tesla cant open 100 factories all by itself. I imagine to some extent Musk is hoping Panasonic goes out and works with other companies to open more gigafactories. Tesla in the long run is in no need to corner the market any more than they have. They are so far ahead is ridiculous. I honestly think Musk initially didn't plan on the cars being so key to tesla. I think he figured he would make batteries and sell them to the automotive sector, but then it became clear very quickly they weren't having it so he said, well, "Ill make cars too". If Tesla ends up being worth the 1 Trillion dollars that its speculated to Musks share is 220 Billion (three times more wealth than bill gates). Thats more than enough to fund a new planet. Planet Musk. Not to mention Spacex will likely be one of the largest telecom providers in the world soon enough.

I jokingly wonder if Earth wont become to Mars what Australia was to England. You live on mars and you aren't a positive influence on society? No problem, well send you back to Earth.

 

[MitchJi]

Another interesting data point from the 10-Q that I didn't see in the SH letter - Tesla produced 10,450 Model X in Q3. If you want a clear idea on how X issues affect S production it's clearly on display - S production also went up over 44% from Q2 as the X issues were resolved. Here's the full history of X production:

15Q3 - 6
15Q4 - 507
16Q1 - 2659
16Q2 - 8120
16Q3 - 10450

The ramp is a clear S curve and I bet it stabilizes soon. I wonder where it tops out? In a quarter or 2 bb we should have a decent idea on whether we have reached steady state X demand or if the numbers keep increasing like the S did over its first few years. [/B]

I think now that the quality issues are sorted the only issue is how many they can produce, which will probably continue to increase. Many of the improvements that Tesla makes in their production processes for the 3 can be incorporated into the MS-MX line.

Going back to SCTY for a moment, at the end of the day, the SP500/nasdaq had a notable dip, yet SCTY went up. I'm wondering if we're at the bottom and the window to hop in is closer than I think it is.

Compare the five day chart for TAN with SCTY. I think it might be smarter to wait until just before the election if HC wins, or the dust to settle if trump wins.

I feel like we should have a slack group or something

We need to do something. What's a slack group?

 

[dmckinstry]

Need bigger battery for car, can't come soon enough....

Yep. We need a 600 miles range. Then we'll get enough orders. There's no demand now.

 

[phigment]

We need to do something. What's a slack group?

Team messaging software.

 

[sundaymorning]

Yep. We need a 600 miles range. Then we'll get enough orders. There's no demand now.

I'm happy with my 60kwh which is about 200 miles. Love not having to pump gas. What a waste of time those days were. Sitting in line at Costco, pulling over in the rain, anxiety looking at prices yoyo-ing, running low on fuel at the worst possible times.. if anything my gas anxiety is on an order of magnitude higher than range anxiety. At least with my Tesla I know exactly the amount of miles left on the charge. Never had anxiety since driving it. Yes I've seen this occur in real life.. (See picture)

 

[Krugerrand]

I find that TSLA investors are especially fickle...

What!?

Oh, you mean the big boys that don't like it when they look bad. Such sissy pants because of a little bit of pie. Maybe next time Elon should throw shoes.

 

[MitchJi]

So I am not in favor of Trump. At all.

That said, it might be possible a Trump presidency could help Tesla in one way. He says America will become "totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel", and his stated plan to defeat ISIS is to "bomb the hell out of them" and then "take back the oil".

I am not an economist but I think that could result in higher oil prices, therefore more interest in electric cars.

Are you serious? How many innocent people would die as a result?

Do you think that is justified by selling more electric cars?

I hope you realize that's a great strategy to make terrorism worse.

 

[TNEVol]

'm happy with my 60kwh which is about 200 miles.

I think Sunday and Papa both have/had 60s. The Motor Trend article said that the Bolt was a better car than a 60 (as I recall) based mostly on price. I cant imagine a 60 owner choosing a Bolt even with the price differential. Does everyone agree that these are not comparable cars?

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm surprised anyone paid attention to me. It's all disposable income, though I'm in red more than I'd like to admit. I seem to have the issue of jumping ship on major movers (ER, delivery numbers, etc) out of safety, jump back in when it's already high, then get stuck when it sinks. I don't think anyone could have predicted, after the Q3 ER, that it'll sink below where it was 2 days after the best ER Tesla has ever had.

I agree with this about the ER for the record, though I do think it's almost completely macro. You will only ever lose money if you sell every time it drops. If you believe in the long term prospects, hold or buy more when it's so low. If you think the company will legitimately go under or something, or that the stock will go lower and never recover, then that would be a good reason to sell low. Otherwise, hold and don't lock in losses - the market is always going to be swingy especially in a stock like Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

Mod Note for ALL:

I'm considering go on Walkabout until after the election. One way to save my hair, I figure.

Although this is, once again, NOT a democracy, here is one time when YOU can vote!

As follows: if you think that would better the forum and its discourse for the next week, vote "Like".
If not, and you want me to keep rapping knuckles, vote "Dislike".


This oughta be inneresting...

....where is that undecided button?....

 

[Krugerrand]

The award hasn't been announced yet as far as I know, but the T MS 60 is a finalist. That in itself is an achievement!

The Model X is also a finalist in its category.

 

[Krugerrand]

Looks like a Thai subtitle to me.

That sounds a touch stereotypical. Is the moderator of this thread allowing such provocative statements? My vote may no longer be undecided. Pfft!

Mod edit: Yeah, but his wife was looking over his shoulder translating, so my hands were tied.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Wow, FB currently down 6.9% after hours.
This election must be causing a lot of anxiety in the markets.

edit - 8.4%
Many stocks showing similar downward patterns as TSLA in the last 5 trading days.
FB AMZN GOOGL auto sector etc

there are not very many growth stories out there other than TSLA, NFLX, NVDA
FB growth is slowing next year
TSLA is the only stock that i know of that is posting triple digit increases in Revs and EPS YOY
so selling TSLA here is totally irrational
my bet: HRC gets elected next Tuesday and we have a monster rally (aka mother of all rallies) led by TSLA and SCTY

 

[brian45011]

Hard to imagine many wanting to put new panels with a new lease on a roof that is at least 20-30 years old as is the case with these stcy customers after 20 years.

Practically all of those roofs will have been replaced during the initial 20 year term of the PPAs. Most who decide a zero down lease/PPA is the best financial choice for solar panels likely have composition roofs that were not brand new when SCTY installed the panels. As I understood Lyndon's comment SCTY is responsible for removing and re-installing the panels when the shingles are replaced.

 

[arondaniel]

Are you serious? How many innocent people would die as a result?

Do you think that is justified by selling more electric cars?

I hope you realize that's a great strategy to make terrorism worse.

Yes, I agree. Like I said. Not a Trump supporter.

 

[Papafox]

I think Sunday and Papa both have/had 60s. The Motor Trend article said that the Bolt was a better car than a 60 (as I recall) based mostly on price. I cant imagine a 60 owner choosing a Bolt even with the price differential. Does everyone agree that these are not comparable cars?

I had a S 40 before my S 70D, and I loved it. I could carry 5 50" TVs in it (in their boxes). I'd sometimes go out into the garage (OK, I still do this) and just gaze at the beautiful lines of the Model S. This was the first new car I had ever owned, and I'm no spring chicken. Between the trunk and the frunk I could pick up 4 adults at Honolulu Airport and load their enormous vacation suitcases in the frunk and the trunk so that everyone traveled comfortably. Sorry, Bolt, no way could you ever fill those shoes. It'd kind of be like giving up Meg Ryan or Gwyneth Paltrow as a girlfriend and taking up with Rosie O'Donnell.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

there are not very many growth stories out there other than TSLA, NFLX, NVDA
FB growth is slowing next year
TSLA is the only stock that i know of that is posting triple digit increases in Revs and EPS YOY
so selling TSLA here is totally irrational
my bet: HRC gets elected next Tuesday and we have a monster rally (aka mother of all rallies) led by TSLA and SCTY

My thoughts exactly. I quit Facebook earlier this year as it is a complete waste of time. I spend all my time on Twitter now. I don't think FB has a bright future unless their VR or AI stuff takes off. I would rather bet on Google for this futuristic stuff....If I was flush, Google would be one of my few holdings.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I had a S 40 before my S 70D, and I loved it. I could carry 5 50" TVs in it (in their boxes). I'd sometimes go out into the garage (OK, I still do this) and just gaze at the beautiful lines of the Model S. This was the first new car I had ever owned, and I'm no spring chicken. Between the trunk and the frunk I could pick up 4 adults at Honolulu Airport and load their enormous vacation suitcases in the frunk and the trunk so that everyone traveled comfortably. Sorry, Bolt, no way could you ever fill those shoes. It'd kind of be like giving up Meg Ryan or Gwyneth Paltrow as a girlfriend and taking up with Rosie O'Donnell.

Must be such a rush to own a Tesla. I sat in one the other day and began to dream like a kid does about Disneyland. Your a fortunate man to have been successful enough to own a Model S. Awesome. For you....America is still Great!