Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Xpert]

I have no idea what TSLA or market will do tomorrow or over the next few days
However I have a few observations that might be helpful:
TSLA has gone down 4 days straight so a bounce would not be unexpected
TSLA SP is still holding above low of $187.87 made on June 27th so potentially a double bottom?
The probability of a violent rally next week is real in my opinion
Personally I'm doing nothing except sitting and watching from sidelines I still have all my position in TSLA intact and my margin calls are not due until Friday and next week mostly
I'll continue to hold all my TSLA stock and long dated calls with absolutely zero trading other than minimal margin related selling which should be no more than a few hundred or at most less than a thousand shares of TSLA

Im with you, holding all jan 2018 calls. Fundamentals feel so strong I have absolutely full confidence even in the face of this decline and will likely double down within next few days. HC for president is a no brainer so is the Merger going through. I will eat my socks on TV if Trump wins, as We all will die in WW3 nuclear wars anyway.

Current stock price is a gift, sentiment is rock bottom, after HC election we should see trend reversal and sell the rumor ending, buy the news starting. Tesla has cleared all production hurdles and on target 80k+ this year and M3 full ramp 2nd half 2017 which is ahead of schedule. plus TE is ramping up. the street will soon realize it makes no sense for a cash flow positive SCTY to drag TSLA to $187 from what should have been $240 or higher without the merger. I predict fireworks right after the merger with SP trending up before that date, barring any macro events.

 

[DaveT]

I will eat my socks on TV if Trump wins

@Xpert Is that literal or figurative? If Trump wins, will you post a video here of you eating your socks?

 

[Value Ev]

According to Goldman the $500m mentioned by tesla as a benefit of the merger is total cash flow, not free cash flow.

Has anyone here seen any validation if that is true?

The Tesla-SolarCity deal is still dividing Wall Street

 

[Papafox]

Congratulations to Curt and all you other Cubs fans...

Fred: Meanwhile at Fremont Stadium, Team Tesla's J.B. Straubel is leading off at the bottom of the 3rd, followed by Wheeler and then in the clean-up position it's Musk. The place is packed with estimates of over 30 million short shares represented here tonight. Al, how do you see this game shaping up?
Al: Well Fred, Team Tesla has a real challenge with the Bears. Bear pitchers consist almost entirely of curve-ball throwers, and they're the best in the league. You're seldom gonna get an honest pitch over the plate to work with.
Fred: Yeah, but feel that tension! I've heard that with all the shorts in attendance tonight, and with the kind of hitting we've see from the Team Tesla recently, the spring is set so tight that when it goes off anyone or anything in its way will be heading over the centerfield fence.
Al: Absolutely. Team Tesla reported excellent stats just recently, they've recruited the best new talent out there, but they're being grossly under-estimated because of that upcoming acquisition of the green jerseys. Some say the added payroll is going to break the team.
Fred: Boulderdash Al, the green jerseys have great fielders and bring 300,000 fans with them and their rookies have moves that no one in the league can match. The stadiums are going to be packed, as they are right now. It's going to be a great season Al.
Al: Yep. By the way, what do you think is going to be the toughest position to play this year?
Fred: Shortstop, definitely shortstop.

 

[Xpert]

@Xpert Is that literal or figurative? If Trump wins, will you post a video here of you eating your socks?

Yes Dave, i will eat my unwashed stinky socks and post the video here. you have my words.

 

[dennis]

Are you a slave there?
Can you not leave?
Contact an embassy and see if they can help you.

I hear there may be an open spot in the Ecuadorian embassy once the election is over.

 

[erha]

Sold all my call options at a huge loss yesterday. Feels weird to get Q3 results correct (positive cash flow, positive GAAP and non-GAAP profit) and still loose tons of money. Keeping my stocks obviously. Sooner or later (probably later), the market has to coincide

 

[vgrinshpun]

Hopefully Tesla is mature enough for SP not reacting to this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1813340/

 

[vgrinshpun]

If you are referring to our earlier discussion, then the question was : if Q4 2016 is a repeat of the Q4 2015 strategy, then why are US deliveries last month lower than last year (despite to overall quarter projected to grow 50%). And the potential given answer was : because this year they will deliver more overseas which biases against a good October month for the US. So the proper comparison to answer that question is not with last quarter (when they didn't do the speculated extreme pipeline emptying) but with last year. And then the picture is less rosy. Compared with last year, October deliveries in Norway are down by 38%, those in the Netherlands are down by 48% and are only up in Sweden by 29%. While we don't have data yet, there is a very high certainty that both UK (by a little) and Denmark (by a lot) will do worse than last year. Taken together I feel confident to estimate that Europe won't do better than last year. Maybe Asia will pick up the slack, but I think current data actually strengthens the argument that deliveries in Oct are down because Tesla choose to produce inventory over custom orders.

The European deliveries in October of 2015 is not a proper basis for comparison because of the level of regional batching that was done on preceding months in 2015 is much different as compared to 2016. In 2015 European deliveries throughout the Q2 and October were mostly flat (July / Aug / Sep / Oct- 1176 / 1097 / 1244 / 1149), indicating that there were no extreme regional batching of the production, and European bound cars were produced about equally in these four month, explaining relatively high European deliveries in October. Situation was much different in 2016 with split of European deliveries in Q2 (and Q1) extremely lopsided (Jul / Aug / Sep - 600 / 836 /1692), so Tesla used extreme geographic batching, producing exclusively NA cars in the last month of a quarter, resulting in very light deliveries of European cars in July and October.

Based on the above the proper reference for comparison for October 2016 deliveries in Europe would be July 2016, not October of 2015. So the comparison to October 2015 deliveries in Europe results in unrealistically gloomy outlook.

As more data on European deliveries became available (Norway, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Austria) the QoQ monthly deliveries (Oct over July) show healthy 30.8% growth.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Zolmax News on Twitter

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Two killed in fiery Tesla crash north of downtown
I'm thinking this fiery crash, with two deaths this morning, might adversely affect the stock.

 

[schonelucht]

Based on the above the proper reference for comparison for October 2016 deliveries in Europe would be July 2016, not October of 2015. So the comparison to October 2015 deliveries in Europe results in unrealistically gloomy outlook.

Absolutely not because we are not judging their strategy for the third quarter of the year, but the last quarter of the year. And more specifically the 3000 deliveries over production that you speculated on. That's a strategy from Q4 last year and therefore if they want to reproduce that, they need to follow the same strategy as last year. With deliveries trailing production by on average a month, that means September 2016 production should already have followed the same pattern as September 2015 and hence October 15 versus October 16 for deliveries is the proper yardstick.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Two killed in fiery Tesla crash north of downtown
I'm thinking this fiery crash, with two deaths this morning, might adversely affect the stock.

If the stock goes down, it has nothing to do with this. Speed and likely alcohol a factor.

 

[Gerardf]

Baird reiterated their outperform US$ 338,-- SP target.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Absolutely not because we are not judging their strategy for the third quarter of the year, but the last quarter of the year. And more specifically the 3000 deliveries over production that you speculated on. That's a strategy from Q4 last year and therefore if they want to reproduce that, they need to follow the same strategy as last year. With deliveries trailing production by on average a month, that means September 2016 production should already have followed the same pattern as September 2015 and hence October 15 versus October 16 for deliveries is the proper yardstick.

European deliveries in October are defined by the production allocation in previous month - September. So regardless of the strategy in Q4, deliveries in October are defined by the regional allocation of production in September. As shown in my post there were virtually no European cars produced in September of 2016 as production was solely focused on NA cars. That was not the case in September of 2015 as indicated by European deliveries that were relatively steady throughout Q2 and October. So comparing October 2015 to October 2016 deliveries in Europe skews results because September production allocation in 2015 was much different than in 2016.

 

[Vitold]

-ntime

Im with you, holding all jan 2018 calls. Fundamentals feel so strong I have absolutely full confidence even in the face of this decline and will likely double down within next few days. HC for president is a no brainer so is the Merger going through. I will eat my socks on TV if Trump wins, as We all will die in WW3 nuclear wars anyway.

Current stock price is a gift, sentiment is rock bottom, after HC election we should see trend reversal and sell the rumor ending, buy the news starting. Tesla has cleared all production hurdles and on target 80k+ this year and M3 full ramp 2nd half 2017 which is ahead of schedule. plus TE is ramping up. the street will soon realize it makes no sense for a cash flow positive SCTY to drag TSLA to $187 from what should have been $240 or higher without the merger. I predict fireworks right after the merger with SP trending up before that date, barring any macro events.

So you don't worry about interest rate hike increasing cost of refinancing SolarCity short term debt?

 

[schonelucht]

European deliveries in October are defined by the production allocation in previous month - September. So regardless of the strategy in Q4, deliveries in October are defined by the regional allocation of production in September. As shown in my post there were virtually no European cars produced in September of 2016 as production was solely focused on NA cars. That was not the case in September of 2015 as indicated by European deliveries that were relatively steady throughout Q2 and October. So comparing October 2015 to October 2016 deliveries in Europe skews results because September production allocation in 2015 was much different than in 2016.

Nop. US production in Q3 stopped at 161xxx for the Model S on 9/15. But there are 400 inventory cars available in Europe with later VINs. The lack of deliveries to end users in Europe is not due to batching not allowing them to get there cars in Europe by October because otherwise they would not have been able to get the inventory there either. They would have been able to deliver approximately double the amount of Model S in Europe in October if those inventories had been custom builds for customers.

 

[winfield100]

@BobSk What was the company?

probably not this one, AMER, it changed it's symbol to AOL and did a 144x cumulative split (weeping)

 

[dmckinstry]

Well; Cubs snapped the 108 year drought. Maybe things are turning around.

Maybe true miracles can happen once a century.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Elon being interviewed by Cramer tomorrow