Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[everman]

Is it possible for Tesla to go back to the government for another ATVM loan? I'm certain they wouldn't need the capital for more than a year or two, like last time. If the loan provides the last infusion of capital before M3 volume production, they wouldn't need to worry about any "government subsidies" negative feedback, as they wouldn't have to go back to the market until all current execution risks had been addressed. Then they pay back the loan (early again) and Bob'/ your uncle!

 

[Papafox]

There is literally a white elephant in the room (with an orange combover), that could crush the efforts of all we have worked towards for years. The fallout over what happens this next week, and which way it goes, will be epic. I'm pulling my hair out, and biting my nails, and I'm not even the moderator.

Suncatcher, I appreciate your concern but let me address this issue in a non-political fashion. A Trump win would de-emphasize the climate change issue that is being taken very seriously by the Democrats. That's a negative, and some slump in the broader markets and especially in clean-energy companies would result. How much would the slump be? We really don't know. That said, the business plan of a combined TSLA/SCTY still makes sense regardless of who is president. People primarily buy Tesla vehicles because they are the best vehicles available, because of emerging autopilot technologies, and because of the growing supercharger network. That will not change. Might Trump go after the $7500 EV tax credit? It's possible, but the elimination of that credit would be a bigger threat to emerging EV companies than to Tesla, which has already used a good portion of its 200,000 U.S. vehicle allocation. How about Tesla Energy? Again, these systems are primarily being purchased because of their economics rather than users feeling the need to be green. On the possible plus side for a Trump win would be renegotiated trade agreements with companies such as China so that their goods don't come into the U.S. free of tariffs but goods such as Teslas being shipped to China are currently tariffed up the ying-yang. Fair trade agreements with China could help Tesla vehicle sales in that country a lot.

We'll take a hit in Tesla's SP if HRC doesn't get elected, but the damage to Tesla will be manageable. I'm concerned about November trading for various reasons, but I see a recovery afterwards. Tesla will make money no matter who is elected.

 

[Lessmog]

I didn't mean anyone specific, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

I think someone said they were selling off just now, at this low. I feel it may have been you. I could be mistaken. If so, sorry.

 

[sub]

Yes, you are missing something. I'll try to explain some worrying stuff about SCTY:
- 1.8B Market Cap, but they have 3B debts. Yes they have Asset which they valued at $2B, but those are depreciating quickly.
- The fear is once TSLA merged with SCTY, SCTY will use TSLA cash to do their silly business. This is a distraction. Investor wants TSLA to focus on burning cash for Model 3 activity, not for other silly stuff, especially leasing more Solar Panel.
- What are they gonna do with 15,000 SCTY employees?

Are you being intentionally misleading or am I either misunderstanding your post or the letter released yesterday?

The assets will produce 2 billion more income than the debt carried, half of said debt is non recourse. I get you're trying to convince yourself and anyone that will listen that TSLA is going to $100 though, don't let the facts get in your way. Of course you could also know more than Elon, this forum is full of posters claiming this same knowledge. I've got most of them on mute (is that word banned too?) .

 

[doggusfluffy]

Still trying to understand the price action the last week. I understand election concerns, but I think there is more at play. There are a lot of shares sold short right now, but the interest rate to borrow shares has come WAY down. Why? Are institutions like Fidelity lowering borrowing rates to increase the shorting to drive down the SP so they can buy back in with the SP in the 180s or lower? Their funds only look good with big annual returns. This could be a way to have excellent growth if they can bring the SP down, then come back in and ride it for a 20% gain when they raise the interest rates into double digits again to discourage additional short selling.... Am I crazy? Where did I put my tin foil hat?!?

Ever since I started lurking here the golden unicorn has always been "Wait for TSLA to show a profit."...and even Elon referenced it as "pie in the face" of wall street. I'm "puttin on the foil" Hanson brothers style.

 

[AudubonB]

Someone can report this to the Moderator as being off-topic.....

THIS is all you need for your canine laving:

 

[larmor]

Ever since I started lurking here the golden unicorn has always been "Wait for TSLA to show a profit."...and even Elon referenced it as "pie in the face" of wall street. I'm "puttin on the foil" Hanson brothers style.

Lots of tin foil hats to go around. Most publicly held companies are expected to show growth, increasing earnings, and solid guidance. Mergers with low cost are considered good for the company doing the merger. Alot of these words apply to tesla.

Need bigger battery for car, can't come soon enough....

 

[RobStark]

Might Trump go after the $7500 EV tax credit? It's possible, but the elimination of that credit would be a bigger threat to emerging EV companies than to Tesla, which has already used a good portion of its 200,000 U.S. vehicle allocation. How about Tesla Energy? Again, these systems are primarily being purchased because of their economics rather than users feeling the need to be green.

We'll take a hit in Tesla's SP if HRC doesn't get elected, but the damage to Tesla will be manageable. I'm concerned about November trading for various reasons, but I see a recovery afterwards. Tesla will make money no matter who is elected.

In Washington DC if you don't have 60 Senators you don't have *sugar*.

Eliminating the BEV and Rooftop credit will require 60 Senators to break a filibuster.

Trumpistas have ZERO chance of 60 Senators.

And we can count on Bernie and Sen Elizabeth Warren to filibuster.

Unless you really honestly believe there will be 1M Black Shirts marching down Pennsylvania Ave this is much ado about nothing.

Long term there is much concern. New policies. BEV and Rooftop Solar policies after current policies sunset is a concern.

 

[viKtor slamet]

Are you being intentionally misleading or am I either misunderstanding your post or the letter released yesterday?

The assets will produce 2 billion more income than the debt carried, half of said debt is non recourse. I get you're trying to convince yourself and anyone that will listen that TSLA is going to $100 though, don't let the facts get in your way. Of course you could also know more than Elon, this forum is full of posters claiming this same knowledge. I've got most of them on mute (is that word banned too?) .

Ok my math might be off on the Asset stuff. But the other issue is SCTY debt of 3B absorbed by TSLA. Elon might want to tell Wall St. that SCTY will scale back on its silly business model, and also trim down those 15,000 employees. How the F*** can SCTY have more employees than Tesla? How? Are they just hiring panel installers like crazy?

 

[Irishjugg]

I think someone said they were selling off just now, at this low. I feel it may have been you. I could be mistaken. If so, sorry.

Jay has made several emotionally driven trades that ended up being large and avoidable mistakes, I personally worry about that. Hopefully nothing Jay can't afford to lose.

Just a reminder to him and everyone else. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose, and don't make trading decisions based on emotions like fear

 

[esk8mw]

For those who can't understand the words being spoken on Tesla's calls (that everyone? Yea? Thought so.), check out SCTY's latest 425 filing. It's a transcript of yesterday's Q&A.

 

[winfield100]

• N
• O
• !
• 

thanksinaveryrepectfulwayiloverunonsentencesandtryingtomakesensesoeyejustskip

 

[Jayjs20]

Jay has made several emotionally driven trades that ended up being large and avoidable mistakes, I personally worry about that. Hopefully nothing Jay can't afford to lose.

Just a reminder to him and everyone else. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose, and don't make trading decisions based on emotions like fear

I'm surprised anyone paid attention to me. It's all disposable income, though I'm in red more than I'd like to admit. I seem to have the issue of jumping ship on major movers (ER, delivery numbers, etc) out of safety, jump back in when it's already high, then get stuck when it sinks. I don't think anyone could have predicted, after the Q3 ER, that it'll sink below where it was 2 days after the best ER Tesla has ever had.

 

[viKtor slamet]

Also, I think SunEdison bankruptcy is a partypooper for Solar. SCTY, SPWR, Vivint, everything got impacted, suddenly the whole perception becomes solar = risk..

 

[3Victoria]

For those who can't understand the words being spoken on Tesla's calls (that everyone? Yea? Thought so.), check out SCTY's latest 425 filing. It's a transcript of yesterday's Q&A.

Yeah, helps with the accents, but still lots of [unintelligible]s.

SolarCity - Other

 

[Value Ev]

1. As to the moderator Walkabout - checkout the documentary "The Purge" - sometimes it is good to just let it all go to $#(@ and start anew.
2. As to the election, there is too much concern about Trump and EV.
- He has made it clear that he wants to Make America Great Again. Both Tesla AND Solarcity are American companies! Tesla is investing in the US and in manufacturing here with the GF.
- Making America Great Again would accelerate Tesla's independence from Panasonic.
- Making America Great Again will mean more money for more people to afford $70,000 cars, $6500 batteries and $20 hats (since people won't need to by any more MAGA hats).
- Making America Great Again will make it easy for Tesla City (combo of the two names) to compete with the cheap Chinese solar panels.
3 On the other hand, if Clinton wins, then we will be Stronger Together
- Stronger Together clearly means that laws will be enacted to MAKE SURE acquisitions work.
- Stronger Together means subsidies for integration R&D efforts - how can we make two or three products better together?
- Stronger Together means more cheap labor that can be used for installation and maintenance.

So EITHER WAY, Tesla City wins.

As for me, I am voting for SMOD 2016 (Sweet Meteor of Death)

 

[Value Ev]

Maybe they are, but I'm English, just cursed to live here

Are you a slave there?
Can you not leave?
Contact an embassy and see if they can help you.

 

[Intl Professor]

thanksinaveryrepectfulwayiloverunonsentencesandtryingtomakesensesoeyejustskip

Looks like a Thai subtitle to me.

 

[AudubonB]

He said "cursed".

So he needs an exorcist, not a diplomat.

 

[arondaniel]

I f part of the the reason you support Tesla is their mission statement, "accelerating the transition to sustainable energy", even as an investment strategy, how can you possibly be in favor of trump?
Imagining Donald Trump’s Energy Department: ‘It’s Like an Alternate Reality’

So I am not in favor of Trump. At all.

That said, it might be possible a Trump presidency could help Tesla in one way. He says America will become "totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel", and his stated plan to defeat ISIS is to "bomb the hell out of them" and then "take back the oil".

I am not an economist but I think that could result in higher oil prices, therefore more interest in electric cars.